You can see clearly from the graph that there are three “eras” of MoC:
从图中可以清楚地看出，MoC 有三个“时代”：

• Patch 1.0: Initial release of MoC with 10 Floors max only
  1.0 版本：MoC 初始版本，最多只有 10 层
• Patch 1.3: Introduction of Floors 11 and 12 as the hardest floors wth increasing focus on Boss and Elite enemies
  1.3 版本：引入 11 层和 12 层作为最难的层级，越来越注重 Boss 和精英敌人
• Patch 1.6 Part 2: Futher reduction in enemy volume and almot every fight is focused on Boss and Elite enemies
  1.6 版本第二部分：进一步减少敌人数量，几乎每场战斗都集中在 Boss 和精英敌人身上

As soon as the AoE game mode launched, Mihoyo got rid of most of the trash mobs in the hardest MoC floors. Instead, they dramatically raised the difficulty with harder enemies and a greater focus on single target damage.
AoE 游戏模式一上线，米哈游就移除了大部分最难的 MoC 层级中的杂兵。相反，他们通过更强大的敌人和更注重单体伤害来大幅提高难度。

Afterall, players shouldn’t be rewarded twice for owning AoE characters… right?
毕竟，玩家不应该因为拥有 AoE 角色而获得双倍奖励……对吧？

Because HSR combat was designed to have multiple levers Mihoyo can manipulate, they can also create Blessings that are hyper-targeted. This means they can heavily influence how they want players to problem solve and avoid brute forcing content.
由于崩坏：星穹铁道战斗的设计有多种米哈游可以操纵的杠杆，他们也可以创造出超级针对性的祝福。这意味着他们可以 heavily influence 玩家如何解决问题并避免暴力破解内容。

For example, compare the June 2024 HSR MOC versus the June 2024 Genshin Abyss:
例如，比较一下 2024 年 6 月星铁模拟宇宙与 2024 年 6 月原神深渊：

• HSR Blessing: Provides up to 75% ATK and 150% Break Effect in addition to a 100% Action Advance. Even ignoring the action advance, the raw value of stats is worth 40 substats for every single team member.
  星铁祝福：在 100% 行动提前的基础上，额外提供高达 75% 的攻击力和 150% 的破韧效率。即使忽略行动提前的效果，这些属性的原始值对于每个团队成员来说也相当于 40 点副词条。
• Genshin Blessing: Provides up to 60% Elemental or Physical Damage %. This is worth approximately 10 substats.
  原神祝福：提供高达 60% 的元素伤害或物理伤害加成。这大约相当于 10 点副词条。

To come up with a Blessing as extreme as the one in HSR, Genshin would need to offer something equivalent to: When you trigger Dendro reactions 5 times, your entire team gains 944 EM
要想在原神中设计出像星铁那样强力的祝福，可能需要提供类似于以下的效果：触发 5 次草元素反应后，你的全队获得 944 点元素精通。

Likewise, Pure Fiction has also been a game mode that has rotated between a fixed set of 3 buffs rewarding:
同样地，“纯净交响曲”也是一个在 3 种固定增益效果之间轮换的游戏模式，分别奖励：

• Ultimates (Patches 1.6 and 2.1);
  元素爆发伤害（1.6 和 2.1 版本）；
• DoT damage (Patches 1.6 and 2.2);
  持续伤害（1.6 和 2.2 版本）；
• and FUA damage (Patches 2.0, 2.1, and 2.3).
  以及重击伤害（2.0、2.1 和 2.3 版本）。

It is very clear at this point that Mihoyo explicitly expects players to build teams around these themes and pull for the required supporting characters in the gacha.
显然，米哈游明确希望玩家围绕这些主题组建队伍，并在抽卡系统中投入资源获取所需的辅助角色。

3cii. Genshin has fewer levers for restrictive gameplay so its design looks different
3cii. 原神在限制游戏玩法方面的设计空间较小，因此其设计看起来有所不同。

HSR was built from the ground up to have multiple combat systems that could explicitly reward or punish players. Genshin was not.
HSR 从一开始就被设计成拥有多种战斗系统，可以明确地奖励或惩罚玩家。原神则不是。

Geshin also has a larger focus on other components in the power equation which contributes to variance between players (e.g. player skill, Artifact quality). This in turn lets players brute force content.
原神更加注重影响玩家实力的其他因素，这些因素导致了玩家之间的差异（例如玩家技术、圣遗物质量）。这反过来又让玩家可以通过硬实力碾压游戏内容。

For example, do you know someone who basically plays the exact same teams every single Abyss (and completely ignores the Spiral Abyss blessing)?
例如，你认识每次深渊都用几乎完全相同的队伍（并且完全无视深渊祝福）的人吗？

Since Genshin cannot rely on the same explicit levers as HSR, it requires a different approach to game design to pressure spending.
由于原神不能像 HSR 那样依赖于相同的明确的杠杆，它需要一种不同的游戏设计方法来促使玩家氪金。

3cii-1. Combat: Shield Breaking
3cii-1. 战斗：破盾

This is one of the classic approaches to Abyss combat design. Elemental shields (generally) cannot be brute forced. This means that players must make sacrifices in team building to handle them.
这是深渊战斗设计的经典方法之一。元素护盾（通常）无法通过蛮力破除。这意味着玩家必须在队伍构建中做出牺牲来应对它们。

A classic example is the 3.7 Spiral Abyss which had a combination of Hydro and Cryo Heralds. This is an encounter design that is explicitly hostile to Hydro characters and more specifically Nilou Bloom (which was a very strong and popular team).
一个典型的例子是 3.7 版本的深渊，其中出现了水深渊使徒和冰深渊使徒的组合。这种遭遇战设计明显对水系角色不利，尤其是对妮露绽放队（当时非常强势且流行的队伍）。

As I wrote in my 3.7 Spiral Abyss Guide, Elemental Shield challenges such as these are designed as a “sink” for key characters. In this case, the 3.7 Spiral Abyss Left Half was designed as a Bennett and (to a lesser extent) Nahida “sink”.
正如我在 3.7 版本深渊指南中所写，像这样的元素护盾挑战被设计成关键角色的“汇”。在这种情况下，3.7 版本深渊的左半部分被设计成班尼特和（在较小程度上）纳西妲的“汇”。

