Opportunities and Challenges of China's High-tech Development under the Encircling of the US: A Case in the Field of
作者 张红叶
Author: Zhang Hongye
摘要
summary
在全球经济一体化和技术迅猛发展的背景下，中国高科技产业的崛起引起了国际社会的广泛关注。美国作为世界科技的领先者，近年来加大了对中国高科技企业的压制力度，通过限制出口、实施高科技封锁等手段抑制中国科技的发展。中美科技竞争不仅是技术层面的较量，更涉及到经济、政治等多重因素。尽管面临外部打压，中国的高科技发展具备自身的内在优势和机遇，如庞大且日益增长的市场需求、中央及地方政府的政策支持以及通过“一带一路”等倡议扩大国际合作等。本文深入探讨了美国打压下中国高科技发展的机遇与挑战，分析了美国的压制手段、中国高科技发展的机遇以及面临的挑战与应对策略，旨在为中国高科技产业的未来发展提供参考依据。
In the context of global economic integration and rapid technological development, the rise of China's high-tech industry has attracted widespread attention from the international community. As the world's leader in science and technology, the United States has intensified its suppression of China's high-tech enterprises in recent years, and has curbed China's science and technology development by restricting exports and imposing a high-tech blockade. The competition between China and the United States in science and technology is not only a contest at the technical level, but also involves multiple factors such as economy and politics. Despite external pressures, China's high-tech development has its own inherent advantages and opportunities, such as huge and growing market demand, policy support from the central and local governments, and expanded international cooperation through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative. This paper deeply discusses the opportunities and challenges of China's high-tech development under the suppression of the United States, and analyzes the suppression methods of the United States, the opportunities, challenges and countermeasures of China's high-tech development, and aims to provide a reference for the future development of China's high-tech industry.
关键词
keyword
美国打压；中国高科技发展；机遇与挑战；技术创新；产业链安全；国际合作
U.S. repression; China's high-tech development; opportunities and challenges; technological innovation; industrial chain security; International cooperation
Introduction
中国高科技发展的背景在全球经济和技术竞争的格局中具有深远的意义。在全球经济一体化和科技迅猛发展的背景下，高科技产业成为国家竞争力的重要体现。中国作为一个快速发展中的国家，其在高科技领域的崛起既是国家科技实力的体现，也引起了国际社会的广泛关注。美国作为世界科技的领先者，一直以来在高科技领域保持着领导地位。然而，在近些年，中国的科技进步速度显著，这种局面被视为对美国科技霸权的一种挑战。因此，美国加大了对中国高科技企业的压制力度，通过限制出口、实施高科技封锁等手段抑制中国科技的发展[1][2]。
The background of China's high-tech development is of far-reaching significance in the pattern of global economic and technological competition. In the context of global economic integration and the rapid development of science and technology, the high-tech industry has become an important embodiment of national competitiveness. As a rapidly developing country, China's rise in the high-tech field is not only a reflection of the country's scientific and technological strength, but also has attracted widespread attention from the international community. As a world leader in science and technology, the United States has always maintained a leading position in the field of high technology. In recent years, however, China's technological progress has been remarkable, and this situation is seen as a challenge to US technological hegemony. As a result, the United States has intensified its suppression of China's high-tech enterprises, and inhibited the development of China's science and technology by restricting exports and imposing high-tech blockades[1][2].
中美科技竞争不仅是技术层面的较量，更涉及到经济、政治等多重因素。在特朗普政府时期，美国强化了对中国高科技企业的打压措施，特别是在“301调查”等单边行动中，通过将中国企业列入制裁实体清单来限制其国际市场准入[1]。这种策略一方面是为了保证美国高科技企业的竞争优势，另一方面也反映了零和博弈的战略思想。在这种背景下，中国高科技产业的发展面临严峻的外部压力，迫切需要通过加大自主研发力度和提升自主创新能力，以应对外部环境的不确定性[2]。
The competition between China and the United States in science and technology is not only a contest at the technical level, but also involves multiple factors such as economy and politics. During the Trump administration, the United States intensified its crackdown on Chinese high-tech companies, particularly in unilateral actions such as the Section 301 investigation, which restricted Chinese companies from accessing international markets by placing them on the sanctioned entity list[1].。 On the one hand, this strategy is to ensure the competitive advantage of American high-tech enterprises, and on the other hand, it also reflects the strategic thinking of a zero-sum game. In this context, the development of China's high-tech industry is facing severe external pressure, and it is urgent to cope with the uncertainty of the external environment by increasing independent research and development efforts and improving independent innovation capabilities [2].
