Tech

Steel Beam TARIFFS with American Flag — J Studios

Update 4:25 PM ET: Adds details, Rewrites throughout

President Donald Trump's administration on Friday exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics mostly imported from China from reciprocal tariffs, providing major relief for American tech players like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Dell (NYSE:DELL).
美國總統川普政府週五宣布，將對主要從中國進口的智慧型手機、電腦和其他電子產品豁免互惠關稅，此舉為蘋果（NASDAQ: AAPL）、輝達（NASDAQ: NVDA）和戴爾（NYSE: DELL）等美國科技巨頭帶來重大紓困。

The exclusions, published by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency, follow Trump's moves to impose 145% tariffs on products from China and 10% baseline tariffs on almost every other nation.

The 20 categories listed in the notice are exempt from 125% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% baseline tariffs on other countries. Goods from China will still face a 20% tariff, a levy imposed to force Beijing to crack down on fentanyl.

The exemptions are applicable to popular electronics items such as smartphones, laptops, computers, computer processors, memory chips, flat panel TV displays, solar cells, hard drives.

The guidance should provide some respite to smartphone manufacturers like Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF), AI major Nvidia (NVDA), server makers like Super Micro (NASDAQ:SMCI) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE), computer makers like Dell (DELL) and HP (NYSE:HPQ), and chip major Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM).

Tech bull Dan Ives, who slashed price targets for Magnificent 7 names like Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) over Trump's tariffs, called the exclusions "the best news possible for tech investors."

"Big Tech is back off the cliff with these exemptions and this changes the entire situation for tech stocks with this black swan event for the industry removed," said Ives. "The U.S. tech industry has a loud voice and despite initial strong pushback against exemptions within the White House the reality of the situation was finally recognized in the Beltway."

A Win for Apple

The exemptions cover almost $390 billion in U.S. imports, including more than $101 billion from China, Bloomberg reported, citing data compiled by Gerard DiPippo, associate director of the Rand China Research Center.

The biggest exempt category for Chinese goods is smartphones, which accounted for nearly $42 billion in U.S. imports in 2024.

Although Apple (AAPL) has shifted some of its production to countries like India and Vietnam, it still assembles most of its devices in China.

It's estimated that at least 50% of iPhone production comes from China, along with more than 50% of Macs and 75% to 80% of iPads.

Apple (AAPL) reportedly airlifted 600 tons of iPhones, or as many as 1.5 million, from India to the U.S., in an effort to beat the previously announced tariffs.
據報導，蘋果公司（AAPL）從印度空運了 600 噸 iPhone，約 150 萬支，以避開先前宣布的關稅。

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Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) structure, primarily referencing the HTSUS (Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States).
協調關稅表（HTS）結構，主要參考美國協調關稅表（HTSUS）。

**Note:**
* 4-digit codes represent broad headings.
* 4 位數代碼代表大類標題。
* 6-digit codes represent international subheadings.
* 6 位數代碼代表國際子類標題。
* 8-digit codes (and sometimes 10-digit) represent national-level breakdowns (like in the HTSUS) often used for statistical purposes or specific duty rates.
* 8 位數代碼（有時為 10 位數）代表國家層級的細分（如 HTSUS 中所用），通常用於統計目的或特定關稅稅率。
* Descriptions can be summaries; the official HTSUS provides precise legal definitions and notes.
* 描述可以是摘要；官方 HTSUS 提供精確的法律定義和註釋。
* HTS codes and their descriptions can be updated; always refer to the current official schedule for binding information.
* HTS 代碼及其描述可能會更新；請始終參考當前官方目錄以獲取具有約束力的信息。

