Transcript  成绩单

Altered states will rule in 2025
改变的州将于 2025 年执政

By Reuters  路透社

This transcript was created using speech recognition software, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript.
此文字记录是使用语音识别软件创建的，可能包含错误。在引用本文字记录之前，请先查看剧集音频。
Disclaimer  免责声明
The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News.
该播客中表达的观点是参与者的观点，而不是路透社新闻的观点。
News clip 1  新闻剪辑1
US stocks finished lower on the first trading day of the year after opening the session higher. Investors started 2025 dealing with the cross currents of solid labor market data, a rising dollar and tumbling Tesla shares.
美国股市今年第一个交易日高开后收低。 2025 年伊始，投资者就要应对稳健的劳动力市场数据、美元上涨和特斯拉股价暴跌的矛盾。
News clip 2  新闻剪辑2
We’re going to be talking, we’ll be talking to President Putin and we’ll be talking to the representatives, Zelenskiy and representatives, from Ukraine. We’ve got to stop it. It’s, it’s carnage.
我们将进行交谈，我们将与普京总统交谈，我们将与代表泽伦斯基和乌克兰代表交谈。我们必须阻止它。这是，这是屠杀。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
The year 2025 is upon us and it’s going to be an interesting year. Donald Trump will soon become president of the United States. Wars are raging in Ukraine and in the Middle East. And there’s a question mark as to whether or not inflation has actually been tamed. At Breakingviews, our columnists spent the latter half of the year thinking up predictions for the months ahead. We’ve tapped our sources to conjure up forecasts for the bond market, obesity treatments, private equity exits, artificial intelligence, and more. These predictions are the focus of this week’s Viewsroom. Welcome back to the Viewsroom, the weekly podcast that invites you, the listener, into a lively discussion about the top stories of the week. I’m your host, Jonathan Guilford.
2025 年即将到来，这将是有趣的一年。唐纳德·特朗普即将成为美国总统。乌克兰和中东地区的战争正在激烈进行。通货膨胀是否真正得到抑制还存在一个问号。在 Breakingviews，我们的专栏作家花了下半年的时间思考未来几个月的预测。我们利用我们的资源对债券市场、肥胖治疗、私募股权退出、人工智能等做出预测。这些预测是本周 Viewsroom 的焦点。欢迎回到 Viewsroom，这是每周一次的播客，邀请您作为听众，参与有关本周热门故事的热烈讨论。我是你们的主持人乔纳森·吉尔福德。
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
And I’m Aimee Donnellan.  我是艾米·唐纳兰。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
So, Aimee, obviously, you know, the old saw about, predictions are hard, especially when they’re about the future. But right now, it seems like an unusually difficult time to forecast even a little way ahead, right. Just given the volatility that we’ve seen in markets. Given the, let’s say, unusual political figures that are moving to the fore. I mean, how has this been kind of looming over your work in the past few months?
所以，艾米，显然，你知道，老话说，预测是很难的，尤其是当它们是关于未来的时候。但现在看来，即使是稍微提前一点，预测也异常困难，对吧。考虑到我们在市场上看到的波动性。假设有一些不寻常的政治人物正在脱颖而出。我的意思是，在过去的几个月里，这种情况对你的工作有何影响？
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
Yeah I think that it’s like safe to say, there’s not very many knowns. And we know, obviously, that Donald Trump is going to be president and we have lots of theories as to what that might look like. But I think apart from that, we’re trying to kind of figure out, in all the things that are, that Breakingviews readers are interested in, so that’s M&A, private equity and bond markets. And, as you said, obesity treatments, all of these things, like, how can we think about them in a, in, you know the theme is Altered States and in an Altered States environment. What how do all these things play out? So, many of our sources have lots of thoughts on those things, we have tried to kind of weight some of them towards, you know, if they were more interesting, we were, you know, they obviously took more precedence, they got bigger reads in our, in our predictions book. But luckily we have Neil Unmack, who took charge of predictions this, this year, so not an easy task. And Jeffrey Goldfarb, obviously as well a very senior editor at Breakingviews, too, to talk us through these predictions. And so, Neil, as somebody who, I mean, we’ve all read the book, but you have extensively read the book, what would your favorite prediction be? What do you think is the most interesting prediction that you have read? Maybe it’s like picking your children --
是的，我认为可以肯定地说，已知的东西并不多。显然，我们知道唐纳德·特朗普将成为总统，我们对这可能会是什么样子有很多理论。但我认为除此之外，我们还试图找出 Breakingviews 读者感兴趣的所有事物，比如并购、私募股权和债券市场。而且，正如您所说，肥胖治疗，所有这些事情，例如，我们如何在您知道的主题是“改变的状态”和“改变的状态”环境中思考它们。所有这些事情是如何发生的？所以，我们的许多消息来源对这些事情有很多想法，我们试图对其中一些进行权衡，你知道，如果它们更有趣，我们，你知道，它们显然更优先，它们变得更大在我们的预测书中读到。但幸运的是，我们有尼尔·昂马克（Neil Unmack）负责今年的预测，所以这不是一件容易的事。杰弗里·戈德法布 (Jeffrey Goldfarb) 显然也是 Breakingviews 的资深编辑，他向我们讲述了这些预测。所以，尼尔，作为一个人，我的意思是，我们都读过这本书，但你也广泛阅读了这本书，你最喜欢的预测是什么？您认为您读过的最有趣的预测是什么？也许这就像挑选你的孩子一样——
Neil Unmack  尼尔·昂马克
Sure, well, all of the views were fascinating, interesting, and a very diverse range of articles. But I really enjoyed the one written by Katrina Hamlin on self-driving cars, because I think that’s one area where we will see quite a lot of advancements this year, particularly with Elon Musk obviously playing a critical role in the US administration, pushing for more, for essentially, for his company, Tesla, to be able to do more in that respect. And already in China, we’re seeing some rapid advancements in self-driving cars. And I think as more and more parts of the, of the globe sort of experiment with this technology, not necessarily fully automated cars, but, you know, cars that are getting closer to that, then we’ll see more and more data and it has the potential to snowball. And obviously, the big question there is simply to what extent will carmakers be able to effectively pass on or charge for this, this privilege to customers or not. And the evidence that we’re starting to see from China, which is obviously the sort of petri dish for the automotive sector, is that people generally expect this kind of technology to be incorporated into most into more and more and cheaper and cheaper cars. So it’s still not clear how much of an opportunity that’s going to be for car makers, even if it is probably a good opportunity for, for people in cars.