Structuring Abyss layouts to create team building challenges therefore punishes players who lack a deep enough character roster.
因此，通过构建深渊布局来创造队伍组建挑战，会惩罚那些角色储备不够丰富的玩家。

3cii-2. Combat: Enemy wave structures
3cii-2. 战斗：敌人波次结构

Teams in Genshin have specific rotation structures and damage profiles. Encounters can be designed to punish or reward these team structures.
原神中的每个队伍都有特定的循环结构和伤害曲线。遭遇战的设计可以惩罚或奖励这些队伍结构。

For example, Ayaka Freeze is a team which has:
例如，神里绫华永冻队具有以下特点：

• Initial set-up period to cast buffs and pile them onto Ayaka;
  初始的准备阶段，用于施放增益效果并将其叠加到神里绫华身上；
• Frontloaded spike in damage concentrated in her Burst; and
  集中在其爆发技能中的爆发性伤害峰值；以及
• Period of downtime before the second rotation can begin.
  在第二次循环开始之前的停滞期。

This team therefore is good at greeting a pile of AoE mobs and then asking the question: “Will it Blend?”
因此，这支队伍擅长于迎接一大群 AoE 小怪，然后问出这样一个问题：“能把它们都冻住吗？”

But it can also be easily punished. During Patch 3.x, Mihoyo wanted to promote its latest new teams and that meant punishing older popular teams from the 2.x era.
但它也很容易受到惩罚。在 3.x 版本中，米哈游希望推广其最新的队伍，这意味着要惩罚 2.x 时代流行的旧队伍。

Patch 3.4 Abyss Floor is an excellent example of punishing setup teams from the 2.x era. Abyss Floor 1-1 has 4 waves of single target enemies:
3.4 版本的深渊螺旋就是一个很好的例子，它惩罚了 2.x 时代需要准备时间的队伍。深渊螺旋 1-1 层有 4 波单体敌人：

• If all 4 Ruin Machines spawned at the same time, it’d be a pretty easy clear for Ayaya Freeze;
  如果所有 4 个遗迹机器同时出现，那么对于神里绫华永冻队来说，这将是一场相当轻松的战斗；
• But when they spawn separately, the threshold to brute force this is so much higher. A 20 sec rotation across 4 waves = 80 sec which is nearly half of your 180 sec limit for a 3★ clear;
  但是，当它们分开出现时，暴力破解的门槛要高得多。4 波敌人，每波 20 秒的循环 = 80 秒，这几乎是 3 星通关 180 秒限制的一半；
• If any single enemy requires two rotations, your time allowance basically dies; and
  如果有任何一个敌人需要两轮攻击才能解决，你的时间限制基本上就没了；而且
• As a front loaded Burst team, if you overkill the first wave then your CDs are down for the next Wave forcing you to run down the clock.
  作为一个前置爆发队伍，如果你在第一波敌人身上倾泻了太多伤害，那么你的技能冷却时间就会和下一波敌人的刷新时间错开，迫使你浪费时间等待。

You can see similar patterns in other Abyss encounter designs:
你可以在其他深渊环境设计中看到类似的模式：

• Most enemies are no longer Venti-able precisely so you cannot solve all your problems with one character;
  大多数敌人不再能够被温迪的技能轻易控制，所以你不能再用一个角色解决所有问题；
• The developers decide whether enemies are allowed to spawn close enough to be grouped by Kazuha or too far away to be easily grouped
  开发者决定了敌人是否会生成在足够近的距离以被万叶聚集，或者相距太远而难以被聚集
  • e.g. The Eremite spawn pattern in Patch 3.4 Abyss Floor 12-3-2 was nerfed specifically to prevent easy grouping
    例如，3.4 版本深渊 12-3-2 中的镀金旅团的生成模式被专门削弱，以防止玩家轻易地将他们聚集在一起
• The Wenut is a boss that has explicit on / off dps phases and extremely predictable attacks to punish setup based teams and reward teams with flexible rotation structures
  沙虫是一种具有明显的输出/非输出阶段以及极易预测的攻击模式的 Boss，这惩罚了依赖特定流程的队伍，而奖励了那些具有灵活输出循环结构的队伍
  • e.g. C0 Ganyu can solo the Wenut because a constant stream of CAs line up very well against a boss that has low HP and is extremely predictable
    例如，0 命甘雨可以单挑沙虫，因为持续不断的蓄力箭雨非常适合对付这种血量低且攻击模式极其容易预测的 Boss

Adjusting combat encounter design is another method similar to shield breaking that can indirectly pressure player rosters.
调整战斗环境设计是另一种类似于破盾机制的方法，可以间接地对玩家的阵容构成压力。

3cii-3. Combat: Imaginarium Theater
3cii-3. 战斗：机关棋谭

Genshin has also evolved to the point where the variance in even accounts without vertical investment is huge due to factors such as Artifact quality, player skill and game knowledge (do you know how to use i-frames?), etc.
由于圣遗物质量、玩家技术和游戏知识（你知道如何使用无敌帧吗？）等因素，即使是不氪金的账号，原神也已经发展到差异巨大的地步。

Genshin also can’t create highly restrictive rules such as “the AoE mode” and “the non-AoE mode” in a game where players can just group enemies or manipulate the AI.
在一个玩家可以轻松聚集敌人或操纵 AI 的游戏中，原神也无法创建“AoE 模式”和“非 AoE 模式”这样限制性很强的规则。

Genshin also has a problem where eventually it just cannot convince players to roll for characters with overlapping roles.
原神还有一个问题，那就是最终它无法说服玩家去抽取角色定位重叠的角色。

For example, HSR can convince you Black Swan vs Blade are Wind DPS characters that are both worth owning because they have different Paths and uses (Nihility DoT vs Destruction Crit Scaling).
例如，崩铁可以让你相信黑天鹅和刃都是值得拥有的风伤输出角色，因为他们有不同的命途和用途（虚无持续伤害 vs 毁灭暴击倍率）。

But why should someone in Genshin own Hutao vs Yoimiya vs Arlecchino vs Lyney when their team structures are so similar? Do you really need a 4th Pyro on-field DPS character when you can’t own more than one Kazuha / Chevreuse / etc.?
但是，当胡桃、宵宫、阿莱奇诺和琳妮特的队伍构成如此相似时，为什么原神玩家要同时拥有他们呢？当你无法拥有多个枫原万叶/纳维莱特等角色时，你真的需要第四个火系站场主 C 吗？