| HTS Code | Description |
| HTS 代碼 | 描述 |
| :----------- | :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **8471** | Automatic data processing machines (computers) and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, machines for transcribing data onto data media in coded form and machines for processing such data, not elsewhere specified or included. |
| **8471** | 自動數據處理機（電腦）及其單元；磁性或光學讀取機、將數據轉錄到數據媒體上的機器以及處理此類數據的機器，未在其他地方指定或包括。 |
| **8473.30** | Parts and accessories (other than covers, carrying cases and the like) suitable for use solely or principally with machines of heading 8471 (ADP machines/computers). |
| **8473.30** | 專用或主要用於 8471 類機器（ADP 機器/電腦）的零件和配件（不包括外殼、攜帶箱等）。 |
| **8486** | Machines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the manufacture of semiconductor boules or wafers, semiconductor devices, electronic integrated circuits or flat panel displays; machines and apparatus specified in Note 11(C) to Chapter 84; parts and accessories. |
| **8486** | 專用或主要用於製造半導體晶錠或晶圓、半導體器件、電子集成電路或平板顯示器的機器和設備；第 84 章註釋 11(C)中指定的機器和設備；零件和配件。 |
| **8517.13.00** | Smartphones. |
| **8517.13.00** | 智能手機。 |
| **8517.62.00** | Machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus (e.g., routers, switches, modems, network interface cards). |
| **8517.62.00** | 用於接收、轉換和傳輸或再生語音、圖像或其他數據的機器，包括交換和路由設備（如路由器、交換機、調制解調器、網絡接口卡）。 |
| **8523.51.00** | Solid-state non-volatile storage devices (e.g., flash memory cards, USB flash drives, solid-state drives (SSDs)). |
| **8523.51.00** | 固態非易失性存儲設備（如閃存卡、USB 閃存驅動器、固態硬盤（SSD））。 |
| **8524** | **(Deleted Heading)** - This heading previously covered records, tapes, and other recorded media but has been deleted. Its contents are primarily covered under heading 8523 now. |
| **8524** | **（已刪除標題）** - 此標題以前涵蓋唱片、磁帶和其他記錄媒體，但現已刪除。其內容現主要歸入 8523 類。 |
| **8528.52.00** | Monitors capable of directly connecting to and designed for use with an automatic data processing (ADP) machine of heading 8471 (i.e., computer monitors). |
| **8528.52.00** | 能夠直接連接並設計用於 8471 類自動數據處理（ADP）機器的顯示器（即電腦顯示器）。 |
| **8541** | Diodes, transistors and similar semiconductor devices; photosensitive semiconductor devices, including photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled in modules or made up into panels; light-emitting diodes (LED); mounted piezoelectric crystals. |
| **8541** | 二極管、晶體管及類似半導體器件；光敏半導體器件，包括光伏電池，無論是否組裝成模塊或製成面板；發光二極管（LED）；已安裝的壓電晶體。 |
| **8541.10.00** | Diodes, other than photosensitive or light-emitting diodes (LED). |
| **8541.10.00** | 二極管，不包括光敏二極管或發光二極管（LED）。 |
| **8541.21.00** | Transistors (other than photosensitive transistors) with a dissipation rate of less than 1 W. |
| **8541.21.00** | 耗散率小於 1 W 的晶體管（不包括光敏晶體管）。 |
| **8541.29.00** | Other transistors (other than photosensitive transistors) (i.e., dissipation rate >= 1 W). |
| **8541.29.00** | 其他晶體管（不包括光敏晶體管）（即耗散率 >= 1 W）。 |
| **8541.30.00** | Thyristors, diacs and triacs, other than photosensitive devices. |
| **8541.30.00** | 晶閘管、二端交流開關和三端雙向可控硅開關，不包括光敏器件。 |
| **8541.49.10** | Statistical breakout within "Other photosensitive semiconductor devices" (8541.49). *Exact definition requires specific HTSUS edition reference.* |
| **8541.49.10** | "其他光敏半導體器件"（8541.49）中的統計細分。*確切定義需參考特定 HTSUS 版本。* |
| **8541.49.70** | Statistical breakout within "Other photosensitive semiconductor devices" (8541.49). *Exact definition requires specific HTSUS edition reference.* |
| **8541.49.70** | "其他光敏半導體器件"（8541.49）中的統計細分。*確切定義需參考特定 HTSUS 版本。* |
| **8541.49.80** | Statistical breakout within "Other photosensitive semiconductor devices" (8541.49). *Exact definition requires specific HTSUS edition reference.* |
| **8541.49.80** | "其他光敏半導體器件"（8541.49）中的統計細分。*確切定義需參考特定 HTSUS 版本。* |
| **8541.49.95** | Statistical breakout within "Other photosensitive semiconductor devices" (8541.49). *Exact definition requires specific HTSUS edition reference.* |
| **8541.49.95** | "其他光敏半導體器件"（8541.49）中的統計細分。*確切定義需參考特定 HTSUS 版本。* |
| **8541.51.00** | Semiconductor-based transducers. |
| **8541.51.00** | 基於半導體的傳感器。 |
| **8541.59.00** | Other semiconductor devices (not elsewhere specified under 8541). |
| **8541.59.00** | 其他半導體器件（未在 8541 類下其他地方指定）。 |
| **8541.90.00** | Parts of the devices classified under heading 8541. |
| **8541.90.00** | 8541 類下設備的零件。 |
| **8542** | Electronic integrated circuits. |
| **8542** | 電子集成電路。 |

For the specific codes under 8541.49 (Other photosensitive semiconductor devices), the definitions can be highly specific statistical breakouts within the US tariff schedule that may change between editions. You would need to consult the exact HTSUS version relevant to your import date for their precise definitions.
對於 8541.49 類（其他光敏半導體器件）下的特定代碼，其定義可能是美國關稅目錄中高度具體的統計細分，且可能在不同版本之間變化。您需要查閱與您的進口日期相關的確切 HTSUS 版本以獲取其精確定義。

