Equity Research

China: Two Sessions Comment 1: 2025 economic targets in line, while government bond issuance quota missed

2025 GDP growth, inflation, and official fiscal deficit targets are broadly in line with our and market expectations, while the quotas for central and local government special bond issuance missed expectations to some degree. In our view, this set of fiscal numbers implies a smaller-than-expected government funding arrangement for bank recapitalization and consumer goods trade-in program this year.

5 Mar 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton

  China Macro & Trading: "Two Sessions" First Take [Replay]

China Banks: Addressing the government's Rmb 0.5tn bank recapitalization plan

Based on its work report, the Chinese government plans to issue Rmb 0.5tn in special government bonds to recapitalize large SOE banks. This is higher than our previous estimate of an Rmb 0.24tn capital shortfall, but lower than the market's expectation of an Rmb 1tn capital injection. As a beneficiary of capital infusion, Buy-rated BOC (last close Rmb5.38/HK$4.41 for A/H share) is our top pick among China banks.

5 Mar 2025 | Research | Equity - Shuo Yang, Ph.D.

Also see: China Consumer Durables: Government to allocate Rmb300bn for consumer goods trade-in program in 2025

Thematic Stock Exposures: A physical AI ecosystem

Global tech heavyweights from Tesla to Nvidia are ramping up development of advanced AI technologies that enable machines to sense and interact with the physical world. In this special edition of Thematic Stock Exposures, we tap into the research of equity analysts across the globe to highlight companies that our teams believe are exposed to physical AI – from autonomous vehicles manufacturers and robot-makers to those providing the connective tissue between intelligent machines.

We present short summaries for a selection of stocks our analysts rate Buy, followed by a list of exposed stocks our teams rate Neutral or Sell. Please note this ecosystem is not exhaustive. We encourage you to explore the dedicated physical AI page for more coverage from our analyst teams and to read our previous Thematic Stock Exposures editions on the supply chains behind these novel technologies. We laid out the companies that make up AI's chip backbone in our semiconductor advances edition, those meeting AI power and networking needs in our data centers round-up, and global hyperscalers in our first AI collection.

 The ecosystem

3 Mar 2025 | Research | Aleksandra Gjorgievska and others