当然，所有的观点都很迷人、有趣，而且文章的范围非常多样化。但我真的很喜欢卡特里娜·哈姆林 (Katrina Hamlin) 撰写的关于自动驾驶汽车的文章，因为我认为今年我们将在这一领域看到相当多的进步，特别是埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 显然在美国政府中发挥着关键作用，推动了自动驾驶汽车的发展。更重要的是，他的公司特斯拉能够在这方面做得更多。在中国，我们已经看到自动驾驶汽车取得了一些快速进步。我认为，随着全球越来越多的地方对这项技术进行实验，不一定是全自动汽车，但是，你知道，汽车越来越接近这种技术，那么我们将看到越来越多的数据和它有滚雪球的潜力。显然，最大的问题只是汽车制造商能够在多大程度上有效地将这种特权传递给客户或向客户收取费用。我们开始从中国看到的证据（这显然是汽车行业的培养皿）是，人们普遍期望这种技术能够融入到越来越多、越来越便宜的汽车中。因此，目前还不清楚这会给汽车制造商带来多大的机会，即使这对于汽车里的人来说可能是一个很好的机会。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
Right. And that’s interesting because it pulls together a ton of the threads we’re talking about, right, from AI through to figures like Musk, who is now sort of this oddball right hand man to Donald Trump, through to the relationship between China, the US and the rest of the world, and kind of how that affects one of these legacy and crucially important strategic industries in a bunch of countries. I mean, Jeff, when you’re thinking through kind of some of the big pillars in the book, is there anything that you look at that you think like, look, this is going to be a big story, whether it’s, you know, bond markets trying to get their arms around what’s happening with the US government, whether it’s, you know, AI and the, the expenditures there, like, what is it that jumps out to you from the book?
正确的。这很有趣，因为它汇集了我们正在谈论的大量线索，从人工智能到像马斯克这样的人物，马斯克现在是唐纳德·特朗普的古怪得力助手，再到中国与美国之间的关系。美国和世界其他地区，以及这如何影响许多国家的这些遗产和至关重要的战略产业之一。我的意思是，杰夫，当你思考书中的一些大支柱时，是否有任何你看到的东西会让你觉得，看，这将是一个大故事，无论是，你知道债券市场试图了解美国政府正在发生的事情，无论是人工智能还是那里的支出，比如，你从书中跳出来的是什么？
Jeffrey Goldfarb  杰弗里·戈德法布
Well, yeah, I mean, we tackled a lot about AI in the book, and one of the views I really enjoyed and one of the predictions I really enjoyed was, Jen Saba wrote a piece about how advertising would sort of start to eat AI as, as the technology gets better, they’re going to be increasingly seeking sources of revenue. And pretty much every new technology has leaned on advertising. And so her view is that, hey, I will start to take some of the advertising dollars from other sectors of media, which I think is really great. She’s crunched some numbers on it, and I think it’ll be a big factor in what we you know, what we start to see as an industry taking shape.
嗯，是的，我的意思是，我们在书中讨论了很多关于人工智能的问题，我真正喜欢的观点之一和我真正喜欢的预测之一是，Jen Saba 写了一篇关于广告将如何开始吞噬人工智能的文章因为随着技术的进步，他们将越来越多地寻求收入来源。几乎所有新技术都依赖于广告。所以她的观点是，嘿，我将开始从其他媒体部门获取一些广告收入，我认为这真的很棒。她对此进行了一些数据分析，我认为这将成为我们所了解的一个重要因素，以及我们开始看到的一个正在形成的行业。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
Definitely. And yeah, again, it’s one of those issues where we see a lot of threads kind of crossing over each other. And obviously all of these are constrained by the big picture issues. I wonder if, Neil, maybe you can kind of talk us through a bit on that, because obviously, you know, the careful functioning of capital markets is undergirding a lot of what we’re seeing in AI, whether that’s, you know, how it’s going to interact with, with markets like advertising, how far people are going to be able to push developments like self-driving cars. I mean, can you talk us through maybe a little bit from, let’s say, like the credit investor perspective, because we have a lot of, kind of, you know, big unknowns hurtling towards us. From a policy perspective and from a broader kind of macro perspective, like, how is your thinking shaping around that?
