习近平在探寻欧盟和北约的裂痕

Who is Xi Jinping’s travel agent? If you are making your first trip to Europe in nearly five years, an itinerary that reads France, Serbia, Hungary seems a little eccentric.
谁是习近平的旅行社？如果您是近五年来第一次到欧洲旅行，那么一份写着法国、塞尔维亚、匈牙利的行程似乎有些古怪。

But the three stops chosen by China’s leader make perfect sense viewed from Beijing. For strategic and economic reasons, China badly wants to disrupt the unity of both Nato and the EU. Each of the three countries that Xi is visiting is seen as a potential lever to prise open the cracks in the west.
但从北京的角度来看，中国领导人选择的这三站是完全合理的。出于战略和经济原因，中国非常希望破坏北约和欧盟的团结。习近平访问的这三个国家都被视为撬开西方裂缝的潜在杠杆。

On a recent visit to Beijing, I found Chinese foreign policy experts fascinated by French talk of the need for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy” from the US. In a speech in Paris last month, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, said that Europe must never be a “vassal of the United States” — which is language also favoured by China.
最近在北京访问时，我发现中国外交政策专家对法国关于欧洲需要从美国手中实现 "战略自主 "的言论非常着迷。法国总统埃马纽埃尔-马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）上个月在巴黎发表演讲时表示，欧洲绝不能成为 "美国的附庸"--这也是中国所喜欢的说法。

The Xi government was also delighted when Macron, on a flight back from Beijing last year, intimated that Europe had no interest in defending Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion. Although there was some effort to explain away those remarks, the Chinese have noted, with gratitude, that France later blocked efforts to open a Nato liaison office in Tokyo. Keeping Nato countries out of Asia — and preventing America from linking up its allies in Asia and Europe — is a key goal of Chinese foreign policy.
去年，马克龙在从北京飞回来的飞机上暗示欧洲没有兴趣保卫台湾免遭潜在的中国入侵，这也让习近平政府非常高兴。虽然中方曾试图解释这些言论，但后来法国阻止了在东京开设北约联络处的努力，中方对此表示感谢。让北约国家远离亚洲--阻止美国将其在亚洲和欧洲的盟友联系起来--是中国外交政策的一个重要目标。

But the Chinese are at risk of over-interpreting the radicalism of Macron’s ideas when it comes to Nato. The French president may once have described the alliance as experiencing “brain death”. But, in recent times, he has taken a much more hawkish line on Russia — which places real limits on France’s willingness and ability to distance itself from Nato or the US.
但在北约问题上，中国人有可能过度解读马克龙的激进主张。这位法国总统可能曾经把北约描述为 "脑死亡"。但近来，他在俄罗斯问题上采取了更为鹰派的立场--这对法国与北约或美国保持距离的意愿和能力构成了真正的限制。

Xi’s trip to Europe also has a strong economic component. And on these issues, France is a much more difficult partner. Macron might not challenge China over Taiwan — but the future of the French car industry is a different matter.
习近平的欧洲之行也有很强的经济成分。而在这些问题上，法国是一个更加困难的合作伙伴。马克龙可能不会在台湾问题上挑战中国，但法国汽车工业的未来则是另一回事。

China’s electric vehicles have a huge cost advantage over their European and American competitors. Exporting those EVs is crucial to Xi’s plans to revitalise China’s economy. Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, sounded accommodating to Beijing’s ambitions on a recent trip to China — reflecting German car manufacturers’ fear of a trade war.
与欧美竞争对手相比，中国的电动汽车具有巨大的成本优势。出口这些电动汽车对习近平振兴中国经济的计划至关重要。德国总理奥拉夫-肖尔茨（Olaf Scholz）在最近的一次中国之行中对中国政府的野心表现出了宽容的态度，这也反映了德国汽车制造商对贸易战的担忧。

But, with France’s strong backing, the European Commission has launched a competition inquiry into Chinese EVs. Ursula von der Leyen, the commission president — already unpopular in Beijing because of her plans to “de-risk” the EU’s relationship with China — will join Macron for a meeting with Xi. The chances of the commission backing down seem small.
但是，在法国的大力支持下，欧盟委员会已经启动了对中国电动汽车的竞争调查。欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉-冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）因计划 "降低 "欧盟与中国关系的风险而在北京不受欢迎，她将与马克龙一起与习近平会面。欧盟委员会让步的可能性似乎很小。

