‘probably yes’, ‘probably not’, and ‘definitely not’. A period of two years was chosen to receive information about concrete fertility intentions. If respondents replied ‘probably not’ or ‘definitely not’ to have a first or another child within the next two years, then a question was asked whether they intend ever to have a first or another child. The answers could be differentiated in the same way as in the previous question. The investigation of tempo-related intentions to have a first or another child is only meaningful for individuals that actually want to have this child. Therefore, only respondents that want to have ever a first or another child are considered for this variable. For the variable about the quantum related fertility intentions, all respondents that probably or definitely want to have a child within the next two years are coded as respondents that also definitely ever want to have the respective child (for more details on the tempo and quantum of fertility intentions, see Philipov et al. 2005). “可能”、“可能不会”和“肯定不会”。我们选择两年时间来收集有关具体生育意愿的信息。如果受访者回答说“可能不会”或“肯定不会”在未来两年内生育第一个孩子或另一个孩子,那么我们会询问他们是否打算生育第一个孩子或另一个孩子。答案的区分方式与上一个问题相同。对生育第一个孩子或另一个孩子的时机相关意愿的调查仅对真正想要生育这个孩子的个人有意义。因此,只有想要生育第一个孩子或另一个孩子的受访者才会被考虑为这个变量。对于与生育数量相关的生育意愿变量,所有可能或肯定希望在两年内生育孩子的受访者都被编码为肯定希望生育相应孩子的受访者(有关生育意愿的时机和数量的更多详细信息,请参阅Philipov等人,2005)。
4.3 Social Capital 4.3 社会资本
Respondents’ social capital was measured by the amount of experienced and potential transfers of resources. Respondents were asked about the size of three different networks that provide them with three different kinds of resources during the last two years: ‘small help’, ‘substantial and important support’, and ‘borrowed money’. If the respondents reported that no network partners of a particular network provided them with the particular resource, they were asked to name the number of network partners from whom they would receive this resource if needed. For example, if a respondent replied that nobody provided ‘substantial and important support’, then the respondent was asked to name the number of network partners he or she could ask for this kind of support. For each of the three kinds of resources, the numbers of experienced and potential supportive network partners are summarised to three variables that provide information about the respondents’ amount of social capital according to ‘small help’, ‘substantial and important support’, and ‘borrowed money’. ^(4){ }^{4} To cover the respondents’ involvement in long-term exchange relationships and investments in social capital, they were also asked about the number of network partners to whom they provided ‘important and substantive support’. If no network partner was named, the respondents were asked about the number of network partners that would ask them to provide this resource. These two variables are, again, summarised to a new one giving information about the number of network partners that receive ‘important and substantive support’ from the respondents. 受访者的社会资本通过资源转移的量和潜力来衡量。受访者被问及在过去两年中,为他们提供三种不同资源的三种不同网络的大小:“小帮助”、“实质性和重要的支持”和“借款”。如果受访者报告说,特定网络中的任何网络合作伙伴都没有为他们提供特定的资源,则要求他们说出如果有需要,可以从哪些网络合作伙伴那里获得这种资源。例如,如果受访者回答说没有人提供“实质性和重要的支持”,则要求受访者说出可以要求这种支持的网络合作伙伴的数量。对于这三种资源中的每一种,根据“小帮助”、“实质性和重要的支持”和“借款”,将经历的和潜在的支持网络合作伙伴的数量总结为三个变量,以提供有关受访者社会资本数量的信息。为了涵盖受访者参与长期交换关系和社会资本投资的情况,还询问了他们向哪些网络合作伙伴提供了“重要和实质性的支持”。如果没有提到任何网络合作伙伴,则询问受访者有多少网络合作伙伴会要求他们提供这种资源。这两个变量再次总结为一个新变量,以提供有关从受访者那里获得“重要和实质性的支持”的网络合作伙伴数量的信息。
The subsequent analyses consider a very simple property of social networks, namely, size. However, this structural characteristic is a central dimension of social capital (Bourdieu 1983; Flap 2002). The analyses address the processes of interpersonal exchange as the basic mechanism of generating social capital. Structural properties of social networks, such as density, cohesiveness, openness, or structural similarity, are very much outcomes of these processes and are not considered subsequently. 随后的分析考虑了社交网络的一个非常简单属性,即规模。然而,这一结构特征是社会资本的核心维度(Bourdieu 1983;Flap 2002)。分析将人际交流过程作为社会资本产生的基本机制。社交网络的结构属性,如密度、凝聚力、开放性或结构相似性,很大程度上是这些过程的结果,因此不在后续考虑之列。
For a subgroup of network partners, the questionnaire collected personal characteristics and some attributes of the respondent’s relationships with them. For example, when a respondent reported about network partners from whom he received ‘small help’, he was asked to select up to five network partners that were most important within this context. Next, he was asked for the network partners’ gender, travelling distance between the respondent and them, their frequency of contact, and their role relationships, i.e. whether they belong to the respondent’s family or whether they are relatives, friends, acquaintances, colleagues etc. The latter variable can be used as an indicator for the kind of reciprocity that characterises the relationships. Members of the extended family and kin build systems of indirect reciprocal exchange. Relationships with the partner, friends, or colleagues rest on direct reciprocity. The same information was collected for up to five network partners that ‘lend money to the respondent’ and/or that received ‘important and substantive support’ from her. For the analyses, the network partners from these two networks as well as