确实。是的，这也是我们看到很多线索相互交叉的问题之一。显然，所有这些都受到大局问题的限制。尼尔，我想知道你是否可以和我们谈谈这个问题，因为很明显，你知道，资本市场的谨慎运作正在支撑我们在人工智能中看到的很多东西，无论是，你知道，它将如何与广告等市场互动，人们将能够在多大程度上推动自动驾驶汽车等发展。我的意思是，您能否从信贷投资者的角度来谈谈我们，因为我们面临着很多巨大的未知因素。从政策角度和更广泛的宏观角度来看，您的想法是如何形成的？
Neil Unmack  尼尔·昂马克
Well, I think in terms of, in terms of what the macro outlook, the book does explore quite a lot of topics, particularly, for example, India. You know, what is the future of India? Does it look more and more like China in terms of growth? But one of the big, the big macro themes, obviously, is the interaction between governments and central banks. So for, for 2024, people came into 2024 expecting much faster rate cuts than than actually materialized in 2025. What we expect is that obviously since, well, since we wrote the book, we’ve already started to see a dialing back of rate cut expectations, particularly in the US and the UK. And I think we’ll see more of that going, going into 2025. So governments generally are unwilling to rein in their finances, and implementing a lot of policies that are essentially inflationary, particularly in the US and, and again in the UK. So we think, even from where we are now in January, we think, going into 2025, there is a potential for, essentially, rate cuts to be less predictable, less frequent than expected, and that, ultimately, will mean much more volatile bond markets and volatile asset prices.
嗯，我认为，就宏观前景而言，这本书确实探讨了很多主题，特别是印度。你知道印度的未来是什么吗？就增长而言，它看起来越来越像中国吗？但显然，最重要的宏观主题之一是政府和央行之间的互动。因此，对于 2024 年，人们预计 2024 年的降息速度将比 2025 年实际实现的速度快得多。我们的预期显然是，自从我们写这本书以来，我们已经开始看到利率回落降低预期，尤其是在美国和英国。我认为，进入 2025 年，我们会看到更多这样的情况发生。因此，政府通常不愿意控制财政，也不愿意实施许多本质上是通货膨胀的政策，特别是在美国和英国。因此，我们认为，即使从目前 1 月份的情况来看，进入 2025 年，降息也有可能本质上更难以预测，降息频率也低于预期，这最终意味着波动性更大债券市场和波动的资产价格。
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
And Jeff, I was curious, as well, because, again, I think there’s a huge amount of interest among Breakingviews readers and listeners to this podcast about M&A, not least because the bankers involved are hoping that things will take off much more so than they have over the past couple of years, where it’s been very light. But I suppose uncertainty, you know, are not that helpful when it comes to M&A, even if there is this sort of exuberance about what Donald Trump is likely to do as US president. I just sort of wondered, what’s your, what’s your crystal ball telling you over in the States about M&A, and where we might see it, and whether it’s going to be big and sizable in the way that, you know, that would get people really excited.
杰夫，我也很好奇，因为我再次认为 Breakingviews 的读者和听众对这个有关并购的播客非常感兴趣，尤其是因为参与其中的银行家希望事情会比这更顺利。他们在过去的几年里做到了，那里的情况非常轻。但我认为，你知道，在并购方面，不确定性并没有多大帮助，即使唐纳德·特朗普作为美国总统可能会采取的行动存在这种热情。我只是有点想知道，你的水晶球在美国告诉你什么是关于并购的，我们在哪里可以看到它，以及它是否会以你知道的方式吸引人们的方式变得很大和相当大真的很兴奋。
Jeffrey Goldfarb  杰弗里·戈德法布
Yeah. I mean, I guess, to start in the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I actually expected 2024 to be quite a big year, because I felt like there was a lot of money pent up that was ready to be deployed. You know, as it turned out, the volume dollar volume of M&A only increased globally by 10% to about 3.2 trillion. And interestingly, the number of deals actually fell to an eight year low. Those are according to some numbers from LSEG, that we’ve seen. But in 2025, it’s sort of, like, when the dealmaking community is a little bit more exuberant. The strategists over at Morgan Stanley have predicted a 50% uptick in deal volume this year, which would be, you know, which would obviously push us back close to $5 trillion worth of M&A. And a lot of that is on the back of the idea of a laxer, well, it’s two things, it’s a laxer regulatory environment under Donald Trump. And it’s, I think the scale of money that is now being squeezed in private equity that needs to be deployed, because, another year has gone by without nearly enough deals being done, and they haven’t been able to get money back to investors quickly enough. And that’s got to pick up the pace. So those two things are happening. And I guess one of the things that we explored on the regulatory front was sort of, if you take the premise that antitrust oversight will be looser under Donald Trump, then there are some deals, maybe, that were kicking around that got sort of put on the shelf, that, may, that may be back on the table. We’ve actually already seen it, you know, this week we’ve had Getty Images announcing a deal to merge with Shutterstock, which is a deal that would probably not have been announced six months ago. And it looks like they’re going to test the regulatory waters. One that we kind of thought about was, you know, Google had thought about doing a couple of very big deals last year, and then, ultimately, they did not go forward, in part because Big Tech was the most scrutinized industry under under the Biden administration. And one of the ones they thought about was buying a cybersecurity company called Wiz. And, you know, I’m wondering if, if that deal maybe comes back onto the table now.
