The West’s values are important, but so is realism, says Finland’s president
芬兰总统：西方价值观固然重要，但现实主义也同样重要

THERE ARE moments in international relations when we understand that the world is changing, but we do not yet know exactly where it is going—those moments when an era dies and a new one is yet to be born. We are living through one of them. The post-cold-war era is over. It ended with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The things that were supposed to bring us together—trade, technology, energy, information and currency—are now tearing us apart.
在国际关系中，有些时候我们知道世界正在发生变化，但我们还不知道它究竟会走向何方--这就是一个时代消亡而一个新时代尚未诞生的时刻。我们正在经历这样的时刻。冷战后时代已经结束。它随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略战争而结束。贸易、技术、能源、信息和货币这些本应将我们团结在一起的东西，现在却在将我们撕裂。

Interdependence did not automatically lead to peace. Market economics did not translate into free trade. Freedom did not always mean liberal democracy. The West won the cold war but failed to convince the rest of the world to adopt the values it holds universal.
相互依存并不会自动带来和平。市场经济并不意味着自由贸易。自由并不总是意味着自由民主。西方赢得了冷战，却未能说服世界其他国家接受其所信奉的普世价值观。

In many ways this is our generation’s equivalent of 1918, 1945 or 1989. The next few years will probably define the world order, balance and dynamics for the rest of the century, or at least for decades to come.
在许多方面，这是我们这一代人的 1918 年、1945 年或 1989 年。未来几年可能将决定本世纪余下时间，或至少未来几十年的世界秩序、平衡和动态。

We can get it wrong, as happened after the first world war, when the League of Nations was unable to contain great-power competition and we ended up in another world war. Alternatively we can get it more or less right, as happened after the second world war with the establishment of the United Nations. It did, after all, help preserve peace among the two cold-war superpowers, America and the Soviet Union—though at the same time many countries in Eastern Europe paid a terrible price through Soviet repression and occupation. In addition, proxy and civil wars fought under the pretext of cold-war ideology saw millions of deaths in Africa, Asia and elsewhere.
我们可能会弄错，就像第一次世界大战后发生的那样，国际联盟无法遏制大国竞争，结果我们又陷入了另一场世界大战。或者，我们也可以像第二次世界大战后成立联合国那样，或多或少地做对一些。毕竟，联合国帮助维护了冷战时期美苏两个超级大国之间的和平--尽管与此同时，东欧许多国家也因苏联的镇压和占领付出了惨痛的代价。此外，以冷战意识形态为借口的代理人战争和内战导致非洲、亚洲和其他地区数百万人死亡。

Many, myself included, believed that the end of the cold war would spell the end of history—that most of the world’s roughly 200 nation states would gravitate towards open, democratic and free societies. That did not happen.
包括我在内的许多人都认为，冷战的结束将意味着历史的终结--世界上大约 200 个民族国家中的大多数都将走向开放、民主和自由的社会。但事实并非如此。

Accepting reality is a good starting-point for policymaking. The era of Western domination, as we used to know it, is over. The question is how global power will be shared in the future. We are witnessing a realignment of the balance between three spheres of power: the Global West, the Global East and the Global South.
接受现实是制定政策的良好起点。我们过去所熟知的西方统治时代已经结束。现在的问题是，未来将如何分享全球权力。我们正在目睹全球西方、全球东方和全球南方三大势力范围之间平衡的重新调整。

The Global West encompasses roughly 50 states, mostly in North America and Europe, plus Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. These countries are more or less democratic and actually more united than at any time since the cold war. They want to preserve the current world order because they built the institutions and rules that support it. But in many ways those institutions fail to reflect the geopolitical realities of today.
全球西方包括大约 50 个国家，大部分在北美和欧洲，另外还有日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰。这些国家或多或少都是民主国家，实际上比冷战以来任何时候都更加团结。他们希望维护当前的世界秩序，因为支撑这一秩序的机构和规则是由他们建立的。但在许多方面，这些体制未能反映当今的地缘政治现实。

The Global East is composed of 25 countries, led by China. The followers include Russia, Iran and a cluster of countries that tend to vote with them in the UN. This group has a strong authoritarian streak and would like to see the West’s wings clipped. Its members pine for a world order that is more closely aligned with their own systems of governance.
全球东方由以中国为首的 25 个国家组成。追随者包括俄罗斯、伊朗和在联合国投票中倾向于支持他们的一组国家。该集团具有强烈的独裁倾向，希望看到西方的羽翼被剪断。其成员希望世界秩序更符合他们自己的治理体系。

The Global South, a group of roughly 125 countries, is naturally a simplification because of its diversity. It includes democracies and more authoritarian states from three different continents. Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, South Africa and Brazil have established themselves as swing states in a shifting balance of power.
全球南部是一个由大约 125 个国家组成的集团，由于其多样性，自然是一种简化。它包括来自三大洲的民主国家和专制国家。印度、沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亚、南非和巴西等国已成为不断变化的力量平衡中的摇摆国家。

Though this categorisation into a triangle of power is an oversimplification, it helps to illustrate how the world is changing. Demography, technology and natural resources are driving that change.
虽然这种权力三角划分过于简单，但它有助于说明世界正在发生怎样的变化。人口、技术和自然资源正在推动这一变化。

The West and the East are fighting for the hearts and minds of the South. The reason is simple: they understand that it is the South that will decide the direction of the new world order.
西方和东方正在争夺南方的人心。原因很简单：他们明白，决定世界新秩序走向的将是南方。

