Markets Plummet as Tariff-War Woes Fuel Exodus From US Assets
市场暴跌，关税战忧虑引发美国资产外逃潮

Less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump backtracked on his once-in-a-century trade war to prevent a meltdown in financial markets, frantic selloffs hit US stocks, bonds and the dollar yet again as fears of a worldwide recession engulfed Wall Street.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普为阻止金融市场崩盘而暂缓发动百年一遇的贸易战不到 24 小时，随着对全球衰退的恐慌席卷华尔街，美国股市、债市和美元再度遭遇疯狂抛售。
标普 500 指数当日收跌 3.5%，投资者利用周三的历史性反弹逢高抛售。长期国债下挫，收益率在短暂喘息后再度飙升。美元连续第三日下跌，交易员纷纷抛售美元资产转投瑞士法郎等避险货币，后者创下十年来最大涨幅。与此同时，油价进一步下跌。

The S&P 500 Index ended the day down 3.5% as investors seized on Wednesday’s historic rebound to sell. Long-term Treasuries sank, sending yields soaring after a brief respite. The dollar tumbled for a third day as traders liquidated US assets in favor of haven currencies like the Swiss franc, which surged by the most in a decade. Meanwhile, oil prices fell further.
标普 500 指数当日收跌 3.5%，投资者利用周三的历史性反弹逢高抛售。长期国债下挫，收益率在短暂喘息后再度飙升。美元连续第三日下跌，交易员纷纷抛售美元资产转投瑞士法郎等避险货币，后者创下十年来最大涨幅。与此同时，油价进一步下跌。

In a measure of how volatile markets have become since Trump announced his plan to impose punitive tariffs on dozens of America’s trading partners, the S&P 500’s gyrations in the past two trading have rivaled those unleashed by the pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis.
自特朗普宣布计划对数十个美国贸易伙伴实施惩罚性关税以来，市场波动剧烈程度的一个衡量标准是：过去两个交易日中，标普 500 指数的震荡幅度堪比疫情和 2008 年金融危机期间的水平。

The moves, in the end, all pointed toward the same sobering conclusion: Trump’s chaotic tariff rollouts — regardless of where they eventually settle — is rapidly undermining confidence in the US economy and threatening to keep markets on edge for the next three months as traders wait to see how it will all play out.
这些市场动向最终都指向同一个令人警醒的结论：无论最终如何收场，特朗普混乱的关税政策正迅速削弱对美国经济的信心，并可能在接下来的三个月内持续让市场处于紧张状态，交易员们都在观望事态将如何发展。

“The reality of this being over quick and us returning to happy days quickly is very, very low,” said Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management. “This is the beginning of a monstrous bear market.”
“这种情况很快结束、我们迅速重返美好时光的可能性非常、非常低，”Smead Capital Management 的首席投资官 Bill Smead 表示。“这是一个巨大熊市的开始。”

That fear is indicative of how much sentiment has shifted less than three months into Trump’s second term, one that Wall Street once wagered would fuel the stock market’s bull run by slashing taxes, rolling back regulation and driving the economy’s growth.
这种恐惧反映出，在特朗普第二任期开始不到三个月的时间里，市场情绪已发生巨大转变。华尔街曾押注他的政策将通过减税、放松监管和推动经济增长来延续股市的牛市行情。

But those expectations have rapidly reversed as Trump moved to fire tens of thousands of employees, withheld federal aid and moved to single-handedly rewrite the rules of global trade in America’s favor.
但随着特朗普解雇数万名员工、扣留联邦援助并单方面改写全球贸易规则以利于美国，这些预期迅速逆转。

As much as the tariffs themselves, concerns have deepened because of the president’s approach — including on-and-off again rollouts, unusual formulas used to set them, an unorthodox objective, and his decision to keep escalating the conflict with China, which instead of being exempted from Wednesday’s reprieve was hit with another round of retaliation.
与关税本身相比，更令人担忧的是总统的做法——包括反复无常的实施方式、设定关税时采用的非传统公式、不合常规的目标，以及他决定不断升级与中国的冲突。中国不仅未能从周三的暂缓中豁免，反而遭到了新一轮的报复。

That’s made it difficult for Wall Street analysts to forecast how it will all play out, much less reckon what it will ultimately mean for the prices of stocks, bonds and commodities.
这使得华尔街分析师难以预测事态将如何发展，更不用说判断其对股票、债券和大宗商品价格的最终影响了。