from the network that provided the respondent with ‘small help’ are pooled and their characteristics are aggregated. This is done to receive some independence between the composition of role relationships and the kind of resources received or given. Two new variables are created to indicate the number of indirect reciprocal relationships between the respondents and their network partners, measured by the number of extended family members and relatives, and to measure the number of direct reciprocal relationships, represented by the number of friends, colleagues, neighbours, and acquaintances. Husbands and partners are not considered, as the analyses concentrate on the exchange of resources with network partners outside the respondents’ core family. To cover a probably significant role the respondents’ direct parents may play in the relationships of indirect reciprocity, three additional variables are constructed. Two dummy variables that report whether the respondent named one or both direct parents and one variable about the number of indirect reciprocal relationships to all other relatives. 对于网络合作伙伴的子群体,问卷调查收集了受访者的个人特征以及他们与网络合作伙伴关系的某些属性。例如,当受访者报告说从网络合作伙伴那里获得了“小帮助”时,他会被要求选择最多五个在这种情况下最重要的网络合作伙伴。接下来,他会被要求提供网络合作伙伴的性别、受访者与他们的旅行距离、联系频率以及角色关系,即他们是否属于受访者的家人,或者他们是亲戚、朋友、熟人、同事等。后一个变量可以用作关系中互惠类型的指标。大家庭和亲属成员建立间接互惠交换系统。与合作伙伴、朋友或同事的关系建立在直接互惠的基础上。对于“借钱给受访者”和/或从受访者那里获得“重要和实质性支持”的最多五个网络合作伙伴,也收集了相同的信息。为了进行分析,来自这两个网络以及向受访者提供“小帮助”的网络中的网络合作伙伴被集中起来,其特征被汇总。这样做是为了在角色关系的构成与所获得或提供的资源类型之间获得一定的独立性。创建了两个新变量来指示受访者与他们的网络合作伙伴之间的间接互惠关系数量,以大家庭成员和亲戚的数量来衡量,并衡量直接互惠关系数量,以朋友、同事、邻居和熟人的数量来表示。 丈夫和伴侣不在考虑之列,因为分析的重点是受访者核心家庭以外的网络伙伴之间的资源交换。为了涵盖受访者直系父母在间接互惠关系中可能发挥的重要作用,我们构建了三个额外的变量。两个虚拟变量用于报告受访者是否指定了直系父母中的一方或双方,另一个变量用于报告与所有其他亲属的间接互惠关系数量。
4.4 Control Variables 4.4 控制变量
Primarily for the purpose of control, the multivariate analyses consider the basic characteristics of the respondents, their husbands or partners, and their households. Husbands’, partners’, and households’ characteristics are considered because we assume that women form their fertility intentions not solely based on 出于控制的目的,多元分析考虑了受访者、其丈夫或伴侣以及家庭的基本特征。之所以考虑丈夫、伴侣和家庭的特征,是因为我们认为女性形成生育意愿时,不仅考虑
their personal characteristics. The respondents are portrayed by age, the completed or aspired level of education, the employment situation, their religiosity, and the number of siblings they have. Husbands or partners are attributed with their age, the level of education completed or aspired, and their employment situation. As the analyses take the respondents’ perspectives into account, they consider only the characteristics of husbands’ or partners’ that we assume most of the respondents to know accurately. However, information on these characteristics is taken from the husbands’ or partners’ interviews. The situation of the household is represented by its equivalence income, i.e. by the household members’ per capita income weighted by the age structure of the household. ^(5){ }^{5} Finally, one variable controls for the differences of fertility intentions between urban and rural areas. 他们的个人特征。受访者按年龄、已完成或期望的教育水平、就业状况、宗教信仰以及兄弟姐妹数量进行描述。丈夫或伴侣按年龄、已完成或期望的教育水平以及就业状况进行描述。由于分析考虑了受访者的观点,因此只考虑了我们认为大多数受访者都准确了解的丈夫或伴侣的特征。然而,这些特征的信息来自对丈夫或伴侣的访谈。家庭状况由等值收入表示,即按家庭年龄结构加权计算的家庭成员人均收入。 ^(5){ }^{5} 最后,一个变量控制了城乡地区生育意愿的差异。
5 Empirical Results 5个经验结果
The empirical results are presented in two steps. First, the distributions of the central variables in the analyses are reported: the respondents’ fertility intentions and the size and composition of their exchange networks. Next, estimates from ordered logistic regressions are discussed to explore the possible effects of the respondents’ social capital and their embeddedness in relationships of direct and indirect reciprocity on their fertility intentions. 实证结果分两步呈现。首先,报告分析中的中心变量的分布:受访者的生育意愿以及他们的交流网络的规模和组成。其次,讨论有序逻辑回归的估计值,以探讨受访者的社会资本以及他们在直接和间接互惠关系中的嵌入程度对他们的生育意愿可能产生的影响。
5.1 Fertility Intentions 5.1 生育意愿
Of all women considered in the analyses, 35.9%35.9 \% definitely intend to have a first or another child (see Table 2). This compares to 36.1%36.1 \% who perceive their reproductive period to be completed and for certain do not intend to give birth to a child. However, as expected, these intentions depend significantly on the actual number of children belonging to the respondent. Most of the childless respondents ( 87.7%87.7 \% ) intend to have at least one child for sure. However, this intention changes significantly in the case of a second child. Here, only 43.3%43.3 \% are certain that they want to have a second child whereas 37.4%37.4 \% intend not to have more than one child. Finally, among the respondents with two, three, or more children, only a marked minority that intends to have a further child can be identified. 在分析的所有女性中, 35.9%35.9 \% 肯定打算生第一个或第二个孩子(见表 2)。相比之下, 36.1%36.1 \% 认为她们的生育期已经结束,肯定不打算生孩子。然而,正如预期的那样,这些打算很大程度上取决于受访者的实际子女数量。大多数没有孩子的受访者( 87.7%87.7 \% )肯定打算至少生一个孩子。然而,对于第二个孩子,这种打算发生了很大变化。在这里,只有 43.3%43.3 \% 肯定想要生第二个孩子,而 37.4%37.4 \% 打算只生一个孩子。最后,在有两个、三个或更多孩子的受访者中,只有极少数人打算再要一个孩子。
Table 2: 表2:
Intention ever to have a first or another child by the number of children belonging to the respondent (natural children, step, and fostered children) 根据受访者所生子女的数量(亲生子女、继子和领养子女),推测其是否打算生育第一个或更多孩子
Number of children 孩子数量
Total 总计
