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Viktor Orbán’s Home for Populist Fugitives
维克托·欧尔班的民粹主义逃亡者之家

Although the Polish public expects the thieves, crooks, and cronies who filled the previous government to be held to account, many who face prosecution are finding refuge in nearby Hungary. If the trend is allowed to continue, the rule of law across the European Union will suffer.
尽管波兰公众期望上届政府中的小偷、骗子和亲信被追究责任,但许多面临起诉的人正在附近的匈牙利寻求庇护。如果这种趋势继续下去,整个欧盟的法治将受到损害。

WARSAW – Marcin Romanowski, a former deputy justice minister under Poland’s ousted Law and Justice (PiS) government, allegedly embezzled more than zł100 million ($24.5 million) while in office. The evidence for the crime is incontrovertible: His closest associate, Tomasz Mraz, has been cooperating with prosecutors, turning over recorded phone calls in which Romanowski and he discussed siphoning money from a public fund intended for crime victims.
华沙 — — 波兰被推翻的法律与司法 (PiS) 政府的前司法部副部长马尔钦·罗曼诺夫斯基 (Marcin Romanowski) 涉嫌在任期间贪污超过 1 亿波兰兹罗提(合 2,450 万美元)。犯罪证据是无可争议的:他最亲密的同伙托马斯·马拉兹一直在与检察官合作,交出了罗曼诺夫斯基和他讨论从一个专门为犯罪受害者设立的公共基金中挪用资金的电话录音

When a parliamentary committee and the prosecutor’s office summoned Romanowski for questioning, he pretended that he was hospitalized, before disappearing without a trace. It soon became clear where he had gone. After the Polish prosecutor’s office issued a Europe-wide arrest warrant and an Interpol Red Notice for him, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that his government would offer asylum to any politicians suffering persecution in Poland. By then, Romanowski apparently had already been in Hungary for a few days.
当议会委员会和检察官办公室传唤罗曼诺夫斯基进行询问时,他假装住院,然后消失得无影无踪。很快就清楚了他去了哪里。在波兰检察官办公室向他发出全欧洲逮捕令和国际刑警组织红色通缉令后,匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班宣布,匈牙利政府将为所有在波兰遭受迫害的政客提供庇护。那时,罗曼诺夫斯基显然已经在匈牙利呆了几天了。

Romanowski is not the first PiS official to flee to Hungary. After being summoned by another parliamentary committee, Daniel Obajtek, the former head of Orlen, Poland’s largest state-owned company, also sought Orbán’s protection. He cynically “ran” for a seat in the European Parliament from Hungarian territory, and only set foot in Poland again after he had won and received parliamentary immunity (the Polish prosecutor has since applied to have this status revoked).
罗曼诺夫斯基并不是第一个逃往匈牙利的法律与公正党官员。波兰最大国有企业Orlen前负责人丹尼尔·奥巴泰克(Daniel Obajtek)在受到另一个议会委员会传唤后,也寻求欧尔班的保护。他愤世嫉俗地从匈牙利境内“竞选”欧洲议会席位,在赢得并获得议会豁免权后才再次踏上波兰(波兰检察官已申请撤销这一身份)。

Protecting corrupt politicians is nothing new for Orbán. He has already granted asylum to former North Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who fled to Hungary to escape a prison sentence on corruption charges. And he allowed former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to hide in the Hungarian embassy during the investigation into his failed coup attempt following his 2022 electoral defeat.
保护腐败政客对欧尔班来说并不是什么新鲜事。他已经向北马其顿前总理尼古拉·格鲁耶夫斯基提供庇护,后者因腐败指控逃往匈牙利。他还允许巴西前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗 (Jair Bolsonaro) 在 2022 年选举失败后未遂政变调查期间躲藏在匈牙利大使馆。

With cynical PiS deputies and ministers avoiding accountability by fleeing to Hungary, I can imagine that the party may even form a “government in exile” for the duration of Donald Tusk’s premiership. In any case, Orbán’s asylum for the corrupt has placed the Tusk government in a difficult position. The public expects accountability for the thieves, crooks, and cronies who mismanaged the country’s affairs under the previous government. But with prosecutions moving too slowly, widespread disappointment has sunk in.
由于愤世嫉俗的法律与公正党代表和部长们逃往匈牙利来逃避责任,我可以想象该党甚至可能在唐纳德·图斯克担任总理期间组建一个“流亡政府”。无论如何,欧尔班对腐败分子的庇护让图斯克政府陷入了困境。公众期望追究上届政府领导下国家事务管理不善的小偷、骗子和亲信的责任。但由于起诉进展过于缓慢,人们普遍感到失望。

Many fear a repeat of what happened in the United States, when the wheels of justice moved too slowly to hold Donald Trump accountable for the attempted coup following the 2020 election. No democracy is safe if politicians can attempt to overthrow it, or skim hundreds of millions of dollars from public coffers, only to slip away to a nearby mafia state to lead quiet, cushy lives.
许多人担心美国会重蹈覆辙,当时正义之轮进展太慢,无法追究唐纳德·特朗普对 2020 年大选后未遂政变的责任。如果政治家试图推翻民主,或者从公共金库中挪用数亿美元,然后逃到附近的黑手党国家,过上平静、安逸的生活,那么任何民主都是不安全的。

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Without the rule of law and political accountability, democratic systems will no longer command the public’s respect or hold any legitimacy. Cynicism will spread, citizens will withdraw from civic engagement, and the very people who fled will have an opportunity to seize the levers of power once again.
没有法治和政治问责,民主制度将不再赢得公众的尊重或具有任何合法性。犬儒主义将会蔓延,公民将退出公民参与,而那些逃离的人将有机会再次掌握权力杠杆。

PiS and Orbán may have won a small, temporary victory over Tusk, but in the long run, Orbán could be the biggest loser. Although he is currently euphoric following Trump’s victory, his country will soon pay the price for his coziness with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A deal that allowed Russian natural gas to transit through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia (which is ruled by another pro-Russian populist), among other countries, expired at the end of 2024, and Ukraine refuses to renew it.
PiS和欧尔班可能暂时战胜了图斯克,但从长远来看,欧尔班可能是最大的输家。尽管他目前对特朗普的胜利感到欣喜若狂,但他的国家很快就会为他与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的亲密关系付出代价。一项允许俄罗斯天然气通过乌克兰转运至匈牙利和斯洛伐克(由另一位亲俄民粹主义者统治)等国家的协议已于 2024 年底到期,乌克兰拒绝续签该协议。

With Poland planning to appeal to the European Commission to initiate proceedings against Hungary under Article 259 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, every law-abiding EU member state should pay close attention to what happens next. If Hungary is allowed to become a haven for corrupt politicians across Europe, the rule of law will suffer everywhere. With the stakes so high, the EU cannot afford to turn a blind eye.

Orbán has been waging a political war on the liberal democratic West for the past decade, becoming a creature of Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As his dependence on them grows, his efforts to subvert European democracy will only intensify. And the more isolated he becomes within Europe, the easier it will be for Russia and China to exploit his weakness. Hungary will become another Belarus, so dependent on foreign dictators that its sovereignty is meaningless.

Orbán’s efforts to undercut the rule of law in European countries may play well among right-wing nativists, but it is not a winning long-term strategy. If your only friends are Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin, you have no friends at all.

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