It would be a mistake for the West to think that the South will gravitate towards it only because of values or the power of freedom and democracy. The East would be equally mistaken to think that big infrastructure projects and direct finance buys it full influence in the South.
如果西方国家认为南方会仅仅因为价值观或自由和民主的力量而向其靠拢，那就大错特错了。如果东方认为大型基础设施项目和直接融资能使其在南方拥有充分的影响力，那也同样是错误的。

Ultimately, it is about both values and interests. The South will pick and choose—because it can. The West needs to start thinking about a global system where the rules and norms are not just adopted but also created by the South. It is, for instance, a historic anomaly that no permanent seats on the UN Security Council go to Africa, Latin America or Asia beyond China. If the West wants to convince the South to support international institutions and rules, it must give those countries a voice where it matters.
归根结底，这既关乎价值观，也关乎利益。南方将做出选择--因为它可以。西方需要开始考虑建立一个全球体系，在这个体系中，规则和规范不仅由南方采纳，而且由南方创造。例如，联合国安理会的常任理事国席位除中国外，均不属于非洲、拉丁美洲或亚洲，这是一个历史性的反常现象。如果西方想要说服南方国家支持国际机构和规则，就必须让这些国家在重要的场合有发言权。

The case for values-based realism
基于价值观的现实主义

The West has a choice. It can continue believing in an illusion that it can remain dominant, just as it has for centuries. Or it can accept the realities of change, and start behaving accordingly, especially towards the South.
西方有一个选择。它可以像几个世纪以来一样，继续相信自己可以保持主导地位的幻觉。或者，它可以接受变化的现实，并开始采取相应的行动，尤其是对南方国家。

To gain the South’s trust, the West needs to adopt what I call values-based realism. On the one hand it should lean on values it has espoused for decades, such as democracy, human rights and international institutions. On the other hand it needs to understand that global challenges such as climate change, immigration and economic development can’t be solved with like-minded states only.
为了赢得南方的信任，西方需要采取我所说的基于价值观的现实主义。一方面，西方应倚重其数十年来信奉的价值观，如民主、人权和国际机构。另一方面，它需要明白，气候变化、移民和经济发展等全球性挑战不能仅靠志同道合的国家来解决。

It is not about compromising your values, but realising that in order to make progress you have to compromise some of your interests. At the same time it is about respecting the values and interests of others in the interest of global co-operation.
这并不是说要牺牲自己的价值观，而是要认识到，为了取得进步，你必须牺牲自己的某些利益。同时，这也是为了全球合作而尊重他人的价值观和利益。

Foreign policy is about value judgments mixed in with interests. Do you sell arms to a country that is authoritarian but is fighting terrorism? Do you buy arms that are crucial for your security from a country that is waging an illegal war? Do you give development aid to a country that imprisons homosexuals?
外交政策是价值判断与利益的混合体。你会向一个独裁但正在打击恐怖主义的国家出售武器吗？你会从一个发动非法战争的国家购买对你的安全至关重要的武器吗？你会向一个监禁同性恋者的国家提供发展援助吗？

The West is often accused of double standards. India’s foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, has given us ample food for thought by noting that “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” Indeed, perhaps the West would stand to gain from dealing with the rest of the world on an equal footing.
西方经常被指责采用双重标准。印度外长 S. Jaishankar 指出："欧洲必须摆脱欧洲的问题是世界的问题，但世界的问题不是欧洲的问题的思维模式。"的确，如果能与世界其他国家平等相处，西方或许会受益匪浅。

The countries of the South do not want to make a choice between democracy and autocracy, between the West and the East. They are driven by their own interests, and they want a relationship of equality and mutual respect.
南方国家不想在民主与专制、西方与东方之间做出选择。它们受自身利益驱使，希望建立平等和相互尊重的关系。

One of the reasons that the East is a more convincing partner for the South is linked to the systematic infrastructure, finance and development programmes set up by China around the world. The strategy has been successful, though not flawless.
东方之所以成为南方更有说服力的合作伙伴，其中一个原因与中国在世界各地建立的系统性基础设施、金融和发展计划有关。这一战略虽然并非完美无瑕，但却取得了成功。

Values-based realism is a good starting-point if the West wants to appeal more to the South. But this needs to be combined with agency for the South—in other words, real power in the international institutions that are supposed to provide the basis for multilateral economic and political co-operation.
如果西方想要吸引更多的南方国家，以价值观为基础的现实主义是一个很好的出发点。但这需要与南方的代理权相结合，换句话说，需要在国际机构中拥有真正的权力，而这些机构本应为多边经济和政治合作提供基础。

Uncertainty is a part of international relations. The key is to understand why change is happening and how to react to it. If the West reverts back to its old ways of direct or indirect dominance, or outright arrogance, it will lose the battle. If it understands that the South will be a big part of the next world order, it just might be able to forge both values- and interest-based alliances that can tackle the big global challenges. Values-based realism will give it enough foreign-policy space to navigate this new era.■
不确定性是国际关系的一部分。关键是要了解变化发生的原因以及如何应对。如果西方重新回到其直接或间接主导的老路，或彻底的傲慢，它将输掉这场战斗。如果西方认识到南方将成为下一个世界秩序的重要组成部分，那么它就有可能建立起以价值观和利益为基础的联盟，从而应对全球性的重大挑战。以价值观为基础的现实主义将为它提供足够的外交政策空间来驾驭这个新时代。

Alexander Stubb is the president of the Republic of Finland.
亚历山大-斯图布是芬兰共和国总统。