At this point, there are only heavy handed options available to create restrictive gameplay. And so we arrive at the magic world of the Imaginarium Theater, which:
在这一点上，只剩下一些生硬的选择来创造限制性的游戏玩法。于是我们来到了模拟宇宙的魔法世界，它：

• Forcibly locks accounts to specific elements; and
  强制账号绑定特定元素；以及
• Restricting the number of times a character can be used per run
  限制每个角色在每次运行中可以使用次数

This form of ham-fisted restrictions is the natural conclusion if you create a game where:
这种笨拙的限制形式是自然而然的结论，如果你创造了一个游戏：

• The game systems were not built from the ground up to allow for multiple ways to differentiate between characters that perform the same role;
  游戏系统并非从一开始就建立在允许多种方式来区分扮演相同角色的角色的基础上；
• The power equation is sufficiently skewed to the point where players can brute force combat with highly invested characters; and
  体力值方程式过度倾斜，以至于玩家可以通过堆砌数值强行碾压战斗；并且
• The game developers do not want to aggressively power creep characters and instead want characters to retain value over time.
  游戏开发者不想让角色强度快速膨胀，而是希望角色能够长期保值。

It is telling that one of the few things Wuthering Waves did not copy 1-for-1 from Genshin was the Spiral Abyss. Instead, their Tower of Adversity game mode has the same Vigor system that Imaginarium Theater and Triumphant Frenzy Event use.
耐人寻味的是，《崩坏：星穹铁道》几乎完全照搬了《原神》的设计，但唯独没有复制深境螺旋。相反，《崩坏：星穹铁道》的“模拟宇宙”玩法采用了与“忘却之庭”和“混沌回忆”活动相同的体力机制。

3cii-4. Character Kits: The “Bait Constellations”
3cii-4. 角色机制：“诱饵命座”

Mihoyo needs to create additional avenues of impulse spending to drain free income from players and encourage impulse spending.
米哈游需要创造额外的冲动消费途径，以消耗玩家的免费收入并鼓励冲动消费。

This is especially true for long-term highly invested players who have developed accounts and large character rosters.
对于那些已经拥有成熟账号和大量角色的长期重度玩家来说尤其如此。

• These players don’t experience the same pressures to pull for new characters that a new player with an underdeveloped account does, so may pull on the gacha less; and
  这些玩家不会像新玩家那样，为了完善自己的账号而承受抽取新角色的压力，因此他们可能不会频繁地进行抽卡；并且
• These players can stockpile their free income. So when they do finally pull, they can fully subsidize their gacha with free income only.
  这些玩家可以积攒他们的免费收入。因此，当他们最终决定抽卡时，他们可以完全使用免费收入来支付抽卡费用。

The approach Genshin has taken with modern character design is to push for early “bait Constellations”. For developed accounts looking for a taste of vertical investment, bait Constellations helps drain savings and trigger impulse spending.
《原神》在现代角色设计中采取的策略是推广早期的“诱饵命座”。对于那些寻求垂直培养体验的成熟账号来说，“诱饵命座”有助于消耗他们的积蓄并引发冲动消费。

How successful has this been?
这种做法的效果如何？

Consider Neuvillette. His C1 Constellation is generally highly regarded within the community. So how did the community respond?
让我们以莱欧斯利为例。他的 1 命座在玩家群体中普遍评价很高。那么玩家群体对此作何反应呢？

• Neuvillette overall ownership rate: 65.5%
  莱欧斯利总体持有率：65.5%
• Neuvillette C1 rate: 43.3%
  莱欧斯利 1 命座持有率：43.3%
• Neuvillette overall C1 ownership: 28.4%
  莱欧斯利 1 命座总体持有率：28.4%

So about 1 in every 3.5 players in the entire game owns C1 Neuvillette specifically. This ignores all the players who own C2 and up.
这意味着平均每 3.5 个玩家中就有 1 个拥有 1 命莱欧斯利，这还没算那些拥有更高命座的玩家。

To put this into context, there are 8 characters in the game who have an overall ownership rate less than this.
值得一提的是，游戏中只有 8 个角色的总体持有率低于这个数字。

There are 36 Limited characters in the game as of Patch 4.6. So, in a way, Neuvillette’s C1 Constellation by itself is more popular than 22% of the entire Genshin character roster.
截至 4.6 版本，游戏内共有 36 个限定角色。因此，从某种程度上来说，莱欧斯利的 1 命座本身就比原神全部角色名单中 22%的角色更受欢迎。

That’s a lot of money at stake here. So it’s not surprising that Mihoyo has applied these lessons to HSR and aggressively adopted bait E1 / E2 Constellations designs.
这背后的利益是巨大的。因此，米哈游将这些经验应用到崩坏：星穹铁道中，并积极采用诱导玩家抽取 1 魂/2 魂命途的设计也就不足为奇了。

3d. Horniness is also a form of monetization
3. 色诱也是一种盈利方式

The exception is if the motivating factor for pulling characters is horniness. Horniness is evergreen.
除非抽取角色的动机是出于色欲。色欲是永不过时的。

If the motivation for spending isn’t gameplay but horniness, then you can get away with a lot. (e.g. NIKKE, Azur Lane, etc.) However, this also requires you to have a clear design vision about building a game focused on eroticism.
如果花钱的动机不是为了游戏性而是为了色欲，那么很多事情都可以不用顾忌。（例如 NIKKE、碧蓝航线等）。然而，这也要求你对构建一款专注于情色的游戏有清晰的设计愿景。

As such, this can only be adopted by game studios whose vision is to build a niche game and not a mass-market mainstream game.
因此，这种模式只适用于那些致力于打造小众游戏而非大众化主流游戏的厂商。

3di. What if I do want to make a mainstream game? How can I use this knowledge?
3di. 如果我确实想做一款主流游戏呢？我该如何利用这些知识？

The idea behind horniness as a driver for spending is that it is ultimately about appealing to niche individual tastes. So we can apply the same ideas here for Genshin.
将色欲作为消费驱动力的理念，本质上是迎合小众的个人口味。所以我们也可以将同样的思路应用到原神中。

One of the problems Mihoyo needs to solve is that it is running a portfolio business now. Its products Genshin, HSR, and ZZZ are all competing with each other and your monthly entertainment budget.
米哈游现在需要解决的一个问题是，它正在经营一个产品组合业务。其产品原神、崩坏：星穹铁道和绝区零都在相互竞争，争夺玩家每月的娱乐预算。