是否打算要第一个孩子或再要一个孩子
Intention ever to have
a first or another child
Intention ever to have
a first or another child| Intention ever to have |
| :--- |
| a first or another child |
0
1
2
3个或更多
3 or
more
3 or
more| 3 or |
| :---: |
| more |
Definitely not 绝对不是
3.0
20.1
75.2
85.0
36.1
Probably not 可能不会
2.6
17.3
17.9
7.5
15.5
Probably yes 可能是的
6.8
19.4
3.2
2.5
12.6
Definitely yes 当然可以
87.7
43.3
3.7
5.0
35.9
Total 总计
100.1
101.1
100.0
100.0
100.1
N
235
1,072
588
40
1,935^(a)1,935^{\mathrm{a}}
Number of children Total
"Intention ever to have
a first or another child" 0 1 2 "3 or
more"
Definitely not 3.0 20.1 75.2 85.0 36.1
Probably not 2.6 17.3 17.9 7.5 15.5
Probably yes 6.8 19.4 3.2 2.5 12.6
Definitely yes 87.7 43.3 3.7 5.0 35.9
Total 100.1 101.1 100.0 100.0 100.1
N 235 1,072 588 40 1,935^(a)| | Number of children | | | | Total |
| :--- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Intention ever to have <br> a first or another child | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 or <br> more | |
| Definitely not | 3.0 | 20.1 | 75.2 | 85.0 | 36.1 |
| Probably not | 2.6 | 17.3 | 17.9 | 7.5 | 15.5 |
| Probably yes | 6.8 | 19.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 12.6 |
| Definitely yes | 87.7 | 43.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 35.9 |
| Total | 100.1 | 101.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.1 |
| N | 235 | 1,072 | 588 | 40 | $1,935^{\mathrm{a}}$ |
Note: * Due to 81 cases with nonresponse or missing information, the total number of respondents in this table is smaller than the overall population ( n-2,016\mathrm{n}-2,016 ) considered in the analyses. 备注:* 由于有 81 个案例未回答或信息缺失,因此本表中的受访者总数小于分析中考虑的总人数( n-2,016\mathrm{n}-2,016 )。
The majority of the respondents who definitely or probably want to have a first or another child intends to have this child within the next two years (see Table 3). This holds especially for the timing of the first child. However, the intention to postpone the birth increases with parity. 绝大多数明确表示或可能想要生育第一个或第二个孩子的受访者都打算在未来两年内生育(见表3)。对于生育第一个孩子的时间安排尤其如此。然而,随着生育次数的增加,推迟生育的意愿也会增加。
The results in Tables 2 and 3 entail two limitations for the subsequent analyses. First, the distribution of the intentions of the childless women ever to have a first child is too skewed for a meaningful analysis ( 94.5%94.5 \% definitely or probably 表2和表3中的结果对后续分析存在两个限制。首先,无子女女性生育第一个孩子的意愿分布过于偏斜,无法进行有意义的分析( 94.5%94.5 \% 肯定或可能
Table 3: 表3:
Intention to have a first or another child within the next two years by the number of children belonging to the respondent (natural children, step, and fostered children). All respondents that definitely or probably intend to have a first or another child 根据受访者所生子女的数量(亲生子女、继子和领养子女),在未来两年内生育第一个或第二个孩子的意愿。所有明确或可能打算生育第一个或第二个孩子的受访者
打算在未来两年内生育第一个或第二个孩子
Intention to have a first or another child
within the next two years
Intention to have a first or another child
within the next two years| Intention to have a first or another child |
| :--- |
| within the next two years |
0
1
2
也不多
Nor
more
Nor
more| Nor |
| :---: |
| more |
12.9
16.1
30.0
-
16.0
Probably not 可能不会
14.7
27.8
30.0
33.3
24.8
Probably yes 可能是的
33.8
40.1
28.0
33.3
37.9
Definitely yes 当然可以
38.7
16.1
12.0
33.3
21.2
Total 总计
100.1
100.1
100.0
99.9
99.9
N
225
684
50
3
962
"Intention to have a first or another child
within the next two years" 0 1 2 "Nor
more"
12.9 16.1 30.0 - 16.0
Probably not 14.7 27.8 30.0 33.3 24.8
Probably yes 33.8 40.1 28.0 33.3 37.9
Definitely yes 38.7 16.1 12.0 33.3 21.2
Total 100.1 100.1 100.0 99.9 99.9
N 225 684 50 3 962| Intention to have a first or another child <br> within the next two years | 0 | 1 | 2 | Nor <br> more | |
| :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: |
| | | | | | |
| | 12.9 | 16.1 | 30.0 | - | 16.0 |
| Probably not | 14.7 | 27.8 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 24.8 |
| Probably yes | 33.8 | 40.1 | 28.0 | 33.3 | 37.9 |
| Definitely yes | 38.7 | 16.1 | 12.0 | 33.3 | 21.2 |
| Total | 100.1 | 100.1 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 99.9 |
| N | 225 | 684 | 50 | 3 | 962 |
intend to have a first child). Second, the number of respondents with three or more children (n=40)(\mathrm{n}=40) as well as the number of respondents who probably or definitely intend to have a third (n=50)(\mathrm{n}=50) or a fourth or fifth one (n=3)(\mathrm{n}=3) within the next two years are too small. Therefore, the multivariate analyses will only consider the respondents’ intentions ever to have a second or a third child and their intentions to have a first or a second one within the next two years. 打算生第一个孩子)。其次,有三个或以上孩子的受访者数量 (n=40)(\mathrm{n}=40) 以及可能或肯定打算在未来两年内生第三个 (n=50)(\mathrm{n}=50) 或第四个或第五个孩子 (n=3)(\mathrm{n}=3) 的受访者数量太少。因此,多元分析将只考虑受访者是否打算生第二个或第三个孩子以及是否打算在未来两年内生第一个或第二个孩子。
5.2 The Size and Composition of Networks 5.2 网络的规模和构成
