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Breakdown Metrics Applied: Identifying Local Bottoms in a Bull Market

Learn about how to apply our new suite of metrics to better identify local bottoms in a bull market and start applying these insights in your trading strategies.

Breakdown Metrics Applied: Identifying Local Bottoms in a Bull Market

In a significant development for the on-chain analysis field, Glassnode has recently launched a suite of 28 new metrics designed to offer an even more granular view of the digital asset market. You can read more about them in our original announcement here.
在链上分析领域取得重大进展之际,Glassnode 近期推出了一套包含 28 项新指标的工具集,旨在为数字资产市场提供更为细致的洞察视角。更多详情可参阅我们发布的原始公告。

These granular metrics can be a game-changer for traders. They provide highly detailed and intuitive insights that can be translated into potential buy and sell signals. One powerful use case for these new metrics is identifying seller exhaustion across different age cohorts within short-term holders.

Applying our new Breakdown metrics, traders can now more precisely pinpoint moments of severe unrealized loss and capitulation, which often signal local market bottoms and potential entry points during a bull market. This framework, explored in detail in this report and summarised below, provides actionable insights for traders aiming to optimize their market entries or DCA strategies.

Why Focus on Short-Term Holders?

In the context of on-chain analysis, long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) represent distinct groups with different behaviours and market impacts. Short-term holders are often newer entrants or speculative traders who are more sensitive to price changes. During bull markets, these investors are responsible for the majority of realized losses, as they are more prone to selling in response to market volatility. This behaviour makes the analysis of short-term holders particularly valuable for identifying local market bottoms.

Benefits of Applying Breakdowns to STHs

By breaking down the short-term holder cohort into granular age bands, we help traders pinpoint periods of seller exhaustion more effectively. For example, we can observe how unrealized loss pressure and capitulation events start with the shortest timeframes (1 day) and propagate across longer timeframes (1 week to 1 month, and longer) within the short-term holder group. This inside-out progression provides a clearer signal of potential local bottoms and subsequent market reversals.
通过将短期持有者群体细分为具体的年龄段,我们帮助交易者更有效地确定卖家疲惫期。例如,我们可以观察到未实现亏损压力和投降事件如何从最短的时间框架(1 天)开始,并在短期持有者群体中逐渐扩展到更长的时间框架(1 周至 1 个月,甚至更长)。这种由内而外的进展为潜在的局部底部和随后的市场反转提供了更清晰的信号。

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In other words, with the granular insights made possible by the Breakdown metrics, traders can detect confluences of capitulation events across different short-term timeframes, which significantly enhances the likelihood of identifying a local bottom.
换言之,通过 Breakdown 指标提供的细致洞察,交易者能够发现不同短期时间框架内投降事件的汇聚点,这极大地提高了识别局部底部的可能性。

Framework for Identifying Local Bottoms in a Bull Market

To identify seller exhaustion, we use a combination of key metrics that provide insights into both unrealized and realized losses within the short-term holder cohort. The framework is comprised of the following metrics:

  • STH MVRV by Age: The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) measures the unrealized profit or loss of an asset. When the MVRV trades significantly below the mean, it indicates heightened unrealized losses among holders. This helps detect early signs of sell-side pressure, as significant unrealized losses often precede actual selling activity by short-term holders.
    按年龄划分的 STH MVRV:市场价值与已实现价值(MVRV)比率衡量资产的未实现盈亏。当 MVRV 显著低于平均值时,表明持有者中未实现亏损加剧。这有助于发现卖方压力的早期迹象,因为重大的未实现亏损通常预示着短期持有者的实际卖出行为。
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  • STH SOPR by Age: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides insight into whether the unrealized financial pressure observed in the MVRV is being acted upon. A negative SOPR Z-Score indicates that short-term holders are capitulating, selling their assets at a loss, and contributing to sell-side pressure.
    按年龄划分的 STH SOPR:已花费输出利润率(SOPR)揭示了在 MVRV 中观察到的未实现财务压力是否正在被采取行动。SOPR 的负 Z 分数表明短期持有者正在投降,以亏损出售其资产,从而加剧了卖方压力。
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  • STH Realized Loss by Age: This metric assesses the magnitude of losses that have been realized by short-term holders. High realized loss values confirm that the sell-side pressure identified by the MVRV and SOPR metrics has materialized, validating periods of seller exhaustion by quantifying the magnitude of losses realized.
    短期持有者实际亏损年龄:该指标评估短期持有者已实现亏损的规模。高实际亏损值证实了 MVRV 和 SOPR 指标所识别的卖方压力已成现实,通过量化已实现亏损的规模,验证了卖方疲惫的时期。
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By using Z-Scores, we standardize these metrics, allowing for easier comparison and identification of significant deviations from the mean. Z-Scores highlight periods of extreme behaviour, making it simpler to detect when unrealized and realized losses are unusually high. This standardization helps confirm genuine periods of seller exhaustion by filtering out noise and focusing on statistically significant events, providing traders with clearer signals.
通过使用 Z 分数,我们将这些指标标准化,便于比较和识别与均值的显著偏差。Z 分数突显极端行为时期,使得未实现和已实现损失异常高的情况更易察觉。这种标准化有助于确认卖方疲惫的真实时期,通过过滤噪音并聚焦于统计上显著的事件,为交易者提供更清晰的信号。

Practical Applications for Traders

Using Glassnode's new Breakdown metrics to identify points of seller exhaustion during a bull market can offer numerous advantages for traders. Here are the key benefits:
利用 Glassnode 的新 Breakdown 指标在牛市中识别卖家疲惫点,能为交易者带来诸多益处。关键优势如下:

  • Early Detection of Local Bottoms: By pinpointing moments of severe unrealized loss and capitulation among short-term holders, traders can identify local market bottoms before they become evident, providing opportunities for early entry points.
  • Optimized Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategies: Understanding periods of seller exhaustion allows traders to implement DCA strategies more effectively, buying assets at lower prices during local bottoms and reducing average purchase costs.
    优化美元成本平均法(DCA)策略:理解卖家疲惫期使交易者能更有效地执行 DCA 策略,在局部底部以更低价格购入资产,从而降低平均购买成本。
  • Enhanced Market Timing: By observing how sell-side pressure propagates from the shortest timeframes to longer timeframes within the short-term holder cohort, traders can better time their market entries and exits, maximizing profits and minimizing losses.
  • Strategic Flexibility: The granular breakdown of short-term holders into age bands allows traders to apply this framework across various trading strategies, from day trading to swing trading, ensuring that they can adapt their approach based on specific market conditions.

By leveraging the insights provided by our new Breakdown metrics, traders can gain a competitive edge in the market, making more strategic and profitable decisions.

Start Leveraging Glassnode’s Breakdown Metrics for Your Trades Today
立即利用 Glassnode 的细分指标优化您的交易策略

Currently, these powerful breakdown metrics are exclusively available with the Glassnode Enterprise plan. A complete overview of new metrics, dashboards, and documentation is available here.
目前,这些强大的分析指标仅在 Glassnode 企业版计划中独家提供。关于新指标、仪表板及文档的完整概览,请点击此处查阅。

If you are an institutional trader or investor and would like to leverage these metrics to gain a deeper edge in trading the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets, please contact our institutional sales team today.

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