This means Mihoyo needs to deconflict the marquee character releases across its games.
这意味着米哈游需要协调其旗下各款游戏的招牌角色发布时间。

• For example, you know that Acheron is releasing in March 2024 and will be your blockbuster release that absorbs all the marketing hype;
  例如，你知道阿基维利将在 2024 年 3 月发布，并将成为你吸引所有营销热度的重磅炸弹；
• You need Genshin to not detract from HSR’s success and overshadow Acheron’s release;
  你需要原神不至于影响星穹铁道的成功，也不至于 overshadow 阿基维利的发布；
• But you also don’t want to sacrifice Genshin’s revenue for free.
  但你也不想白白牺牲原神的收入。

Your goal here is to try and segment your customers as much as possible:
你的目标是尽可能地细分你的客户：

• Allow your blockbuster release in one game to capture the majority of spending from the broad audience;
  通过一款爆款游戏吸引大众玩家的大部分消费；
• Extract marginal revenue with niche designs in your second game that won’t compete for broad attention but drive impulse spending;
  通过第二款游戏中的利基设计获取边际收益，这款游戏不会与大众游戏争夺注意力，但会推动冲动消费；

What does this look like in practice? Well, consider Chiori. Chiori released in the same month as Acheron, a highly anticipated HSR character.
这种模式在实践中是什么样子的？ 让我们以“知博”为例。 “知博”与备受期待的 HSR 角色“阿基维尔”在同一个月发布。

Character 角色	Player Ownership Rate 玩家拥有率	% Owners with C6 拥有 C6 的玩家百分比	% Players owning C6 拥有 C6 的玩家占比
Top 10 C6’ed Chars C6 拥有率最高的 10 个角色
Yelan 夜兰	81.3%	12.1%	9.8%
Furina 福里宁	83.7%	10.9%	9.2%
Chiori 绮良良	18.5%	8.8%	1.6%
Neuvillette 那维莱特	65.5%	8.5%	5.6%
Wanderer 散兵	43.9%	8.4%	3.7%
Arlecchino 阿莱奇诺	50.4%	7.9%	4.0%
Yae Miko 八重神子	55.5%	7.9%	4.4%
Ayaka 神里绫华	69.4%	7.3%	5.1%
Eula 优菈	34.0%	7.2%	2.5%
Itto 一斗	21.9%	6.9%	1.5%
Other chars (for reference) 其他角色（仅供参考）
Navia 纳维娅	36.5%	4.2%	1.5%
Ayato 绫人	32.4%	4.7%	1.5%
Alhaitham 艾尔海森	32.2%	3.0%	1.0%

• Chiori is a character that is in the bottom 5 for overall ownership. However, Chiori’s fanbase is incredibly intense and is top 3 for C6 Rate¹At 8.8% C6 Rate, this is 2x the median C6 Rate for 5-Star characters;
  从整体持有率来看，千早是倒数五名角色之一。然而，千早的粉丝群体却异常强大，她的六命率位居前三 ¹ ；
• Chiori has a comparable number of people who went all-out to C6 her compared to other generically popular character such as Navia, Ayato, and Alhaitham;
  与纳西妲、绫人和艾尔海森等普遍受欢迎的角色相比，为千早投入全部心血将其提升至六命的玩家数量不相上下；

Expect this trend to continue with future character releases and designs as Mihoyo experiments with ways to deconflict its character release schedules across multiple games (e.g. the split player reactions with Emilie).
随着米哈游尝试以各种方式消除其多款游戏角色发布时间表的冲突（例如，艾米莉的元素反应拆分），预计这种趋势将在未来角色发布和设计中持续下去。

4. Enshittification: When monetization goes wrong
4. 平台垃圾化：当货币化走向错误的道路

Enshittification may be a new word for you. So let’s first define what it is. Because I am lazy, I am going to steal borrow the Wikipedia definition:
平台垃圾化对你来说可能是一个新词。所以，让我们先来定义一下它是什么。因为我比较懒，所以我要“借用”维基百科的定义：

Enshittification is the pattern of decreasing quality observed in online services and products such as Amazon, Facebook, Google Search, Twitter, Bandcamp, Reddit, Uber, and Unity.
平台垃圾化是指在亚马逊、脸书、谷歌搜索、推特、Bandcamp、Reddit、优步和 Unity 等在线服务和产品中观察到的质量下降模式。

How does this occur? The creator of the word enshittification, Cory Doctorow, offered an explanation:
这是如何发生的呢？“平台垃圾化”一词的创造者科里·多克托罗给出了解释：

Here is how platforms die: first, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.
平台的消亡过程如下：首先，它们对用户有利；然后，它们为了让企业客户满意而滥用用户；最后，它们又为了攫取所有价值而滥用这些企业客户。然后，它们就消亡了。

I call this enshittification, and it is a seemingly inevitable consequence arising from the combination of the ease of changing how a platform allocates value, combined with the nature of a “two sided market”, where a platform sits between buyers and sellers, hold each hostage to the other, taking off an ever-larger share of the value that passes between them.
我称之为“劣质化”，这似乎是平台价值分配方式易于改变，以及“双边市场”性质共同作用的必然结果。在双边市场中，平台介于买方和卖方之间，将双方挟持为人质，从他们之间传递的价值中攫取越来越大的份额。

This is a pretty good observation by a non-business person about how basic Marketing 101 principles work.
这是一个非商业人士对市场营销 101 原则如何运作的相当不错的观察。

To explain how enshittification (decreasing quality) affects live service games, I think it is helpful to: 
为了解释“劣质化”（质量下降）如何影响服务型游戏，我认为以下几点会有所帮助：

• First cover the formal Marketing theory about how enshittification occurs;
  首先，介绍关于“劣质化”如何发生的正式营销理论；
• Secondly, I will propose an alternative reason about why products and services get worse over time;
  其次，我将提出一个关于产品和服务为何会随着时间的推移而变得更糟的替代原因；
• Then I will explain how Mihoyo avoids enshittification; and
  然后，我将解释米哈游如何避免“劣质化”；以及
• Why enshittification can help explain why Mihoyo seems so resistant to releasing skins in Genshin and HSR
  为什么“劣质化”可以解释米哈游似乎如此抗拒在原神和崩坏：星穹铁道中发布皮肤

