Xi Cements Role as ‘Chief Economist,’ Shrinking Space for Debate
习近平巩固“首席经济学家”角色，压缩辩论空间

Drinking a glass of wine over lunch, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor at the time, talked freely as he was peppered with questions from economists at Western banks.
在午餐时喝一杯酒，当时的中国央行行长周小川在西方银行的经济学家提问时畅所欲言。

The laid-back atmosphere at the April 2015 meeting typified Zhou, a fluent English speaker who served as central bank governor for more than 15 years. He held exchanges every few quarters with analysts that offered China’s leadership the chance to hear different perspectives, according to a person familiar with the situation who — along with others Bloomberg spoke to — asked not to be identified discussing private meetings.
2015 年 4 月会议上的悠闲氛围体现了周的特点，他是一位流利的英语演讲者，担任中央银行行长超过 15 年。据一位熟悉情况的人士透露，他每隔几个季度与分析师进行交流，为中国领导层提供了听取不同观点的机会。这位知情人士以及其他与彭博社交谈的人士要求不透露身份，不愿讨论私人会议。

During President Xi Jinping’s first decade in power, policymakers sat down regularly with foreign economists and other analysts, in exchanges that were sometimes lively, according to people familiar with such meetings. Now, foreign experts only get irregular meetings with officials, which lack the meaningful debate of previous years, according to several people who have attended such talks.
在习近平主席执政的第一个十年里，决策者经常与外国经济学家和其他分析人士坐在一起交流，有时这些交流是生动的，据熟悉这类会议的人士称。现在，外国专家只不定期地与官员会面，缺乏以往年份的有意义的辩论，据一些参加过这类会谈的人称。

Chinese economists say they can’t tell whether their proposals are being heeded, with officials mostly nodding and taking notes in meetings, the people added. Comments from prominent analysts are deemed noise disrupting from Xi’s top-down messaging, said one person familiar with the leadership’s thinking.
中国经济学家表示，他们无法确定他们的建议是否被采纳，大多数官员在会议中只是点头并做笔记，据称。一位熟悉领导层思维的人表示，来自知名分析师的评论被视为干扰习近平自上而下传达信息的噪音。

“Xi Jinping is now the chief economist of China,” said Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, who was invited to attend an annual summit with senior officials and global executives in Beijing this year.
"习近平现在是中国的首席经济学家，"曾任摩根士丹利亚洲主席的史蒂芬·罗奇说，他被邀请参加今年在北京举行的一年一度峰会，与高级官员和全球高管会面。

China’s most-powerful leader since Mao Zedong has been clear about his plan for advanced manufacturing to propel his nation’s $17 trillion economy, as he steers the slumping property market to firmer ground. Xi reaffirmed that path at a once-a-term meeting on long-term strategy last week, rebuffing economist calls for policymakers to focus more on boosting consumer sentiment to rebalance growth.
中国自毛泽东以来最有权势的领导人已经明确表明了他对先进制造业推动国家 17 万亿美元经济的计划，同时他正在引导低迷的房地产市场走向更稳固的地步。习近平在上周一次每届会议上重申了这一路径，拒绝了经济学家呼吁决策者更多关注提振消费者情绪以重新平衡增长的要求。

That reflects a mismatch in how Xi and market economists view China’s situation: Beijing is betting on innovations such as electric cars and solar panels to boost growth and spending. Economists and foreign officials including US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen argue Chinese consumers won’t reach deeper into their wallets without a better social security net.
这反映了习近平和市场经济学家对中国局势看法的不匹配：北京押注于创新，如电动汽车和太阳能电池板，以促进增长和支出。经济学家和包括美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦在内的外国官员认为，中国消费者在没有更好的社会保障网络的情况下不会更深地伸手掏钱包。

Xi has refused to stimulate consumption with direct handouts, and his government has remained adamant about avoiding the big stimulus that fueled previous boom-and-bust cycles. The top leader has also made national security a priority, devoting $47.5 billion to a chip fund charged with ensuring China’s national champions can build cutting-edge semiconductors after the US moved to cut off supply.
习近平拒绝通过直接发放资金刺激消费，他的政府坚决避免之前推动经济繁荣和衰退周期的大规模刺激。这位最高领导人还将国家安全作为首要任务，投入 475 亿美元用于芯片基金，旨在确保中国的国家冠军能够在美国停止供应后建设尖端半导体。

Xi believes it was policies pushed for by pro-market voices that caused many of the problems he inherited when he came to power in 2012, such as decades of debt-fueled growth, said Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
习近平认为，许多他在 2012 年上台时继承的问题是由支持市场的声音推动的政策造成的，比如几十年来债务驱动的增长，亚洲协会政策研究所中国分析中心的中国政治研究员尼尔·托马斯说。

“The danger for investors is China’s leaders become increasingly out of touch with their concerns and implement policies that do little to improve economic conditions,” Thomas added. “Xi’s supreme leadership makes it risky for his advisors to share their own thoughts with analysts and scholars.”
“投资者面临的危险是中国领导人与他们的关切日益脱节，并实施对改善经济状况几乎没有作用的政策，”托马斯补充道。“习的至高领导地位使得他的顾问们与分析师和学者分享自己的想法变得风险重重。”

When Xi consolidated power with a precedent-defying third term in 2022, he installed a coterie of loyalists to top policymaking positions cementing his control over the world’s No. 2 economy.
2022 年，习近平以前所未有的第三个任期巩固了权力，他任命了一群忠诚的人担任最高决策职务，巩固了他对世界第二大经济体的控制。