Developing-Nation Status
发展中国家地位

“Even in emerging markets we have an idea what policies are,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer and founder of Bokeh Capital Partners. “But here in the US we can no longer do a fundamental analysis of some of the best companies.”
“即便在新兴市场，我们也对政策走向有所把握，”Bokeh 资本合伙公司首席投资官兼创始人 Kim Forrest 表示，“但在美国，我们已无法对一些最优质企业进行基本面分析。”

That’s erupted in six dizzying days of trading since Trump announced his latest tariffs in the White House Rose Garden. The initial shock unleashed deep stock selloffs that erased more than $10 trillion of value. It also strained bond markets from Tokyo and Australia to the UK and the US dumped government debt to raise cash.
自特朗普在白宫玫瑰园宣布最新关税以来，市场在六个交易日内经历了令人眩晕的动荡。最初的冲击引发了深度股票抛售，市值蒸发逾 10 万亿美元。从东京、澳大利亚到英国和美国的债券市场也承压，各国纷纷抛售政府债券以筹集现金。

In the US, the selloff sowed speculation that the Federal Reserve would need to step in and stabilize the market as yields kept marching higher, threatening to deal the economy another jolt by pushing up the cost of borrowing across the financial system. When that drove him to call off some of the steepest tariff hikes that had just kicked in for many countries, the 30-year Treasury yield slid as markets appeared to pull back from the brink.
在美国，抛售潮引发了市场猜测，认为美联储需要介入以稳定市场，因为收益率持续攀升，可能通过推高整个金融体系的借贷成本给经济带来又一次冲击。当他因此决定取消部分刚刚对多国生效的严厉关税上调措施时，30 年期国债收益率应声下跌，市场似乎从悬崖边缘撤回。

But in the background, the trade war is still threatening to break supply lines, cut cross-border trade and deliver another inflation shock to US consumers as imports grow more expensive. All of that has left Wall Street increasingly worried that the economy will stall.
但在幕后，贸易战仍在威胁着破坏供应链、削减跨境贸易，并随着进口商品价格上涨给美国消费者带来又一次通胀冲击。这一切都让华尔街越来越担心经济将陷入停滞。

“We will get a recession, because that is what the trade war will create,” Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates. “And he won’t back off unless we get to the brink of a depression. So equity markets are rationally pricing in a recession.”
“我们将迎来经济衰退，因为贸易战将导致这一结果，”Research Affiliates 股票策略首席投资官 Que Nguyen 表示。“除非经济濒临萧条，否则他不会退缩。因此，股市正在理性地消化经济衰退的预期。”

That view made relief short-lived. When stock markets reopened on Thursday, prices swooned sending the S&P 500 down more than 6% before it recovered part of the decline. The VIX — known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — fell by the most ever as stocks soared after Trump announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs. On Thursday, it has popped back above 40, a sign of increasing jitters in the market.
这种观点使得市场的宽慰转瞬即逝。周四股市重新开盘后，价格暴跌，标普 500 指数一度下跌超过 6%，随后收复部分失地。在特朗普宣布对部分关税实施 90 天暂停后，股市飙升，被称为华尔街“恐慌指标”的 VIX 指数创下最大跌幅。而周四，该指数又反弹至 40 以上，表明市场不安情绪加剧。

In the Treasuries market, long-dated debt tumbled again, even after the results new bond auctions over the last two days eased concerns about demand. But other worries have continued to drag on the market, including the risk of rising inflation, a pullback by overseas buyers, or a swelling US deficit if growth stalls.
在美国国债市场，长期债券再次下跌，尽管过去两天的新债券拍卖结果缓解了市场对需求的担忧。但其他担忧因素仍在拖累市场，包括通胀上升的风险、海外买家撤资，以及如果经济增长停滞可能导致美国赤字扩大。

“It’s hard to imagine the worst is behind us,” said Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at the TCW Group Inc. “Risk assets don’t like uncertainty and volatility. And that’s exactly what this administration is giving us.”
“很难想象最糟糕的时期已经过去，”TCW 集团全球利率联席主管杰米·帕顿表示，“风险资产不喜欢不确定性和波动性，而这正是本届政府给我们带来的。”