4a. Marketing 101: How does pricing work?
4a. 市场营销 101：定价是如何运作的？

The fundamental principle in Pricing 101 is: You can only charge as much as the value you create.
定价 101 的基本原则是：你只能收取与你创造的价值相等的费用。

This makes intuitive sense. If you create a product or service worth $10, why would anyone pay more than $10 for it?
这很直观。如果你创造了一种价值 10 美元的产品或服务，为什么有人会愿意支付超过 10 美元购买它呢？

However, companies do not typically charge the full amount of the value they create. This is because:
然而，公司通常不会收取他们创造的全部价值。这是因为：

Willingness to Pay: 付款意愿：

• People value things differently (e.g. due to brand loyalty, social impact, weather, etc.);
  人们对事物的价值评估不同（例如，由于品牌忠诚度、社会影响、天气等因素）；
• Competition from other companies might result in price competition. This might lead to consumers forming expectations about what they are willing to pay;
  来自其他公司的竞争可能会导致价格竞争。这可能会导致消费者对其愿意支付的价格形成预期；
• A great example is the $60 default price for AAA games that people expect. There’s no fundamental law of physics that says games should cost $60. But consumer expectations set a limit to what companies can charge.
  一个很好的例子是人们期望的 60 美元 3A 游戏默认价格。没有任何基本的物理定律规定游戏应该卖 60 美元。但消费者的预期为公司可以收取的价格设定了上限。

Consumer Surplus: 消费者剩余：

• Companies typically charge lower than the maximum possible Willingness to Pay that Consumers have;
  公司的定价通常低于消费者可能拥有的最高支付意愿；
• Sharing some of the total value created with consumers encourages them to buy more because the customer is getting more value than what they paid for;
  与消费者分享创造的部分总价值会鼓励他们购买更多，因为消费者获得的价值超过了他们支付的价格；
• While consumer surplus is measured in monetary terms, it can capture intangible aspects such as the customer experience. It’s just a question of whether you paid the amount of money that the experience was worth.
  虽然消费者剩余是用货币来衡量的，但它可以捕捉到无形的方面，比如客户体验。问题只在于你是否支付了与体验价值相符的金钱。

4ai. Okay so why is this related to enshittification?
4ai. 好的，那么这与垃圾化有什么关系？

Enshittification is essentially the Darth Vader approach to pricing: “I Am Altering the Deal, Pray I Don’t Alter It Any Further.”
“垃圾化”本质上就是达斯·维达式的定价策略：“我在修改交易，希望我不会再进一步修改。”

If you are unhappy with how much profit you are making as a company, you have three choices:
如果您对公司目前的利润率不满意，您有三种选择：

• Expand: Sell to more people at the same profit margin²Expand your sales volume;
  扩张：以相同的利润率将产品销售给更多的人 ² ；
• Improve: Make a better and more valuable product that consumer have a higher willingness to pay³And therefore charge more for it;
  改进：打造更好、更有价值的产品，提高消费者的支付意愿 ³ ；
• Reallocate: Make a power grab and go take away consumer surplus⁴Change how value is shared.
  重新分配：进行权力攫取，夺走消费者剩余 ⁴ 。

Option 3 is what the core idea behind what Cory Doctorow calls “ease of changing how a platform allocates value”.
第三种选择正是科里·多克托罗所说的“平台改变价值分配方式的便利性”背后的核心理念。

An example of this is the attempt by Unity to change its pricing model to charge for installations. This is basically an unashamed power grab to steal consumer surplus leading to enshittification.
这方面的一个例子是 Unity 试图改变其定价模式，对安装收费。这基本上是一种毫不掩饰的权力攫取行为，旨在窃取消费者剩余，最终导致“垃圾化”。

4b. Enshittification sometimes isn’t deliberate
4b. “垃圾化”有时并非故意为之

Okay so if we don’t want products and services to be enshittified, then companies should focus on Options 1 and 2.
因此，如果我们不希望产品和服务被“垃圾化”，那么企业应该专注于选择 1 和选择 2。

In fact, Option 2 about improving the product sounds pretty good! Afterall, the company invests in the product and makes it better, increasing total value, and gets paid for doing it. Isn’t that a win-win approach?
事实上，选择 2 中提到的改进产品听起来相当不错！毕竟，公司投资产品并使其变得更好，增加了总价值，并因此获得了回报。这难道不是一种双赢的做法吗？

No.

4bi. What gets measured gets managed
4bi. 凡事皆可量化管理

Let’s say you’re a Product Manager at a tech company. You’re tasked with coming up with a new feature for a product and making people pay for it. Maybe you’re coming up with changes to the YouTube algorithm. How do you do this?
假设你是一家科技公司的产品经理，你的任务是为产品开发一项新功能并让人们为此付费。 也许你正在对 YouTube 算法进行更改。 你会怎么做？

Well, first you need data. And then you measure changes in the data over time. And that creates performance metrics. And then you manage the performance metrics.
首先，你需要数据。 然后，你需要随着时间的推移衡量数据的变化。 这就产生了绩效指标。 然后，你就可以管理绩效指标。

If the new feature you make means the metrics go up, then you’ve done a great job improving the product. And when it also helps the company make money, then you’ve achieved the win-win!
如果您制作的新功能意味着指标上升，那么您就出色地改进了产品。 当它还有助于公司赚钱时，你就实现了双赢！

… right? ……对吧？

But here’s the problem… What metrics are you actually measuring and managing?
但问题是……你实际测量和管理的是哪些指标？

In the tech world for example, companies track metric such as Daily Active Users (DAU), Monthly Average Users (MAU), number of times a link is clicked (click-through rate), usage time, etc.
例如，在科技界，公司会跟踪诸如每日活跃用户数 (DAU)、月平均用户数 (MAU)、链接点击次数（点击率）、使用时间等指标。

But do you notice something?
但你注意到什么了吗？

• All of these metrics are used because they’re easy and convenient to measure;
  所有这些指标之所以被使用，是因为它们易于衡量且方便；
• None of these metrics directly actually measure if the product is delivering a good experience for the customer and therefore consumer surplus
  这些指标都没有直接衡量产品是否为客户提供了良好的体验，因此也没有衡量消费者剩余。
• These metrics can go up for reasons unrelated to delivering consumer surplus.
  这些指标可能会因为与提供消费者剩余无关的原因而上升。

