Britain’s muddle-along economic model
英国的混乱经济模式

Over the past 15 years, Britain’s economy has come to resemble a ship floating aimlessly at sea. Jolted off course by the global financial crisis, several changes of captain and a few wrong turns — Brexit most of all — have since left it adrift and buffeted by economic squalls. More than a week into the UK’s general election campaign, the main parties have trailed some key policies. But neither has given a coherent answer to the central question: what exactly Britain’s economic model should be.
在过去的 15 年里，英国经济已经变得像一艘在海上漂泊的船。受全球金融危机的冲击，几次船长更替和一些错误转向的影响，尤其是脱欧，导致英国经济目前漂泊不定，受到经济风暴的冲击。在英国大选竞选活动进行了一周多之后，主要政党已经提出了一些关键政策。但是，两党都没有给出一个明确的答案来回答中心问题：英国的经济模式究竟应该是什么。

The UK economy is over 20 per cent smaller than if it had it maintained its pre-2008 trend growth rate, though the pandemic and energy price spike due to the Ukraine war have taken a toll. A succession of growth plans, prime ministers and chancellors in recent years have left a confused approach to key areas of economic policy, and a glaring gap where the post-Brexit growth strategy should be.
英国经济比维持其 2008 年前的增长趋势速率小了超过 20%，尽管受到疫情和乌克兰战争导致的能源价格飙升的影响。近年来一系列的增长计划、首相和财政大臣让关键经济政策领域出现了混乱的态势，而英国脱欧后的增长战略应在的地方则空白明显。

Britain cannot continue muddling on. The country must rise to several domestic and international challenges. Lacklustre productivity growth is straining revenues and living standards. Britain’s standing as an international business hub is under increasing pressure. It must also navigate shifts in geopolitics, technology, and demographics. Whoever can most cogently articulate what it wants the country’s economy to be should be entrusted to take it forward.
英国不能继续糊里糊涂地前行。这个国家必须应对多项国内和国际挑战。低迷的生产率增长正使收入和生活水平受到压力。英国作为国际商业中心的地位正面临日益加剧的压力。它还必须应对地缘政治、技术和人口结构的变化。谁能最有力地阐明国家经济的愿景，就应该被委以推动国家前行的重任。

That begins by outlining a clear and realistic growth strategy to provide a — hitherto absent — framework to guide long-term tax, investment and regulatory decisions, and the country’s relationship with the EU. The Conservatives have so far resorted to an ad hoc approach of propping up sectors, while setting out ambitions to be “world-leading” in everything from cryptoassets to the future of transport. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s “securonomics” plan is closer to the big-budget interventionism of America’s “Bidenomics”, though with far smaller financial resources behind it.
这始于概述一个清晰而现实的增长战略，为长期税收、投资和监管决策以及国家与欧盟的关系提供一个迄今缺失的框架。保守党迄今采取了临时方法来支持各个部门，同时设定了从加密资产到未来交通等各个领域“世界领先”的雄心壮志。影子财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯的“安全经济学”计划更接近于美国“拜登经济学”的大规模干预主义，尽管其背后的财政资源要小得多。

First, Britain must decide what it wants to be good at. It cannot compete on all technologies and fronts in the green transition, given the size of its market, capital and work force relative to the US, China and the EU. That means it should create conditions for its comparative advantages — including in financial services, universities, life sciences, and some renewable technologies — to thrive. This would give Britain a surer place in the global economy, rather than spreading itself thinly across numerous sectors. Then it needs to narrowly define where the UK needs a domestic foothold for any national, energy and supply chain security considerations.
首先，英国必须决定自己擅长什么。鉴于其市场规模、资本和劳动力相对于美国、中国和欧盟的规模，它无法在绿色转型的所有技术和领域上竞争。这意味着它应该创造条件，让其比较优势——包括金融服务、大学、生命科学和一些可再生技术——得以蓬勃发展。这将使英国在全球经济中有一个更加稳固的地位，而不是在众多领域中势单力薄。然后，它需要明确定义英国需要在哪些领域具有国内立足点，以考虑国家、能源和供应链安全等因素。

Next, broader growth opportunities, across the UK’s regions and nations, can be unlocked by removing cross-cutting impediments that hinder business and investment in all sectors. That means simplifying planning processes — to get houses, grid connections, and infrastructure built faster, supporting Britain’s vast pools of long-term capital to invest in start-ups, and developing a flexible skills system. A commitment to default regulatory alignment with the EU, which remains the country’s largest trading partner, would also bring much-needed certainty for industry. Divergence should be sought only when it is in Britain’s clear economic interest.
接下来，通过消除跨行业的障碍，可以释放英国各地区和各民族的更广泛增长机会，这些障碍妨碍了所有行业的商业和投资。这意味着简化规划流程——以更快地建造房屋、电网连接和基础设施，支持英国庞大的长期资本池投资初创企业，并发展灵活的技能体系。与仍然是英国最大贸易伙伴的欧盟默认保持监管一致性的承诺也将为行业带来急需的确定性。只有在符合英国明确经济利益时才应寻求分歧。

Drawing up a coherent economic model necessitates difficult trade-offs, which recent governments have been unwilling to acknowledge. It means prioritising strengths and competitiveness, not giving in to powerful lobbies, and potentially upsetting some constituents. That is the economic leadership the country needs.
制定一个连贯的经济模型需要进行艰难的权衡，而最近的政府不愿承认这一点。这意味着要优先考虑实力和竞争力，而不是屈服于强大的游说团体，并可能会让一些利益相关者感到不快。这就是国家需要的经济领导力。

By the end of campaigning, the vision for Britain’s economy must not look as amorphous as it is now. Otherwise, the next government risks continuing to take the country down a path where political expediency trumps economic logic, regulatory nitpicking detracts from strategic direction, and uncertainty stymies businesses, investors, and households. In that case, the UK’s relative decline will be all but set in stone.
在竞选结束时，英国经济的愿景不能再像现在这样模糊不清。否则，下届政府将继续沿着政治权宜主义凌驾于经济逻辑之上、监管琐事分散了战略方向、不确定性阻碍了企业、投资者和家庭的道路前行。在这种情况下，英国的相对衰落几乎是板上钉钉的事。