Equity Research

US: Countdown to Recession (Hatzius / Mericle / Phillips / Walker)

We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9.

6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others

Oil Comment: Incorporating Further Growth Downgrades in Our Reduced Oil Price Forecast

We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy. We are reducing our Dec25 Brent and WTI forecasts by $4 to $62/58. Our annual average 2026 forecasts are now $58 for Brent, and $55 for WTI, $4-5/bbl below the forwards as of Friday's close.

6 April 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others

Asian Equity Perspectives: Higher tariffs, lower earnings, partly priced

Higher tariffs and a weaker macro backdrop lead us to cut MXAPJ earnings growth by 4pp over this year and next (6pp below consensus). We reduced Taiwan and Japan’s earnings forecasts the most (-10%) on tariffs, US growth slowdown and a stronger USDJPY FX (for Japan). We expect the MXAPJ index to decline 5% over the coming quarter and to deliver 5%/8% USD price/total returns over 12 months. We downgrade Taiwan to UW in our Asian market allocations due to its high exposure to US exports, the Asian supply chain, and US market sensitivity.

  We expect 5%/8% USD price/total returns over 12m

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Timothy Moe, CFA and others

China Musings: The Tariff Pandora's Box has been opened

We trim our 2025 EPSg from 9% to 7%, and lower our target PE for MSCI China to 11.5x from 12x. Our refreshed targets imply 10%/17% 12m upside for MSCI China/CSI300, with a 50% effective US tariff rate (up from 30%), 4.5% GDP growth (unchanged), and close to Rmb2tn of additional fiscal stimulus (vs. our economists' previous base case) embedded in our equity assumptions.

6 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Kinger Lau, CFA and others

Also read:
EM Equity Strategy: Markets Tariff-fied: Trimming earnings and returns modestly, but expect EM relative outperformance

Asia Pacific: Asia bears the brunt of new US tariffs

Given the larger-than-expected tariff hit to Asia both in an absolute sense and relative to other regions, we are cutting growth forecasts for most regional economies by up to 1.2pp.

3 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others

WEBCAST TODAY: Asia Macro: Tariff implications for growth, rates & FX
7 Apr 2025 | 4pm HK
REGISTER

Also read:
China: China mirrors US tariff hike in broad retaliation
China: Higher-than-expected US tariffs likely to prompt further domestic policy easing
Japan: Further Revision to Our Japan Economic Outlook Following April 2 Tariff Announcement
India: US "reciprocal" tariffs impact: Shaving growth; Adding 50bp further easing
ANZ: Q&A on Tariffs: Higher Tariffs on Asia to Weigh on Domestic Growth and Inflation
EM Asia FX/Rates Views: Tariff Implications - Lower front-end rates; Asian FX anchored by USD/CNY

Webcast Replay: Asia Macro: Tariffs First Take

0:00 / 25:23

• Speed
  Normal

Global FX Trader: From Diminished to Finished

We are making a major shift in our Dollar view for the year ahead: we now see Dollar weakness of the first quarter persisting and deepening further.

  G10 FX forecast changes

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

4 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi and others

UPCOMING WEBCAST: US Strategy & Trading: Higher tariffs & weaker growth
8 Apr 2025 | 8:30am HK
REGISTER