阈值测度与优选预测:青少年羽毛球运动员体能敏感指标研究 Threshold measurement and preferential prediction: a study of physical fitness sensitivity indicators in junior badminton players
李彦丽^(1){ }^{1},夏娇阳^(2**){ }^{2 *},尤洋^(2){ }^{2} Li Yanli ^(1){ }^{1} , Xia Jiao Yang ^(2**){ }^{2 *} , You Yang ^(2){ }^{2} .(1.中国石油大学(华东)研究生院,山东 青岛 266580; (1. Graduate School, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China;2.中国石油大学(华东)体育教学部,山东 青岛 266580) 2. Department of Physical Education, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580)
抽象 abstraction
摘 要:体能作为羽毛球项目获得主动及赢取胜利的重要保障,借助 ROC 曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic curve)法建立青少年羽毛球运动员体能敏感指标阈值,设定正确的体能目标值,对于评估训练效果和运动员进步的基准具有重要意义。通过分析2022—2024年全国U系列羽毛球比赛 U12—U14 运动员的体能测试数据和羽毛球国少队优选结果,结果表明:1)筛选后的体能敏感指标阈值能够区分国少队优选结果(P < 0.05P<0.05),男运动员符合体能敏感指标阈值要求的优选成功率是未达到体能敏感指标阈值要求的 2.4-4.8 倍(OR=2.456∼4.885\mathrm{OR}=2.456 \sim 4.885),女运动员2.6-8.62.6-8.6倍(OR=2.674∼8.690\mathrm{OR}=2.674 \sim 8.690);2)体能敏感指标阈值可以区分不同指标对不同年龄运动员的影响程度,且体能敏感指标阈值随年龄增长呈现逐步提升的趋势。不仅揭示了青少年羽毛球运动员体能素质发展的敏感指标,也为制定个性化的训练计划和优化训练效率提供了有力的数据支持,对羽毛球项目的体能训练具有重要的实践指导意义。 Abstract: Physical fitness is an important guarantee for badminton program to get the initiative and win the victory, with the help of ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve) method to establish the threshold of physical fitness sensitive indexes of young badminton players and set the correct target value of physical fitness, which is of great significance for assessing the training effect and the benchmark of athletes' progress. By analyzing the fitness test data of U12-U14 athletes in the national U-series badminton tournaments from 2022-2024 and the results of the badminton national junior team preference, the results show that: 1) the screened fitness-sensitive indicator thresholds are able to differentiate between the results of the national junior team preference ( P < 0.05P<0.05 ), and the male athletes who meet the requirements of fitness-sensitive The results showed that: 1) the screening physical sensitivity index thresholds could distinguish the results of the national junior team (P < 0.05P<0.05 ), and the success rate of male athletes meeting the physical sensitivity index thresholds was 2.4-4.8 times higher than that of male athletes failing to meet the physical sensitivity index thresholds ( OR=2.456∼4.885\mathrm{OR}=2.456 \sim 4.885 ), and the success rate of female athletes was 2.6-8.62.6-8.6 times higher than that of male athletes ( OR=2.674∼8.690\mathrm{OR}=2.674 \sim 8.690 ). The thresholds of physical sensitivity indicators can distinguish the degree of influence of different indicators on different age athletes, and the thresholds of physical sensitivity indicators show a trend of gradual increase with age. It not only reveals the sensitive indicators of physical fitness development of young badminton players, but also provides powerful data support for the development of personalized training plan and optimization of training efficiency, which is of great practical significance for the physical fitness training of badminton program. Abstract: Physical fitness is an important guarantee for badminton program to get the initiative and win, with the help of ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve) method to establish the threshold of physical fitness sensitive indexes for young badminton players, and set the correct target value of physical fitness, which is of great significance for evaluating the training effect and the benchmarks of athletes' progress. By analyzing the fitness test data of U12-U14 athletes in the national U-series badminton tournaments from 2022-2024 and the results of the badminton national junior team preference, the results show that: 1) the screened fitness-sensitive indicator thresholds are able to differentiate between the results of the national junior team preference ( P < 0.05P<0.05 ), and the male athletes who meet the requirements of fitness-sensitive The results showed that: 1) the screening physical sensitivity index thresholds could distinguish the results of the national junior team (P < 0.05P<0.05 ), and the success rate of male athletes meeting the physical sensitivity index thresholds was 2.4-4.8 times higher than that of male athletes failing to meet the physical sensitivity index thresholds ( OR=2.456∼4.885\mathrm{OR}=2.456 \sim 4.885 ), and the success rate of female athletes was 2.6-8.62.6-8.6 times higher than that of male athletes ( OR=2.674∼8.690\mathrm{OR}=2.674 \sim 8.690 ). and the thresholds of physical sensitivity indicators showed a trend of gradual increase with age. It not only reveals the sensitive indicators of physical fitness development of young badminton players, but also provides a powerful data support for the development of personalized training plan and optimization of training efficiency, which is of great practical significance for the physical fitness training of badminton program.
