Opec+逐步取消减产计划或将影响欧洲酸油价格
如果欧佩克+按计划取消自愿减产，欧洲的原油价格可能会面临压力，但利比亚出口中断可能会缓和这一影响。
欧佩克+联盟的八个成员国——沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼——计划从今年 10 月开始，分 12 个月逐步取消去年 11 月实施的 220 万桶/日的额外减产，每月减产约 18 万桶/日。但该计划附带一个条件，即取消减产取决于“市场状况”，这为这八个产油国留出了灵活性，同时也给其他市场参与者带来了不确定性。
欧洲对中质和重质油品的需求前景短期内一直较为黯淡。欧洲炼油企业将在 9 月至 11 月期间对部分产能进行检修。过去两周，中间馏分油裂解价差一直疲软且不断恶化，加剧了市场对原油加工量即使在检修结束后仍将保持低位的预期。
沙特阿美将其 9 月装船运往欧洲买家的官方配方价格下调了 2.65-2.75 美元/桶。作为中东海湾地区的巨头，沙特阿美通常是首个公布官方价格的企业，其他地区生产商在决定自身价格时往往倾向于跟随其调整。一些交易商认为，欧洲需求低迷可能会促使生产商在 10 月再次下调官方价格。
市场中重质原油供应的回归，加上中东海湾生产商稳定或降低的官方价格，可能会对现货供应的差价产生压力，市场参与者指出。一些关键品级已经面临压力。挪威的中酸质 Johan Sverdrup 原油，作为欧洲最大的同类品质原油，在 8 月底对北海基准日期价格的贴水达到了四个月低点，为每桶 1.10 美元。9 月装船的多个货源仍可获得，主要集中在下半月，此时炼油厂已基本确保了 9 月的供应，且 10 月的出口计划已经发布。
巴西中甜布济奥斯原油相对于北海布伦特原油的价格也跌至四个月低点，而伊拉克巴士拉中质原油自 8 月以来大部分时间都低于其欧洲公式定价，7 月份还处于溢价状态。
利比亚出口暂停
与此同时，交易商表示，鉴于利比亚可能暂停原油出口，短期内任何现货原油价格的调整都可能有限。
利比亚东部政府在 8 月底下令停止该国的所有原油生产和出口，这是该国长期政治紧张局势的最新表现。尽管 8 月底仍有部分货物从库存中装载，但此举将有效减少 100 万桶/日的供应，其中 85%流向欧洲炼油厂。
利比亚主要生产轻甜原油，并不直接与欧佩克+生产国竞争。该国出口的缺失预计将主要推高其主要竞争对手阿尔及利亚撒哈拉混合油的价格，同时也有助于支撑来自美国、北海、西非和俄罗斯-里海地区的轻甜原油供应价格。
但利比亚和中东海湾等级的原油均富含中馏分油，尽管中东海湾等级的原油通常硫含量高于利比亚原油。若持续存在每日 85 万桶的供应缺口，将促使炼油商调整其产品组合并寻求任何可用的替代品，从而推高各类原油价格，并实质上抵消未来几个月欧佩克+减产协议逐步解除的影响——前提是这一过程按计划进行。
挪威与伊拉克原油对比即期价格
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Libyan crude production slips below 600,000 b/d
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UK eyes new environmental guidance for oil, gas: Update
UK eyes new environmental guidance for oil, gas: Update
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Baghdad issues ultimatum to KRG to drive output down
Baghdad issues ultimatum to KRG to drive output down
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UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
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