尽管面临外部打压，中国的高科技发展具备自身的内在优势和机遇。一方面，庞大且日益增长的市场需求为中国的科技创新提供了广阔的应用场景和落地空间。另一方面，中央及地方政府在政策方面对科技产业的支持力度不断加大，从财政支持到人才引进政策，都为高科技产业的发展提供了强有力的支撑。此外，通过“一带一路”等倡议扩大国际合作，中国高科技企业也在积极寻求多元化的国际市场及合作伙伴，在应对全球市场变化中争取更大的发展空间。这不仅反映了中国高科技产业的韧性，也为未来的发展方向提供了重要参考依据。
Despite external repression, China's high-tech development has its own inherent advantages and opportunities. On the one hand, the huge and growing market demand provides a broad application scenario and landing space for China's scientific and technological innovation. On the other hand, the central and local governments have been increasing their support for the science and technology industry in terms of policies, from financial support to talent introduction policies, which have provided strong support for the development of the high-tech industry. In addition, through the "Belt and Road" and other initiatives to expand international cooperation, Chinese high-tech enterprises are also actively seeking diversified international markets and partners, in response to changes in the global market for greater development space. This not only reflects the resilience of China's high-tech industry, but also provides an important reference for the future development direction.
美国通过多种手段压制中国高科技的发展，形成了一套复杂且多层次的策略。首先，美国实施严苛的贸易限制与出口管制，限制关键技术产品与零部件的对华出口。这种措施不仅锁定了大批中国科技企业，同时也对中国的产业供应链构成了压力与挑战，使得中国企业在获取国际先进技术及相关产品时面临诸多阻碍[1]。另一个重要的压制手段是美国频繁更新并增加其制裁企业名录。该名录旨在通过设立“实体清单”将众多中国高科技企业列入禁运对象，特别是在半导体、通信设备等领域，对华为等公司实施直接打击[3]。
The United States has suppressed China's high-tech development through a variety of means, forming a complex and multi-layered strategy. First, the United States has imposed strict trade restrictions and export controls to restrict the export of key technology products and components to China. This measure not only locks down a large number of Chinese technology companies, but also poses pressure and challenges to China's industrial supply chain, making Chinese enterprises face many obstacles in accessing international advanced technologies and related products[1]. Another important means of repression is that the United States frequently updates and increases its list of sanctioned companies. The list aims to impose direct strikes on companies such as Huawei by establishing an "entity list" to target a large number of Chinese high-tech companies, especially in areas such as semiconductors and communications equipment[3].。
美国的科技压制政策不仅仅体现在经济领域的手段，更涉及深层次的技术封锁。通过施行一系列技术壁垒措施，美国力图将中国隔离在全球高科技网络之外。尤其是针对新兴技术领域的专利控制，美国不断增加对技术转让和合作的限制，妨碍中国企业的技术获取及国际合作[4]。
The U.S. policy of technological suppression is not only reflected in the means in the economic field, but also involves a deep technological blockade. By imposing a series of technical barriers, the United States seeks to isolate China from its global high-tech network. In particular, the United States has increased restrictions on technology transfer and cooperation in the field of emerging technologies, hindering Chinese companies' access to technology and international cooperation[4].
美国打压中国高科技发展的宏观背景中，研究这一主题的战略意义在于探索全球科技竞争中各国如何利用各种手段保持科技优势。分析这一现象可以深化我们对一国如何在全球政治经济格局中应对外部技术封锁的理解，从而制定更有效的科技发展和外交策略[5][6]。
In the macro context of the United States' suppression of China's high-tech development, the strategic significance of studying this theme is to explore how countries can use various means to maintain their technological superiority in the global scientific and technological competition. Analyzing this phenomenon can deepen our understanding of how a country responds to external technological blockades in the global political and economic landscape, leading to more effective scientific and technological development and diplomatic strategies[5][6].
从全球科技竞争的角度来看，美国对中国的科技打压不仅影响两国关系，也对全球科技生态系统的均衡发展产生了深远影响。因此，研究这一主题有助于更好地理解科技竞争如何影响国家间的合作与冲突，它不仅涉及技术层面的问题，还牵连到政治、经济以及文化等多重领域的复杂互动。这对各国制定科技政策和外交策略都具有重要的参考价值，有助于在多变的国际环境中寻求和扩大自己的战略优势[7][8]。
From the perspective of global technology competition, the U.S. crackdown on China's science and technology not only affects the relationship between the two countries, but also has a profound impact on the balanced development of the global technology ecosystem. Therefore, the study of this topic contributes to a better understanding of how technological competition affects cooperation and conflict between countries, not only in terms of technology, but also in complex interactions in the political, economic, and cultural spheres. This is an important reference for countries to formulate science and technology policies and diplomatic strategies, and is helpful to seek and expand their strategic advantages in the ever-changing international environment [7][8].
