Americans’ dash for cash isn’t over yet.
美国人对现金的追逐还没有结束。
Investors have poured $126 billion into money-market funds since the Federal Reserve’s jumbo-size interest-rate cut. That sent assets in such funds to a record $6.76 trillion as of Tuesday, based on Crane Data going back to 1998.
投资者自美联储大幅降息以来已向货币市场基金注入了 1260 亿美元。根据克兰数据自 1998 年以来的数据，截至周二，此类基金的资产已达到创纪录的 6.76 万亿美元。
The trillions of dollars sitting in cash has been a fixation for big Wall Street investors and market watchers alike. They have been trying to divine what the sum will mean for the path of stocks, which have historically provided the highest returns in the long run.
数万亿现金一直是华尔街大型投资者和市场观察者的关注焦点。他们一直在试图推测这一总额将对股票的走势意味着什么，而股票在历史上长期提供了最高的回报。
Skeptics say some Americans have simply shifted their savings to higher-yielding money markets from traditional bank accounts—and they question the idea that a pile of cash is waiting on the sidelines to enter the market.
怀疑者表示，一些美国人只是将他们的储蓄从传统银行账户转移到了收益更高的货币市场——他们质疑有一笔现金在场外等待进入市场的想法。
Although interest rates are falling, many investors say they are still high enough that it makes sense to keep a fair amount of money in cash. Yields on money-market funds recently stood at 4.9%, after peaking at 5.2% in December.
尽管利率正在下降，但许多投资者表示，利率仍然足够高，因此保持相当数量的现金是合理的。货币市场基金的收益率最近为 4.9%，在 12 月曾达到 5.2%的峰值。
Stock valuations, meanwhile, are elevated, and investors are fretting that the economy is beginning to lose some of its momentum. Together, those factors make money-market funds and other defensive assets look like prudent investments.
股票估值 meanwhile，处于高位，投资者担心经济开始失去一些动能。这些因素共同使货币市场基金和其他防御性资产看起来像是明智的投资。
“People will be more comfortable holding a small percentage of their portfolio in cash,” says Laurie Brignac, chief investment officer and head of global liquidity at Invesco. “The retail investor is definitely voting with their dollars in terms of where they want to be.”
“人们会更愿意将其投资组合的一小部分以现金形式持有，”Invesco 的首席投资官兼全球流动性负责人 Laurie Brignac 表示。“散户投资者在他们希望投资的方向上，确实在用他们的钱投票。”
Institutional money-fund assets have typically increased by an average of 3.8% during months in which the Fed has trimmed interest rates, according to an analysis by Crane Data going back to 1990. The past five times the Fed began trimming interest rates, assets in such funds peaked about nine months after the first rate cut, according to Bank of America data since 1988.
根据 Crane Data 自 1990 年以来的分析，机构货币基金资产在美联储降息的月份通常平均增长 3.8%。根据自 1988 年以来的美国银行数据，美联储过去五次开始降息时，这类基金的资产在第一次降息后大约九个月达到峰值。
The Fed slashed its benchmark federal-funds rate by half a percentage point to a range between 4.75% and 5% at its September meeting, its first cut since 2020. Most officials penciled in cuts that would lower rates by at least a quarter point each at meetings in November and December.
美联储在 9 月份的会议上将基准联邦基金利率下调了 50 个基点，降至 4.75%至 5%的区间，这是自 2020 年以来的首次降息。大多数官员预计在 11 月和 12 月的会议上将至少再下调 25 个基点。
Brignac and other analysts say they don’t expect interest in money-market funds to subside until yields fall to about 3%. That was the case in the 1990s, when the Alan Greenspan-led Fed cut rates as the country faced a recession.
布里尼亚克和其他分析师表示，他们不认为货币市场基金的兴趣会在收益率降至约 3%之前减弱。这在 1990 年代是如此，当时以艾伦·格林斯潘为首的美联储在国家面临衰退时降息。
Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, says he still finds money markets attractive, with stocks remaining near records and government-bond yields falling.
杰夫·穆伦坎普，穆伦坎普基金的投资组合经理，表示他仍然认为货币市场具有吸引力，因为股票仍接近纪录，政府债券收益率下降。
He recently trimmed his position in Broadcom and poured the profit into money markets, bringing his cash allocations to roughly 15% of his portfolio. He started his career during the 2008 downturn and learned that it is wise to have a safety net.
他最近削减了在博通的持仓，并将利润投入货币市场，使他的现金配置大约占其投资组合的 15%。他在 2008 年经济衰退期间开始了自己的职业生涯，并了解到拥有安全网是明智的。
“It helps to have cash because then you can focus on, what is the opportunity in front of me for this cash, as opposed to focusing on, how bad is my stuff getting killed today,” Muhlenkamp says.
“拥有现金是有帮助的，因为这样你可以专注于，手头这笔现金的机会，而不是专注于，我的资产今天损失有多严重，”穆伦坎普说。
Allocations to cash have remained elevated since the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022 and hovered around 17% in August, according to data from the American Association of Individual Investors. They fell to 13.8% in January 2020, one of the lowest levels of the past decade, before bouncing to a 10-year high just months later when the Covid-19 pandemic crashed the economy.
根据美国个人投资者协会的数据，自 2022 年美联储开始加息以来，现金配置一直保持在高位，8 月份徘徊在 17%左右。它们在 2020 年 1 月降至 13.8%，是过去十年中最低的水平之一，随后在几个月后因新冠疫情导致经济崩溃而反弹至十年高点。
As Interest Rates Fall, Bonds Become a More Attractive Investment随着利率下降，债券成为更具吸引力的投资
Income generated from money markets surged to more than $27 billion in August, a record on an inflation-adjusted basis in Strategas Securities data going back to 1990. That has offered a boon to the wallets of many Americans that is now set to subside.
来自货币市场的收入在 8 月份激增至超过 270 亿美元，这是自 1990 年以来 Strategas Securities 数据中按通胀调整的记录。这为许多美国人的钱包带来了好处，但现在这一趋势即将减弱。
David Sadkin, a partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors who oversees investments for wealthy individuals, says he is keeping a close eye on yields to gauge when to move money into bonds. Treasurys maturing in three months recently yielded almost a percentage point more than those maturing in a year.
大卫·萨德金，贝尔艾尔投资顾问公司的合伙人，负责管理富裕个人的投资，他表示他正在密切关注收益率，以判断何时将资金转入债券。最近，三个月到期的国债收益率比一年到期的国债高出近一个百分点。
“For investors with short-term cash needs, the money funds are still attractive,” Sadkin says.
“对于有短期现金需求的投资者来说，货币基金仍然具有吸引力，”萨德金说。
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS 分享您的想法
What do you plan to do with your cash now that the Fed has cut rates? Join the conversation below.
你打算在美联储降息后如何处理你的现金？请在下面参与讨论。
Write to Gunjan Banerji at gunjan.banerji@wsj.com and Hardika Singh at hardika.singh@wsj.com
写信给 Gunjan Banerji，邮箱是 gunjan.banerji@wsj.com，以及 Hardika Singh，邮箱是 hardika.singh@wsj.com。
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