Equity Research
TARIFFS & RECESSION RISK IN FOCUS
China Matters: Patience and Resilience
China’s macroeconomic outlook shifted dramatically from AI/DeepSeek-induced optimism in Q1 to US tariff-fueled pessimism in April. The latest manufacturing PMI decline may be an early indication of economic weakness to come. However, the April Politburo meeting was underwhelming, showing patience in withholding policy stimulus and a belief in the resilience of the Chinese economy.
2 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Hui Shan and others
China Export Tracker: Number 2: What corporates are telling us (week of Apr 28, 2025)
1 May 2025 | Research | Equity - Trina Chen and others
Japan Export Tracker Number 1: What corporates are telling us (as of April 30, 2025)
2 May 2025 | Research | Equity - Daiki Takayama and others
US Daily: Gross Distorted Product
Q1 GDP printed at -0.3% annualized, but frontloading of imports probably significantly understates this number. In theory, frontloading should be neutral because it boosts imports (which enter the calculation of expenditure-side GDP negatively) but raises consumer spending, business fixed investment, and inventory investment (which all enter positively) by an equal amount. In practice, we believe inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too.
3 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Ronnie Walker and others
LatAm Views: Tariffs Trick or Treat
5 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Alberto Ramos and others
Also see:
Asia in Focus: ASEAN: Narrowing the Trade Gap
5 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Rina Jio and others
Global FX Trader: Waiting on the World to Change
2 May 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi
Global Rates Trader: Deterioration Deferred
2 May 2025 | Research | Economics - George Cole and others
Metals Comment: Steel & Aluminium Tariffs Lift US Prices, But Near-Term Downside Ahead
2 May 2025 | Research | Commodities- Aurelia Waltham and others
Backward-looking results from 1Q earnings season have been better than expected. In aggregate, year/year S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking above what was expected at the start of the earnings season (12% vs. 6%) primarily d...
2 May 2025 | 10:42pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
We follow closely comments from robot makers and supply chain names on their latest humanoid technology and products progress. From FY24/1Q25 earnings disclosures, an increasing number of humanoid makers (EV/home applian...
6 May 2025 | 7:05am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Jacqueline Du and others
Global Robotaxi: China’s Robotaxi market - the road to commercialization
With 500,000 Robotaxis expected to be operating across 10+ cities in China by 2030, we believe the question is no longer if L4 autonomous technology is ready, but one of how companies will commercialize the rapid pace of autonomous development. We see Robotaxis as one of the earliest and most visible avenues to commercialization of the autonomous technology, with growing consumer acceptance across large Tier 1 cities, a tightening supply of human drivers as the fleets mature and drivers retire, and with Government and insurance industry as enablers to support growth. We see both a sizeable TAM opportunity ahead – US$47bn by 2035, as well as a path to profitability, modelling positive gross margins in early 2026 for Tier 1 cities.
Read more: Robotaxi updates on Tesla, Japanese OEMs, Pony AI and Baidu.
