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NFLX First Take

TMT Breakout
Jan 21, 2025
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Looks great at first blush - Massive Q4 subs 18.9M vs bogeys at 13M and guide better than feared:

Q1 Rev guide $10.42B vs street at $10.48B and bogeys closer to $10.3B
$44B vs street at $43.5B and bogeys closer to $43B (14-17% fx neutral vs street at 13% and bogeys at 14%)
Operating Margin also above at 29% vs previous guide of 28% and street at 28.4%

$15B Buyback

Raising prices as well:

To that end, we are adjusting prices today across most plans in the US, Canada, Portugal and Argentina (which was already factored into the 2025 guidance we provided in October 2024).

NFLX RESULTS: Q4
- Streaming paid net change +18.91M, +44% y/y, EST +9.18M
- UCAN streaming paid net change +4.82M, +72% y/y, EST +1.75M
- EMEA streaming paid net change +5M, -1% y/y, EST +3.09M
- LATAM streaming paid net change +4.15M, +77% y/y, EST +1.50M
- APAC streaming paid net change +4.94M, +70% y/y, EST +2.70M
- Streaming paid memberships 301.63M, +16% y/y, EST 290.93M
- Revenue $10.25B, +16% y/y, EST $10.11B
- EPS $4.27 vs. $2.11 y/y, EST $4.18
- Operating income $2.27B, +52% y/y, EST $2.2B
- Operating margin 22.2% vs. 16.9% y/y, EST 21.9%
- Free cash flow $1.38B, -13% y/y, EST $1.06B
GUIDANCE: Q1
- Guides revenue $10.42B, EST $10.48B
- Guides EPS $5.58, EST $6.01
- Guides operating income $2.94B, EST $3.13B
- Guides operating margin 28.2%, EST 29.8%
F/Y GUIDANCE
- Guides revenue $43.5B to $44.5B, saw $43B to $44B, EST $43.59B
- Guides revenue +12% to +14%, EST +12.2%
- Guides operating margin 29%, saw 28%, EST 28.4%
- Guides free cash flow about $8B, EST $8.51B

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