So even if you are truly well-meaning, it’s possible to keep pushing for changes that look like product improvements but instead undermine your product and make it worse over time.
因此，即使你真的出于好意，你也很有可能不断推动那些看起来像是产品改进的改变，但这些改变实际上却会损害你的产品，并随着时间的推移使其变得更糟。

And when revenue is involved, there is the pressure to release changes not because it’s good for the customer. But it makes the revenue line go up and doesn’t appear to be harming consumer surplus…
当涉及到收入时，就会有压力要求发布一些改变，不是因为这对客户有利，而是因为它能使收入线 上升，而且看起来不会损害消费者剩余……

So ship the change! And ship the next change! And ship the next change! And ship the…
所以，发布这个改动吧！然后再发布下一个改动！然后再发布下一个改动！然后再发布……

And then one day you wake up and for some reason your product just seems… really terrible. And yet you can’t actually explain when you actually broke your product. The metrics didn’t show anything wrong!
然后有一天你醒来，发现你的产品不知何故变得……非常糟糕。然而，你却无法解释你的产品究竟是什么时候坏掉的。指标没有显示任何问题！

But clearly this is a problem that big and intelligent companies should be able to solve. There’s no way a company like Google could ever break their core product with incredibly stupid decisions and measuring the wrong metrics.
但显然，这是一个大公司和聪明公司应该能够解决的问题。像谷歌这样的公司不可能因为极其愚蠢的决策和错误的指标衡量而破坏他们的核心产品。

4bii. Revenue is addicting like a drug
4bii. 收入就像毒品一样让人上瘾

Watching your revenue line go up is like a drug. It feels good, you constantly want another hit, and it becomes harder over time to achieve the same high you felt the first time.
看着你的收入线 上升就像吸毒一样。这感觉很好，你总是想要再来一次，而且随着时间的推移，要达到你第一次感受到的那种快感会变得越来越难。

This is a problem because once you turn on the revenue tap, it is extremely hard as a business to justify turning it back off. Scope creep and financial pressure will also keep pushing you to just do that little bit more. And you will naturally enshittify your product over time because erosion of consumer surplus in the name of revenue is a one-way road.
这是一个问题，因为一旦你打开了收入的阀门，作为一家企业就很难找到理由再把它关掉。范围蔓延和财务压力也会不断地迫使你“就那么做一点点”。而且，随着时间的推移，你的产品自然会变得越来越糟糕，因为以收入的名义侵蚀消费者剩余是一条不归路。

For gaming, a simple example to point to would be the trend of microtransactions within MMOs despite also having paid member subscriptions. Afterall, the players themselves claim they’re willing to pay for these features.
对于游戏来说，一个简单的例子就是大型多人在线游戏中微交易的趋势，尽管这些游戏也有付费会员订阅。毕竟，玩家自己声称他们愿意为这些功能付费。

But once you can justify to yourself that players should pay for incredibly basic game functionality like name changing, well… the sky’s the limit isn’t it?
但是，一旦你给自己找到理由，认为玩家应该为改名这种极其基础的游戏功能付费，那么……还有什么是不可能的呢？

This is how you end up in a hellhole of game design such as MMOs with pay to skip or constantly pushing the cash shop in the face of players through the UI. Afterall, DAU didn’t go down… right?
这就是你会陷入游戏设计地狱的原因，比如那些充斥着付费跳过内容或通过 UI 不断向玩家兜售现金商店的 MMO 游戏。毕竟，DAU 没有下降……对吧？

An alternative non-gaming example would be Amazon. Once Amazon discovered the advertising drug, it was all downhill for the search function and the spam of sketchy third-party sellers.
一个非游戏领域的例子是亚马逊。自从亚马逊发现了广告这种摇钱树，它的搜索功能和充斥着可疑第三方卖家的垃圾信息就每况愈下了。

If customers are buying more and clicking more, then surely the user experience must be getting better! It’s best not to ask too many deep questions about what’s really lurking behind those sweet sweet advertising dollars…
如果顾客购买得更多，点击得更多，那么用户体验肯定在变得更好！最好不要深究那些甜蜜的广告收入背后真正隐藏着什么……

4c. How does Mihoyo avoid enshittification?
4c. 米哈游如何避免产品体验的恶化？

Avoiding enshittification requires having a very clear design vision and strong company leadership that lets you say “No” to things.
避免产品体验恶化需要非常清晰的设计愿景和强大的公司领导力，让你能够对某些事情说不。

Because commonly used metrics cannot properly measure and monitor consumer surplus, you need to:
因为常用的指标无法准确衡量和监测消费者剩余，所以你需要：

• Create principles about what your product will and will not do;
  为你的产品制定明确的原则，规定它会做什么和不会做什么；
• And then avoid temptation to deviate from those principles;
  然后避免偏离这些原则的诱惑；
• Even if they would make you lots of money or some customers say they want it.
  即使它们会让你赚很多钱，或者一些顾客说他们想要。

You can see this reflected in Mihoyo’s behaviour as a company. For example:
这种理念也反映在米哈游的公司行为中。例如：

• They are cautious to adopt radical changes to the product just because their customers ask for it and say No to a lot of things;
  他们不会仅仅因为玩家的请求而对产品进行彻底的修改，并且对很多事情都持谨慎态度；
• They try to minimize potential for player regret when making system-level changes;
  他们在进行系统级改动时，会尽量减少玩家产生后悔的可能性；
• They adamantly refuse to add complexity to the transaction and monetization systems within the game;
  他们坚决拒绝增加游戏内交易和货币化系统的复杂性；
• They try to understand whether players are satisfied by just directly asking the players through frequent in-game surveys rather than trying to guess based on wishy-washy alternative metrics.
  他们会通过频繁的游戏内调查直接询问玩家，以了解玩家是否满意，而不是试图根据模棱两可的替代指标进行猜测。

4d. What does this have to do with skins?
4d. 这和皮肤有什么关系？

Mihoyo seems incredibly resistant to using skins as a source of monetization in their most recent games Genshin and HSR. What might drive this?
米哈游似乎非常抗拒在他们最近的游戏《原神》和《崩坏：星穹铁道》中使用皮肤作为盈利手段。是什么原因导致了这种情况？

Until they release an official statement, we can at least think about the design factors that would influence this decision.
在他们发布官方声明之前，我们至少可以思考一下影响这一决定的设计因素。

