Another Crypto Risk Lurks. Governments Could Be Tempted to Confiscate Your Coins.
另一种加密货币风险潜伏。政府可能想没收你的加密货币。

The notion that the global financial order could one day suffer or collapse under the weight of its debt has understandably given rise to a survivalist impulse to do whatever it takes to escape the financial system we have, and perhaps create a new system in the process.
可以理解的是，全球金融秩序有朝一日可能会在债务的重压下遭受打击或崩溃，这就催生了一种求生的冲动，即不惜一切代价摆脱我们现有的金融体系，或许还能在这一过程中创建一个新的体系。
That impulse, for good or bad, stands behind the rise of cryptocurrency, but I am highly doubtful that cryptocurrencies will save us. 
这种冲动，无论好坏，都是加密货币兴起的原因，但我非常怀疑加密货币能否拯救我们。

Cryptocurrencies are perceived by officials to be both a threat to the existing financial system and a facilitator of money laundering, which explains why, when Bitcoin fell 50 percent in short order, government officials went out of their way to say, “We told you so.” The U.S. secretary of the treasury pointedly warned Americans against “extremely risky” cryptocurrencies lacking “appropriate supervision and regulation.”
官员们认为加密货币既是对现有金融体系的威胁，也是洗钱的助推器，这就解释了为什么当比特币在短时间内下跌 50% 时，政府官员们会不遗余力地说："我们早就告诉过你了"。美国财政部部长尖锐地警告美国人不要使用缺乏 "适当监督和监管 "的 "风险极大 "的加密货币。

It’s not yet clear whether government will ultimately regulate crypto- currencies into submission and make them part of the world financial order, or whether cryptocurrencies will remain an alternative financial asset that rivals and threatens the status quo.
目前还不清楚政府最终是否会对加密货币进行监管，使其屈服并成为世界金融秩序的一部分，也不清楚加密货币是否仍将是一种可与现状相抗衡并对现状构成威胁的另类金融资产。
Bitcoin has recently staged a comeback since ETFs investing in crypto have been approved and launched. That suggests, after the last wave of crypto frauds were exposed, the new asset class is inching its way toward the regulated mainstream and middle-class respectability.
自从投资加密货币的 ETF 获得批准并推出以来，比特币最近卷土重来。这表明，在上一波加密货币欺诈事件被曝光后，这种新的资产类别正逐步走向受监管的主流和中产阶级的体面。
There is of course always a chance that politicians seeking votes will float the idea they might change the official cryptocurrency policy—in some political circles there is talk of the U.S. government stock-piling Bitcoin reserve—but speculating that a country will undermine its own currency monopoly with a sizable effort seems to me like a risky bet.
当然，寻求选票的政客们总是有可能提出他们可能会改变官方加密货币政策的想法--在一些政治圈子里，有关于美国政府储备比特币的说法--但在我看来，猜测一个国家会以巨大的努力来破坏自己的货币垄断似乎是一个冒险的赌注。
 

In fact, if cryptocurrencies remain on an alternative path, the sector may eventually face its day of reckoning. I come to this conclusion because of what history teaches us.
事实上，如果加密货币继续走另一条道路，该行业最终可能会面临清算之日。我之所以得出这样的结论，是因为历史告诉了我们什么。
While governments will tolerate market forces and market pricing to a point, they will not allow market pricing or rival assets to destroy the existing financial system. In the end, nothing is allowed to challenge sovereign rights and sovereign currency. 
虽然政府会在一定程度上容忍市场力量和市场定价，但不会允许市场定价或竞争对手的资产破坏现有的金融体系。最终，没有任何东西可以挑战主权权利和主权货币。

During the Great Depression, for example, gold became too attractive an asset compared to cash, stocks, and bonds. A terrified populace was converting dollars to gold and hoarding the yellow metal, further with- drawing liquidity from the markets.
例如，在经济大萧条期间，与现金、股票和债券相比，黄金成为一种太有吸引力的资产。惶恐不安的民众将美元兑换成黄金，囤积黄金，进一步消耗了市场的流动性。
The U.S. government responded by bringing down the hammer on what was then perceived to be a rival asset class threatening the entire financial system. 
美国政府的回应是，对当时被视为威胁整个金融体系的对立资产类别重拳出击。

In March 1933, Washington passed the Emergency Banking Act, which gave the U.S. secretary of the treasury the power to force institutions to surrender any gold coins and certificates they might be holding, an act that was then amended and expanded by subsequent executive orders signed by President Roosevelt.
1933 年 3 月，华盛顿通过了《紧急银行法》，赋予美国财政部长强制机构交出其可能持有的任何金币和证书的权力，罗斯福总统随后签署的行政命令对该法案进行了修订和扩充。
Because it was possible for the government to seize their gold stashes, many wealthy Americans spent decades afterward hiding their precious holdings in offshore bank vaults.
由于政府有可能没收他们藏匿的黄金，许多富有的美国人在之后的几十年里一直把他们的贵重物品藏在离岸银行的保险库里。
It was only in 1974 that President Gerald Ford finally repealed President Roosevelt’s executive orders and Congress again restored to U.S. citizens their right to own gold.
直到 1974 年，杰拉尔德-福特总统终于废除了罗斯福总统的行政命令，国会再次恢复了美国公民拥有黄金的权利。