The majority of the women reported to have access to the supportive resources that were addressed in the questionnaire. Of the respondents, only 6.0%6.0 \% resp. 7.7%7.7 \% replied not to know at least one network partner that provides ‘small help’ or ‘important and substantive support’ (see Table 4). 12.3%12.3 \% do not know of network partners that lend money. 51.1%51.1 \% of the respondents borrowed money from their network partners in the last two years. This money was repeatedly spent on goods for basic needs, such as food, clothing, or medicine ( 62.1%62.1 \% ), but also on bills for heating and lighting ( 31.9%31.9 \% ), or on unexpected payments of a smaller amount ( 25.6%25.6 \% ), like repairs or small medical treatments (multiple answers were possible). The mean values of the size of the non-empty networks show that the respondents are able to reach on average 3.7 network partners when they need ‘small help’, followed by 2.7 persons that give ‘substantive and important support’, and 2.4 people that lend money to them. The results on the small networks agree with insights from other studies (see for example Bühler and Frątczak 2004, Pfenning 1995, or Bernard et al. 1990). Within the personal network, there is mostly only a small number of members able and willing to give substantive support. Of the respondents, 87.5%87.5 \% gave or would give ‘important and substantive support’ to 3.0 network partners on average. A cross tabulation of the respondents who received and/or gave this kind of resource documents that 50.2%50.2 \% of them were engaged in exchange processes, i.e. they received as well as provided ‘important and substantive support’ within the last two years. 大多数女性表示她们能够获得问卷中提到的支持资源。在受访者中,只有 6.0%6.0 \% 人表示不认识至少一个可以提供“小帮助”或“重要实质性支持”的网络伙伴(见表4)。 12.3%12.3 \% 人不知道有提供贷款的网络伙伴。 51.1%51.1 \% 的受访者在过去两年中向网络伙伴借钱。这些钱经常用于购买基本生活必需品,如食物、衣服或药品( 62.1%62.1 \% ),也用于支付取暖和照明费用( 31.9%31.9 \% ),或用于支付修理或小病治疗等小额意外费用( 25.6%25.6 \% )(可多选)。非空网络规模的平均值表明,当受访者需要“小帮助”时,他们平均能够联系到3.7个网络伙伴,其次是2.7个提供“重要实质性支持”的人,以及2.4个借钱给他们的人。小网络的结果与其他研究结果一致(例如,参见Bühler和Frątczak 2004、Pfenning 1995或Bernard等人1990)。在个人网络中,通常只有少数成员能够并愿意提供实质性支持。在受访者中, 87.5%87.5 \% 人平均向3.0个网络伙伴提供或愿意提供“重要实质性支持”。交叉分析显示,在获得和/或提供这种资源的人中, 50.2%50.2 \% 人参与了交换过程,即他们在过去两年中既获得了“重要实质性支持”,也提供了这种支持。
Table 5 reports the networks’ compositions by the relationships of indirect and direct reciprocity. ^(6){ }^{6} Indirect reciprocal relationships form the majority. They make on average 55%55 \% of the relationships between the respondents and their network partners. On the one hand, this is caused by the significance of the respondents’ direct parents ( 30%30 \% ), but also by parents-in-law, members of the extended family, and relatives ( 25%25 \% ). Direct parents are crucial providers of ‘substantive and important support’ and they are a valuable source of money, but they make also one fourth of the network partners that were supported by the respondents. Direct reciprocal relationships with friends, colleagues, neighbours, or acquaintances form a significant share of the respondents’ exchange activities within the last two years as well. This group of network partners is the most important source for borrowed money ( 37%37 \% ) and they are also frequent beneficiaries of ‘important and substantive support’ given by the respondents. Furthermore, there are supportive relationships within the respondents’ core families. Husbands or partners make on average 27%27 \% of the network partners that provided important 表5按间接和直接互惠关系列出了网络构成。 ^(6){ }^{6} 间接互惠关系占多数。它们平均占受访者与其网络伙伴之间关系的 55%55 \% 。一方面,这是由于受访者的直系亲属( 30%30 \% )的重要性,另一方面,也是由于姻亲、大家庭成员和亲戚( 25%25 \% )的重要性。直系亲属是“实质性和重要支持”的重要提供者,也是宝贵的资金来源,但他们也占受访者所支持的网络伙伴的四分之一。与朋友、同事、邻居或熟人的直接互惠关系也占受访者过去两年内交换活动的很大一部分。这一组网络伙伴是借款的最重要来源( 37%37 \% ),也是受访者给予的“重要和实质性支持”的常见受益者。此外,在受访者的核心家庭中也有支持关系。丈夫或伴侣平均占提供重要
support to the respondents and they form 22%22 \% of the network partners that received this kind of support. 支持受访者,他们构成了接受过此类支持的 22%22 \% 网络合作伙伴。
Table 4: 表4:
Shares of empty networks and mean sizes of non-empty networks separated by the number of children belonging to the respondent (natural children, step, and fostered children) 空网络的份额和非空网络的平均规模,以受访者子女的数量(亲生子女、继子和养子)为分隔
\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|}
\hline \multirow[t]{3}{*}{} & \multicolumn{5}{|c|}{Access to small help} & \multicolumn{5}{|c|}{Access to important and substantive support} \hline \multirow[t]{3}{*}{} & \multicolumn{5}{|c|}{访问小帮助} & \multicolumn{5}{|c|}{访问重要且实质性的支持}
\hline & Total & \multicolumn{4}{|c|}{Number of children} & Total & \multicolumn{4}{|c|}{Number of children} 横线 & 总计 & 多栏{4}{|c|}{孩子数量} & 总计 & 多栏{4}{|c|}{孩子数量}
Note: The table reports the mean values and standard deviations (in parentheses) of the proportions of the particular relationships and groups. 备注:表格中报告了特定关系和群体比例的平均值和标准偏差(括号内)。
5.3 Multivariate Analyses 5.3 多变量分析
The multivariate analyses first address the question whether social capital in general or whether having access to particular resources influence fertility intentions. Therefore, the sizes of the different networks are introduced in an ordinal logistic regression simultaneously controlling for the basic characteristics of the respondents, their husbands/partners, and their households. 多元分析首先探讨了社会资本总体或特定资源获取是否影响生育意愿的问题。因此,在序贯逻辑回归中引入了不同网络的大小,同时控制了受访者、其丈夫/伴侣及其家庭的基本特征。