在国内层面，中国在应对这些挑战时，通过大力支持科技创新、加强与其他国家的科技合作等途径，不断提升自身的科研实力和产业能力。因此，深入探讨美国打压下中国高科技发展的机遇与挑战，不仅有助于理解当今国际科技竞争的实质，也为其他国家在类似情境下的策略选择提供了经验参考和理论支持[6][9]。
At the domestic level, in response to these challenges, China has continuously improved its scientific research and industrial capabilities by vigorously supporting scientific and technological innovation and strengthening scientific and technological cooperation with other countries. Therefore, an in-depth discussion of the opportunities and challenges of China's high-tech development under the suppression of the United States not only helps to understand the essence of today's international technology competition, but also provides empirical reference and theoretical support for other countries' strategic choices in similar situations[6][9] 。
美国对中国高科技产业的干预激发了一种复杂的创新环境。这无意中促使中国在技术自研和创新模式上的快速变革。在严格的美国监管下，高技术行业更多地依赖于内部自主创新能力，而非外部技术输入[10]。此类环境下，企业必须应对新的创新挑战，以维持竞争力。美国实施的政策虽然限制了直接的技术交流，却坚定了中国朝着独立创新的方向不断前行的决心[11]。随着中美技术摩擦的加剧，中国不得不寻求国产替代及本地技术突破，尤其是在芯片和人工智能等关键领域，以减少对美国技术的依赖[12]。这一转变不仅是应对美国政策的必要措施，同时也是推动中国科技实力提升的催化剂。尽管路径转型需要时间，然而长期来看，这有助于中国在全球科技竞争中占据更为主动的地位。
U.S. intervention in China's high-tech industry has sparked a complex environment for innovation. This has inadvertently prompted rapid changes in China's technology development and innovation model. Under strict U.S. regulation, the high-tech industry relies more on internal independent innovation capabilities than on external technology inputs [10]. In such an environment, companies must respond to new innovation challenges in order to remain competitive. Although the policies implemented by the United States have restricted direct technological exchanges, they have strengthened China's determination to continue to move forward in the direction of independent innovation [1, 1]. As the technological friction between China and the United States intensifies, China has to seek domestic substitution and local technological breakthroughs, especially in key areas such as chips and artificial intelligence, to reduce its dependence on American technology [12]. This shift is not only necessary to respond to U.S. policy, but also a catalyst for China's technological prowess. Although the transition will take time, in the long run, it will help China take a more active position in the global technology competition.
在现代化产业布局中，关键技术的缺失往往导致对外部供应链的过度依赖，例如芯片和核心零部件长期以来依赖进口，这不仅削弱了产业链的自主可控能力，也对国家安全构成潜在威胁[13]。因此，加强研发和自主创新能力成为实现产业链安全的必要步骤，通过提高自主技术比例和创新能力，增强抗风险能力，以应对外部压力及不可预见的国际变动。此外，通过政策支持，如鼓励技术企业之间的横向联合和纵向整合，可以实现技术资源的优化配置，提高产业链整体竞争力[14]。此举不仅能在重大技术突破上取得进展，也能在全球市场中提升竞争地位。鉴于此，产业政策需向支持内生技术发展和供应链安全倾斜，从增强自身科技实力的角度出发，在开放合作中建立以自身技术为核心的产业链生态[14]。
In the modern industrial layout, the lack of key technologies often leads to excessive dependence on external supply chains, such as the long-term dependence on imports of chips and core components, which not only weakens the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain, but also poses a potential threat to national security [13].。 Therefore, strengthening R&D and independent innovation capabilities has become a necessary step to achieve industrial chain security, and enhance the ability to resist risks by increasing the proportion of independent technologies and innovation capabilities to cope with external pressures and unforeseen international changes. In addition, through policy support, such as encouraging horizontal and vertical integration among technology enterprises, the optimal allocation of technological resources can be achieved and the overall competitiveness of the industrial chain can be improved [1, 4].。 This will not only enable progress on major technological breakthroughs, but also improve the competitive position in the global market. In view of this, industrial policies need to be tilted towards supporting endogenous technology development and supply chain security, and from the perspective of enhancing their own scientific and technological strength, they should establish an industrial chain ecology with their own technology as the core in open cooperation [1, 4].