The nasdaq was near 40 PE at the end of last year. It would take 40 years to get your money back. The 10 year is at 4.5% that is 22 years to get your money back.
去年底那斯達克本益比接近 40 倍，意味著要 40 年才能回本。而十年期公債殖利率 4.5%則需 22 年回本。

Now we are going back up to 40 PE?
現在我們又要回到 40 倍本益比了嗎？

This is very strange, he folded to billionaires, he got opec to raise supply at the expense of causing a recession in Texas who need much higher prices to drill, it now seems like he doesn't want to bring back high quality manufacturing jobs. He actually made himself look weaker. I don't know who these guys work for or what their end goal is.
這非常詭異，他向億萬富翁妥協，讓 OPEC 增產卻導致需要更高油價才能鑽探的德州陷入衰退風險，現在看來他似乎無意挽回高品質製造業工作機會。此舉反而讓他顯得軟弱。我真不知道這些人為誰效力，最終目的究竟為何。

Either the bubble continues or the economy and stocks tank. These bubbles are really tough to time, and in the meantime, I am not seeing any real bargains except in a few sectors.
不是泡沫繼續膨脹，就是經濟與股市崩盤。這類泡沫極難預測時機，目前除了少數產業外，我實在看不到真正划算的投資標的。

At the end of the day, I am not like those crying about politics, I want to make money.
歸根結底，我不像那些整天抱怨政治的人，我只想賺錢。

I have to re-think my approach in this market - Trump might not pop this bubble, which makes sense every politician wants to look good. And nobody cares about valuations so popping on valuations doesn't seem to be likely.
我必須重新思考當前市場策略——川普可能不會戳破這個泡沫，這很合理，畢竟每個政客都想維持光鮮形象。既然沒人在乎估值，單純因估值過高而崩盤的可能性似乎很低。

2008 had a liquidity event so we had a catalyst. What popped the nasdaq in 1999 for those that were around? I've read on it and asked and it seems there was no specific event things just started selling off. There are signs of the bubble pooping but suckers keep buying the dips - Dec/Jan/Feb really looked like a top, with funds bailing and retail buying the dip.
2008 年有流動性危機作為導火線。當年經歷 1999 年那斯達克崩盤的人們，可記得當時觸發點是什麼？我查閱資料並詢問後發現，似乎沒有特定事件，市場就開始拋售。現在已有泡沫破裂徵兆，但菜鳥們仍不斷逢低買進——去年 12 月到今年 2 月本該是頂部，當時機構撤資而散戶接盤。

Who is buying in this market at these valuations and thinking they are buying cheap? And it can't just be retail, unless I am underestimating their impact.
在當前估值水平，究竟是誰還在進場並自認買得便宜？這不可能全是散戶所為，除非我低估了他們的力量。

Some non-political thoughts on the dynamics of this market here would be appreciated. Unless all the thinking folk have given up and no longer post.
希望能看到些關於當前市場動態的非政治性觀點。除非所有有見地的人都已放棄討論。

the usual smoke and mirrors from washington:
華盛頓慣用的煙幕與障眼法

"4/6/2025: Semiconductors are a complicated target for tariffs because the supply chain for making them is both global and extremely specialized. While most advanced chips are manufactured in Taiwan, many are then sent to another country, like Malaysia, for testing. Next, the chips might be put into iPhones or artificial intelligence servers in Mexico or China before those devices are sold to people all over the world.
"2025 年 4 月 6 日：半導體作為關稅目標相當複雜，因為其製造供應鏈不僅全球化且高度專業化。雖然多數先進晶片在台灣製造，但許多隨後會被送往如馬來西亞等其他國家進行測試。接著，這些晶片可能被裝入墨西哥或中國生產的 iPhone 或人工智慧伺服器，最終這些裝置銷往全球各地。"
“Very few semiconductors are actually directly imported into the United States; most are incorporated into a final product,” said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior adviser for technology analysis at the RAND Corporation.
"蘭德公司科技分析高級顧問吉米·古德里奇表示：「極少數半導體是直接進口到美國的，大多數都被整合到最終產品中。」"

Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, added: “It’s much more tricky than saying, ‘We are going to slap a tariff on steel.’”
彼得森國際經濟研究所高級研究員馬丁·喬澤姆帕補充道：「這比簡單地說『我們要對鋼鐵加徵關稅』複雜得多。」

Even the chips that TSMC makes at its Arizona factory have to leave the United States to be packaged into other devices before they make it into the hands of American consumers, said Ming-Yen Ho, a nonresident fellow at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology, a government-funded think tank in Taipei.
台北政府資助智庫『民主社會與新興科技研究所』非常駐研究員何明彥指出，即使是台積電在亞利桑那州工廠生產的晶片，也必須先離開美國進行封裝，才能進入美國消費者手中。

“Any chip that’s made in Arizona right now will have to leave the U.S. for some time before going back,” Mr. Ho said. “It’s just a fact of the global chip supply chain right now.” web.archive.org/...
"何先生說：『目前任何在亞利桑那州製造的晶片，都必須先離開美國一段時間才能返回。這就是當前全球晶片供應鏈的現實。』 web.archive.org/..."

