China Hasn’t Destroyed the Tech Sector. It’s Sharpened It
中国并没有摧毁科技行业。它变得尖锐
Beijing's crackdown has reshaped its innovation ambitions.
北京的打压重塑了其创新雄心。
A clear vision for tech self-sufficiency.
Photographer: STR/AFP/Getty Images
技术自给自足的清晰愿景。
摄影师：STR/AFP/Getty Images
To most Western observers, it would appear that China has driven its technology industry off a cliff.
在大多数西方观察家看来，中国似乎已经将其科技产业推下了悬崖。
The number of startups fell by 50,000 between the peak in 2018 and 2023, with this year on track to be even lower. The market capitalizations of the biggest tech companies, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd., have shrunk to the tune of hundreds of billions, and pale in comparison to US peers. There is no sign that the sector will ever rebound to what it was before a government crackdown that kicked off in late 2020, even as policymakers have signaled it’s over. Becoming a billionaire entrepreneur has become something to be feared, rather than celebrated.
在 2018 年至 2023 年的高峰期之间，初创公司的数量减少了 50,000 家，今年的规模可能会更低。包括阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司和腾讯控股有限公司在内的大型科技公司的市值已经缩水至数千亿美元，与美国同行相比相形见绌。没有迹象表明该行业会反弹到 2020 年底政府开始打击之前的水平，即使政策制定者已经表示它已经结束。成为亿万富翁企业家已成为一件令人恐惧的事情，而不是值得庆祝的事情。
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It’s easy for US policymakers to see this with vindication and yet more evidence of a superior tech landscape at home. And from their vantage point, they are correct: President Xi Jinping strangled a generation of entrepreneurs who could have benefited consumers and made investors a lot of money.
美国政策制定者很容易看到这一点，证明美国国内的科技环境非常出色。从他们的角度来看，他们是正确的：习近平主席扼杀了一代企业家，他们本可以让消费者受益，让投资者赚大钱。
But that doesn’t mean China’s innovation ecosystem is slowing. If anything, Xi has only sharpened its goal to focus on national clout and security in a way that could shift the global balance of power.
但这并不意味着中国的创新生态系统正在放缓。如果有的话，习只是将其目标更加明确，以一种可能改变全球力量平衡的方式专注于国家影响力和安全。
Beijing has given its tech industry something that Silicon Valley can only dream of: a mission. It may be easy for investors and free-market capitalists to scoff at the idea of innovation being driven by a purpose. But as the ongoing drama at OpenAI has laid bare — and as my colleague Parmy Olson has recently written — US tech entrepreneurs and workers alike have long been obsessed with this concept. And a vast majority of Gen Z say having a sense of purpose is an important factor for work. OpenAI started as a nonprofit research organization with the goal of creating artificial intelligence that “benefits all of humanity,” and ended up launching ChatGPT, spurring the global AI boom. As it evolved to a “capped-profit” and now is poised to become a for-profit company, it has seen an exodus of much of its founding team.
北京给了科技行业硅谷梦寐以求的东西：使命。投资者和自由市场资本家可能很容易嘲笑由目标驱动创新的想法。但是，正如我的同事帕米·奥尔森 （Parmy Olson） 最近所写的那样，正如 OpenAI 正在进行的戏剧性事件所暴露的那样，美国的科技企业家和员工长期以来一直痴迷于这个概念。绝大多数 Z 世代表示，拥有目标感是工作的一个重要因素。OpenAI 最初是一个非营利性研究组织，其目标是创造“造福全人类”的人工智能，并最终推出了 ChatGPT，刺激了全球人工智能的繁荣。随着它发展成为一家“有上限的利润”，现在准备成为一家营利性公司，它的大部分创始团队都出现了流失。
Many Chinese, meanwhile, now believe the world is less secure than it was five years ago, and see tensions with Washington as one of the most pressing concerns. This existential threat of losing to the US is being used as a driving force for China’s tech ambitions.
与此同时，许多中国人现在认为世界不如五年前安全，并将与华盛顿的紧张关系视为最紧迫的问题之一。这种输给美国的生存威胁正被用作中国科技雄心的驱动力。
Fresh off dismantling the get-rich-quick era, Xi has doubled down on a push for tech-driven “high quality growth” as well as “common prosperity.” The government has laid out a vision for a technological future where China leads in strategic areas such as artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and green industries like solar and electric vehicles. This is already reaping dividends as exports of batteries, electric cars and solar panels hit records.
