TMTB EOD Wrap
QQQs +1.23%. Broad based strength today as plenty of stocks continue to hit new highs:
Market rallied on Trump’s Mexico/Canada reversal alongside China’s fairly benign retaliatory response to Tariffs. Trump said he will speak to Xi at the appropriate time but he is in no rush (translation: as long as market not selling off, no rush). Treasuries rallied a bit (yields down 4-5bps across the curve) in part due to a dovish JOLTs report ahead of NFP on Friday. Market continues to price in 45bps worth of cuts this year. BTC - 3%.
Expensive software outperformed today and flows continue to shift to internet as it’s seen as a bright spot and clean winner of continued AI progress.
Internet
RDDT +6.5% to new highs as investors continue to think co is likely to post a big beat when they report
RBLX +3.6% to new highs as well ahead of the print on Thursday. Expectations high, but seems like even a small miss will want to get bought given burgeoning narrative of AI winner, revenue tailwinds, in-game monetization initiatives, etc…
SPOT +13% on better premium sub adds and better EBIT guide - margin bear case seems to be thoroughly disproved at this point. Continues to be one of the cleanest stories in internet.
META +1% - TheInformation reported META is merging teams managing its Messenger and FB businesses into one entity as co gets ready for layoffs next week.
NFLX +1.5% poked its head above $1k briefly, likely helped by SPOT read-through
UBER +3.8% ahead of the print next week - bulls looking for better mobility results to help multiple stabilize/re-rate. Px action has been more positive here as of late.
SHOP +4.5% as some took PYPL’s weaker results to imply share loss potentially vs. SHOP
AMZN +2% more highs ahead of the print later this week
TTD - 4% as Clev was out negative calling out weaker brand spend, limited budget flush, and CTV expected to decel in 2025. They also said they are hearing AMZN is using a lower take rate to push harder to win 3p DSP spend in 2025
ROKU +1.3%: Clev was mixed on brand spend, but Yipit raised Q4 numbers
China internet outperformed” PDD +8.5% as Chinese tariff retaliation less than expected; BABA/JD +3%; BIDU +6%
DASH +2% as M-sci raised Q4 GOV estimates and said Q1TD tracking ahead of street
EXPE -70bps ahead of earnings this week despite M-sci saying Q1TD volumes pacing ahead of Q4.
Semis
MRVL -3.5%: more noise around AI chip taking T3 share, this time from JPM. A reader elaborates:
Not much new imo, but likely still get some chop every time an Asia datapoint like this comes out until MRVL reassures on their earnings call.
AMD +4% ahead of the print — investors feeling Deepseek validated AMD’s open-source model and they are better positioned in a world of AI at the edge.
Other AI names strong: MU +1%; NVDA +2%; TSM +2.5%; ARM +4%
CLS +10% continues to rip to new highs following last week’s earnings as investors now view it as one of the cleanest ways in semis to play ASIC
NXPI -1.2% as auto strength offset by continued industrial/IoT weakness. Nothing to change the narrative here. Other analogs mixed: ADI +40bps; TXN -20bps; ON +65bps
Networking names strong: CIEN +2.8%; ALAB +4%; CRDO +6%
Software
IBM +1.3% as analyst day started today and CFO said they are aiming for 5% revenue growth on a cc basis under new framework and aiming for FCF to grow 2 to 3 ppts ahead of rev growth. Sw growth 10%. All roughly in line with expects
PLTR +24% on a beat and raise and forward guide implying further acceleration
NOW -1%: didn’t hear anything new. Investors continue to digest what change in pricing model means for both #s and a multiple that is priced to perfection; hearing some concerned around gov’t exposure given DOGE/Elon.
CRM +1% as co fired 1k people outside of sales division
MSFT +40bps continues to lag as stock firmly in funding short camp
Cloud consumption names strong: MDB +2.6%; SNOW +3.5% breaking out; DDOG +1.8%
INTU -1.3% continues to underperform
Elsewhere:
PYPL -13% on weaker branded checkout growth and weak profit growth, implying share loss. Bears question why PYPL is significantly undergrowing e-comm in a quarter where everyone else accelerated. They also harp on weak branded growth and saying BT repricing blew up branded button driving share loss and call out increased competition from SHOP and AAPL Pay going forward… Sell-side was generally out defending the name saying move over done.
TSLA +2% as they offered10% insurance discount if you drive more using its ‘Full Self-Driving’ system
Bullish and Bearish Weekly Option Flow