是的。我的意思是，我想，为了全面披露，我应该说，我实际上预计 2024 年将是相当重要的一年，因为我觉得有很多资金被压抑，准备部署。你知道，事实证明，全球并购金额仅增长了 10%，达到约 3.2 万亿美元。有趣的是，交易数量实际上降至八年来的最低点。这些是根据我们所看到的伦敦证券交易所集团的一些数据得出的。但到 2025 年，交易社区会变得更加活跃。摩根士丹利的策略师预测今年的交易量将增长 50%，这显然会推动我们的并购规模接近 5 万亿美元。其中很大一部分是基于宽松的想法，嗯，有两件事，那就是唐纳德·特朗普领导下的监管环境更加宽松。我认为私募股权投资现在需要部署的资金规模受到挤压，因为又一年过去了，交易却几乎没有完成，而且他们无法将资金返还给投资者足够快。这必须加快步伐。所以这两件事正在发生。我想我们在监管方面探讨的一件事是，如果你假设唐纳德·特朗普领导下的反垄断监管将会更加宽松，那么也许会有一些交易被搁置。放在架子上，那，可能，那可能又回到桌子上。实际上我们已经看到了，您知道，本周 Getty Images 宣布了一项与 Shutterstock 合并的交易，这项交易可能不会在六个月前宣布。看起来他们将测试监管领域。 我们想到的一个是，你知道，谷歌去年曾考虑进行几笔非常大的交易，但最终，他们没有继续进行，部分原因是大型科技是在该法案下受到最严格审查的行业。拜登政府。他们考虑的事情之一是收购一家名为 Wiz 的网络安全公司。而且，你知道，我想知道这笔交易现在是否可以重新回到桌面上。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
It’s a really interesting one on that front, right, because, like, there are all these tea leaves people are trying to read. And I know that we’ve written about, you know, will Big Tech continue to be kind of strictly scrutinized under a Trump administration? Because you have folks like Vance who seem to share a little bit of the kind of like Lina Khan-era hostility to that sector, over, like, once you step outside that sector, it feels like the possibilities, definitely, like, well, they couldn’t get worse, so presumably they must get better. And I know, Aimee, obviously you’ve been thinking a lot about the obesity drug craze. And you wrote a piece that kind of touched on the possibilities coming out of that. It’s another one of these kind of, like, big themes that doesn’t really impinge on all these questions about Big Tech. And what do you foresee there?
在这方面，这是一个非常有趣的问题，对吧，因为，人们正在尝试阅读所有这些茶叶。我知道我们已经写过，你知道，在特朗普政府的领导下，大型科技公司是否会继续受到严格审查？因为像万斯这样的人似乎对这个领域有一点像莉娜·汗时代的敌意，一旦你走出那个领域，感觉就像是可能性，绝对，就像，嗯，他们不可能变得更糟，所以想必他们必须变得更好。我知道，艾米，显然你一直在思考肥胖药物热潮。你写了一篇文章，谈到了由此产生的可能性。这是另一种类似的大主题，但并没有真正影响有关大型科技的所有这些问题。您对此有何预见？
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
Yeah, I mean, it’s another massive year for weight loss drugs, 2024 was. And I don’t know if any of you watched the Golden Globes, where, you know, the host said it was the year of Ozempic, looking out at the crowd of extremely slim celebrities that were looking back at her. And so the upshot of Eli Lilly, which is, you know, makes Mounjaro and Zepbound, which are the diabetes and weight loss drugs that they have, and Novo Nordisk, which has Ozempic and with Wegovy, is that they are awash with cash, and they are going to build up huge stores of cash by selling these drugs. And it’s, what do they do with that money? And the truth is they are on a bit of a limited run with this because they you know, they have patents. For example, Novo Nordisk’s patent runs out at the start of the 2030s, basically. And so they only have a certain amount of time to gather up as much market share as they possibly can in weight loss and diabetes. So it would make sense, I was suggesting, for them to, not only expand in these markets, because there are other companies that are coming along with with promising weight loss drugs that they could buy up, and bring them into their portfolio, and they would get even more market share. But, as well as that, for Novo Nordisk, for example, it makes sense for them to diversify a little bit because they are very much focused now on, really, two diseases, which is diabetes and obesity. And they’re actually, it’s actually now quite a big overlap between those two, because you don’t really get Type 2 diabetes without obesity. And if you’re treating obesity, what happens to Type 2 diabetes? So we kind of, gave a few kind of examples. There’s this Argenx, which is a big one, of the big biotechs that they could buy, which would be a really, really large deal, a big pharma deal. And we used to see very large pharma deals and then we just started to see companies doing bolt-ons. And so I think, yeah, I think they could be the ones that lead some pretty big M&A. And, as I said, they don’t need debt, they don’t need, they don’t need equity, they don’t need much at all because they have an awful lot of cash that they can play around with.