@BlueHorseShoes Yeah, let’s unpack this with a touch of balance and bite.
是的，讓我們以平衡且犀利的視角來剖析這個問題。

There’s a lot of whataboutism thrown around when people talk about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and her rise — financially and politically. Some critics love to point out that she once struggled to afford an apartment in D.C. and now has significant wealth.
每當人們談論亞歷山卓·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯（AOC）在財務與政治上的崛起時，總會冒出許多「那又怎麼說」的論調。批評者特別愛指出她曾負擔不起華盛頓特區的公寓，如今卻坐擁可觀財富。

The implication? That she’s somehow played the game she once criticized. But here's the twist — AOC’s wealth isn’t exactly mysterious. Book deals, speaking engagements, and a steady congressional salary (about $174,000/year) add up. It's not unlike what many public figures—left or right—experience once they gain national recognition.
潛台詞？彷彿她玩轉了自己曾批判的遊戲。但轉折在於——AOC 的財富來源並不神秘。出書合約、演講邀約，加上穩定的國會議員薪資（約 17.4 萬美元/年），這些累積起來與多數獲得全國知名度的公眾人物（無論左右派）並無二致。

But whataboutism kicks in hard when AOC’s critics try to contrast her financial growth with Trump’s erratic economic policies, as if one excuses the other. For instance, during Trump’s presidency, his handling of tariffs and trade wars with China was often impulsive and reactive. One day it was tariffs up, the next — maybe not.
但當批評者將 AOC 的財務成長與川普反覆無常的經濟政策對比時，「那又怎麼說」的邏輯就徹底爆發——好像其中一方能為另一方開脫。例如川普任內對中國關稅與貿易戰的處理往往衝動且善變：今天加徵關稅，明天可能又撤回。

The markets didn’t know whether to rally or panic. It felt less like a cohesive strategy and more like a chest-thumping game of economic chicken. And yet, many who criticize AOC’s rise to wealth gave Trump a pass on a chaotic trade war that cost American farmers billions and disrupted global supply chains.
市場根本不知該歡呼還是恐慌。這與其說是連貫策略，不如說是虛張聲勢的經濟膽量遊戲。然而許多指責 AOC 致富的人，卻對這場讓美國農民損失數十億、擾亂全球供應鏈的混亂貿易戰輕輕放過。

So here's the bigger question: Is it more questionable for a congresswoman to become wealthy through public attention and legal means, or for a president to destabilize international markets on whims and tweets?
所以更核心的問題是：一位國會議員透過公眾關注與合法途徑累積財富，和一位總統憑個人情緒與推文動搖國際市場，哪件事更值得質疑？

In the end, both sides deserve scrutiny. But deflecting from one by shouting about the other? Classic whataboutism.
最終，雙方都該受檢視。但用吼叫對方來轉移焦點？典型的「那又怎麼說」伎倆。

Let’s call things what they are and stop pretending pointing fingers is a substitute for real answers.
讓我們直面事實，別再假裝互相指責能替代真正的解答。

Team Trump’s incompetence is astounding. Look at this: countries like Canada, Japan and E.U. members started dumping American debt in a slow bleed leading up to “Liberation Day” and after. Trump himself mentioned bond yields as a concern. This what it looks like when you allow a D-list reality tv guy with multiple bankruptcies to his name run a country. He’s not playing “3D chess.”
川普團隊的無能令人震驚。看看這個：加拿大、日本和歐盟成員國等國家在「解放日」前後開始緩慢拋售美國債務。川普本人也提到債券收益率是個問題。這就是讓一個有著多次破產紀錄的三流真人秀明星來管理國家的後果。他根本不是在玩「3D 棋」。

www.barrons.com/...