在美国对中国高科技领域实施的贸易限制和出口管制中，可以观察到其策略的多样性和复杂性。这一策略的核心在于通过对关键技术产品的出口进行严格控制，从而限制中国高科技产业的快速发展[15]。这不仅包括对部分高科技产品的直接出口禁令，还涉及复杂的技术共享和合作限制。这一系列措施意在遏制中国在尖端技术领域的进步，同时保障美国在全球科技领域的主导地位[16]。这些出口管制政策还伴随着贸易摩擦的加剧，特别是在中美贸易关系紧张的背景下，更显得尤为突出。以华为事件为例，美国通过对该公司实施严格的零部件和软件销售禁令，直接削弱了其在国际市场上的竞争力[3]。这一限制不仅影响了企业的经营活动，也提高了中国高科技产业获取关键技术的难度，进而对整个行业的增长带来了负面影响。美国针对高科技产品的制裁措施显示了其对中国科技企业实力增长的警惕，同时也是对自身国家安全和经济利益的一种保护[16]。美国对中国高科技产业施加的压力在多个层面上产生了显著影响，尤其是在国际技术交流和供应链安全方面。受制于美国的出口管制，中国的高科技企业面临着核心技术和零部件的短缺难题。例如，美国对中兴和华为的制裁使这些公司在技术获取和市场拓展上举步维艰。中兴公司被限制从美国获得必要的电子零部件，迫使其业务运营受到严重阻碍[17]。华为同样面临在5G领域国际布局上的巨大挑战，因为美国试图通过外交压力限制其在多个国家的设备销售和技术合作[18]。中美之间的科技贸易摩擦对中国高科技企业的生产和创新造成了直接的负面影响[19]。这些措施不仅困扰了企业的发展，也挑战了中国在全球高科技产业中的竞争力。
The diversity and complexity of U.S. tactics can be observed in the trade restrictions and export controls imposed on China's high-tech sector. At the heart of this strategy is to limit the rapid development of China's high-tech industry by imposing strict controls on the export of key technology products [15]. This includes not only direct export bans on some high-tech products, but also complex restrictions on technology sharing and cooperation. This series of measures is intended to contain China's progress in cutting-edge technology while maintaining US dominance in the global technology sector[16].。 These export control policies are also accompanied by the intensification of trade frictions, especially in the context of trade tensions between China and the United States. In the case of Huawei, for example, the United States imposed a strict ban on the company's parts and software sales, which directly undermined its competitiveness in the international market[3].。 This restriction not only affects the business activities of enterprises, but also makes it more difficult for China's high-tech industry to obtain key technologies, which in turn has a negative impact on the growth of the entire industry. The U.S. sanctions on high-tech products show that it is wary of the growing power of China's technology companies, and at the same time protect its own national security and economic interests[16].。 U.S. pressure on China's high-tech industry has had a significant impact on multiple levels, particularly in international technology exchanges and supply chain security. Subject to U.S. export controls, China's high-tech companies are facing a shortage of core technologies and components. For example, U.S. sanctions on ZTE and Huawei have made it difficult for these companies to acquire technology and expand their markets. ZTE was restricted from obtaining essential electronic components from the United States, severely hampering its business operations [17]. Huawei also faces great challenges in its international deployment in the field of 5G, as the United States tries to restrict its equipment sales and technical cooperation in multiple countries through diplomatic pressure [18]. The technology trade friction between China and the United States has had a direct negative impact on the production and innovation of Chinese high-tech enterprises [19]. These measures not only plague the development of enterprises, but also challenge China's competitiveness in the global high-tech industry.
面对这种局面，中国高科技领域正在努力寻找突破口，以减轻出口管制带来的不利影响。一方面，这是一个推动自主研发的重要契机，通过加强自主创新来降低对外国技术的依赖[15]。与此同时，中国的高科技企业也在加大对市场需求的响应，以激励产品创新，提高国内产业的技术积累和产业链的自主可控性。中国政府通过政策引导和资金支持来刺激科技创新，试图建立自主可控的技术生态体系。许多企业开始增加在国内研发的投入，开展技术自研以减少对进口技术的依赖。同时，中国也积极寻求与其他国家在高科技领域的合作，以分散全球市场的压力和风险[17]。
Faced with this situation, China's high-tech sector is trying to find a breakthrough to mitigate the adverse effects of export controls. On the one hand, it is an important opportunity to promote independent research and development, and reduce dependence on foreign technology by strengthening independent innovation [15].。 At the same time, China's high-tech enterprises are also increasing their response to market demand to stimulate product innovation and improve the technological accumulation of domestic industries and the independent controllability of the industrial chain. The Chinese government stimulates scientific and technological innovation through policy guidance and financial support, and tries to establish an independent and controllable technology ecosystem. Many companies have begun to increase their investment in domestic R&D and carry out self-research to reduce their dependence on imported technology. At the same time, China is also actively seeking cooperation with other countries in the field of high technology to disperse the pressure and risks of the global market [17].
中国高科技企业通过开发智能客服系统、优化使用界面和提升交互体验，不断增强产品的用户黏性。这种服务创新已成为市场竞争的关键要素，与技术创新互为补充，共同支撑企业在激烈的市场竞争中脱颖而出。在此背景下，企业必须紧跟市场趋势，不断推陈出新，以维持并拓展市场份额[20]。
Chinese high-tech companies have continuously enhanced the user stickiness of their products by developing intelligent customer service systems, optimizing user interfaces and improving interactive experiences. This kind of service innovation has become a key element of market competition, complementing each other with technological innovation, and jointly supporting enterprises to stand out in the fierce market competition. Against this backdrop, companies must keep up with market trends and innovate in order to maintain and expand their market share[20].
全球科技竞争加剧使得中国高科技产业在美国的打压下寻求政策支持与国际合作的机会显得至关重要。尽管面对外部限制，中国依然有机会通过国际合作来增加技术创新动能。中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的科技合作不断深化，为技术转移和产能合作提供了新的空间。同时，通过参与全球科技治理及多边合作机制，中国希望能继续分享全球科技创新资源和成果。此外，通过与其他发展中国家和相对中立的地区建立技术合作伙伴关系，中国可以在技术研发和市场开拓方面寻求更广阔的国际空间。这种形式的多边合作不仅有助于技术能力的提升，也为掌握核心技术打下坚实的基础。
Intensified global technology competition has made it crucial for China's high-tech industry to seek policy support and international cooperation opportunities under US suppression. Despite external constraints, China still has the opportunity to increase the momentum of technological innovation through international cooperation. The deepening of scientific and technological cooperation between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" has provided new space for technology transfer and production capacity cooperation. At the same time, by participating in global science and technology governance and multilateral cooperation mechanisms, China hopes to continue to share global science and technology innovation resources and achievements. In addition, by establishing technological partnerships with other developing countries and relatively neutral regions, China can seek a broader international space in technology research and development and market development. This form of multilateral cooperation not only helps to improve technical capabilities, but also lays a solid foundation for mastering core technologies.