是的，我的意思是，2024 年是减肥药的又一个重要的一年。我不知道你们有没有人看过金球奖，你知道，主持人说今年是 Ozempic 年，看着外面一群极其苗条的名人正在回头看她。因此，礼来公司（Eli Lilly）的结果是，他们生产了 Mounjaro 和 Zepbound，这是他们拥有的糖尿病和减肥药物，而诺和诺德公司（Novo Nordisk）则拥有 Ozempic 和 Wegovy，他们拥有大量现金，他们将通过销售这些药物积累大量现金。他们用这些钱做什么？事实上，他们在这方面的运作有点有限，因为他们拥有专利。例如，诺和诺德的专利基本上在 2030 年代初就到期了。因此，他们只有一定的时间来在减肥和糖尿病领域尽可能多地占据市场份额。因此，我建议他们不仅要在这些市场上扩张，因为还有其他公司正在推出有前景的减肥药物，他们可以购买这些药物，并将其纳入自己的投资组合，并且他们将获得更多的市场份额。但除此之外，以诺和诺德为例，他们有必要进行一点多元化，因为他们现在非常关注两种疾病，即糖尿病和肥胖症。事实上，现在这两者之间有很大的重叠，因为如果没有肥胖，你就不会真正患上 2 型糖尿病。如果您正在治疗肥胖症，那么 2 型糖尿病会怎样？所以我们举了一些例子。 Argenx 是他们可以购买的大型生物技术公司中的一个大公司，这将是一笔非常非常大的交易，一笔大型制药交易。我们曾经看到非常大的制药交易，然后我们才开始看到公司进行补充。所以我认为，是的，我认为他们可能是领导一些相当大的并购的人。而且，正如我所说，他们不需要债务，他们不需要，他们不需要股权，他们根本不需要太多，因为他们有大量现金可以使用。
Neil Unmack  尼尔·昂马克
But I guess it’s quite a risky proposition if you’re an investor in one of these companies, because they have a huge incentive now to do deals, or, the only alternative is to return that, whatever it is, $80 billion, to, to investors, which they clearly don’t want to do. So there’s clearly a risk of overpaying there.
但我想，如果你是这些公司之一的投资者，这是一个相当危险的提议，因为他们现在有巨大的动力去做交易，或者，唯一的选择就是将 800 亿美元返还给，无论它是什么，对投资者来说，他们显然不想这样做。因此，显然存在支付过高的风险。
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
That’s absolutely right. Yeah, there is. And there is such, there’s such a charge into this market as well from everybody, and, like, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Roche, everyone is trying to either buy up small biotechs that are making these drugs or develop them themselves. So, yeah, there is a, there’s definitely a premium on, on, on these, on these companies that are doing these, that are making these drugs. So, yeah, there is a, there is a risk that there is a bit of a fight for them as well. So, yeah, definitely an interesting space to watch.
这是绝对正确的。是的，有。每个人都对这个市场充满了热情，比如阿斯利康、辉瑞、罗氏，每个人都在试图要么收购正在生产这些药物的小型生物技术公司，要么自己开发它们。所以，是的，对于这些正在做这些、正在制造这些药物的公司来说，肯定有溢价。所以，是的，他们也存在一些战斗的风险。所以，是的，这绝对是一个值得关注的有趣空间。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
Yeah, right. And if you think about it, right, you look at these kind of areas like, the, the, not only the kind of blue chip investor rush into things like the Ozempic wave or, you know, let’s say, Tesla, companies like this. There’s also like that whole quantum of, of kind of dark matter in the markets, right? Which is the, the meme stock craze. And I know Karen obviously was, our colleague Karen wrote a piece about OpenAI and whether it could try to harness that to go into the public markets. And, I mean, you seem to see, like, this insatiable appetite for cash to move around into these really exciting places. And I don’t know if, Jeff, Neil, like, you have thoughts about kind of what that means, not only for OpenAI and whether it’s finally going to start, like, really tapping the public markets in a real way, but also stuff like, you know, we mentioned Elon Musk, SpaceX is still out there. It’s still, you know, it’s beginning to move toward profitability, it still has like a vast amount of capital expenditure that is kind of foreseen to expand out that gigantic network. Like, how do you foresee, I guess, A, like, the success of these companies that, that are kind of building out these new areas of the economy, and, B, kind of, I guess, how markets will continue to treat them?