The results in Table 6 document the general importance of ‘substantive and important support’ on the respondents’ fertility intentions. The more the respondents have access to network partners who provide this resource, the more they are intending to have ever a second or a third child as well as to have a first or a second child within the next two years. The coefficients report a linear relationship according to the timing of birth. The respondents’ intentions to have a first or a second child within the next two years benefit from each additional supportive network partner. However, this does not apply to the quantum related intentions. 表6中的结果证明了“实质性的重要支持”对受访者生育意愿的重要性。受访者越容易接触到提供这种资源的人际网络,他们就越倾向于在未来两年内生育第二个或第三个孩子,以及第一个或第二个孩子。系数表明,生育时间与生育意愿之间存在线性关系。受访者在未来两年内生育第一个或第二个孩子的意愿会因人际网络中支持者的增加而增强。然而,这并不适用于与数量相关的意愿。
As the significant negative signs of the squared network size document, the respondents face a declining marginal utility of supportive network partners. Each additional network partner provides substantive and important support that is to 正如网络规模呈平方关系的重要负面迹象所显示的那样,受访者面临的支持网络合作伙伴的边际效用正在下降。每个额外的网络合作伙伴都会提供实质性的重要支持,
some extent already provided by other network partners. Therefore, having access to a maximum of supportive network partners is not the optimal solution, but to know a reasonable number of them. As the data contain no detailed information about the kind of available support, no sound reason for these results can be given. However, a first interpretation is that the respondents’ quantum and timing related fertility intentions benefit from different kinds of important support that can be provided best by different numbers of network partners. 某种程度上,其他网络合作伙伴已经提供了这些支持。因此,拥有尽可能多的支持网络合作伙伴并不是最佳解决方案,而是了解其中合理数量的网络合作伙伴。由于数据中并未包含有关可用支持类型的详细信息,因此无法给出这些结果的合理理由。然而,初步的解释是,受访者的数量和时间相关的生育意愿得益于不同数量的网络合作伙伴提供的不同类型的重要支持。
The access to network partners who provide ‘small help’ in daily activities is of heterogeneous importance. There is no impact on the intention ever to have a second child whereas it supports the consideration to have a third one. It influences the respondents’ intentions to have a second child within the next two years in a negative way. Thus, ‘small help’ from other people is not located around activities that are relevant for fertility intentions according to the first or second child. However, with the second child, the respondents’ workload increases and consequently their intention to have a third one depends, among other things, on the availability of network partners that help them with their daily activities. 网络伙伴在日常活动中提供的“小帮助”对人们的重要性各不相同。它对生二胎的意愿没有影响,但有助于考虑生三胎。它对受访者在未来两年内生二胎的意愿产生了负面影响。因此,根据生第一胎或第二胎的情况,其他人的“小帮助”并不与生育意愿相关的活动有关。然而,对于生二胎,受访者的工作量会增加,因此他们生三胎的意愿取决于网络伙伴能否帮助他们处理日常活动。
Having access to network partners that lend money does not have any effect on the respondents’ fertility intentions. As the descriptive analyses show, money is primarily borrowed from other people to close short-term financial gaps. This result sheds light on the character of the resources that increase the respondents’ fertility intentions. Resources that help to cope with daily or short-term problems tend to be of minor relevance. Fertility decisions are decisions with long-term consequences; therefore, resources matter that substantively shape the respondents’ living conditions and opportunities for activities. 能否从网络上的借贷伙伴那里借钱对受访者的生育意愿没有影响。正如描述性分析所示,借钱主要是为了填补短期资金缺口。这一结果揭示了增加受访者生育意愿的资源特征。有助于应对日常或短期问题的资源往往不太重要。生育决定会产生长期影响,因此,能够实质性地改善受访者生活条件和活动机会的资源才是最重要的。
The number of network partners that received or would receive ‘substantive and important support’ from the respondent does not show any influence either. This does not apply, however, when all variables about the respondents’ access to network partners who provide support are excluded from the analyses (the results are not reported here in detail). In this case, the respondents’ investments in social capital show significant positive influences on their intentions ever to have a second child or to have a first child within the next two years. Transfers of ‘important and substantive support’ to other network partners are used as indicators for long-term exchange relationships and investments in social capital. Nevertheless, these indirect measures of the past or future availability of supportive resources are not relevant as people adjust their fertility intentions directly to the resources they receive or would receive if they need them. 从受访者那里获得或即将获得“实质性和重要支持”的网络伙伴数量也没有显示出任何影响。然而,当分析中排除所有关于受访者接触提供支持的网络伙伴的变量时,情况并非如此(此处不详细报告结果)。在这种情况下,受访者对社会资本的投资对其在未来两年内生育第二个孩子或第一个孩子的意愿产生了显著的积极影响。向其他网络伙伴转移“重要和实质性的支持”被用作长期交换关系和社会资本投资的指标。然而,这些对过去或未来可用支持资源的间接衡量并不重要,因为人们会根据他们需要时所获得或即将获得的资源直接调整生育意愿。
Although the characteristics of the respondents, their husbands/partners, and their households are primarily used as control variables, they document some interesting results that will be discussed selectively in the following. Women who intend to start education or who live in high income households plan to postpone the birth of a first child. It is shown elsewhere (Bühler 2005) that the latter effect is caused by an economically very successful group of respondents who belong to the highest 10 per cent quintile of the equivalence income distribution. They live 虽然受访者、其丈夫/伴侣及其家庭的特点主要用作控制变量,但它们记录了一些有趣的结果,将在下文有选择地讨论。打算开始接受教育或生活在高收入家庭的女性计划推迟生育第一个孩子。其他地方的研究表明(Bühler 2005),后一种效应是由在经济上非常成功的受访者群体引起的,他们属于等值收入分配最高的10%的五分之一。他们生活
Table 6: 表6:
Determinants of fertility intentions: Access to social capital, characteristics of respondents, their husbands/partners and their households (ordinal logit regressions) 生育意愿的决定因素:社会资本、受访者及其丈夫/伴侣和家庭的特征(序数逻辑回归)
