Nvidia Investors Look to Huang CES Speech to Spark Next Breakout
Nvidia 投资者期待黄仁勋在 CES 演讲中引发下一个突破

CEO expected to speak at trade show on Monday in Las Vegas
首席执行官预计将在周一于拉斯维加斯的贸易展上发言
Focus will be on sales outlook for Nvidia’s Blackwell chip
重点将放在 Nvidia 的 Blackwell 芯片的销售前景上

Jensen HuangPhotographer: Bridget Bennett/Bloomberg
Jensen Huang 摄影师：Bridget Bennett/Bloomberg

By Jeran Wittenstein and Ryan Vlastelica
由 Jeran Wittenstein 和 Ryan Vlastelica 撰写

6 January 2025 at 18:52 GMT+8
2025 年 1 月 6 日 18:52 GMT+8

Updated on

7 January 2025 at 05:15 GMT+8

更新于 2025 年 1 月 7 日 05:15 GMT+8

Nvidia Corp. investors have high hopes that Monday’s speech from CEO Jensen Huang will spark a fresh breakout in the chipmaker’s shares, which just ended at their first record close since November.
英伟达公司投资者对首席执行官黄仁勋周一的演讲寄予厚望，认为这将推动该芯片制造商的股票实现新的突破，该股票刚刚结束了自去年十一月以来的首次创纪录收盘。

Huang is set to take the stage Monday evening at the closely-watched CES trade show in Las Vegas. Nvidia has typically used the event to showcase consumer devices using its chips. However, investors will focus today on any commentary on the Blackwell chip, considered Nvidia’s next major growth driver. Despite seeing robust demand, Blackwell has faced supply constraints due in part to manufacturing challenges that have slowed its rollout.
黄将在拉斯维加斯备受关注的 CES 展会上于周一晚上登台。Nvidia 通常利用这一活动展示使用其芯片的消费设备。然而，投资者今天将关注关于 Blackwell 芯片的任何评论，该芯片被认为是 Nvidia 下一个主要的增长驱动力。尽管需求强劲，Blackwell 仍面临供应限制，部分原因是制造挑战减缓了其推出速度。

“The expectation is that Blackwell demand remains very strong,” said Matt Cioppa, a portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Equity Group. “That could bring the ultimate longer-term opportunity for Nvidia back into focus for the market.”
“预计 Blackwell 的需求将保持非常强劲，”富兰克林邓普顿股票集团的投资组合经理 Matt Cioppa 表示。“这可能会使市场重新关注 Nvidia 的最终长期机会。”

Investors have reasons to be optimistic. Over the past six months, Huang’s comments about demand for the chips have boosted the stock. In October, he called Blackwell demand “insane,” and in November he said the chips are shipping in the current quarter amid “very strong” demand.
投资者有理由保持乐观。在过去六个月中，黄对芯片需求的评论推动了股票上涨。在十月份，他称黑威尔的需求“疯狂”，而在十一月份，他表示芯片在当前季度的发货量处于“非常强劲”的需求中。

The shares posted a monthly loss in December, but still gained 171% in 2024, making them by far the biggest single driver of the S&P 500 Index’s overall gain. The stock is already up 11% this year, including a gain of 3.4% on Monday. With a market capitalization of $3.66 trillion, it is close to re-overtaking Apple Inc. as the largest company; the iPhone maker has a market cap of $3.7 trillion.
该股票在 12 月份出现了月度亏损，但在 2024 年仍然上涨了 171%，使其成为标准普尔 500 指数整体涨幅的最大单一推动力。该股票今年已上涨 11%，包括周一上涨了 3.4%。市值为 3.66 万亿美元，接近重新超越苹果公司成为最大公司；苹果公司的市值为 3.7 万亿美元。

Earnings Disappointment 盈利失望

Yet the stock briefly slumped after Nvidia’s Nov. 20 earnings report. The company’s revenue forecast failed to impress Wall Street, which had become accustomed to projections that topped average estimates by wider margins.
然而，在英伟达 11 月 20 日的财报发布后，股票短暂下跌。该公司的收入预测未能令华尔街印象深刻，华尔街已经习惯于那些超出平均预期更大幅度的预测。