是的，对。如果你仔细想想，你就会看到这些领域，比如，不仅是那些蓝筹股投资者涌入诸如臭氧浪潮之类的领域，或者，你知道，比方说，特斯拉，这样的公司。市场上也有大量的暗物质，对吗？这就是模因股票热潮。我知道凯伦显然是，我们的同事凯伦写了一篇关于 OpenAI 以及它是否可以尝试利用它进入公开市场的文章。而且，我的意思是，你似乎看到了这种对现金的贪得无厌的胃口，被转移到这些真正令人兴奋的地方。我不知道，杰夫、尼尔，你们是否想过这意味着什么，不仅对 OpenAI 意味着什么，以及它是否最终会开始，比如，真正以真正的方式进入公开市场，而且比如，我们提到过埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk)，SpaceX 仍然存在。你知道，它仍然开始走向盈利，它仍然有大量的资本支出，预计可以扩大这个庞大的网络。比如，你如何预见，我猜，A，比如，这些公司的成功，这些公司正在建设这些新的经济领域，以及，B，我猜，市场将如何继续对待他们？
Jeffrey Goldfarb  杰弗里·戈德法布
Well, I mean, one thing on the SpaceX question is quite interesting. I mean, our colleague Rob Cyran wrote a really fascinating prediction about SpaceX and sort of took it looking at, comparing it to Tesla, which of course, like, as of now has like something like a $1.3 trillion market cap. SpaceX is valued privately at, I think in its last fundraising round, with something around $350 billion. There doesn’t seem to be any real rhyme or reason for these valuations. They’re both highly speculative companies. But if you take a step back, as Rob did, and you think about it, I mean, in a way SpaceX ought to, be valued quite a bit more by, you know, a lot more than where it is now, or has the chance to get there, because of Starlink, you know, which is ultimately this, shaping up to be a monopoly, a satellite service that’s operating in over 100 countries. And, whereas Tesla is, you know, has a lot of competition in, certainly in, in electric vehicles, and formidable competition at that, companies like BYD. But, you know, SpaceX is massively profitable, looks like it’s going to be a monopoly, and is a whole new area that’s much more, actually feels more tangible than some of the speculative stuff that’s, that’s hovering around Tesla. So, you know, I mean, you could see, you could see that business. I’m not sure it’s going to go public in 2025, but you could certainly see that business sort of becoming more valuable, or as valuable, as Tesla in the years to come.
嗯，我的意思是，关于 SpaceX 问题的一件事非常有趣。我的意思是，我们的同事 Rob Cyran 写了一篇关于 SpaceX 的非常有趣的预测，并将其与特斯拉进行了比较，当然，特斯拉目前的市值约为 1.3 万亿美元。我认为在上一轮融资中，SpaceX 的私下估值约为 3500 亿美元。这些估值似乎没有任何真正的规律或理由。它们都是高度投机的公司。但如果你像 Rob 那样退后一步，仔细想想，我的意思是，在某种程度上，SpaceX 的估值应该比现在高得多，或者已经比现在高得多。到达那里的机会，因为星链，你知道，最终形成了垄断，一种在 100 多个国家/地区运营的卫星服务。而且，你知道，特斯拉在电动汽车方面有很多竞争，而且在这方面的竞争也很激烈，而像比亚迪这样的公司。但是，你知道，SpaceX 利润丰厚，看起来它将成为垄断企业，而且是一个全新的领域，比围绕特斯拉的一些投机性东西更实际、更切实。所以，你知道，我的意思是，你可以看到，你可以看到这项业务。我不确定它是否会在 2025 年上市，但你肯定会看到该业务在未来几年变得更有价值，或者像特斯拉一样有价值。
Neil Unmack  尼尔·昂马克
And it’s interesting because, of course, as you say, SpaceX is private and Tesla is public. And one often thinks that the private markets are where the froth is at the moment. And yet, at least from a valuation perspective, it seems clearly that Tesla is, is the more overvalued of the two. And, you know, that’s potentially another reason why someone like OpenAI may ultimately decide it needs to go public. But it’s kind of tapped out of the private markets and there is still a capacity to get, you know, rosier valuations for certain companies in the public market.
这很有趣，因为，当然，正如你所说，SpaceX 是私营公司，而特斯拉是上市公司。人们常常认为私人市场是目前泡沫所在的地方。然而，至少从估值的角度来看，特斯拉显然是两者中被高估的一个。而且，你知道，这可能是 OpenAI 这样的公司最终决定需要上市的另一个原因。但它是从私募市场中挖掘出来的，而且仍然有能力在公开市场上为某些公司获得更乐观的估值。
Jeffrey Goldfarb  杰弗里·戈德法布
I mean, we’ve also, I mean, on that point also, I would just say that, you know, last year, towards the end of last year, 2024, we had a company called Databricks raise $10 billion in one go, which equated to something like 25% of all IPO proceeds over the year. So, I mean, there is, to your point, Neil, like, the private markets are definitely where the action is. And there does seem to be some expectation that the public markets will regain their mojo, at least in terms of IPOs. We’ve certainly seen two consecutive years of the S&P 500 going up over 20%, which is, you know, sort of amazing. But it does, but as you say, the private markets have really been where the action is.