Design Factor 设计因素	Impact 影响
Consumer spending behaviours 消费者消费行为	Does player spending on skins actually result in net new revenue 玩家在皮肤上的消费是否真的能带来净收入？ Or do players have a fixed entertainment budget a month and spending on skins substitutes spending on new gacha banners? 还是说玩家每个月的娱乐预算固定，购买皮肤的支出替代了抽新卡池的支出？ If players want to show how much they love a character, do they buy the skin or just C6 them? 如果玩家想表达对一个角色的喜爱，他们是会选择购买皮肤，还是直接将其升至六命？
Resource allocation 资源分配	Skins require labour hours to produce. Mihoyo is already a world leader for speed of the content releases and their design ambition. 制作皮肤需要投入大量工时。米哈游在内容发布速度和设计雄心方面已经是世界领先水平。 How much more can they take on without compromising the core gameplay experience? 在不影响核心玩法体验的情况下，他们还能承担多少工作量？ And even if they had spare labour capacity, would they rather make a few more skins or just make Natlan more epic? What’s actually more important to them? 即使他们有闲置的人力，他们是更愿意制作更多皮肤，还是让纳塔更加宏大？什么对他们来说更重要？
Character access: Skin target market 角色获取：皮肤目标市场	Genshin’s primary monetization is through restricting access to characters. This isn’t compatible with a skins based approach. Restricting character access deliberately shrinks your skin audience. 原神的盈利模式主要是通过限制角色获取。这与以皮肤为中心的盈利模式并不兼容。限制角色获取会直接缩减皮肤的受众群体。 How many people are really going to buy a Ganyu skin if they don’t own Ganyu? 如果玩家没有甘雨，真的会有人为了皮肤去抽甘雨吗？
Character access: Free Income 角色获取：免费收入	Games with a heavier focus on skin monetization either have complete access to all characters (e.g. DotA), make it possible to grind out enough currency to unlock characters (e.g. LoL, Valorant), or have extremely generous free income (e.g. Azur Lane, GBF) precisely to solve the target market problem. 更注重皮肤盈利的游戏，要么所有角色都能免费获取（例如 DotA），要么可以通过肝游戏获得足够的货币来解锁角色（例如 LoL、Valorant），要么有极其丰厚的免费收入（例如碧蓝航线、碧蓝幻想），正是为了解决目标市场问题。
Social play 社交游戏	Skins are more common in games with cooperative / social play because the skins provide social utility 在多人合作/社交游戏中，皮肤更为常见，因为皮肤提供了社交效用。 e.g. players in Fortnite who don’t use cosmetics get called “Default” as an insult, etc. 例如，在堡垒之夜中，不使用皮肤的玩家会被称为“默认皮肤”，以此作为一种侮辱，等等。 However, Genshin’s primary focus is a single player experience. Skins therefore do not have the same social value to players. 然而，原神的主要侧重点是单人游戏体验。因此，皮肤对玩家来说没有相同的社交价值。
Client modification 客户端修改	You can mod your game files locally to just reskin entire characters or replace them with new models such as Chiori Ori (KR Duck pun). 你可以修改本地游戏文件，为整个角色换肤，或者用新的模型替换它们，比如 Chiori Ori（韩语鸭子双关语）。 In a single player game with no social element, why pay for what you can just mod? 在没有社交元素的单机游戏中，为什么要花钱买你可以通过模组获得的东西呢？ See also: Bethesda Horse Armour 另见：贝塞斯达马甲

These factors imply that Mihoyo has a very clear design vision about what they want their product to be:
这些因素意味着米哈游对他们想要的产品有非常清晰的设计愿景：

• The core product is the open world and combat, and the vast majority of development resources go towards this;
  核心产品是开放世界和战斗，绝大多数开发资源都投入到了这方面；
• Mihoyo has a single primary monetization vehicle (Characters and Weapons / Light Cones);
  米哈游只有一个主要的盈利方式（角色和武器/光锥）；
• This single vehicle is sufficient for extracting money without requiring multiple channels to upsell players;
  仅此一项就足以盈利，而不需要通过多个渠道向玩家推销；
• Mihoyo is willing to say no to making more money if it means maintaining quality of everything else it produces (e.g. not splitting development resources)
  如果这意味着保持其他所有产品的质量，米哈游愿意放弃赚取更多利润（例如，不分散开发资源）

So this is how we end up where we are here today in Genshin. A low volume pipeline of skins that are only ever released when paired with events, and with nearly half of them given away for free anyway.
所以这就是我们今天在原神中所处的位置。一个低产出的皮肤渠道，只有在与活动配对时才会发布，而且其中近一半是免费赠送的。

And Mihoyo is absolutely okay if you don’t agree with this approach.
如果你不同意这种做法，米哈游也完全可以接受。

This is a consequence of having a very clear design vision and strong company leadership that says “No” to things.
这是拥有非常清晰的设计愿景和强大的公司领导层的结果，他们对某些事情说“不”。

4e. The skins monetization trap
4e. 皮肤盈利陷阱

Skins and cosmetics also contain an insidious trap when it comes to monetization.
皮肤和装饰品在盈利模式中也隐藏着一个陷阱。

The traditional thinking behind skins and cosmetics is that they are an easy to develop form of monetization that can exist outside of the core gameplay loop. This is only true up to a limit.
人们对皮肤和装饰品的传统看法是，它们是一种易于开发的盈利模式，可以存在于核心游戏循环之外。但这只在一定程度上是正确的。

Remember from Section 3 that game developers need to create reasons for people to pull for characters through game design. And in Section 3di I mentioned how players will eventually reach character saturation and no longer need to pull for as many characters on their account.
回顾第三节的内容，游戏开发者需要通过游戏设计来创造让人们想要抽取角色的理由。在第三节第三小节中，我提到了玩家最终将达到角色饱和，不再需要为自己的账号抽取那么多角色。

In many ways, the same is true for cosmetics. You might buy a skin for your favourite character or weapon. Maybe a second skin. But the fifth? Tenth? Twentieth?
在很多方面，装饰品也是如此。你可能会为你最喜欢的角色或武器买一件皮肤。也许是第二件皮肤。但第五件呢？第十件呢？第二十件呢？