Unstandardised coefficients (standard errors); 非标准化系数(标准误差);
Levels of significance: * <= 0.1;^(****) <= 0.05;^(******) <= 0.01\leq 0.1 ;{ }^{* *} \leq 0.05 ;{ }^{* * *} \leq 0.01. 重要程度:* <= 0.1;^(****) <= 0.05;^(******) <= 0.01\leq 0.1 ;{ }^{* *} \leq 0.05 ;{ }^{* * *} \leq 0.01 。
in small households of mostly two persons with incomes far above average. The intention to have a second child and the timing of its birth are very much influenced by the age of the respondents and of their husbands or partners. Women that had their first child by the age of 30 intend to have a second child significantly more often in comparison to the female respondents who had their first child at age 30 to 34 , but they also intend to postpone the birth of this child as the significant negative signs of the coefficients document. The timing of the second child also depends on the respondents’ employment situation. Compared to unemployed women, respondents that are in education or are not working intend to postpone the birth of the second child. The latter effect is primarily caused by women on parental leave. Finally, the results show some evidence that the economic situation of the household matters as far as the respondents’ intention to have a third child is concerned. This is documented by the significant positive effect of the household’s equivalence income. 收入远高于平均水平的两人小家庭。受访者及其丈夫或伴侣的年龄对生育第二个孩子的意愿和生育时间有很大影响。与30至34岁生育第一个孩子的女性受访者相比,30岁之前生育第一个孩子的女性更倾向于生育第二个孩子,但她们也倾向于推迟生育时间,正如系数所显示的显著负面迹象。生育第二个孩子的时机还取决于受访者的就业状况。与失业女性相比,正在接受教育或未工作的受访者倾向于推迟生育第二个孩子。后者主要是由休育儿假的女性造成的。最后,结果表明,就受访者生育第三个孩子的意愿而言,家庭的经济状况很重要。家庭等值收入产生的显著积极影响证明了这一点。
In a second step, the analyses focus on the relevance of relationships of direct and indirect reciprocity. Two models are estimated (see Table 7). Model 1 considers the number of direct and indirect reciprocal relationships. Model 2 addresses the relevance of the respondents’ direct parents among the number of relationships of indirect reciprocity. Both models consider the same set of control variables that is used for the estimates in Table 6. For a better presentation, however, only the effects of the variables that represent the direct and indirect reciprocal relationships are listed. The results document the significance of indirect reciprocal relationships for the respondents’ fertility intensions. The more they reported about relationships with family members and kin, the more they intend to have a second child or to have a first or a second child within the next two years. According to the intended timing of the first or the second child, this effect is primarily caused by the direct parents of the respondents, as the results of Model 2 show. Nevertheless, in the context of the general intention to have a second child, other relatives exert some positive influence, too. Relationships of direct reciprocity to friends, colleagues, neighbours, or acquaintances have either a negative impact or show no relevance. Although this group of network partners is an important source for borrowed money, it does not provide resources for the respondents that influence their fertility intentions in a positive way. 第二步,分析的重点是直接和间接互惠关系的相关性。我们估计了两个模型(见表7)。模型1考虑了直接和间接互惠关系的数量。模型2研究了受访者直系亲属在间接互惠关系数量中的相关性。这两个模型都考虑了表6中用于估计的同一组控制变量。然而,为了更好地展示,只列出了代表直接和间接互惠关系的变量的影响。结果表明,间接互惠关系对受访者的生育意愿有重要影响。他们报告与家人和亲属的关系越多,就越打算在两年内生第二个孩子或生第一个或第二个孩子。根据生第一个或第二个孩子的预期时间,这种影响主要是由受访者的直系亲属造成的,正如模型2的结果所示。然而,在生第二个孩子的总体意愿方面,其他亲属也施加了一些积极的影响。与朋友、同事、邻居或熟人的直接互惠关系要么有负面影响,要么没有相关性。虽然这一组网络伙伴是借款的重要来源,但它并没有为受访者提供资源,以积极的方式影响他们的生育意愿。
Table 7: 表7:
Determinants of fertility intentions: Indirect and direct reciprocal relationships (ordinal logistic regression) 生育意愿的决定因素:间接和直接相互关系(序贯逻辑回归)
Individuals do not live in isolation. They are embedded in social environments that influence their preferences and shape their opportunities to follow particular courses of action by providing valuable resources to them. Individuals are aware of these network-related resources and take them into account in their decisions and planning. The availability of these resources depends on their distribution within the social network as well as on the characters of individuals’ personal relationships with network partners who posses or control them. Network partners are willing to give these resources on the basis of exchange relationships of direct and indirect reciprocity. Due to individuals’ transfers of goods and services to network partners, they receive the right to be provided with resources from the same or other network partners if in need of them. Social relationships and social networks generate social capital on the basis of reciprocal exchange. 个人并非孤立地生活。他们置身于社会环境中,社会环境通过提供宝贵的资源,影响他们的偏好,并决定他们采取特定行动的机会。个人了解这些与网络相关的资源,并在决策和计划中加以考虑。这些资源的可用性取决于它们在社会网络中的分布,以及个人与拥有或控制这些资源的网络伙伴的个人关系。网络伙伴愿意在直接和间接互惠交换关系的基础上提供这些资源。由于个人向网络伙伴转让商品和服务,他们有权在需要时从相同或其他网络伙伴那里获得资源。社会关系和社会网络在互惠交换的基础上产生社会资本。