The United States was not the only nation to go hard against its citizens in this way. In 1959, Australia passed a law that allowed it to seize gold from private citizens.
美国并不是唯一一个以这种方式对其公民采取强硬手段的国家。1959 年，澳大利亚通过了一项法律，允许没收公民私人的黄金。
In 1966, the UK government banned its citizens from owning more than four gold or silver coins, a law that stayed on the books until 1979. 
1966 年，英国政府禁止公民拥有四枚以上的金币或银币，这项法律一直沿用到 1979 年。

This is not some quaint lesson from the past. It’s an enduring principle. In times of trouble governments and the ruling politicians of the day will do extraordinary things to preserve the status quo and prevent the financial system from outright collapse.
这不是什么过时的教训。这是一条永恒的原则。在困难时期，当时的政府和执政的政客会采取非常手段来维持现状，防止金融体系彻底崩溃。
The lengths to which the U.S. government went to save the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009), after making several blunders, will be dissected at length [subsequently].
在全球金融危机（2007-2009 年）期间，美国政府在数次失误后为拯救金融体系所做的努力将被详细剖析[随后]。
But, to my mind, it was Mario Draghi, the former European Central Bank (ECB) president, who best summed up the pervasive world-view of government when it has its back against the wall. 
但在我看来，欧洲中央银行（ECB）前行长马里奥-德拉吉（Mario Draghi）最能概括政府在背靠墙壁时无处不在的世界观。

In the summer of 2012, as a sovereign debt crisis in Europe brought into question the euro’s very survival, Draghi stood up and announced at a global investment conference in London, “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.
2012 年夏天，欧洲主权债务危机使欧元的生存受到质疑，德拉吉在伦敦的一次全球投资会议上站起来宣布："欧洲央行已准备好不惜一切代价维护欧元。
And believe me, it will be enough.”
相信我，这就足够了。"

We live in the age of “whatever it takes.” 
我们生活在一个 "不惜一切代价 "的时代。

Whoever thinks that cryptocurrencies will be immune from government intervention and escape a fate similar to gold’s, if this new-age coin is perceived to rival and threaten the existing financial order, is deluding themselves.
如果新时代的加密货币被认为可以与现有金融秩序相抗衡并对其构成威胁，那么谁还会认为加密货币可以免受政府干预并逃脱与黄金类似的命运呢？
The crypto market globally stood at $1.7 trillion at the end of 2023, liquid enough to appear interesting for investors, but it remains one-fourteenth the size of the U.S. commercial real estate market, another exotic asset class that is more solid and generally not held enough in investors’ portfolios.
到 2023 年底，全球加密货币市场规模将达到 1.7 万亿美元，流动性足以引起投资者的兴趣，但其规模仍然只有美国商业地产市场的四分之一，而美国商业地产市场是另一种外来资产类别，更加稳固，在投资者的投资组合中一般持有量不足。
But the larger point I want to make here is that cryptocurrencies as an asset class remain so small that governments could quash them without a major disruption to global markets. 
但我想说的更重要的一点是，加密货币作为一种资产类别，其规模仍然很小，政府可以在不对全球市场造成重大破坏的情况下将其扼杀。

Hence my concern for those drawn to crypto: Rather than trying to understand the existing system and learning how to invest accordingly, an increasing number of investors are thinking they can escape the prevailing system through cryptocurrencies—and are at heightened risk of losing their life savings in the process.
因此，我对那些被加密货币吸引的人表示担忧：越来越多的投资者不是试图了解现有体系并学习如何进行相应的投资，而是认为他们可以通过加密货币来逃避现行体系--在这个过程中，他们失去毕生积蓄的风险也在增加。
 

Adapted from “The New Rules of Investing” by Mark Haefele, with Richard C. Morais, to be published by HarperCollins Leadership, an imprint of HarperCollins Focus, on January 28, 2025. Copyright © 2025 Mark Haefele, Richard C. Morais.
改编自马克-海菲尔（Mark Haefele）与理查德-莫赖斯（Richard C. Morais）合著的《投资新规则》，将于 2025 年 1 月 28 日由 HarperCollins Focus 旗下的 HarperCollins Leadership 出版社出版。马克-海菲尔、理查德-莫赖斯版权所有 © 2025 年。
Printed by arrangement with HarperCollins Focus, a division of HarperCollins Publishers (which, like Barron’s, is owned by News Corp). 
由 HarperCollins 出版社（与《巴伦周刊》一样，为新闻集团所有）旗下的 HarperCollins Focus 安排印刷。

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