The Serbian leg of Xi’s European visit will give the Chinese leader a chance to ram home a geopolitical message. Xi’s visit will coincide with the 25th anniversary of the Nato bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, during the Kosovo war. That will enable China to underline the argument — also favoured by Russia — that Nato is an aggressive and dangerous organisation. (Nato has always insisted that the bombing of the Chinese embassy was an accident that took place in the context of a war to protect Kosovans from Serbian aggression.)
习近平欧洲之行的塞尔维亚段将为这位中国领导人提供一个机会，向外界传递地缘政治信息。习近平的访问恰逢科索沃战争期间北约轰炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆 25 周年。这将使中国能够强调北约是一个侵略性的危险组织这一论点--俄罗斯也赞同这一论点。(北约一直坚称，轰炸中国大使馆是在保护科索沃人民免遭塞尔维亚侵略的战争背景下发生的意外事件）。

Xi’s anti-Nato message may go over well back home, where the bombing of the Belgrade embassy is still understandably bitterly resented. Russia and much of the global south will also like the anti-western messaging. But telling Europeans that they are vassals of America and that Nato is a dangerous organisation is a message that most Europeans will find insulting at best — and threatening at worst. The 30 European countries that have joined the alliance know that, with Russia waging a war of aggression on their borders, Nato is needed more than ever.
习近平发出的反北约信息在中国国内可能会很受欢迎，因为在中国，人们对轰炸贝尔格莱德大使馆的行为仍然深恶痛绝，这是可以理解的。俄罗斯和全球大部分南方国家也会喜欢这种反西方的信息。但是，告诉欧洲人他们是美国的附庸，北约是一个危险的组织，大多数欧洲人会觉得这充其量是一种侮辱，最坏的情况是一种威胁。加入联盟的 30 个欧洲国家知道，随着俄罗斯在其边境发动侵略战争，现在比以往任何时候都更需要北约。

Xi’s third stop is Hungary — which is a Nato member. Nonetheless, the country’s leader, Viktor Orbán, has positioned himself as the most pro-Russian voice inside the western alliance — and is performing a similar service for China. Hungary has blocked several EU resolutions critical of China.
习近平的第三站是匈牙利--该国是北约成员国。尽管如此，匈牙利领导人维克托-欧尔班（Viktor Orbán）仍将自己定位为西方联盟中最亲俄的声音，并为中国提供类似的服务。匈牙利曾多次阻止欧盟通过批评中国的决议。

Having forced the Central European University, a liberal, western institution, out of Hungary, Orbán has invited China’s Fudan University to set up in Budapest. On a recent visit to Beijing, Hungary’s foreign minister poured scorn on the idea that China has an “overcapacity” in EVs.
欧尔班将中欧大学这所自由的西方学府赶出匈牙利后，又邀请中国复旦大学在布达佩斯设立分校。匈牙利外长最近访问北京时，对中国电动汽车 "产能过剩 "的说法大加嘲讽。

There is a direct pay-off for Hungary in taking this position because at least one Chinese producer of EVs is planning to use the country as a production base. If the compromise solution on EVs is for Chinese firms to do more of their manufacturing in Europe, then Hungary is well placed to profit.
匈牙利采取这一立场的直接原因是，至少有一家中国电动汽车生产商计划将匈牙利作为生产基地。如果电动汽车的折中方案是让中国企业在欧洲进行更多的生产，那么匈牙利就能从中获利。

But Xi’s decision to visit Serbia and Hungary will make it difficult to convince most other Europeans that he comes in friendship. Serbia sits outside both the EU and Nato; while Hungary has undermined both organisations from within. Both countries are friendly to Russia. The fact that Xi will return home to receive Vladimir Putin in Beijing, shortly afterwards, will deepen European apprehension about China’s real intentions.
但是，习近平访问塞尔维亚和匈牙利的决定将很难让其他大多数欧洲人相信他是带着友谊而来的。塞尔维亚游离于欧盟和北约之外，而匈牙利则从内部破坏了这两个组织。这两个国家都对俄罗斯友好。不久之后，习近平将回国在北京接见普京，这将加深欧洲人对中国真实意图的担忧。

Xi’s own understanding of how mainstream Europe sees Russia is unlikely to be furthered by spending time with outliers — like Orbán and Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vučić. The Chinese leader’s travel agent should have come up with a more challenging itinerary.
与欧尔班和塞尔维亚总统亚历山大-武契奇等离经叛道者相处，不太可能加深习近平本人对欧洲主流社会如何看待俄罗斯的理解。中国领导人的旅行社应该制定一个更具挑战性的行程。

gideon.rachman@ft.com