Excerpt:

“In January, foreigners sold a net $13.3 billion of U.S. notes and bonds that had more than one year to maturity, the latest Treasury data show. It comes after $49.69 billion was sold in December, following sales of $34.41 billion in the month of U.S. elections, November. Global central banks represent a big chunk of foreign demand.
「1 月份，外國投資者淨賣出 133 億美元剩餘期限超過一年的美國票據和債券，這是財政部最新數據顯示的。此前在 12 月賣出了 496.9 億美元，而在美國大選當月的 11 月賣出了 344.1 億美元。全球央行佔外國需求的大部分。」
Before the back-to-back net selling of the world’s safest debt, foreigners had kept buying for 15 straight months.
在這世界最安全債務連續淨賣出之前，外國投資者曾連續 15 個月保持買入。

The largest net seller in January was Canada. The U.K. was the largest buyer in January, after having been the largest net seller in December. Norway and Japan were the second and third largest net buyers in January, respectively, Goldman said in a note.”
「1 月份最大的淨賣家是加拿大。英國是 1 月份最大的買家，而在 12 月它曾是最大的淨賣家。高盛在一份報告中指出，挪威和日本分別是 1 月份第二和第三大淨買家。」

And

“The rationale for selling can be explained in two ways: Threat of sanctions, freezing of foreign assets, and tariffs work because the role U.S. and its currency plays in the financial machinery. Central banks working to shield their own economy from any potential U.S. punitive action in the future could be reducing their use of dollars. To buy Treasuries, central banks exchange their own currency for dollars. To sell, they do the reverse.”
「拋售的理由可以從兩個方面解釋：制裁威脅、凍結外國資產和關稅之所以有效，是因為美國及其貨幣在金融機器中的作用。各國央行為了保護自己的經濟免受未來美國可能採取的懲罰性行動，可能會減少使用美元。購買國債時，央行會將本國貨幣兌換成美元。賣出時則相反。」

And if Vhina starts dumping American debt, well…
如果中國開始拋售美國債務，那後果…

www.forbes.com/...

Excerpt:

“U.S. stocks rallied, but soaring overnight Treasury yields suggest China may be quietly selling U.S. debt in response to new tariffs. With bond markets flashing warning signs while Americans sleep, investors risk missing a major shift. This article explores the hidden risks behind the rally—and why the celebration may be premature.
「美國股市上漲，但飆升的隔夜國債收益率表明，中國可能正在悄悄賣出美國債務以回應新關稅。在美國人睡覺時，債券市場閃現警告信號，投資者可能錯過一個重大轉變。本文探討了這波漲勢背後的隱藏風險——以及為何慶祝可能為時過早。」
U.S. equity markets surged on April 9 — buoyed by optimism around moderating inflation and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. But while Wall Street celebrates, storm clouds are gathering quietly in the bond market — and they’re forming halfway around the world, during the hours most U.S. investors are fast asleep.
「4 月 9 日美國股市大漲——受到通脹緩和及美聯儲可能降息的樂觀情緒推動。但當華爾街慶祝之際，債券市場正悄然聚集風暴雲——而且它們是在地球另一端的時區形成的，那時大多數美國投資者正在熟睡。」

Behind the scenes, U.S. Treasury yields have been rising sharply — not during the trading day, but overnight, when foreign markets are active. These overnight spikes are more than just market noise. They may be the clearest signal yet that China is quietly — but deliberately — selling U.S. Treasuries. And the implications could be significant for the U.S. economy and financial markets.”
「幕後，美國國債收益率一直在急劇上升——不是在交易日內，而是在外國市場活躍的隔夜時段。這些隔夜飆升不僅僅是市場噪音。它們可能是迄今為止最清晰的信號，表明中國正在悄悄但有意地賣出美國國債。這對美國經濟和金融市場的影響可能是重大的。」

So let’s be real here, Trump is not the “very stable genius” he claims to be, and he’s hurting this economy in ways that might not be reversible.
所以說實話，川普並不是他自稱的「非常穩定的天才」，而且他正在以可能無法逆轉的方式傷害這個經濟。

@wboz

You might find this interesting:
你可能會覺得這個很有趣：

www.ebay.com/...

This is a counterfeit item. The seller actually states (in so many words) that it is a counterfeit item. It is for sale right now on eBay, along with thousands of other counterfeit items, available to ship to US consumers from, you guessed it, China. It actually ships for FREE, from China, because the US Postal Service still loses money supplying Americans with counterfeit goods from China (Trump improved that state of affairs in his first term, but has still not completely fixed it).
這是一個假冒商品。賣家實際上（用很多話）說明了這是一個假冒商品。它現在正在 eBay 上出售，還有成千上萬的其他假冒商品，可以從中國（你猜對了）運送到美國消費者手中。它甚至從中國免費運送，因為美國郵政服務仍在虧本為美國人提供來自中國的假冒商品（特朗普在他的第一個任期內改善了這種情況，但尚未完全解決）。