我的意思是，我的意思是，在这一点上，我只想说，去年，也就是 2024 年年底，我们有一家名为 Databricks 的公司一次性筹集了 100 亿美元，这相当于全年 IPO 总收益的 25% 左右。所以，我的意思是，就尼尔的观点而言，私人市场绝对是最活跃的地方。人们似乎确实预计公开市场将重获活力，至少在首次公开募股方面是如此。我们确实看到标准普尔 500 指数连续两年上涨超过 20%，这有点令人惊讶。但确实如此，但正如你所说，私人市场确实是最活跃的地方。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
Right. And, of course, you know, that conversation about, you know, whether the action is in private markets or public markets writ large, it still depends on this broader notion of stability, right. And the ability of markets to kind of continue allocating capital without the wheels coming off. And I think a big question about that has been, like, what is going to happen to the bond market under a Trump administration, right. Because, you know, a priori you would think, okay, tax cuts, yes, spending cuts, not so popular. Maybe that doesn’t actually happen. You get a really difficult US fiscal situation. You have tariffs thrown in there. You have a lot of kind of chaos with exchange rates. I mean, how are you thinking about, I guess, the potential for really, I guess, extreme outcomes here?
正确的。当然，你知道，关于无论是在私人市场还是公开市场上采取行动的对话，它仍然取决于这种更广泛的稳定概念，对吧。以及市场在不发生故障的情况下继续配置资本的能力。我认为一个大问题是，特朗普政府领导下的债券市场将会发生什么，对吧。因为，你知道，你首先会想，好吧，减税，是的，削减开支，不那么受欢迎。也许这实际上并没有发生。美国的财政状况非常困难。你那里有关税。汇率方面存在很多混乱。我的意思是，我想，你如何看待这里真正的、我想的极端结果的可能性？
Jeffrey Goldfarb  杰弗里·戈德法布
Yeah. I mean, I guess to circle back to what Neil was saying at the beginning about the the the conflict we’re going to see between sort of central banks and and legislators, lawmakers, politicians. You know, our colleague, Gabe Rubin down in Washington, who’s obviously going to be very busy this year, you know, took an interesting point, which is that the Trump, one of the hallmarks of Trump’s MO, is sort of just bullying his way through everything and, and the bravado that he carries himself with through, you know, as we just saw in the, in the House of Representatives and choosing the speaker. And he just seems to always get his way in that way. And I think, you know, one of the things Gabe was saying that, is that the bond market is not not so easily bullied. And, you know, he’s got these, these fiscal policies that he, that are at least being discussed, about tariffs, tax cuts, you know, deportations, all of which are inflationary on their face. And so, you know, how is the United States going to keep borrowing in the face of that? And, you know, my sense is, and I think Gabe’s is as well, is that, that the bond market will push back on all of this. And ultimately, even if Congress is willing to go along with it, and CEOs are excited about the idea of tax cuts, and, you know, all of this sort of animal spirits, that the bond market will have its say in 2025 about exactly how much the United States is, you know, able to do.
是的。我的意思是，我想回到尼尔一开始所说的关于我们将看到中央银行与立法者、立法者、政客之间的冲突。你知道，我们在华盛顿的同事加布·鲁宾（Gabe Rubin）今年显然会非常忙碌，你知道，他提出了一个有趣的观点，那就是特朗普，特朗普的 MO 的标志之一，有点欺负他的他经历了一切，而且他表现得虚张声势，你知道，正如我们刚才在众议院和选择议长中看到的那样。他似乎总是以这种方式达到目的。我认为，加布所说的其中一件事是，债券市场并不那么容易被欺负。而且，你知道，他有这些，这些财政政策，他至少正在讨论，关于关税、减税、你知道、驱逐出境，所有这些从表面上看都是通货膨胀的。那么，你知道，面对这种情况，美国将如何继续借款呢？而且，你知道，我的感觉是，而且我认为加布的感觉也是如此，债券市场将抵制所有这一切。最终，即使国会愿意同意，首席执行官们对减税的想法感到兴奋，而且，你知道，所有这些动物精神，债券市场将在 2025 年确切地拥有自己的发言权你知道，美国能做到多少。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
Right. Okay. And so, obviously, a lot of this is very future facing, we’re thinking about big heady topics from AI to self-driving to whether the capital markets will collapse. And there was one more piece that I did just want to touch on. Aimee, I know you edited a piece by a colleague, Jennifer, about whether smartphones have actually reached the crest of their popularity and whether we’re going to see a kind of, let’s say, not exactly return to nature, but a return to the brick phone. I just wonder if you could if you could just expand on that a little bit for us.