然而，国际合作的前景并非一帆风顺，美国及其盟友对中国科技企业的制约与打压仍在继续。他们通过各种手段限制技术转移和交流，企图孤立中国科技产业的发展环境[21][22]。然而，中国通过调整自身政策战略，特别是增进与其他创新国家和伙伴的合作，可能找到应对这些措施的路径。同时，中国还需要在国际规则和标准制定中争取更大的话语权，确保自身利益和合作的顺利推进[17]。这种双管齐下的策略，有望在美国的打压下，开拓更为广阔的国际合作机遇。
However, the prospects for international cooperation are not all smooth sailing, and the United States and its allies continue to restrict and suppress Chinese technology companies. They have used various means to restrict technology transfer and exchange in an attempt to isolate the development environment of China's technology industry [21][22]. However, China may find ways to respond to these measures by adjusting its policy strategy, especially by increasing cooperation with other innovative countries and partners. At the same time, China also needs to gain a greater say in the formulation of international rules and standards to ensure the smooth progress of its own interests and cooperation [17]. This two-pronged strategy is expected to open up broader opportunities for international cooperation under the pressure of the United States.
在全球供应链高度融合的现代经济体系中，中国的制造业供应链面临着显著的脆弱性，尤其是在当下中美贸易摩擦加剧的背景下。这一脆弱性主要体现在对外部进口原材料和技术的依赖程度，以及在关键技术领域自给自足能力的不足。例如，半导体产业因其核心技术和设备多数来自国外而成为美国制裁政策的直接目标[23]。此外，建立更为多元化的国际市场合作网络也是重要步骤，这不仅有助于减少贸易风险，还能增强中国制造业在全球市场中的弹性[24]。同时，提升国内制造企业的柔性生产能力和供应链管理水平，以应对外部环境的不确定性。这些措施综合起来，将能有效缓解中国制造业供应链在国际压力下的脆弱性。习近平总书记曾强调，要通过引领性技术创新占据全球科技竞争的战略主动[25]。其次，通过国家政策支持鼓励本土企业增加研发投入，推动高校和研究机构的基础研究，为关键技术的突破提供源源不断的动力。此外，还需构建以国内市场为核心的技术应用场景，加速科研成果的产业化，使技术发展与市场需求紧密结合，从而增强自身竞争力。
In a modern economic system with highly integrated global supply chains, China's manufacturing supply chain faces significant vulnerabilities, especially in the context of intensifying trade frictions between China and the United States. This vulnerability is mainly reflected in the degree of dependence on external imports of raw materials and technologies, as well as the lack of self-sufficiency in key technology areas. For example, the semiconductor industry has become a direct target of the U.S. sanctions policy because most of its core technologies and equipment come from abroad [23]. In addition, the establishment of a more diversified international market cooperation network is also an important step, which will not only help reduce trade risks, but also enhance the resilience of China's manufacturing industry in the global market[24].。 At the same time, improve the flexible production capacity and supply chain management level of domestic manufacturing enterprises to cope with the uncertainty of the external environment. Taken together, these measures will effectively alleviate the vulnerability of China's manufacturing supply chain to international pressures. General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized the need to take the strategic initiative in global scientific and technological competition through leading technological innovation [25].。 Secondly, through national policy support, local enterprises should be encouraged to increase R&D investment, promote basic research in universities and research institutions, and provide a steady stream of impetus for breakthroughs in key technologies. In addition, it is also necessary to build technology application scenarios with the domestic market as the core, accelerate the industrialization of scientific research achievements, and closely integrate technological development with market demand, so as to enhance its competitiveness.
进一步地，中国需要积极寻求国际合作，形成战略联盟。尽管美国试图通过“民主科技联盟”来限制中国的技术扩张，中国依然可以通过与其他国家的技术合作和人才交流，寻找技术合作的新路径。加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的合作，也为中国关键技术的全球推广和应用提供了新的动力和市场[26]。这种多重战略的综合应用，不仅有助于缓解外部技术封锁的影响，还能为中国在全球技术领域的崛起提供坚实的保障。
Furthermore, China needs to actively seek international cooperation and form strategic alliances. Although the United States has tried to limit China's technological expansion through the "Democratic Science and Technology Alliance", China can still find new ways of technical cooperation through technical cooperation and talent exchanges with other countries. Strengthening cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road has also provided new impetus and markets for the global promotion and application of China's key technologies [26].。 The comprehensive application of this multiple strategy will not only help alleviate the impact of external technology blockade, but also provide a solid guarantee for China's rise in the global technology field.