关键词:阈值;青少年羽毛球运动员;体能敏感指标;ROC 曲线 中图分类号:G847 Keywords: threshold; junior badminton players; fitness sensitivity index; ROC curve CCTI: G847 阈值测量与最优预测:青少年羽毛球运动员体能敏感指标研究 Threshold Measurement and Optimal Prediction: a Study on Physical Fitness Sensitive Indicators of Adolescent Badminton Athletes 李艳丽 Threshold measurement and optimal prediction: a study of physical fitness sensitivity indicators in junior badminton players Yanli Li^(1){ }^{1},夏娇阳^(2**){ }^{2 *},尤阳^(2){ }^{2} Threshold Measurement and Optimal Prediction: A Study on Sensitive Indicators of Physical Fitness in Young Badminton Players Yanli Li ^(1){ }^{1} , Jiao Yang Xia ^(2**){ }^{2 *} , Yang You ^(2){ }^{2} . (1.毕业于中国石油大学(华东)学院,山东 青岛 266580; (1. Graduate of School, China university of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China;2.中国石油大学体育系,山东 青岛 266580) (1. Graduated from the College of China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580; 2. Department of Physical Education, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580)
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体能是获得主动权和确保羽毛球胜利的重要基础。使用 ROC 曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristics curve)方法建立青少年羽毛球运动员敏感体能指标的阈值,并设定准确的体能目标值,对于评估训练效果和对标运动员具有重要意义 progress.By 分析 U12-U14 运动员的体能测试数据2022-2024 年全国 U 系列羽毛球比赛和国家青少年羽毛球队选拔结果显示,结果表明:1)筛选敏感体能指标的阈值可以区分国家青少年羽毛球队的选拔结果(P < 0.05P<0.05).男运动员达到敏感阈值要求的成功率 Physical fitness is an important foundation for gaining the initiative and ensuring victory in badminton. Using the ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristics curve) method to establish the thresholds of sensitive physical fitness indicators for junior badminton players and set accurate physical fitness target values is important for evaluating the training effect and benchmarking the athletes progress.By analyzing the physical fitness of U12-U14 athletes Test data 2022-2024 national U series badminton tournaments and national junior badminton team selection results show that the results show that: 1) Screening the threshold of sensitive physical fitness indicators can distinguish the results of the selection of the national junior badminton team ( P < 0.05P<0.05 ) . The success rate of male athletes in meeting the requirements of sensitive thresholds
投稿日期:2024-11-11 Submission Date: 2024-11-11
基金项目:国家社会科学基金"十四五"规划2022年度教育学一般课题"幼小儿童身体能力发育模型构建与共育路径研究"(项目编号:BLA220239)。 Supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China under the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" of the year 2022, "Research on the Construction of Physical Ability Development Model and Co-education Path for Young Children" (Project No. BLA220239).