They replaced a generation of trained economists including former Premier Li Keqiang, who came from a rival center of power to Xi and was associated with a more market-friendly vision. During the pandemic, for example, he advocated for balancing lockdowns with keeping business humming.
他们取代了一代受过训练的经济学家，包括前总理李克强，他来自与习近平相对立的权力中心，并与更加市场友好的愿景相关联。例如，在大流行期间，他主张在封锁与保持企业运转之间取得平衡。

Xi also retired Harvard-educated Liu He, who has built trust with advisors throughout his career, especially during his years with government advisory bodies, according to a person familiar. As vice premier in charge of economic and financial affairs, Liu’s policies earned him a reputation as the architect of his nation’s engagement with capitalist reforms.
习还退休了哈佛毕业的刘鹤，他在整个职业生涯中与顾问建立了信任，尤其是在担任政府咨询机构的年份，一位知情人士称。作为负责经济和金融事务的副总理，刘的政策使他赢得了作为他国与资本主义改革接触的建筑师的声誉。

The influence of Liu’s replacement, He Lifeng, is less clearly defined. Best known for working alongside Xi for decades in coastal provinces, his public speeches and scant writings on economic theory provide little insight into his policy beliefs. Even those in the system don’t know who He is influenced by or what guides his economic thinking, said one economist at a research firm.
刘的接替者何立峰的影响不太明确。他以与习近平在沿海省份共事几十年而闻名，他的公开演讲和有限的经济理论著作很少提供关于他政策信仰的见解。一位研究公司的经济学家表示，即使是在体制内的人也不知道何受到谁的影响，或者是什么指导了他的经济思想。

That decrease in dialogue with foreign experts is part of a broader pattern of reduced openness as tensions with the US rise. China is increasingly hiding data deemed unflattering to the economy, last year holding back the youth jobless rate for months after a spike. Authorities have also pressed analysts to avoid writing negative commentary and warned against using certain terms, including deflation.
与外国专家对话减少是随着与美国紧张局势升级而减少开放性的更广泛模式的一部分。中国越来越隐藏被认为对经济不利的数据，去年在青年失业率激增后数月才公布。当局还敦促分析师避免撰写负面评论，并警告不要使用某些术语，包括通货紧缩。

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For US officials, He’s close ties to China’s most-important man means Washington is at least confident it knows where the government in Beijing stands after speaking with the vice premier, according to a person familiar with such matters. Foreign executives see him as quick to action minor requests, said Victor Shih, who heads the 21st Century China Center think tank. But ultimately, “he’s someone who makes the vision of Xi Jinping into reality.”
对于美国官员来说，他与中国最重要人物的密切关系意味着华盛顿至少有信心在与副总理交谈后知道北京政府的立场，一位熟悉此类事务的人士表示。外国高管认为他对于执行次要请求迅速行动，21 世纪中国中心智库主任史伟表示。但最终，“他是一个能够将习近平的愿景变为现实的人。”

China’s No. 2 official, who traditionally oversees the economy, is also shifting gear. While Premier Li Qiang has maintained regular seminars with economists, those meetings have omitted the presence of experts affiliated with a foreign institution since he took office last year.
中国的第二号官员，传统上负责经济，也在转变。自李强总理去年上任以来，他一直与经济学家定期举行研讨会，但这些会议没有外国机构专家的参与。

In March, Li ended a 30-year tradition for the premier to hold an annual press conference. The removal of a rare opportunity to ask a top official policy questions sent a clear message: All eyes should be on Xi.
三月份，李结束了总理每年举行一次新闻发布会的 30 年传统。取消了向高级官员提问政策问题的难得机会，传递了一个明确的信息：所有人的目光应该集中在习身上。

Days later, state media published a sweeping 6,000-word profile trumpeting the Chinese leader as a pro-market reformer on par with Deng Xiaoping, who opened China’s economy to the world more than four decades ago. What role the top leader had in the destruction of the $100 billion tutoring sector or abrupt suspension of a would-be record initial public offering in 2021 were not mentioned.
几天后，官方媒体发表了一篇长达 6000 字的文章，大肆宣扬中国领导人是一个与邓小平齐名的亲市场改革者，邓小平在四十多年前开放了中国经济。关于最高领导人在摧毁价值 1000 亿美元的辅导行业或在 2021 年突然暂停一项可能创纪录的首次公开募股中扮演的角色并未提及。

If any official was tempted to question Xi, the consequences are even greater in his third term. At the last leadership reshuffle, the party enshrined a new slogan — the “Two Upholds” — into its constitution, making any deviation from the big boss cause for discipline. For reform-minded officials, there’s little incentive to leave a paper trail of their thinking.
如果有任何官员被诱惑质疑习近平，那么在他的第三个任期中后果将更为严重。在最后一次领导层调整中，党将一个新口号——“两个维护”——写入宪法，使任何偏离大领导的行为成为纪律处分的理由。对于有改革意识的官员来说，留下他们的思想轨迹并没有太多的激励。

“Investors and analysts now have nothing to go on beyond Xi Jinping speeches,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “But as the top leader rather than first-line manager, Xi will be speaking from a 30,000 feet perspective, rather than espousing policy specifics.”
“投资者和分析师现在除了习近平的讲话之外没有其他依据，”澳大利亚国立大学台湾研究项目的政治学家宋文迪说道。“但作为最高领导人而不是一线管理者，习近平将从 30,000 英尺的高度来演讲，而不是阐述具体政策。”