6 May 2025 | 32pg | Research | Equity - Allen Chang and others
Head of Greater China Tech Research | Hong Kong
Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.BO): 4Q Beat: Mid-high teen SUV + HSD Tractor volume outlook for FY26E; Buy (on CL)
5 May 2025 | 11:10pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chandramouli Muthiah and others
Aspeed (5274.TWO): Earnings Review: 1Q25 strong beat; attractive valuation with a rosy outlook into 2026; reiterate Buy
5 May 2025 | 11:06pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Evelyn Yu and others
Venustech (002439.SZ): Governments' budgets recovery remains slow; Gen-AI as next driver; 4Q24 / 1Q25 miss; Downgrade to Sell
5 May 2025 | 8:32pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Verena Jeng and others
Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ): Earnings Review: A weak 1Q25 on margin pressure and continued pivot away from property and application services
5 May 2025 | 10:45pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Nick Zheng, CFA and others
Focus Media Information Tech (002027.SZ): Chairman meeting takeaways and FY24/1Q25 review: Enhanced positioning in offline ads markets; Buy
5 May 2025 | 10:49pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Lincoln Kong, CFA and others
- Company HighlightsPDD Holdings (PDD): Temu US full-entrusted model suspension more drastic-than-expected; TP unchanged as we continue to value Temu non-US only; Buy6 May 2025 | 9:32am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Ronald Keung, CFA and othersTesla Inc. (TSLA): Spotlight on China - examining FSD and market share in the biggest global market6 May 2025 | 7:06am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and othersIluka Resources (ILU.AX): Investor day: updates Min Sands project options & reinforces RE refinery capex and economics; Buy (on CL)6 May 2025 | 1:06am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and othersJohnson & Johnson (JNJ): TAR-200 Buyside NDR Underscores Bladder Cancer Opportunity5 May 2025 | 6:41pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and othersBoeing Co. (BA): Monthly aircraft delivery tracker: April continues improvement5 May 2025 | 11:32pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Noah Poponak, CFA and othersPalantir Technologies (PLTR): Still gaining momentum with AI strategy, debate on medium-term ecosystem remains6 May 2025 | 9:55am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Gabriela Borges, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsGC Tech: Apple subsidies in China E-store; supporting near-term demand for Apple supply chain6 May 2025 | 12:47am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and othersJapan Healthcare: Summary of global companies' results briefing comments on US tariff impact - Part 25 May 2025 | 9:08pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Akinori Ueda, Ph.D. and othersChina semis: AI / Smart driving to outgrow Smartphone / Mature nodes; Downgrading Hwatsing and Maxscend to Neutral5 May 2025 | 5:01pm| 19pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and othersAmericas Transportation: Introducing the US Tariff Impact Tracker – High Frequency Trends Plus Our Trade Scenarios Analysis for 20255 May 2025 | 5:00pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Jordan Alliger and othersAmericas Entertainment: Front Row Report: Live Entertainment High Frequency Data Tracker, April 20256 May 2025 | 4:04am| 31pg| Research | Equity-Stephen Laszczyk and othersTracking U.S. Supply Chain Congestion: GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale: May 5th; Index Up Sequentially, but Weekly Scale Unchanged at '2'6 May 2025 | 4:01am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Jordan Alliger and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Weekly Kickstart: S&P 500 return on equity continues to trump the rest of the world3 May 2025 | 4:48am| 28pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersChina Weekly Kickstart: MXCN gained 2% around Labor Day Holiday; Higher 2025 Southbound flow forecast; Weaker manufacturing PMIs in April on heightened US tariffs5 May 2025 | 5:19pm| 26pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Kinger Lau, CFA and othersJapan Weekly Kickstart: Merging the Market Monitor and Weekly Kickstart into a single report5 May 2025 | 5:28am| 25pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Bruce Kirk, CFA and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (05-May-25)5 May 2025 | 11:26pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (4-May-2025)4 May 2025 | 10:02pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallWeekly Hedging Update (3-May-2025)3 May 2025 | 7:46pm| 1pg| Research | Options-Arun Prakash, CFA
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Venustech (002439.SZ): Governments' budgets recovery remains slow; Gen-AI as next driver; 4Q24 / 1Q25 miss; Downgrade to Sell
5 May 2025 | 8:32pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Verena Jeng and others
China semis: AI / Smart driving to outgrow Smartphone / Mature nodes; Downgrading Hwatsing and Maxscend to Neutral
5 May 2025 | 5:01pm| 19pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and others
Sotera Health Co. (SHC): Upgrade to Buy from Neutral; Durable business model in volatile macro environment