作者简介:李彦丽(2001—),女,山东淄博人,在读硕士研究生,研究方向专项教学理论与方法。 Author's introduction: Li Yanli (2001-), female, Zibo, Shandong, a master's degree student, research direction special teaching theory and method. 作者单位:1.中国石油大学(华东)研究生院,山东 青岛 266580;2.中国石油大学(华东)体育教学部,山东 青岛 266580 Author Introduction: Li Yanli (2001-), female, Zibo, Shandong, a master's degree student, research direction special teaching theory and method. Author Affiliations: 1. Graduate School of China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong; 2. Physical Education Department of China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong. 体能指标比做的人高2.4-4.8倍 Physical fitness indicators are 2.4-4.8 times higher than those who donot(OR=2.4564.885)\operatorname{not}(\mathrm{OR}=2.4564 .885),而对于女运动员来说,它高出 2.6-8.6 倍 (OR=2.6748.690\mathrm{OR}=2.6748 .690);2)敏感体能指标的阈值可以区分不同指标对不同年龄运动员的影响程度,并且这些阈值随年龄的增长而逐渐增加。研究结果不仅揭示了青少年羽毛球运动员体能发展的敏感指标,而且为制定个性化训练计划、优化训练效率提供了有力的数据支持,对羽毛球体能训练具有重要的现实意义。 The physical fitness index is 2.4-4.8 times higher than those who do not(OR=2.4564.885)\operatorname{not}(\mathrm{OR}=2.4564 .885) , and for female athletes, it is 2.6-8.6 times higher ( OR=2.6748.690\mathrm{OR}=2.6748 .690 ); 2) The thresholds of sensitive physical fitness indexes can differentiate the degree of influence of different indexes on athletes of different ages and these thresholds are gradually increasing with the growth of age. The results of the study not only revealed the sensitive indicators of physical fitness development of young badminton players, but also provided powerful data support for the development of personalized training plan and optimization of training efficiency, which is of great practical significance for badminton physical training.
2020 年 2 月国家体育总局印发《体育总局办公厅关于进一步强化基础体能训练恶补体能短板的通知》(以下称《通知》)和《国家队体能达标测试评分标准》(以下称《标准》))^([1]))^{[1]}。有研究表明,《标准》对所有参与测试的运动员进行全面评估,但未能充分考量不同运动项目间的差异性以及运动员性别的特异性,部分测试项目不符合运动项目的自身特点,测试项目的评价标准也存在过高或过低的现象^([2]){ }^{[2]}。 In February 2020, the General Administration of Sport issued the Notice of the General Office of the General Administration of Sport on Further Strengthening the Basic Physical Training and Mending the Short Board of Physical Fitness (hereinafter referred to as the Notice) and the Scoring Standards for Physical Fitness Achievement Tests for National Teams (hereinafter referred to as the Standards) )^([1]))^{[1]} . Some studies have shown that the Standards provide a comprehensive assessment of all athletes participating in the test, but fail to fully take into account the differences between different sports and the gender specificity of athletes, and that some of the test items are not in line with the characteristics of the sports themselves, and that the evaluation standards of the test items are either too high or too low ^([2]){ }^{[2]} .
羽毛球项目属于技能主导类隔网对抗项群,其主要运动形式是运用各种技术动作和战术变化突破对手的防守而得分,体能是获得主动及赢取胜利的重要保障^([3]){ }^{[3]}。体能与技能是相辅相成的,它们相互统一在"能量"二字上:练体能是储备能量,练技能是节省能量,运动水平的高低取决于上述两方面综合能量的高低^([4]){ }^{[4]}。不同体能素质可能会产生干扰效应,力量和有氧耐力同时训练对肌肉力量的发展有干扰效应^([5]){ }^{[5]},运动员难以在所有体能素质上都达到很高的水平,因此确立一个适宜的体能发展目标,协助运动员在多维度体能素质间达成均衡进步,从而优化训练效率,促进整体运动表现的提升。羽毛球运动的快速发展,使羽毛球竞技比赛对运动员的体能提出了更高的要求^([5-9]){ }^{[5-9]}。国家少年羽毛球队(以下称国少队)是中国羽毛球协会与地方政府或相关机构合作共建的,旨在培养国家青少年羽毛球后备人才的重要团体。国少队作为球员走向国家队的第一层阶梯,是开启其国家队生涯系统化培养与高水平竞技平台接触的初步尝试,其选拔标准是全国 U 系列羽毛球比赛 U12—U14 单打比赛前 16 名的运动员以及双打前 4名的运动员。从体能视角下,深入探索入选国少队运动员与未入选运动员之间体能部分的差异,为后续的职业生涯发展奠定坚实基础。 