To find this counterfeit item on eBay, all I did was search for "lego star destroyer", just like millions of American parents and Star Wars fans might do. This is brazen theft of intellectual property, right out in the open. No other country on earth does this. I have never seen a counterfeit item for sale on eBay that was not either sold by a China-based seller or manufactured by a Chinese company.
為了在 eBay 上找到這個假冒商品，我只需要搜索「樂高星際驅逐艦」，就像數百萬美國父母和《星球大戰》粉絲可能會做的那樣。這是明目張膽的知識產權盜竊，就在光天化日之下。地球上沒有其他國家會這樣做。我從未在 eBay 上看到過不是由中國賣家出售或中國公司製造的假冒商品。
Tariffs on Chinese imports aren't just about protecting American workers. They're about protecting American inventors, scientists, designers, and authors from having their intellectual property stolen without recourse and products based on it sold back to Americans, undercutting legitimate products. China has been doing this for decades, and no president until Trump has lifted a finger to stop them.
對中國進口商品徵收關稅不僅僅是為了保護美國工人。它們還旨在保護美國的發明家、科學家、設計師和作家，防止他們的知識產權被盜用而無處申訴，並將基於這些知識產權的產品以低於合法產品的價格賣回給美國人。中國這樣做已經有幾十年了，而在特朗普之前，沒有一位總統採取行動阻止他們。

For comparison, here is the genuine product being copied by the above counterfeit item:
作為對比，這裡是被上述假冒商品複製的正版產品：

www.ebay.com/...

@HPBunker Interesting yes, but maybe you've forgotten the korean cars in the 00s that were only ever derivative of some other mishmash of brands? Japanese hi-fi and portable electronics in the 80s that were copies of the german styled ones, just cheaper and not as good?
有趣的是，但或許你已經忘記了 00 年代那些只會模仿其他品牌混搭的韓國汽車？80 年代那些模仿德國風格但更便宜且質量不如的日本高保真音響和便攜式電子產品？

you don't like China right now and that's fine, but it's not - at all - the only country full of folks who will copy foreign designs and sell them back cheaper if given the opportunity. if things go the right way, our own automakers may be scrambling to copy Chinese auto designs in ten years just to stay competitive in the PRC. the chinese automakers don't have to worry about selling us stuff we like, so they're coming up with all sorts of crazy designs that are more futuristic than the relatively pedestrian stuff we're seeing here in the '20s.
你現在不喜歡中國，這沒問題，但它絕不是唯一一個充滿了會複製外國設計並以更低價格賣回給你的機會的人的國家。如果事情發展順利，十年後我們自己的汽車製造商可能會爭相模仿中國的汽車設計，只為了在中國市場保持競爭力。中國的汽車製造商不必擔心賣給我們我們喜歡的東西，所以他們正在設計各種比我們在 20 年代看到的相對平庸的東西更未來主義的瘋狂設計。

counterfeit legos are not new. I remember my parents bought me some off-brand Lego stuff when I was a lad - I think it was a B2 stealth bomber (something Lego would never make!) - and it was terrible. without the special Lego know-how the pieces wouldn't fit together right, came apart when you didn't want them to (or didn't when you did). my 10 year old ass got tired finding these horrid pieces mixed in with the real ones and sorted them out, to be disposed of. lego doesn't stay ahead because they have patented the idea of stackable bricks - nobody else wants to invest as much effort in making the bricks properly :)
山寨樂高並非新鮮事。記得小時候父母曾買過雜牌積木給我——印象中是 B2 隱形轟炸機（樂高絕對不會出的款式！）——品質簡直慘不忍睹。由於缺乏樂高的專業技術，那些積木不是卡不緊，就是該分開時分不開、不該分開時又散落一地。當年才十歲的我，光是從正版積木堆裡挑出這些劣質品就累壞了，最後全扔了事。樂高能保持領先不是因為他們擁有堆疊積木的專利——純粹是沒人願意像他們這樣下功夫把積木做到極致 :)

