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The Stock Market’s Magnificent Seven Is Now the Fab Four

It is a bullish signal that the market is rallying without the likes of Apple and Tesla, some investors say

Updated April 1, 2024 at 12:07 am ET

By some metrics, Nvidia has displaced Tesla as the most popular stock among individual investors. Photo: ritchie b tongo/Shutterstock

The Magnificent Seven trade is beginning to fizzle—and yet, the stock market is still heading higher.

The S&P 500 climbed 10% in the first quarter, its best start to a year since 2019, even though two of its biggest constituents suffered double-digit declines.

shares fell 11% in the first three months of the year, while dropped almost 30%. shares sputtered for much of the period before making a run in the past three weeks and ending up 8%.

The other four big tech stocks in the group known as the Magnificent Seven—

, , , —continued their meteoric run and outpaced the broader market. Some market strategists have dubbed them the new Fab Four.


Some investors say it is a bullish signal that the market is still rallying without the likes of Apple and Tesla because it means other groups are taking part. All of the S&P 500’s sectors, except real estate, logged gains in the first quarter. Small-caps, industrial and financial-services stocks are among those that jumped, fueling bets that the broader market might have more room to run.

Much of the enthusiasm is tied to hopes that the economy has escaped a deep recession and that the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to cutting interest rates, even if not at the pace some investors had previously hoped. A frenzy over the future of artificial intelligence has added to the zeal.

“If you’d have told me eight weeks ago that Apple and Tesla would be down as much as they are, oh and by the way, you’re punting when you’re going to do the rate cuts and you’re getting less rate cuts, I would have assumed the market would be down,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

To be sure, some investors worry the divergence in the big tech stocks is a sign of exhaustion in the rally and question whether future gains will be harder to achieve from here. The S&P 500’s market value has swelled more than $9 trillion since late October, and the index has set 22 record closes in 2024. 

In the coming days, investors trying to gauge the trajectory of the market and economy will parse the release of U.S. manufacturing data Monday and the monthly jobs report Friday.


Nvidia continues to be a stock-market star. The graphics-chip maker has indicated demand for the computing power that underlies AI remains astronomical. Its shares have jumped more than 80% to start the year, after more than tripling in 2023. 

By some metrics, Nvidia has displaced Tesla as the most popular stock among individual investors. It is currently the biggest average holding in individual investors’ portfolios, at about 9%, VandaTrack data show.

Meta shares, meanwhile, have soared partly thanks to Meta’s investments in artificial intelligence that have made targeted ads smarter. The social-media company recently said it would pay its first shareholder dividend. Microsoft stole the crown of biggest U.S. company from Apple earlier this year, with a valuation that topped $3 trillion, and Amazon has sharply improved its profitability.

Despite their recent gains, some of the stocks look less pricey than they did last year. Nvidia is trading at 35 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, below its peak of 62 in May of last year. Amazon’s multiple is 40, down from 2023’s high of 62. The S&P 500 is trading at 21 times future earnings, slightly up from last year’s highs of 19.
尽管最近有所收益,但一些股票看起来比去年便宜。Nvidia 的交易倍数为 35 倍,低于去年 5 月的 62 倍峰值。亚马逊的倍数为 40 倍,低于 2023 年的 62 倍高点。标普 500 指数的交易倍数为 21 倍,略高于去年的 19 倍高点。

The Fab Four are responsible for nearly half of the S&P 500’s first-quarter advance, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. 

Joseph Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, said he expects investors to rotate out of big tech stocks and funnel into other sectors as the year progresses. That is largely because the earnings of the other 493 companies in the index are expected to outperform those of the Magnificent Seven by the fourth quarter. 
约瑟夫·费拉拉,Gateway 投资顾问的投资策略师,表示他预计投资者将在今年逐渐从大型科技股中撤出,并转向其他行业。这主要是因为预计指数中其他 493 家公司的收益将在第四季度超过这七家公司的收益。


“The fact that the market is still holding these levels and trading up without that full force of the Magnificent Seven is actually a really positive thing,” he said. 

Chip maker Nvidia broke into the exclusive club of companies that have a $2 trillion market cap. WSJ’s Asa Fitch breaks down how Nvidia got there—and why AI is fueling the company’s rapid growth. Photo illustration: Jordan Kranse

Jonathan Golub, a strategist at UBS, said one reason Magnificent Seven’s earnings dominance could end is because it will be hard to top the explosive growth they posted at the end of last year. Those results looked like blockbuster beats when compared with 2022’s weaker numbers, he said in a recent research note.
乌 BS 的策略师乔纳森·戈鲁布表示,华丽七人团队的盈利优势可能会结束的一个原因是,他们去年年底发布的爆炸性增长很难超越。他在最近的一份研究报告中表示,与 2022 年较弱的数据相比,这些结果看起来像是巨大的胜利。

Last year, any hint of weakness in the Magnificent Seven would have sent the broader market tumbling. In fact, for much of the year, those seven stocks were responsible for all of the S&P 500’s advance.
去年,任何对“辉煌七人组”弱势的暗示都会导致整个市场下跌。事实上,在大部分时间里,这七只股票是标普 500 指数上涨的全部原因。

This year is a different story. Tesla is struggling on numerous fronts. The electric-vehicle maker is facing pressure from Chinese competitors, which have rapidly expanded their presence around the globe in recent years. It has also warned of notably slower growth in 2024, and its profit margins have taken a hit. 
今年是一个不同的故事。特斯拉在许多方面都面临困境。这家电动汽车制造商正面临来自中国竞争对手的压力,这些竞争对手在近年来迅速扩大了全球业务。特斯拉还警告称 2024 年增长速度明显放缓,利润率也受到了打击。


Apple’s woes have been mounting, too. The Justice Department recently sued the company, accusing it of monopolistic behavior. European authorities are cracking down on its app store. Plus, it is facing another weak iPhone demand cycle, and investors are worried that Apple is behind in the current wave of excitement around AI. 
苹果的困境也在不断加剧。司法部最近起诉该公司,指控其垄断行为。欧洲当局正在打击其应用商店。此外,苹果正面临另一个需求疲软的 iPhone 周期,投资者担心苹果在当前人工智能热潮中落后。

Bespoke Investment Group data show Apple shares underperformed the S&P 500 over the 200 days through Tuesday by the widest margin since October 2013. 

Write to Hardika Singh at hardika.singh@wsj.com

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Appeared in the April 1, 2024, print edition as 'Wall Street’s Magnificent Seven Narrows to Become the Fab Four'.