Badminton is a skill-driven category of net confrontation item group, its main form of movement is to use a variety of technical movements and tactical changes to break through the opponent's defense and score points, physical fitness is an important guarantee to get the initiative and win the victory ^([3]){ }^{[3]} . Physical fitness and skills are complementary to each other, and they are unified in the word "energy": practicing physical fitness is to reserve energy, practicing skills is to save energy, and the level of the sport depends on the level of the combined energy of the above two aspects ^([4]){ }^{[4]} . Different physical fitness qualities may produce interference effects, strength and aerobic endurance training at the same time on the development of muscular strength has interference effects ^([5]){ }^{[5]} , athletes are difficult to achieve a high level of all physical fitness qualities, so to establish a suitable physical fitness development goals, to help athletes in the multi-dimensional physical fitness qualities to achieve a balanced progress, so as to optimize the efficiency of the training, and to promote the overall performance of the sport. The rapid development of badminton has led to higher demands on athletes' fitness in competitive badminton ^([5-9]){ }^{[5-9]} . The National Junior Badminton Team (hereinafter referred to as the National Junior Team) is an important group aimed at cultivating national junior badminton reserves, which is built by the China Badminton Association in cooperation with local governments or related organizations. The National Junior Team, as the first ladder for players to go to the national team, is an initial attempt to start the systematic cultivation of their national team careers and contact with high-level competitive platforms, and its selection criteria are the athletes who are in the top 16 of the singles competitions of the national U series of badminton tournaments U12-U14, as well as those who are in the top 4 of the doubles competitions. From the perspective of physical fitness, the differences in physical fitness between the selected athletes and the non-selected athletes were explored in depth, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent career development.
青少年时期是各项素质发展的关键阶段^([10][11]){ }^{[10][11]},同时青少年的身体素质发展存在特定的敏感期,且不同身体素质的敏感期存在差异。身体素质发展"敏感期"是能够取得最佳训练效果的时期^([12]){ }^{[12]}。Balyi(2005)提出的 LTAD 模式(Long-term Athlete Develo-opment Model)中指出正式训练阶段(男生 12-16 岁,女生 11-15 岁)是对刺激和训练产生生理反应的阶段,因此要把握敏感时期从而提升训练适应^([13][15]){ }^{[13][15]}。Lloyd 强调该阶段为发育高峰期,应把握好发展运动素质的时机窗口,一个 12 到 13 岁的孩子应该把他们的训练主要集中在力量,爆发力,速度,敏捷性和运动专项技能的发展上^([16]){ }^{[16]}。 Adolescence is a critical stage for the development of various qualities ^([10][11]){ }^{[10][11]} , and there are specific sensitive periods for the development of physical fitness in adolescents, which vary from one fitness level to another. The "sensitive period" of physical development is the period in which the best training results can be achieved ^([12]){ }^{[12]} . The LTAD model (Long-term Athlete Development Model) proposed by Balyi (2005) points out that the formal training phase (12-16 years old for boys and 11-15 years old for girls) is the most important period of training for the adolescents. Lloyd emphasizes that this is the peak developmental period and that there is a window of opportunity to develop athletic qualities. A 12- to 13-year-old should focus his or her training on the development of strength, explosiveness, speed, agility, and sport-specific skills ^([13][15]){ }^{[13][15]}
目前针对青少年羽毛球运动员体能敏感指标的研究尚显不足,特别是在运用科学方法进行指标篮选和评估方面。因此,本研究旨在通过 ROC 曲线法,探索青少年羽毛球运动员的体能标准,在多维度体能素质间筛选出使运动员均衡进步的敏感指标,以此为基础更准确地评估运动员的体能水平,预测其未来发展趋势。为运动员制定个性化的训练计划提供有力的支持,对我国羽毛球项目及其他球类项目的体能训练提供科学的参考依据。 Currently, there are insufficient studies on the sensitive indicators of physical fitness of young badminton players, especially in the use of scientific methods for indicator basket selection and assessment. Therefore, this study aims to explore the physical fitness standard of young badminton players through the ROC curve method, to screen out the sensitive indicators of balanced progress among multi-dimensional physical fitness qualities, and to more accurately assess the physical fitness level of athletes and predict the future development trend on the basis of the ROC curve method. This will provide a strong support for athletes to make personalized training plans, and provide a scientific reference basis for the physical training of badminton and other ball sports in China.