This general form of social capital can directly be applied to reproductive intentions and behaviour. The decision to have a child is associated with long-term costs and uncertainties that significantly intervene in a household’s economic situation and social structure. Thus, one can hypothesise that individuals intend to have a first or another child if they perceive to possess or to have access to an amount of resources that is subjectively adequate to handle the expected emotional, economic, and social costs caused by the child. These resources can be acquired to some extent by personal relationships, i.e., by ongoing interpersonal exchange processes. The resources may be fertility specific, for example having access to informal child care possibilities, knowing people who help with the household, or who assist in case of problems with the children. However, they may also be of a multi-purpose nature, for example in the form of money, time, influence, or active support. These resources influence fertility indirectly as they help to stabilise the economic and social situation of an individual or a household, which again has an impact on reproductive goals. This aspect applies to Bulgaria and to many other parts of Central and Eastern Europe because these countries still have to handle serious economic problems and cope with low levels of income for a wide range of their populations. 这种一般形式的社会资本可以直接应用于生育意图和行为。生育决定与长期成本和不确定性相关,这些成本和不确定性会显著影响家庭的经济状况和社会结构。因此,我们可以假设,如果个人认为拥有或可以获得一定数量的资源,并且主观上认为这些资源足以应对孩子带来的情感、经济和社会成本,那么他们就会打算生育第一个或第二个孩子。这些资源在一定程度上可以通过人际关系获得,即通过持续的人际交流过程获得。这些资源可能与生育有关,例如获得非正式的儿童保育机会,认识可以帮助做家务的人,或者在孩子出现问题时提供帮助的人。然而,它们也可能具有多用途性质,例如金钱、时间、影响力或积极支持等形式。这些资源间接影响生育率,因为它们有助于稳定个人或家庭的经济和社会状况,而这又会影响生育目标。这一点适用于保加利亚和中欧及东欧的许多其他地区,因为这些国家仍然需要应对严重的经济问题,并应对其广大人口的低收入问题。
The empirical analyses address basic attributes of fertility-related social capital: different kinds of supportive resources, networks of giving and receiving support, and personal relationships that are characterised by direct or indirect reciprocal exchange. On the basis of survey data from Bulgarian women aged 18 to 34, estimates from ordered logit regressions confirm the relevance of multi-purpose social capital for fertility intentions, but they also document that only particular resources are relevant. Having access to network partners that provide ‘important and substantive support’ positively influences the quantum and the timing of fertility intentions. However, an increasing number of network partners that provide ‘small help’ in daily activities shows, with the exception of the intention to have a third child, a negative or no effect. Moreover, having access to borrowed money 经验分析涉及与生育相关的社会资本的基本属性:不同类型的支助资源、给予和接受支助的网络以及以直接或间接互惠交换为特征的个人关系。根据对18至34岁保加利亚女性的调查数据,有序逻辑回归的估计值证实了多用途社会资本与生育意愿的相关性,但同时也表明只有特定的资源才具有相关性。拥有能够提供“重要且实质性支持”的网络伙伴,会对生育意愿的数量和时间产生积极影响。然而,除了生育第三个孩子的意愿外,拥有越来越多的在日常活动中提供“小帮助”的网络伙伴会产生负面影响或没有影响。此外,能够获得借款
is not of any relevance. These results lead to the conclusion that women’s fertility intentions do not depend on personal social capital that provides access to resources which make daily life easier, but on resources that may influence their personal situation substantially. Therefore, fertility-related social capital might be perceived as a kind of income that helps individuals to cope with their economic and social situation in general. 无关紧要。这些结果得出的结论是,女性的生育意愿并不取决于个人社会资本,即获取资源以使日常生活更轻松的能力,而是取决于可能对其个人状况产生重大影响的各种资源。因此,与生育相关的社会资本可以被视为一种收入,帮助个人应对总体经济和社会状况。
Investments in social capital or the existence of long-term exchange relationships, measured by the number of network partners that received or might receive support from the respondent show no effect on fertility intentions as soon as the number of network partners providing supportive resources are considered in the analyses. People’s behavioural intentions, therefore, rest on their perceptions of having access to the resources of other people more so than on the indirect view of their activities that ensure this access. However, subsequent analyses should clarify whether it is meaningful in general to consider investments in social capital within a theory that explains individual behaviour as an outcome of social capital. 社会资本投资或长期交换关系(以接受或可能接受受访者支持的网络伙伴数量衡量)对生育意愿没有影响,只要在分析中考虑提供支持性资源的网络伙伴数量即可。因此,人们的行为意图取决于他们对获取他人资源的看法,而不是对确保这种获取的间接活动的看法。然而,随后的分析应该澄清,在将社会资本视为个人行为结果的理论上考虑社会资本投资是否具有普遍意义。
Individual relationships of indirect reciprocity also matter to fertility intentions. Relationships of direct reciprocity exert no influence or a negative one. Exchange relationships of indirect reciprocity provide flexible access to resources as they do not have to be repaid in the short-term and not directly to the network partners that provide them. The direct parents of the respondents are of high significance in this context. The question thus arises whether it is meaningful to use the complex theory and method of social capital when in the end they only identify intergenerational transfers and support. Note that the effects of indirect and direct reciprocal relationships largely reflect the resources that are transferred by these relationships. Direct parents are influential, because they are the primary source of ‘important and substantive support’. Direct reciprocal relationships with friends, colleagues, or neighbours show a negative influence or no influence because they are important sources of borrowed money. Therefore, in answer to this objection, variables about direct and indirect reciprocal relationships are needed that are independent from the resources transferred. However, in the context of substantive support our results as well as findings from Poland (Bühler and Fratzcak 2004) suggest to limit the scope on intergenerational transfers from parents to their children. 间接互惠的个人关系对生育意愿也有影响。直接互惠的关系则没有影响或产生负面影响。间接互惠的交换关系可以灵活地获取资源,因为这些资源不必在短期内偿还,也不必直接偿还给提供资源的网络伙伴。在这种情况下,受访者的直系亲属非常重要。因此,问题在于,如果社会资本最终只识别代际转移和支持,那么使用复杂的社会资本理论和方法是否还有意义。请注意,间接和直接互惠关系的影响主要反映了这些关系转移的资源。直系亲属是有影响力的,因为他们是“重要和实质性支持”的主要来源。与朋友、同事或邻居的直接互惠关系则表现出负面影响或没有影响,因为他们是借钱的重要来源。因此,为了回答这个异议,需要与转移的资源无关的直接和间接互惠关系的变量。然而,在实质性支持方面,我们的结果以及来自波兰的研究结果(Bühler和Fratzcak,2004)表明,应限制父母向子女的代际转移范围。