美国政府对中国科技人员及相关领域专家到美国进行学术交流、商业合作等活动实施严格限制，尤其在高科技领域，美国的政策甚至阻碍了中方优秀人才的国际流动，使得中国在获取全球最前沿技术动态和发展趋势上遇到了不小的挑战[27][28]。面对这种局面，中国需要采取多层次、多角度的策略来确保科技人才的自我培养和技术的自主保障。一方面，国内需要加强科技研发的基础设施建设，创造优良的科研环境，提高科研人员的待遇，以吸引并留住本国的高素质人才。此外，通过完善人才激励机制和提供更多的发展机会，可以刺激科技创新活力，加强对关键技术领域的保障能力。另一方面，加强与其他国家的科技合作与交流也是重要的方向，通过建立国际化的合作网络，可以在一定程度上减轻美国政策所带来的影响，缓解技术封锁带来的压力[28][29]。这些策略不仅能提升中国高科技产业链的韧性，还将为在国际竞争中保持创新优势提供强有力的支持[27][29]。
The U.S. government has imposed strict restrictions on Chinese scientific and technological personnel and experts in related fields to the United States for academic exchanges, business cooperation and other activities, especially in the high-tech field, and the U.S. policy has even hindered the international flow of Chinese talents, making it challenging for China to obtain the world's most cutting-edge technology trends and development trends[27][]. 28]。 In the face of this situation, China needs to adopt a multi-level and multi-angle strategy to ensure the self-cultivation of scientific and technological talents and the guarantee of technological autonomy. On the one hand, China needs to strengthen the construction of infrastructure for scientific and technological research and development, create an excellent scientific research environment, and improve the remuneration of scientific research personnel, so as to attract and retain high-quality talents in the country. In addition, by improving the talent incentive mechanism and providing more development opportunities, we can stimulate the vitality of scientific and technological innovation and strengthen the guarantee capacity in key technology fields. On the other hand, strengthening scientific and technological cooperation and exchanges with other countries is also an important direction, and through the establishment of an international cooperation network, the impact of US policies can be mitigated to a certain extent and the pressure caused by technological blockade can be alleviated [28][29]. ]。 These strategies will not only enhance the resilience of China's high-tech industry chain, but also provide strong support for maintaining an innovative advantage in international competition[27][29].。
Methodology and results
案例研究法在国家政策分析中的应用具有显著的优势和实用价值。作为一种定性研究方法，案例研究法关注现实世界中复杂、动态的背景下的具体实例，能够深入挖掘政策实施过程中的细节和影响力。通过案例研究，可以揭示隐含的政策意图、执行过程中的具体问题及其应对策略，有助于总结成功经验和失败教训。在国家政策分析中，案例研究法不仅贡献于理论探讨，还提供了实用的策略建议。通过对具体政策实施效果的剖析，可以帮助研究者和政策制定者识别潜在的问题和改进空间。在现代政策分析中，案例研究法的灵活性和深度分析能力使其成为理解和改善政策制定与实施的关键工具。
The application of the case study method in national policy analysis has significant advantages and practical value. As a qualitative research method, the case study method focuses on concrete examples in the complex and dynamic context of the real world, and can dig deep into the details and impact of the policy implementation process. Through case studies, the implicit policy intentions, specific problems in the implementation process and their coping strategies can be revealed, which can help to summarize the successful experiences and failures. In the analysis of national policies, the case study method not only contributes to theoretical discussions, but also provides practical strategic recommendations. Through the analysis of the implementation effects of specific policies, researchers and policymakers can help identify potential problems and room for improvement. In modern policy analysis, the flexibility and in-depth analytical capabilities of the case study method make it a key tool for understanding and improving policy formulation and implementation.
定量分析和模拟预测方法在研究美国对中国高科技发展施压中的作用尤为重要。首先，定量分析可以通过收集并处理大量数据，为研究者提供直观的数值结果。通过测算美国出口管制强度等变量与中国企业创新的关系，研究者可以利用双重差分法有效应对内生性问题，分析政策对企业创新的真实影响。双重差分法能够清晰地呈现政策变化前后的差异，这为了解美国对华高科技出口管制的潜在效应提供了坚实的基础理论支持。通过这类计量方法的应用，研究者可以更好地识别政策冲击对局部地区或特定行业的影响力，并基于此提供具有针对性的政策建议[30]。就美国对中国的技术制裁而言，预测模型能够帮助定义并评估中国高科技部门在国际市场上的多种发展路径。此类模型通常需要整合多方面的数据，包括政策变动、经济指标、以及产业动向，通过复杂的数学运算得出可能的发展趋势。这一过程不仅有助于理解当前环境下政策的即时影响，还能够为未来的战略布局提供前瞻性的视角，指导决策者制定适应性更强的战略应对措施[1]。
Quantitative analysis and simulation methods are particularly important in studying the role of the United States in exerting pressure on China's high-tech development. First, quantitative analysis can provide researchers with intuitive numerical results by collecting and processing large amounts of data. By measuring the relationship between variables such as the intensity of U.S. export controls and Chinese firm innovation, researchers can use the difference-in-difference method to effectively deal with endogenous problems and analyze the real impact of policies on firm innovation. The difference-in-difference method can clearly show the differences before and after the policy change, which provides a solid basic theoretical support for understanding the potential effects of U.S. high-tech export controls on China. Through the application of such measurement methods, researchers can better identify the impact of policy shocks on local regions or specific industries, and provide targeted policy recommendations based on them [30].。 In the case of U.S. technology sanctions against China, forecasting models can help define and assess the multiple paths of China's high-tech sector in international markets. Such models often need to integrate data from a variety of sources, including policy changes, economic indicators, and industry trends, to derive possible trends through complex mathematical operations. This process not only helps to understand the immediate impact of policies in the current environment, but also provides a forward-looking perspective for future strategic layouts and guides policymakers to develop more adaptable strategic responses [1].