1 研究对象与方法 1 Objects and methods of study
1.1 研究对象 1.1 Subject of the study
以构建青少年羽毛球运动员体能敏感指标阈值为研究对象,依据青少年羽毛球运动员体能敏感指标阈值预测国少队优选资格的诊断评估。选取2022—2024年参加全国U系列羽毛球比 To construct the thresholds of physical fitness sensitivity indexes of junior badminton players as the research object, and to predict the diagnostic assessment of the preferential qualification of the national junior team based on the thresholds of physical fitness sensitivity indexes of junior badminton players. Selected to participate in the national U series badminton competition in 2022-2024
赛 U12-U14 综合素质测试的所有运动员为调查对象,共 1241 名运动员纳入本研究,其中男运动员 657 名,女运动员 584 名。 A total of 1241 athletes were included in this study, including 657 male athletes and 584 female athletes.
1.2数据来源 1.2 Data sources
运动员在参加全国 U 系列羽毛球比赛中均需进行赛前综合素质测试,测试合格者方可继续进行参加比赛。本研究收集的 2022-2024 年所有单打运动员的体能测试数据,国少单打运动员优选结果均来自 2022-2024 年全国 U 系列羽毛球比赛 U12-U14 的赛前综合素质测试和单打比赛成绩(图 1)。测试项目包括 20 次低重心四点跑,三分钟双摇跳绳,垂直纵跳, 30米xx5\times 5往返跑和立定跳远 5 项体能素质指标。测试在比赛前由中国羽毛球协会指派测试专家,按照竞赛规程的测试项目标准,办法进行,测试流程具有权威性,专业性,规范性的特点,测试数据官方,可靠。这些测试项目能够全面反映青少年羽毛球运动员的灵敏性,协调性,力量,速度和耐力等关键体能要素。 Athletes are required to take pre-competition general fitness test in national U-series badminton tournaments, and those who pass the test can continue to participate in the tournaments. The physical fitness test data of all singles players in 2022-2024 collected in this study, and the preferred results of national junior singles players were all from the pre-competition comprehensive quality test and singles competition results of U12-U14 in the national U-series badminton tournaments in 2022-2024 (Fig. 1). The test items include 20 times of low center of gravity four-point run, three-minute double-swing rope skipping, vertical jump, 30-meter xx5\times 5 back-and-forth run and standing long jump, which are five physical fitness indicators. Test before the game by the China Badminton Association assigned test experts, according to the competition regulations of the test program standards, methods, test process has authority, professionalism, standardized characteristics, test data official, reliable. These test items can fully reflect the sensitivity, coordination, strength, speed and endurance and other key physical elements of young badminton players.
图1 数据收集整理流程 Figure 1 Data collection and organization process
Figure 1 Data Collection and Processing Flow
在此基础上,运用箱型图理论对测试数据进行异常值检验,进一步检查异常值产生原因,替换因数据录入错误产生的异常值,最终样本量不变(表 1)。确认所有数据均符合正态分布,为后续科学,有效的统计分析奠定了坚实基础。 On this basis, the box plot theory was applied to the test data for the outlier test, to further check the causes of outliers, to replace the outliers caused by data entry errors, and to keep the final sample size unchanged (Table 1). It was confirmed that all the data conformed to normal distribution, laying a solid foundation for subsequent scientific and effective statistical analysis.