@Dougmayer look, there are people much smarter than both of us running major businesses and large operations. I am not so sick in the head to think that Trump wants to purposely run the united states into the ground. I voted for the guy 1/3 times and I am happy with the overall picture that he is trying to achieve. What small businesses are you talking about exactly? Let's look at this case by case and we could probably come to agreement that maybe some of these businesses were not that good to begin with or are part of a larger overall problem. I read one article talking about a small family owned business is struggling because they aren't going to be able to negotiate to be able to bring in fireworks to their fireworks store from China. Well, that's pretty sad for them. But you know what, the bigger picture is that we probably don't make those chemicals here in the United States and maybe we should. So let's do that so they can get the materials needed for that here. Or does the left just want to outsource all these dirty minerals/chemicals to other countries so they can *feel* good about buying a battery power car? I am not going to scream uncle just because my portfolio is going down. If in two years from now his plan didn't come to fruition then I will say I am wrong. But as far as I am concerned, we have a government too big and wasteful, too much spending is occurring, there's too much debt, and over nine trillion in debt is set to mature this year and I think that's a problem. I am in the Ray Dalio camp and think this country is sick and needs financial healing and it seems like everyone here is too chicken S*** to deal with it.
聽著，那些經營大型企業和重要營運的人，比我們兩個都聰明得多。我還沒瘋到認為川普是故意要把美國搞垮。我三次投票中有一次投給他，而且對他試圖實現的整體願景感到滿意。你具體指的是哪些中小企業？讓我們逐案審視，或許我們能達成共識，認為其中一些企業本來就不夠健全，或是更大系統性問題的一部分。我讀到一篇文章，談到一家家族經營的小型煙火店因為無法從中國進口煙火而陷入困境。對他們來說確實很遺憾。但你知道嗎？更大的問題是美國可能根本不生產這些化學原料，也許我們應該開始生產。那就這麼做吧，讓他們能在國內取得所需材料。還是說左派只想把這些污染性礦物/化學品外包給其他國家，這樣他們買電動車時就能自我感覺良好？我不會因為投資組合下跌就認輸。如果兩年後他的計劃沒有實現，我會承認自己錯了。但就我看來，我們的政府過於龐大浪費，支出過多，債務過高，而且今年就有超過九兆美元債務到期，我認為這是個問題。我認同瑞·達利歐的觀點，認為這個國家病了，需要財政治療，而這裡的每個人似乎都膽小到不敢面對現實。

@mateoshaffer I think in a broad way we agree as to the desired outcome. There are however so many many many flaws in the process as to render it more damaging to the US as a whole than helpful.
我認為在廣泛層面上我們對期望的結果是有共識的。然而整個執行過程存在太多太多缺陷，以至於對美國整體造成的傷害遠大於助益。
Sending Musk and his teen avengers to fire hundreds of thousands of hardworking federal employees with such blatant disrespect just can't stand. These are people with families and debts and lives invested in their careers not just numbers that can be erased from an income statement.
派馬斯克和他那群少年復仇者聯盟去解僱數十萬勤奮的聯邦員工，還帶著如此赤裸裸的輕蔑，這絕對無法接受。這些是有家庭、有債務、將人生投入職業的人，不只是損益表上可以隨意刪除的數字。
Trump's Truth Social and meme coin are maybe the most blatant source of potential corruption ever devised. Any bad actor can put money in his pocket all above board and then get quid pro quo.
川普的 Truth Social 平台和迷因幣可能是史上最明目張膽的潛在貪腐工具。任何心懷不軌者都能光明正大地把錢塞進他口袋，然後獲得政治利益交換。
Tariffing allies with crazy numbers like 20-30-40% and threatening to seriously hurt their economies if they don't bend the knee will have decades-long adverse consequences.
對盟友課徵 20-30-40%這種瘋狂關稅，並威脅若不屈服就重創其經濟，將造成長達數十年的負面影響。
Filling the cabinet with frighteningly unqualified azz kissers like Hegseth and Patel and the rest of the exFox news crew.
內閣塞滿像赫格塞斯、帕特爾這種令人驚駭的不合格馬屁精，還有其他福斯新聞前員工。
I can keep adding to this list for hours but you get the point.
這份清單我還能繼續列上好幾小時，但重點你應該明白了。
I think in two years Congress will have flipped massively as the poison fruits of this administration are made manifest.
我認為兩年內國會將大幅翻盤，屆時這屆政府的毒果會完全顯現。
We all want the same things peace and prosperity and a better world for all but I think you are dreaming if you think that will be the outcome of this administration.
我們都渴望和平繁榮與更美好的世界，但若你認為這屆政府能帶來這種結果，那恐怕是在做夢。

@KGold53 - yup, nothing Trump says can be trusted, 100%. That is exactly why we all watched as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury market swooned this week in-spite of all the (global) market turbulence induced (i.e. self-inflicted !) by the Trump/Musk/Republican regime. Clearly, the rest of the world no longer believes in the American "safe haven" thesis - indeed, the U.S. stock and bond markets have been acting more like a very volatile emerging market under Trump. A lunatic, proven compulsive & pathological liar, and arguably a severely compromised individual like Trump is exactly why it is soooo important to own U.S. minted gold coins in a well-diversified portfolio.
沒錯，川普說的話 100%不可信。這就是為什麼我們都看到，儘管川普/馬斯克/共和黨政權引發了（即自我造成的！）全球市場動盪，但本週美元和美國國債市場卻大幅下跌。顯然，世界其他地區不再相信美國的「避風港」論點——事實上，在川普領導下，美國股市和債券市場的行為更像是一個非常不穩定的新興市場。像川普這樣一個被證明是強迫性和病態的說謊者，甚至可以說是一個嚴重受損的個體，正是為什麼在一個多元化的投資組合中持有美國鑄造的金幣如此重要。