5 May 2025 | 3:00pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Matthew Sykes and others
European Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May 2025 Update
2 May 2025 | 12:11pm| 23pg| Research | Equity-Jessica Binder Graham, CFA
±CL
Latest research
HMC Capital (HMC.AX): Industry conference and trading update; Buy
6 May 2025 | 10:41am| 7pg| Research | Equity-John Li
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO): 1Q25 First Take: FFO results ahead of expectations
6 May 2025 | 10:27am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Caitlin Burrows and others
Brinker International Inc. (EAT): Takeaways from management meeting
6 May 2025 | 10:09am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and others
Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Still gaining momentum with AI strategy, debate on medium-term ecosystem remains
6 May 2025 | 9:55am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Gabriela Borges, CFA and others
Entel SA (ENTEL.SN): 1Q25 First Take: In-Line Revenue, Margin Miss
6 May 2025 | 9:53am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Vitor Tomita, CFA and others
Paymentus Holdings (PAY): Key Takeaways: Beat and raise as non-discretionary spending exposure and recent business wins remain strong
6 May 2025 | 9:44am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Will Nance and others
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX): Pipeline discontinuations reinforce the need for platform execution
6 May 2025 | 9:42am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Salveen Richter, CFA and others
Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD): 1Q25 review: In-line EBITDA, housing market weakness remains an overhang
6 May 2025 | 9:36am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and others
Ares Management Corp. (ARES): Solid and durable EPS growth trajectory despite uncertain macro backdrop
6 May 2025 | 9:35am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
Northern Star Resources Ltd. (NST.AX): Completed DEG acquisition supports longer-term quality/ scale, with growing net cash on 8-10% FCF yield through construction; Buy
6 May 2025 | 9:33am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Hugo Nicolaci and others
Rating changes (last 24 hrs)
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Featured Media
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Research Unplugged: European Conviction List - Directors' Cut: May 2025 Spotlight2 May 2025 | 10:31pm| Equity Research
DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: Global Robotaxis, China Matters, M&M, Aspeed, BEKE, TH Healthcare, KMB, Oil
6 May 2025 | 7:23am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: cinco de mayo
6 May 2025 | 1:58am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
5 May 2025 | 9:03pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
WEEKLY ROUNDUPS
End of Week Market Intelligence: moving on?
3 May 2025 | 2:12am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - May 2, 2025
3 May 2025 | 1:02am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
GS Equity Radar: Europe Domestic Equities | Conviction Lists | Earnings | Spain Blackout | Tariffs & Trade | US Mega Caps
2 May 2025 | 9:51pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Trinity Ford and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
webcast: Europe
6 May 2025 | 11am NY | 4pm LN | 11pm HK
Ralf Weitz, CEO, Scout254 SE
Dr. Dirk Schmelzer, CFO, Scout254 SE
Filip Lindvall, VP Group Strategy & Investor Relations, Scout254 SE
Lisa Yang, Europe Media Analyst, GIR
Global Investment Research
webcast: Asia
7 May 2025 | 10:30am HK | 10:30pm NY(-1) | 3:30am LN
We will discuss key highlights and implications from Edition 1 of our Japan Tariff Tracker, covering 43 companies in Japan tech, auto, capital goods,...Read more
Daiki Takayama, Co-Head of Japan Equity Research
Kota Yuzawa, Head of APAC Autos Research
Yuichiro Isayama, Head of APAC Industrials Research
Minami Munakata, Japan Internet & Entertainment Analyst
Michael Snaith, Asia Research Merchandising
Passcode: 369223; Meeting ID: 996 9144 7234
Global Investment Research
webcast: Europe
7 May 2025 | 11am NY | 4pm LN | 11pm HK
We will discuss the latest trends across Pearson's business, the market backdrop and future prospects, with its CFO Sally Johnson
Sally Johnson, CFO, Pearson
James Tate, Europe Media, GIR
Global Investment Research in partnership with FICC and Equities
webcast: Asia
12 May 2025 | 11am HK | 11pm NY(-1) | 4am LN
Amidst the tariff induced turbulence, we will discuss our latest thoughts on the sector, likely impact of tariffs on orders/demand, production trends...Read more
Yuichiro Isayama, Head of APAC Industrials Research
Jacqueline Du, Greater China Industrial Tech Analyst
Chao Wang, Taiwan Industrials & Technology Analyst
Minsu Kim, Asia Industrial Spec Sales
Passcode: 726050; Meeting ID: 945 6205 2764
UPCOMING FEATURED CONFERENCES
European Consumer Staples and Retail Conference
13-14 May 2025 | London
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Global Staples Forum
13 May 2025 | New York
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Electrify Europe: Utilities and Clean Energy Conference
19-20 May 2025 | London
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TechNet China
21-22 May 2025 | The Portman Ritz-Carlton, Shanghai
Register | Agenda
PAST CONFERENCES REPLAYS / TAKEAWAYS