表1样本量汇总表 Table 1 Summary of sample size
Table 1 Summary of Sample Size
ROC 曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic curve,即受试者工作特征,以下简称为 ROC曲线)分析是评价诊断性实验优劣及确定阈值的一种方法 ^([16-18]){ }^{[16-18]} 。其原理是根据每个阈值的真阳性率和假阳性率来判断最佳阈值点,是医学诊断中设立病症阳性阈值的重要方法 ^([19]){ }^{[19]} 。在体育领域中,建立健康体力活动参考标准 ^([16][20]){ }^{[16][20]} 和运动员体能水平的参考标准 ^([19]){ }^{[19]} 的分析中,已经取得了较好的应用成效。 ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, hereinafter referred to as ROC curve) analysis is a method of evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of diagnostic experiments and determining the threshold ^([16-18]){ }^{[16-18]} . The principle is to determine the optimal threshold point based on the true positive and false positive rates for each threshold, and is an important method for establishing a positive threshold for a condition in medical diagnosis ^([19]){ }^{[19]} . In the field of sports, the establishment of the reference standard of healthy physical activity ^([16][20]){ }^{[16][20]} and the reference standard of athletes' physical fitness level ^([19]){ }^{[19]} have been analyzed in the analysis, and have achieved better application results.
2.1 运动员体能素质表现评估 2.1 Assessment of Athletes' Physical Fitness Performance
本研究中将调查对象按照近三年国少队优选条件,分为优选组与淘汰组。优选组指在每年 U12-U14 比赛中达到全国比赛单打前 16 名的运动员,淘汰组指未在比赛中进入前 16 名的运动员。 In this study, the respondents were categorized into a preferred group and an eliminated group according to the preferred conditions of the National Junior Team in the last three years. The preferred group refers to the athletes who reached the top 16 in the singles of the national tournament in the U12-U14 tournament every year, and the eliminated group refers to the athletes who did not reach the top 16 in the tournament.
2.1.1 优选组与淘汰组差异分析 2.1.1 Difference analysis between preferred and eliminated groups
通过对体能素质成绩进行分析,优选组成绩均大于淘汰组成绩。在不同年龄组中 5 项指标的优选组与淘汰组均存在显著性差异(表 2,表 3)。在男运动员体能素质成绩中,除 U12 组垂直纵跳,U13 组 30 米 xx5\times 5 往返跑,U14 组 20 次低重心四点跑和垂直纵跳指标外,其他不同年龄组的各项指标在优选组与淘汰组均存在显著差异。在女运动员体能素质成绩中,在垂直纵跳指标成绩上,U12,U14 组的优选运动员与淘汰组运动员之间不存在显著差异,其余四项指标在优选组与淘汰组之间均存在显著差异。全国 U 系列羽毛球比赛 U12-U14 综合素质体能测试能够区分优选组与淘汰组之间的差异。 By analyzing the physical fitness scores, the scores of the preferred group were greater than the scores of the eliminated group. There was a significant difference between the preferred group and the eliminated group in all 5 indicators in different age groups (Table 2, Table 3). In the physical fitness performance of male athletes, except for vertical jump in group U12, 30 meters xx5\times 5 back and forth run in group U13, 20 times of low center of gravity four-point run and vertical jump in group U14, there is a significant difference between the preferred group and the eliminated group in all the indicators in different age groups. In the female athletes' physical fitness performance, there is no significant difference between the preferred athletes of U12 and U14 groups and the eliminated group in vertical jump index, and there is significant difference between the preferred group and the eliminated group in the other four indexes. National U Series Badminton Competitions U12-U14 Comprehensive Quality Physical Fitness Test can distinguish the difference between the preferred group and the eliminated group.
表2 男运动员优选组与淘汰组差异分析 Table 2 Analysis of differences between the preferred and eliminated groups of male athletes
Table 2 Analysis of Differences between the Preferred Group and the Eliminated Group of Male Athletes
年龄组 age groups
指标 norm
优选组( n_(1)\mathrm{n}_{1} ) Preferred group ( n_(1)\mathrm{n}_{1} )
淘汰组 (n_(2))\left(\mathrm{n}_{2}\right) Elimination group (n_(2))\left(\mathrm{n}_{2}\right)