I mean forget China, not even America's Democratic & NATO allies can trust Trump ... why would they want to support America and buy U.S. Treasuries when Trump has clearly aligned himself with Putin and the Russians (which, by the way, have an "unlimited strategic partnership" with CHINA ...) against Ukraine and America's traditional Democratic & NATO allies?
我的意思是，別提中國了，就連美國的民主黨和北約盟友也無法信任川普...當川普明顯與普京和俄羅斯人（順便說一下，俄羅斯與中國有「無限戰略夥伴關係」...）站在一起，反對烏克蘭和美國傳統的民主黨和北約盟友時，他們為什麼要支持美國並購買美國國債？

Sad. Pathetic. And I would argue total betrayal of the primary principles that have kept America (and its stock & bond markets ...) great since day #1 and long before Trump took over with lies, misinformation, and Russian propaganda: Democracy, the rule-of-law, and the U.S. Constitution. And, apparently what the MAGA crowd doesn't understand: sooo dangerous.
可悲。可憐。而且我認為這是對自第一天起就使美國（及其股票和債券市場...）偉大的主要原則的徹底背叛，遠在川普用謊言、錯誤信息和俄羅斯宣傳接管之前：民主、法治和美國憲法。而且，顯然 MAGA 群眾不明白的是：這太危險了。

I am convinced we can replace China as a source of cheap goods .
我確信我們能找到替代中國作為廉價商品來源的方案。
To that end I have identified four countries I'll refer to as " Bivi " and these countries have labor rates and currency rates similar to China .
為此我鎖定了四個國家，簡稱為「BIVI」，這些國家的勞動力成本與匯率水平與中國相近。
Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia—identified as "BIVI" for easy recall. They stand out due to their low-wage labor forces, growing industrial bases, and currencies that are generally weaker than the US Dollar. This combination makes them attractive alternatives or complements to China's role in global manufacturing. While their currencies differ significantly from the USD, they share similarities with China's in terms of being relatively undervalued, which enhances their competitiveness. These factors position "BIVI" countries as viable options to diversify economic partnerships and supply chains.
孟加拉、印度、越南和印尼——為方便記憶簡稱「BIVI」。這些國家因低廉的勞動力成本、不斷擴張的工業基礎，以及普遍低於美元的匯率而脫穎而出。這種組合使它們成為中國在全球製造業角色的替代或補充選擇。雖然這些貨幣與美元匯率差異顯著，但它們與人民幣相似之處在於相對低估的匯率，從而增強了競爭力。這些因素使「BIVI」國家成為多元化經濟合作與供應鏈的可行選項。
it is the height of ignorance to assume China can't be replaced .
認為中國不可替代的想法簡直愚昧至極。
Lastly , when China entered the wto in early 2000
最後要提的是，當中國在 2000 年初加入世界貿易組織時
the GDP was just over 1 trillion and today it is approx 17 trillion
其國內生產總值僅略超 1 兆美元，如今已達約 17 兆美元
The USA gdp was approx 10 trillion and today it is around 29 trillion
美國當時 GDP 約為 10 兆美元，現今則約 29 兆美元
USA has grown at a rate of 2.7 times compared to China's approximately 17 times in same time span.
美國經濟成長幅度為 2.7 倍，同期中國卻成長約 17 倍。
China manipulates their currency and what China fails to acknowledge is the currency rate advantage and the low wage labor force coupled with the trade barriers they use to thwart business they do not want encroaching in and on their economy .
中國操縱其貨幣匯率，且不願承認的是：他們利用匯率優勢、廉價勞動力，以及貿易壁壘來阻擋那些可能影響其經濟的商業活動。
China now has the second largest Gdp in the world and they use trade barriers and tariffs as a crowbar as it were to lever trade to their favor and they use tariffs as a source of revenue.
中國現已成為全球第二大經濟體，他們將貿易壁壘和關稅當作撬棍般，以此槓桿貿易優勢，並將關稅作為財政收入來源。
China isn't our friend and they steal ip.
中國並非我們的朋友，他們竊取智慧財產權。
I am asking you all to consider this when you're arguing about tariffs and whether or not the status quo can continue.
我請各位在爭論關稅問題及現狀能否持續時，將這些因素納入考量。

p.s did Trump rescind the recent 25% tariff on Chips that went into effect in January as a result of the tariffs Biden put on chips ?
附註：川普是否撤銷了今年一月因拜登對晶片加徵關稅而實施的 25%晶片關稅？

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