China Companies Cut Foreign-Currency Debt Just in Time for Trump
中国公司及时削减外币债务以迎接特朗普

Chinese companies’ foreign-currency debt load has shrunk significantly, reducing a key source of vulnerability as the yuan faces growing uncertainties under Donald Trump’s second presidency.
中国公司的外币债务负担显著减少，降低了在特朗普第二任总统任期内人民币面临日益增长的不确定性时的一个关键脆弱来源。

The outstanding value of Chinese firms’ loans in non-yuan currencies fell to $570 billion as of the end of October, the least in 12 years, according to Bloomberg’s calculations based on central bank data. The figures include borrowings by certain government-linked entities and non-bank financial institutions.
根据彭博社基于中央银行数据的计算，截至 10 月底，中国企业以非人民币计价的贷款未偿还金额降至 5700 亿美元，为 12 年来最低。这些数据包括某些与政府相关的实体和非银行金融机构的借款。

The country’s foreign-currency bonds, excluding those issued by the government, now total $654 billion in principal value, the lowest since 2017, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
该国的外币债券（不包括政府发行的债券）目前的本金总值为 6540 亿美元，为 2017 年以来的最低水平，彭博社编制的数据表明。

The plunge partly resulted from waning appetite for foreign-currency debt after a series of interest rate cuts by Beijing made local funding much cheaper, at a time when the Federal Reserve remained in its policy tightening cycle. Meanwhile, China’s property-led economic slowdown also sapped demand for developers’ offshore debt and weakened companies’ impetus to seek global expansion.
此次暴跌部分是由于在北京一系列降息后，外币债务的需求减弱，使得本地融资变得更加便宜，而此时美联储仍在收紧政策。同时，中国以房地产为主导的经济放缓也削弱了对开发商离岸债务的需求，并削弱了企业寻求全球扩张的动力。

The lighter foreign debt pile may offer some relief to the yuan, which is under increased depreciation pressures ahead of Trump’s return to the White House. In a taste of what’s to come, the president-elect roiled markets again this week by saying he would impose additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods.
较轻的外债负担可能会为人民币提供一些缓解，人民币在特朗普重返白宫之前面临着加大的贬值压力。作为即将到来的预兆，候任总统本周再次搅动市场，表示他将对中国商品征收额外的 10%关税。

“This will help Chinese companies handle risks from foreign debt repayment and FX volatility after Trump takes office,” said Le Xia, chief Asia economist at BBVA. Businesses will turn more cautious toward raising foreign-currency debt in the coming years with a focus on the health of their balance sheets, he added.
“这将帮助中国公司在特朗普上任后应对外债偿还和外汇波动带来的风险，”BBVA 首席亚洲经济学家乐夏表示。他补充道，企业在未来几年将更加谨慎地增加外币债务，关注自身资产负债表的健康状况。

The loan data take into account of onshore deals handled by all types of banks and offshore lending from Chinese financial institutions. Data on loans offered by overseas banks aren’t available on the Chinese central bank’s website.
贷款数据考虑了所有类型银行处理的在岸交易和中国金融机构的离岸贷款。海外银行提供的贷款数据在中国中央银行的网站上不可用。

Cost was a big driver behind the plummeting foreign-currency loan and bond deals, thanks to the divergence of monetary policy paths between the People’s Bank of China and the Fed in the past two years. As a result, the gap between US and Chinese 10-year government bond yields reached its widest level in 22 years in April, and has since narrowed marginally.
成本是外币贷款和债券交易急剧下降的主要原因，这要归功于过去两年中国人民银行与美联储之间货币政策路径的分歧。因此，美国和中国 10 年期国债收益率之间的差距在 4 月份达到了 22 年来的最高水平，此后略有缩小。

That has encouraged more Chinese firms to turn inward for financing, taking their sales of yuan notes to a record 4.66 trillion yuan ($643 billion) in the third quarter, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
这鼓励了更多中国公司向内寻求融资，彭博社汇编的数据表明，第三季度它们的人民币票据销售创下了 4.66 万亿元（6430 亿美元）的纪录。

In contrast, a record wave of defaults among Chinese property developers, previously a dominant force of dollar debt issuance in Asia, caused the funding channel to nearly dry up.
相反，中国房地产开发商创下的违约潮，曾是亚洲美元债务发行的主导力量，导致融资渠道几乎枯竭。

Meanwhile, a slump in overseas mergers and acquisitions by Chinese firms was another key factor suppressing demand for foreign debt, according to Charles Chang, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings, citing challenges including tighter regulatory scrutiny on such deals especially in developed markets.
与此同时，标准普尔全球评级的分析师查尔斯·张表示，中国企业海外并购的萎缩是抑制外债需求的另一个关键因素，原因包括对这些交易的监管审查更加严格，尤其是在发达市场。

While the subdued demand for offshore credit is partly a reflection of China’s ailing economy, it may at least take some pressure off policymakers in their fight to defend a weakening currency.
尽管对离岸信贷的需求疲软在一定程度上反映了中国经济的疲软，但这至少可能减轻政策制定者在捍卫疲弱货币方面的压力。

The offshore yuan is down about 2% this year, on track for three consecutive years of losses.
离岸人民币今年下跌约 2%，有望连续三年亏损。

“The front-loading of debt payment due to exchange rate fluctuation could be less,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Its impact on the yuan’s exchange rate could also be smaller.”
“由于汇率波动，债务支付的前置可能会减少，”澳大利亚和新西兰银行有限公司的高级中国策略师邢兆鹏表示。“这对人民币汇率的影响也可能更小。”