刚刚打破快速致富时代的习加倍努力推动技术驱动的“高质量增长”和“共同富裕”。政府制定了技术未来的愿景，中国在人工智能、先进制造以及太阳能和电动汽车等绿色产业等战略领域处于领先地位。随着电池、电动汽车和太阳能电池板的出口创下纪录，这已经获得了回报。
The US may currently have a lead in advanced technologies such as AI, but China is progressing rapidly with a laser-sharp focus to close that gap. New research suggests that the Communist Party’s top-down determination to dominate these global markets is driving innovation at a faster pace than thought, and many Chinese tech firms will likely equal or surpass Western companies within roughly a decade.
美国目前可能在人工智能等先进技术方面处于领先地位，但中国正在迅速发展，以激光般的专注力缩小这一差距。新的研究表明，共产党自上而下主导这些全球市场的决心正在以超乎想象的速度推动创新，许多中国科技公司可能会在大约十年内追平或超过西方公司。
Washington seems acutely aware that Beijing’s tech prowess is posing a threat, and has reacted with a slew of export measures to prevent China from accessing cutting-edge AI chips and manufacturing equipment. But these policies have further spurred Beijing’s commitment to its tech self-sufficiency goals. A recent teardown of Huawei’s Xinchuang laptop shows that the country is making rapid progress on this front, with most of the important chips in the device coming from Chinese groups.
华盛顿似乎敏锐地意识到北京的技术实力正在构成威胁，并采取了一系列出口措施，以阻止中国获得尖端的人工智能芯片和制造设备。但这些政策进一步刺激了北京对其技术自给自足目标的承诺。最近华为信创笔记本电脑的拆解表明，该国在这方面正在迅速发展，该设备中的大部分重要芯片都来自中国集团。
More recently, Beijing has been supporting this push by asking tech firms and electrical vehicle makers to buy more locally produced chips. This has provided a market for domestic semiconductor firms, and also opened sources of revenue that can be used for research and development as well as expansion.
最近，北京一直在支持这一举措，要求科技公司和电动汽车制造商购买更多本地生产的芯片。这为国内半导体公司提供了一个市场，也开辟了可用于研发和扩张的收入来源。
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The US innovation ecosystem, driven by entrepreneurship, has spurred decades of rapid economic growth and consumer benefits. But after startups became the biggest companies in the world, the incentive to experiment and invent something truly new became obfuscated. It’s no longer innovate or die, but create shareholder value or perish. This has encouraged the brightest minds in Silicon Valley to focus on short-term returns rather than novel breakthroughs. It has turned once-exciting product launch events into boring updates.
在企业家精神的推动下，美国的创新生态系统刺激了数十年的快速增长和消费者利益。但是，在初创公司成为世界上最大的公司之后，尝试和发明真正新事物的动力变得模糊不清。它不再是创新或消亡，而是创造股东价值或灭亡。这鼓励了硅谷最聪明的人专注于短期回报，而不是新的突破。它已将曾经令人兴奋的产品发布活动变成了无聊的更新。
China’s use of national interests as an incentive for innovation isn’t as far off from an all-too-American playbook that predated the US tech revolution. Like the space race during the US-Soviet Union Cold War that paved the way for Silicon Valley, many of these developments may end up having a dual use, providing downstream benefits to consumers.
中国利用国家利益作为创新的激励措施，这与美国科技革命之前的美国式剧本相去不远。就像美苏冷战期间为硅谷铺平道路的太空竞赛一样，其中许多开发项目最终可能会具有双重用途，为消费者提供下游利益。
It’s too soon for US policymakers to look at the decimation of China’s internet and consumer tech sectors as signs of victory in this Cold War. Washington would be wise to foster purpose-driven research, whether at universities or independent labs, rather than leave America’s boldest ambitions to the whims of Big Tech interests.
美国政策制定者将中国互联网和消费科技行业的毁灭视为这场冷战胜利的标志还为时过早。华盛顿明智的做法是促进以目标为导向的研究，无论是在大学还是独立实验室，而不是将美国最大胆的雄心留给大型科技公司的利益。
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
更多来自 Bloomberg Opinion：
- China’s Social Media Spurs Real-World Fury: Catherine Thorbecke
中国的社交媒体马刺真实世界的愤怒：凯瑟琳·索贝克 - How the US Let China Become the Solar Superpower: David Fickling
美国如何让中国成为太阳能超级大国：David Fickling - Cold War 2.0 Is Casting a Nuclear Shadow: Karishma Vaswani
冷战 2.0 正在投下核阴影：Karishma Vaswani
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