正确的。好的。因此，显然，很多事情都是面向未来的，我们正在考虑从人工智能到自动驾驶，再到资本市场是否会崩溃等令人兴奋的话题。我只想谈一谈另外一件事情。艾米，我知道你编辑了同事詹妮弗的一篇文章，内容是关于智能手机是否真的已经达到了普及的顶峰，以及我们是否会看到一种，比如说，不完全回归自然，而是回归到砖头电话。我只是想知道您是否可以为我们扩展一下这一点。
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
So, yeah, I mean, we can all probably, in this demographic on this podcast, cast our minds back to the Nokia brick phone, which was very limited. You could text. You could ring people --
所以，是的，我的意思是，在这个播客的这一人群中，我们可能都可以把我们的注意力转回诺基亚砖头手机，它的功能非常有限。你可以发短信。你可以给别人打电话——
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
You could play Snake --
你可以玩贪吃蛇——
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
Snake. I loved Snake. Used to eat the battery, though. But yeah, so it was this very simplistic phone that just allowed you to communicate. And I think that, what was so interesting about Jennifer’s piece is I think that a lot of people, when you, when you speak to people about smartphones, social media, they’re very concerned typically about their kids and how sort of addicted their kids are to social media, the dangers, mental health. And there’s a lot of surveys and a lot of research now being done talking about these dangers. And I think that it’s not so much the demand from the young people that they don’t want a smartphone anymore. It’s that the schools, the people that are in charge of the mental health of these people are going to make decisions that bring back these brick phones. And you’re already seeing that, so, Eton, which I think one of our colleagues on this podcast went to, they are actually offering Nokia brick phones to their, to their students. And there’s lots of different schools that have banned phones altogether. So you can’t bring a phone into, like, many secondary schools. Primary schools have done that as well, so elementary schools in the US. And so this is obviously a problem if you are Apple and if you are Samsung, which are trying to sell smartphones there. They’re continuously trying to do this amid Australia banning social media, banning social media to under-16s. So what Jennifer was discussing is that there is a, there is a choice for these companies. They can try and sort of address this issue, which is come up with very restrictive phones themselves that actually have proper controls on them. But the problem with that is that they’re probably going to be difficult for the parents to administer and maybe easy for the kids to work around. And an easier thing to do, the sort of upshot, the, you know, the final solution to this, is really that they might just end up with, saying it’s much easier for me to give you a brick phone. You can ring me if you need me. You can text me if you need me, and you don’t need anything else. So that, that is sort of the, the interesting, and I think it’s a sort of societal change, which, as I said, I think that you have sort of reached the sort of peak smartphone, where people are starting to see that there is quite a big danger for, for young people using these devices.
蛇。我喜欢蛇。不过，曾经吃过电池。但是，是的，正是这款非常简单的手机让您可以进行交流。我认为，詹妮弗的文章如此有趣的是，我认为很多人，当你与人们谈论智能手机、社交媒体时，他们通常非常关心他们的孩子以及他们的沉迷程度。孩子们面对社交媒体、危险、心理健康。现在正在进行大量调查和研究来讨论这些危险。我认为年轻人不再想要智能手机并不是因为他们的需求太大。学校、负责这些人心理健康的人将做出决定，带回这些砖头手机。你已经看到了，所以，伊顿公学，我想我们这个播客的一位同事也去过，他们实际上正在向他们的学生提供诺基亚砖头手机。有很多不同的学校完全禁止使用手机。所以你不能把手机带进很多中学。小学也这样做了，美国的小学也是如此。因此，如果你是苹果公司和三星公司，这显然是一个问题，因为它们正试图在那里销售智能手机。在澳大利亚禁止社交媒体、禁止 16 岁以下青少年使用社交媒体的情况下，他们一直在努力做到这一点。所以詹妮弗正在讨论的是这些公司有一个选择。他们可以尝试解决这个问题，这是因为手机本身具有非常严格的限制，实际上对它们有适当的控制。 但问题是，它们对于父母来说可能很难管理，而对于孩子来说可能很容易解决。更容易做的事情，那种结果，你知道，最终的解决方案，实际上是他们最终可能会说，对我来说给你一部砖头手机要容易得多。如果你需要我可以给我打电话。如果你需要我，你可以发短信给我，不需要其他任何东西。所以，这有点有趣，我认为这是一种社会变革，正如我所说，我认为你已经达到了智能手机的巅峰，人们开始看到对于使用这些设备的年轻人来说，这是一个相当大的危险。
Jonathan Guilford  乔纳森·吉尔福德
Got it. Okay, so, Altered States will see us undo the the Paleolithic revolution in technology. And with that, thank you so much, Jeff, Neil, and Aimee, for talking us through Breakingviews predictions for 2025.
知道了。好的，所以，《改变的国家》将见证我们消除旧石器时代的技术革命。在此，非常感谢杰夫、尼尔和艾米向我们讲述 Breakingviews 对 2025 年的预测。
Neil Unmack  尼尔·昂马克
Thanks.  谢谢。
Aimee Donnellan  艾米·唐纳兰
Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Oliver Taslic in London. You can listen to a new episode of The Viewsroom every Thursday on the Reuters app or your favorite platform. And don’t forget to tune in to our sister podcast, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. If you like what you heard, please follow the Viewsroom and let us know what you thought. And check out our views on the biggest stories in business and finance every day at Breakingviews.com and Reuters.com.
感谢您收听。该播客由伦敦的 Oliver Taslic 制作。您可以每周四在路透社应用程序或您最喜欢的平台上收听 The Viewsroom 的新一集。不要忘记每周二收听我们的姊妹播客《The Big View》，以及路透社团队的其他精彩播客。如果您喜欢所听到的内容，请关注 Viewsroom 并让我们知道您的想法。每天在 Breakingviews.com 和Reuters.com 上查看我们对商业和金融领域重大新闻的看法。