A Nasdaq Meltdown, Like China’s Big Tech in 2021?
纳斯达克崩溃，像 2021 年的中国大科技吗？
The US is risking a massive devaluation of growth stocks.
美国正面临大幅贬值成长股的风险。
The US is risking a massive devaluation of growth stocks.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
美国正面临大幅贬值成长股的风险。摄影师：Spencer Platt/Getty Images
After the Magnificent Seven’s 5% selloff Monday, global investors are reevaluating their faith in US exceptionalism. They’re asking whether the Nasdaq is just going through a minor correction, or if something way worse is in the works.
在“七大巨头”周一下跌 5%后，全球投资者正在重新评估他们对美国例外主义的信心。他们在问纳斯达克是否只是经历了一次小幅修正，还是有更糟糕的事情正在发生。
I worry that the US is at risk of entering a stage similar to what China experienced in 2021 — a massive devaluation of growth stocks. That year, the MSCI China Index lost as much as one-third of its value, as the government’s tech crackdowns slashed the earnings outlook and heightened investors’ sense of political risk. To put that in context, the Nasdaq 100 has tumbled 12% from its February high.
我担心美国面临进入一个类似于中国在 2021 年经历的阶段——大规模贬值的成长股。那一年，MSCI 中国指数损失了三分之一的价值，因为政府对科技行业的打压削弱了盈利前景，并加剧了投资者的政治风险感。为了更好地理解这一点，纳斯达克 100 指数自 2 月高点以来已经下跌了 12%。
“被迫的快乐”是一种痛苦的企业趋势These Tariffs Will Be Worse Than Markets Think
这些关税将比市场预期的更糟Musk’s Unpopularity Makes His Robotaxi Plan Even Harder
马斯克的不受欢迎使他的机器人出租车计划更加困难Once Again: Tariffs Are a Terrible Idea
再一次：关税是个糟糕的主意
Before calling me an alarmist, hear me out.
在称我为危言耸听者之前，请听我说。
Please, Don't Be Like China
请不要像中国一样
MSCI China lost as much as one-third of its value in 2021
MSCI 中国在 2021 年损失了高达三分之一的价值
Source: Bloomberg 来源：彭博社
First, the Magnificent Seven’s tech dominance is being structurally challenged. The arrival of DeepSeek in late January showed the world that China is more than a manufacturing powerhouse, and that little-known startups can achieve algorithmic efficiency, too. Since then, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. unveiled models that claim to rival DeepSeek’s, while AI agents that carry out more complex tasks on users’ behalf are coming to market.
首先，七大巨头的科技主导地位正面临结构性挑战。1 月底 DeepSeek 的出现向世界展示了中国不仅仅是一个制造业强国，而且一些鲜为人知的初创公司也能实现算法效率。自那时以来，阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司和腾讯控股有限公司推出了声称可以与 DeepSeek 竞争的模型，同时，能够代表用户执行更复杂任务的 AI 代理也开始进入市场。
These fast-moving industry events show that Chinese firms are making breakthroughs on software, till now America’s playground. For the next chapter in AI investing, even if people shift away from infrastructure plays like Nvidia Corp. to solutions providers, China’s disruptive threat remains.
这些快速发展的行业事件表明，中国公司在软件方面取得了突破，而这一直是美国的游乐场。在人工智能投资的下一个阶段，即使人们从像 Nvidia Corp.这样的基础设施投资转向解决方案提供商，中国的颠覆性威胁仍然存在。
The picture is even worse on the EV and smartphone front. Chinese companies are moving up the value chain, redefining what luxury means. Xiaomi Corp. recently released a $73,000 four-door sedan, its most premium model yet, in addition to a pricey $1,560 phone with advanced cameras. Meanwhile, BYD Co. happily tosses in software add-ons to its most basic EV models at no extra cost. As such, they are posing an uncomfortable new reality for big US names. Tesla Inc. and Apple Inc. have to fight harder for consumers’ wallets.
在电动车和智能手机领域，情况更糟。中国公司正在提升价值链，重新定义奢侈品的含义。小米公司最近推出了一款售价 73,000 美元的四门轿车，这是其迄今为止最顶级的车型，此外还有一款售价 1,560 美元、配备先进摄像头的昂贵手机。与此同时，比亚迪公司乐于在其最基本的电动车型号中免费添加软件附加功能。因此，他们为美国大牌公司带来了一个令人不安的新现实。特斯拉公司和苹果公司必须更加努力地争夺消费者的钱包。
Second, the risk premium is on the rise in the US. While the White House imposes tariffs and cuts federal jobs, President Donald Trump is changing his tone, refusing to rule out a recession while claiming that “you can’t really watch the stock market” when an economy is in transition. Last Friday, his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “there’s going to be a detox period” when the government moves away from fiscal largesse.
其次，美国的风险溢价正在上升。尽管白宫征收关税并削减联邦职位，特朗普总统却改变了口吻，拒绝排除经济衰退的可能性，同时声称“当经济处于过渡期时，你实际上无法关注股市”。上周五，他的财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示“当政府摆脱财政宽松时，将会有一个排毒期”。
These remarks remind me of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s attacks on the “disorderly expansion of capital” in 2021. It was a clear sign that equity routs would not stop Beijing from carrying out economic policies loathed by asset managers. Unfortunately, just like Xi back then, the so-called “Trump Put” — the notion that Washington would do whatever it takes to improve the market mood — may not be present either.
这些言论让我想起了中国国家主席Xi Jinping 在 2021 年对“资本无序扩张”的攻击。这清楚地表明，股市暴跌不会阻止北京实施资产管理者厌恶的经济政策。不幸的是，就像当时的Xi一样，所谓的“特朗普保护”——华盛顿会不惜一切代价改善市场情绪的观念——也可能不存在。
Third, buying the US is a very crowded trade. Since the Global Financial Crisis, foreigners have net purchased about $2 trillion of American stocks, according to Nomura Securities. A rising market has skyrocketed their total holdings to $17.6 trillion, eclipsing their ownership of US debt. As of June 2023, the latest data available, overseas investors owned a record 17% of US equities.
第三，购买美国股票是一项非常拥挤的交易。根据野村证券的数据，自全球金融危机以来，外国人净购买了约 2 万亿美元的美国股票。市场的上涨使他们的总持有量飙升至 17.6 万亿美元，超过了他们对美国债务的持有。截至 2023 年 6 月，最新的可用数据，海外投资者拥有创纪录的 17%的美国股票。
But fund managers were uneasy. Entering 2025, a whopping 89% said US equities were overvalued, the most since at least April 2001, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. So when strategists politely say US exceptionalism is on pause, foreigners might just head for the exit.
但基金经理们感到不安。根据美银美林的一项调查，进入 2025 年，足足有 89%的人表示美国股票被高估，这是自 2001 年 4 月以来的最高比例。因此，当策略师们礼貌地表示美国例外主义暂时停滞时，外国投资者可能会选择撤退。
The question of whether China is investable came up late 2021 after Beijing’s harsh tech crackdowns shaved trillions of dollars off foreign investors’ books. Will we see that complaint bubbling up again — toward the US this time?
关于中国是否值得投资的问题在 2021 年底出现，此时北京的严厉科技打压使外国投资者的账面损失了数万亿美元。这种抱怨会再次浮现出来——这次是针对美国吗？
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