Although fertility intentions were chosen to allow for a causal interpretation of the covariates’ effects, the principal problem of causality remains. Women could select the transaction partners in their networks according to the resources they need to pursue their fertility intentions. For example, if they intend to have a child, they ask their parents and relatives for substantive support that enables them to put their reproductive plans into action. If they intend to postpone the birth of a child, their activities are less focused on this event and, for example, more related to problems in daily life. Therefore, direct reciprocal relationships with friends may be more often named because these are major sources for bor- 虽然生育意愿的选择是为了对协变量的效应进行因果解释,但因果关系的主要问题仍然存在。女性可以根据追求生育意愿所需的资源来选择其网络中的交易伙伴。例如,如果她们打算要一个孩子,她们会向父母和亲戚寻求实质性支持,以实现她们的生育计划。如果她们打算推迟生育,她们的活动就不会那么专注于这件事,而是更多地关注日常生活中的问题。因此,与朋友的直接互惠关系可能会更频繁地被提及,因为这些是bor-
rowed money. This problem is caused by the fact that the information about the respondents’ social capital rests to a large extent on concrete transactions within a particular period. Thus, these activities may reflect intentions that already exist. Panel information would reduce this problem and so would a measurement of social capital that is not related to particular transactions and time periods. Future studies should have the latter aspect as a central focus since this would provide insight into the general stock of social capital and its implications on fertility intentions and reproductive behaviour. 划船的钱。这个问题是由以下事实引起的:关于受访者社会资本的信息在很大程度上取决于特定时期内的具体交易。因此,这些活动可能反映已经存在的意图。小组信息可以减少这个问题,而与特定交易和时间段无关的社会资本测量也可以减少这个问题。未来的研究应将后者作为核心重点,因为这可以深入了解社会资本的一般存量及其对生育意愿和生殖行为的影响。
Acknowledgments 致谢
We want to thank Peter Preisendörfer and the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments as well as Susann Backer for English editing. 感谢彼得·普雷森多夫(Peter Preisendörfer)和两位匿名审稿人提出的宝贵意见,以及苏珊·巴克(Susann Backer)的英文编辑工作。
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4 If, for example, a respondent experienced ‘substantive and important support’ provided from her network partners, the number of these network partners represents her amount of social capital according to this resource. If she did not experience this kind of support, the number of network partners that would provide her with ‘important and substantive support’ represent her amount of social capital. 4 例如,如果受访者从其网络合作伙伴那里获得了“实质性的重要支持”,那么这些网络合作伙伴的数量就代表了她在这方面的社会资本。如果她没有获得这种支持,那么能够提供“重要且实质性的支持”的网络合作伙伴的数量就代表了她在这方面的社会资本。
5 Information about a household’s income is covered by an ordinally scaled variable with the following categories: ‘up to 100Leva^(')100 \mathrm{Leva}^{\prime}, ‘101 to 200 Leva’, ’ 201 to 300 Leva ‘, ’ 301 to 400 Leva’, ‘401 to 600 Leva’, ’ 601 to 800 Leva’, ’ 801 to 1,000 Leva’, and ’ 1,001 Leva or more’, To calculate the equivalence income, the value of the centre of each income interval is taken. As to the highest income category, a value of 1,200 Leva is set. The houschold size is weighted according to the modified OECD scale (Dennis and Guio 2004). The first adult is weighted with the factor 1,0 . Every additional household member who is older than 13 years receives a weight of 0.5 . If he or she is aged 13 or younger, a weight of 0.3 is set. 5 家庭收入信息由一个有序标度变量表示,分为以下几类:“0列弗以下”、“101至200列弗”、“201至300列弗”、“301至400列弗”、“401至600列弗”、“601至800列弗”、“801至1000列弗”和“1001列弗以上”。为了计算等值收入,取每个收入区间中心的值。至于最高收入类别,设定值为1200列弗。家庭规模根据经修订的OECD标准(Dennis和Guio,2004)进行加权。第一个成人的权重为1.0。每个13岁以上的额外家庭成员的权重为0.5。如果年龄在13岁或以下,权重为0.3。
^(6){ }^{6} For a better comparison, Table 5 reports the mean proportions of indirect and direct reciprocal relationships and of the different groups of network partners. It also includes the group of husbands, partners, and children. However, the multivariate analyses consider the real numbers of the different relationships and groups of network partners. See Table 1 for the descriptive statistics of these variables. ^(6){ }^{6} 为了更好地进行比较,表5列出了间接和直接互惠关系以及不同网络伙伴群体的平均比例。它还包括丈夫、伴侣和子女群体。然而,多元分析考虑了不同关系和网络伙伴群体的实数。这些变量的描述性统计信息见表1。
Notes: 备注: ^(2){ }^{2} The respondent did not report about an experienced transfer of this resource during the last two years and also does not know a network partner who would provide or would ask for this resource. ^(2){ }^{2} 受访者表示,在过去两年中,他并未经历过此类资源的转移,也不认识可以提供或需要此类资源的网络合作伙伴。 ^(b){ }^{\mathrm{b}} The respondent experienced at least one transfer of this resource during the last two years or knows at least one network partner who would provide or would ask to be provided with this resource. ^(b){ }^{\mathrm{b}} 受访者在过去两年中至少经历过一次此类资源的转移,或者至少认识一个可以提供或要求提供此类资源的网络合作伙伴。