Remember the original revenue equation:
还记得最初的收入公式吗：

Revenue = Player Desire to Consume – Free Income
收益 = 玩家付费意愿 - 免费收入

Characters are at least tied to gameplay. Therefore gameplay content can influence character sales. Pure cosmetics on the other hand cannot use this lever without becoming “pay to win”. The levers for manipulating the player’s desire to consume are more limited.
角色至少与游戏玩法息息相关。因此，游戏内容会影响角色的销量。另一方面，纯粹的装饰品如果不想变成“付费赢”，就无法利用这一杠杆。操纵玩家消费欲望的杠杆更加有限。

Skins also need to be distinct to draw spending and create the desire to consume. This in turn places pressure on your design vision. You start with benign changes, maybe breaking the colour palette for a character. But eventually you need to explore more options and start breaking things such as the character silhouette and readability. You introduce fancy effects like new animations or particles.
皮肤也需要与众不同才能吸引消费，激发消费欲望。这反过来又给你的设计愿景带来了压力。你从善意的改变开始，也许打破了一个角色的配色方案。但最终你需要探索更多选择，并开始打破角色剪影和可读性等东西。你引入了奇特的效果，比如新的动画或粒子效果。

These new features also set sticky consumer expectations. Players will expect your new features such as particle effects, higher quality meshes and textures, etc. as the new standard of quality. This means that your cosmetics over time can only ever be monotonically increasing in quality. This in turn also drives up the cost of cosmetic development and erodes profits.
这些新功能也设定了消费者难以改变的期望。玩家会将你的新功能（如粒子效果、更高质量的网格和纹理等）视为新的质量标准。这意味着你的装饰品质量只能随着时间的推移单调递增。这反过来也推高了装饰品开发的成本，侵蚀了利润。

Eventually, as a developer you run out of options to get people to buy cosmetics. At this point, the customer base starts to segment:
最终，作为开发者，你会发现吸引人们购买装饰品的选项已经用尽。此时，客户群开始细分：

• Collectors and whales: Much higher satiety limits (e.g. the player that buys every Lux skin no matter what) and willing to pay higher price points as well;
  收藏家和大 R 玩家：饱和度上限高得多（例如，无论什么皮肤都会购买的拉克丝玩家），并且也愿意支付更高的价格；
• Lower spenders: Players who are more sensitive to “value” and become satiated over time.
  低消费玩家：对“价值”更敏感，并且随着时间的推移会逐渐饱和的玩家。

A company therefore needs to both cultivate a population of collectors as well as offer them products to collect. And this is how you end up with League of Legends announcing a 430 USD commemorative in-game skin.
因此，一家公司既需要培养收藏家群体，也需要为他们提供可供收藏的产品。这就是为什么英雄联盟最终会宣布推出价值 430 美元的纪念版游戏皮肤。

This also means that your product is now pivoting toward catering to an explicitly smaller and narrower audience. And this has consequences for your priorities when it comes to what you choose to prioritize in product and feature development.
这也意味着你的产品现在正在转向迎合一个明显更小、更狭窄的受众。这对你选择产品和功能开发的优先级会产生影响。

This is the trap when it comes to cosmetic monetization: Player satiation shrinks your customer base the same way that character releases can as well. And without the core gameplay loop offering levers to drive demand, satiety is much harder to break.
这就是装饰性货币化的陷阱：玩家的饱和度会缩减你的客户群，就像角色发布一样。而且，如果没有核心游戏循环提供拉动需求的杠杆，饱和度就更难打破。

5. Conclusion 5. 结论

So what are the key lessons we have learned during this journey together?
那么，在这一共同旅程中，我们吸取了哪些重要教训？

Section 2. How does revenue even work for gacha companies?
第二部分：扭蛋公司的收入是如何运作的？

1. Revenue for gacha games is determined by
   扭蛋游戏的收入取决于
   • Revenue = Player Desire to Consume (e.g. gacha / Resin refresh / BP / etc.) – Free Income
     收入 = 玩家消费欲望（例如扭蛋/体力恢复/月卡等）- 免费收入
2. Free income acts as a subsidy for players and should be calibrated based on expected player elasticity of demand;
   免费收入相当于对玩家的补贴，应根据玩家预期的需求弹性进行调整；

Section 3. Game Design meets Monetization
第三部分：游戏设计与盈利

3. The key goal in monetization is for your game’s systems to create continuous and regular impulses to spend;
   盈利的关键目标是让你的游戏系统持续、定期地创造消费冲动；
4. A healthy long-term monetization system should therefore have repeatable design levers that can be used to reliably generate demand without compromising the core gameplay experience;
   因此，一个健康的长期盈利系统应该具备可重复的设计杠杆，能够在不损害核心游戏体验的情况下可靠地产生需求；
5. RPG gacha games cannot rely on traditional design tools because the variation in power between players in a gacha game is too wide; 
   角色扮演类扭蛋游戏不能依赖传统的设计工具，因为扭蛋游戏中玩家之间实力的差异太大；
6. Game design must rely on imposing restrictions and these restrictions should synergize with the monetization approach of the game;
   游戏设计必须依靠施加限制，而这些限制应该与游戏的盈利方式相辅相成；
7. For character driven games, the rate of acceptable character releases is governed by how well your game supports excuses to pull for characters;
   对于角色驱动型游戏来说，可接受的角色发布频率取决于你的游戏在多大程度上支持玩家抽取角色的理由；
8. Horniness is a unique factor to encourage player spending but can only be utilised by niche games at scale;
   色情元素是鼓励玩家消费的独特因素，但只有小众游戏才能大规模利用它；

Section 4. Enshittification: When monetization goes wrong
第 4 节. 垃圾化：当货币化出错时

9. Enshittification occurs when companies try to claim too much value and don’t leave enough value for players;
   当公司试图获取过多的价值，而没有给玩家留下足够的价值时，就会发生垃圾化；
10. Enshittification can occur when companies track the wrong metrics and erode consumer surplus by not properly understanding what they are doing;
    当公司跟踪错误的指标，并且由于没有正确理解他们在做什么而侵蚀消费者剩余时，就会发生垃圾化；
11. Even well meaning monetization systems that players themselves ask for can lead to enshittification due to erosion of value;
    即使是玩家自己要求的、出于善意的货币化系统，也可能因为价值的侵蚀而导致垃圾化；

I hope you enjoyed reading this essay as much as I enjoyed writing it.
希望您读这篇短文时，能和我写作时一样愉快。