The lull in the shares has come as excitement about AI spending has spread to other areas of the semiconductor industry.
股票的平静是因为对人工智能支出的兴奋已经扩展到半导体行业的其他领域。

Broadcom Inc. shares have soared more than 30% in the past few weeks after the chipmaker projected a boom in the market for AI components that it designs for data-center operators. Marvell Technology Inc. shares have rallied more than 20% since it reported better-than-forecast earnings on demand for its custom AI chips.
博通公司（Broadcom Inc.）的股票在过去几周上涨了超过 30%，因为这家芯片制造商预测其为数据中心运营商设计的人工智能组件市场将迎来繁荣。马维尔科技公司（Marvell Technology Inc.）的股票自从其报告的定制人工智能芯片需求超出预期的收益以来，已上涨超过 20%。

Morgan Stanley analysts led by Joseph Moore likened the rallies in those stocks to a wealth transfer from Nvidia, whose shares sank for four consecutive days in the wake of Broadcom’s report, shedding more than $200 billion in market value.
摩根士丹利分析师约瑟夫·摩尔领导的团队将这些股票的反弹比作对英伟达的财富转移，后者在博通报告发布后连续四天股价下跌，市值蒸发超过 2000 亿美元。

Nvidia remains a top pick at Morgan Stanley, with the analysts arguing that the chipmaker will take market share this year. They’re also looking to Huang’s keynote to be a “positive event.”
英伟达仍然是摩根士丹利的首选，分析师认为这家芯片制造商将在今年获得市场份额。他们还期待黄仁勋的主题演讲成为一个“积极的事件”。

“The messaging should be the same — Blackwell demand is exceptional, but supply constrained,” they wrote in a research note last month. “By mid-year we remain comfortable that the focus will remain on Blackwell, which will be the driving force behind revenue” in the second half of the year.
“信息应该是一样的——Blackwell 的需求非常强劲，但供应受限，”他们在上个月的研究报告中写道。“到年中，我们仍然相信，重点将继续放在 Blackwell 上，这将是下半年收入的驱动力。”

High Stakes 高风险

Jordan Klein, a tech-sector specialist at Mizuho Securities, sees the CES event and Huang’s keynote as tests of near-term sentiment and risk appetite toward tech.
瑞穗证券的科技行业专家乔丹·克莱因认为，CES 活动和黄的主题演讲是对近期市场情绪和风险偏好的考验。

If the stock drops or treads water in the days following Huang’s remarks, that “would be a modest negative in my view into January,” he wrote. Since the tech earnings season won’t begin until later this month, “investors will have little to measure fundamentals and outlooks until then,” he said.
如果股票在黄的言论之后几天内下跌或持平，他写道，“在我看来，这在一月份将是一个适度的负面影响。”由于科技财报季要到本月晚些时候才会开始，“投资者在那之前几乎没有什么可以衡量基本面和前景的依据，”他说。

The stakes for Nvidia shares may be elevated, as its surge has heightened valuation concerns. The stock trades at 19 times estimated revenue, making it one of the 10 most expensive Nasdaq 100 Index components by this metric. It also trades close to 35 times estimated earnings, compared with about 24 for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index.
Nvidia 股票的风险可能加大，因为其股价的飙升加剧了估值担忧。该股票的交易价格为预计收入的 19 倍，使其成为按此指标计算的纳斯达克 100 指数中 10 只最昂贵的成分股之一。它的交易价格接近预计收益的 35 倍，而费城证券交易所半导体指数约为 24 倍。

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investments, remains positive on Nvidia and other large technology stocks, but is bracing for “a lot more choppiness” ahead.
Emily Roland，John Hancock Investments 的联合首席投资策略师，对 Nvidia 和其他大型科技股持乐观态度，但准备迎接“更多的波动”。

“At some point there is going to be a ‘show me’ moment in 2025 that is going to have to reaffirm the story,” she said. “Valuation is clearly an issue, and it is important to note how extended the valuation is, even if the AI tailwinds remain intact.”
“在某个时刻，2025 年将会有一个‘给我看看’的时刻，这将不得不重申这个故事，”她说。“估值显然是一个问题，重要的是要注意估值的延展程度，即使人工智能的顺风仍然存在。”