半导体行业是其中最为明显的例子。美国对中国实行技术出口管制，通过限制尖端技术和设备的出口，意图切断中国在半导体领域的供应链。这直接影响了中国半导体企业的海外采购，而中国本土企业则通过政策激励和国内需求驱动，逐步加强对国产化技术的研发和应用。然而，长远来看，全球半导体产业可能面临割裂的威胁，这不仅对中国，对美国的龙头企业也是一种挑战[19]。
The semiconductor industry is the most obvious example of this. The U.S. imposes technology export controls on China in an attempt to cut off China's supply chain in the semiconductor sector by restricting the export of cutting-edge technology and equipment. This has directly affected the overseas procurement of Chinese semiconductor companies, while Chinese local enterprises have gradually strengthened the research and development and application of localized technologies through policy incentives and domestic demand. However, in the long run, the global semiconductor industry may face the threat of fragmentation, which is a challenge not only for China, but also for leading companies in the United States [19].
再看以光伏产业为代表的绿色科技行业，美国的贸易摩擦措施在一定程度上刺激了中国企业加速技术创新和市场多样化策略的发展。由于光伏产业在技术改进和成本控制上都有较强的内生动力，企业通过自主研发和扩大在新兴市场的投资，逐渐减少对美国市场的依赖。虽然贸易摩擦增加了运营成本，但也推动了产业的品牌多样化和技术进步，从而使得中国在全球光伏市场上仍保持竞争优势[17][31]。这种差异化的冲击与应对策略，展现出中国高科技行业在外部挑战下的多样性和韧性。
Looking at the green technology industry represented by the photovoltaic industry, the trade friction measures of the United States have stimulated the development of Chinese enterprises to accelerate technological innovation and market diversification strategies to a certain extent. As the photovoltaic industry has a strong endogenous driving force in technological improvement and cost control, enterprises are gradually reducing their dependence on the US market through independent research and development and expanding investment in emerging markets. Although trade frictions have increased operating costs, they have also promoted brand diversification and technological progress in the industry, thus allowing China to maintain a competitive advantage in the global PV market [17][31]. This differentiated impact and response strategy demonstrates the diversity and resilience of China's high-tech industry in the face of external challenges.
Analysis and Discussion
新兴技术领域的潜在发展方向在全球技术竞争中具备重要战略意义。首先，人工智能作为数字经济时代的核心引擎，不仅在自动化、数据分析等领域展现出强大潜力，还在智能制造、机器人等行业中提供变革性解决方案。而在量子计算领域，尽管尚处于探索阶段，其具有的超强计算能力将可能颠覆现有的信息处理方式，改变各国在技术领域的力量对比。区块链技术则在数据安全、去中心化交易等方面展示出革新潜能，推动各国企业积极探索其在金融、供应链等领域的应用。国家间对新兴技术的投入及研究方向显示出对此领域的高度重视及长远战略布局。随着这些技术的不断成熟，其在推动社会经济变革、促进全球产业重塑方面将发挥更加显著的作用[32]。
The potential development direction of the emerging technology field is of great strategic importance in the global technology competition. First of all, as the core engine of the digital economy era, artificial intelligence not only shows strong potential in automation, data analysis and other fields, but also provides transformative solutions in intelligent manufacturing, robotics and other industries. In the field of quantum computing, although it is still in the exploratory stage, its superior computing power may subvert the existing way of processing information and change the balance of power in the field of technology among countries. Blockchain technology has shown innovation potential in data security and decentralized transactions, and has encouraged enterprises from all over the world to actively explore its application in finance, supply chain and other fields. The investment and research direction of emerging technologies among countries show that they attach great importance to this field and have a long-term strategic layout. As these technologies continue to mature, they will play a more significant role in driving socio-economic change and promoting global industrial reshaping [32].
投资新兴技术研发没有止境，各国通过实施不同的政策策略，以期在下一轮技术革命中占据更大的市场份额和技术影响力。美国、中国和欧盟等主要经济体在新兴技术研发中投入巨资，同时构建包括人才培养、企业扶持及市场规范在内的全方位支持体系。在这一过程中，鼓励跨国企业间的合作与竞争，尤其是在技术标准制定及专利共享方面，是塑造未来科技生态系统的重要手段。虽然这些国家在全球的科技布局中各有侧重，但它们都认识到只有通过推动合作、增进信任以及加强对话，才能在技术变革带来的不确定性中寻求稳定和发展。因此，各国需在政策制定中平衡技术创新与安全监管，以构建一个开放、共赢的科技发展环境[32]。
There is no end to investing in R&D in emerging technologies, and countries are implementing different policy strategies to capture a larger market share and technological influence in the next round of technological revolution. Major economies such as the United States, China, and the European Union have invested heavily in research and development of emerging technologies, while building a comprehensive support system that includes talent development, enterprise support, and market regulation. In this process, encouraging cooperation and competition among multinational companies, especially in the development of technical standards and patent sharing, is an important means to shape the future technology ecosystem. Although these countries have different priorities in the global landscape of science and technology, they all recognize that only by promoting cooperation, enhancing trust and strengthening dialogue can they seek stability and development in the uncertainty brought about by technological change. Therefore, countries need to balance technological innovation and safety regulation in policy-making to build an open and win-win environment for scientific and technological development [32].
首先，应加强数字经济在高科技产业中的应用，利用其提高产业效率和创新能力的潜力。这不仅有助于改变传统产业链的布局，还能提高资源配置的效率[33]。通过推动各行业的数字化转型，中国可以更有效地抵御外部压力，同时在创新领域打开新的空间。
First, the application of the digital economy in high-tech industries should be strengthened, and its potential to improve industrial efficiency and innovation capabilities should be harnessed. This will not only help to change the layout of the traditional industrial chain, but also improve the efficiency of resource allocation [33]. By driving the digital transformation of various industries, China can more effectively resist external pressures while opening up new spaces in the field of innovation.
在高新技术自主创新方面，中国需要在国家层面上提供更有效的支持政策。这包括加大科研资金投入、优化科研环境以及加强国际科技合作。虽然中国在自主创新能力的构建上已取得一定的进展，但仍需从美欧等科技强国的经验中汲取教训[34]。通过提高政策的针对性和适应性，中国可以在技术受制于外的局势下保持科技发展的持续动力，还可借此提升自身在国际高科技领域的竞争力。创新政策的调整，应覆盖到人才培养、科技成果转化等多个方面，确保国家在全球科技竞争中稳步向前。
In terms of high-tech independent innovation, China needs to provide more effective support policies at the national level. This includes increasing investment in scientific research, optimizing the scientific research environment, and strengthening international scientific and technological cooperation. Although China has made some progress in building its independent innovation capabilities, it still needs to learn from the experience of scientific and technological powers such as the United States and Europe [34].。 By improving the pertinence and adaptability of policies, China can maintain the continuous momentum of scientific and technological development in a situation where technology is constrained by foreign countries, and can also enhance its competitiveness in the international high-tech field. The adjustment of innovation policies should cover many aspects such as talent training and the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, so as to ensure that the country moves forward steadily in the global competition in science and technology.
在国际合作方面，中国可以通过一带一路倡议和其他多边合作机制来寻求新的合作伙伴。这些合作不仅能够拓展市场，还可以形成技术上的互补和协同效应。中国应积极参与全球性的科研项目和技术标准的制定，通过开放合作来增强创新能力。这种合作模式能帮助中国缩小与发达国家在科技水平上的差距，并在特定技术领域建立领先地位。此外，与新兴市场国家的技术合作也为中国带来了契机，通过互利共赢的合作，加强在全球科技生态中的话语权。
In terms of international cooperation, China can seek new partners through the Belt and Road Initiative and other multilateral cooperation mechanisms. These collaborations can not only expand the market, but also form technological complementarities and synergies. China should actively participate in global scientific research projects and the formulation of technical standards, and enhance its innovation capacity through open cooperation. This model of cooperation can help China narrow the gap in science and technology with developed countries and establish a leading position in specific technological fields. In addition, technical cooperation with emerging market countries also brings opportunities for China to strengthen its voice in the global technology ecosystem through mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation.
Conclusion
面对这些挑战，中国的策略应包括继续深化改革开放、优化产业链布局，以及提升科研院所和企业的协同创新能力。此外，加强与其他国家在政策和规则制定上的沟通协调，通过国际组织争取更为有利的创新环境，以此缓解外部政策不确定性对产业发展的负面影响。这样的应对策略将为中国高科技行业的长期健康发展提供保障。
In the face of these challenges, China's strategy should include continuing to deepen reform and opening up, optimizing the layout of the industrial chain, and enhancing the collaborative innovation capabilities of research institutes and enterprises. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen communication and coordination with other countries in policy and rule-making, and strive for a more favorable innovation environment through international organizations, so as to alleviate the negative impact of external policy uncertainty on industrial development. Such a response strategy will provide a guarantee for the long-term healthy development of China's high-tech industry.
参考文献
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