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Wilson Lai
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Research & Insights

Equity Research

TARIFFS IN FOCUS

US: Countdown to Recession (Hatzius / Mericle / Phillips / Walker)

We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9.

      New Old
US Recession risk (%)
 
12M 45 35
US Real GDP (%chg yoy)
 
2025
2026
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.5


6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others

Oil Comment: Incorporating Further Growth Downgrades in Our Reduced Oil Price Forecast

We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy. We are reducing our Dec25 Brent and WTI forecasts by $4 to $62/58. Our annual average 2026 forecasts are now $58 for Brent, and $55 for WTI, $4-5/bbl below the forwards as of Friday's close.

6 April 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others

Asian Equity Perspectives: Higher tariffs, lower earnings, partly priced

Higher tariffs and a weaker macro backdrop lead us to cut MXAPJ earnings growth by 4pp over this year and next (6pp below consensus). We reduced Taiwan and Japan’s earnings forecasts the most (-10%) on tariffs, US growth slowdown and a stronger USDJPY FX (for Japan). We expect the MXAPJ index to decline 5% over the coming quarter and to deliver 5%/8% USD price/total returns over 12 months. We downgrade Taiwan to UW in our Asian market allocations due to its high exposure to US exports, the Asian supply chain, and US market sensitivity.


5 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Timothy Moe, CFA and others

China Musings: The Tariff Pandora's Box has been opened

We trim our 2025 EPSg from 9% to 7%, and lower our target PE for MSCI China to 11.5x from 12x. Our refreshed targets imply 10%/17% 12m upside for MSCI China/CSI300, with a 50% effective US tariff rate (up from 30%), 4.5% GDP growth (unchanged), and close to Rmb2tn of additional fiscal stimulus (vs. our economists' previous base case) embedded in our equity assumptions.

6 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Kinger Lau, CFA and others

Also read:
EM Equity Strategy: Markets Tariff-fied: Trimming earnings and returns modestly, but expect EM relative outperformance

Asia Pacific: Asia bears the brunt of new US tariffs

Given the larger-than-expected tariff hit to Asia both in an absolute sense and relative to other regions, we are cutting growth forecasts for most regional economies by up to 1.2pp.

3 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others


Also read:
China: China mirrors US tariff hike in broad retaliation
China: Higher-than-expected US tariffs likely to prompt further domestic policy easing
Japan: Further Revision to Our Japan Economic Outlook Following April 2 Tariff Announcement
India: US "reciprocal" tariffs impact: Shaving growth; Adding 50bp further easing
ANZ: Q&A on Tariffs: Higher Tariffs on Asia to Weigh on Domestic Growth and Inflation
EM Asia FX/Rates Views: Tariff Implications - Lower front-end rates; Asian FX anchored by USD/CNY


Webcast Replay: Asia Macro: Tariffs First Take
0:00 / 25:23
  • Speed
    Normal

Global FX Trader: From Diminished to Finished

We are making a major shift in our Dollar view for the year ahead: we now see Dollar weakness of the first quarter persisting and deepening further.


4 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi and others

UPCOMING WEBCAST: US Strategy & Trading: Higher tariffs & weaker growth
8 Apr 2025 | 8:30am HK
REGISTER

MORE MACRO IMPLICATIONS

European Daily: Europe—Economic Implications of the US Reciprocal Tariff Announcement
4 Apr 2025 | 9:05am| 9pg| Research | Economics-Sven Jari Stehn and others
FX in Focus: Loss of US Exceptionalism Strengthens Case for FX-Hedging US Equities (Fishman/Kanter)
7 Apr 2025 | 7:36am| 9pg| Research | Economics-Karen Reichgott Fishman and others
Credit Notes: Before Day 3: Steady microstructure (for now), but lingering spread widening
7 Apr 2025 | 7:15am| 8pg| Research | Credit Strategy-Lotfi Karoui and others
Oil Comment: Reducing Our Price Forecast and Dropping Our Range as Downside Risks Realize
4 Apr 2025 | 8:32am| 12pg| Research | Commodities-Daan Struyven and others

EQUITY IMPLICATIONS

While markets have moved sharply in response to the shifting outlook for trade policy and economic growth, consensus earnings estimates have hardly budged this year. The S&P 500 has declined by 14% year to date and by 11...
5 Apr 2025 | 5:59am| 27pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
TSMC will host its 1Q25 analyst meeting on 17 April 2025, 2pm Taiwan time. For 1Q25, we slightly tweak down our earnings estimates to reflect the impact from the Jan 21 earthquake. In addition, with the ongoing concern o...
6 Apr 2025 | 6:10pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Bruce Lu and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Copper equities have been hit particularly hard by the recent sell off (down 19%). In our view, this is explained by the nature of copper´s demand correlation with economic growth as well as technical risk off trade (cop...
/content/research/authors/860a4389-7049-40af-ac74-d2722a4ef242.html

Marcio Farid

Latam Basic Materials | Sao Paulo
7 Apr 2025 | 9:44am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Marcio Farid and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
Latest research
India Life Insurance: Q4 - ULIP stress to weigh on growth, focus on FY26 guidance
7 Apr 2025 | 10:47am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and others
Trent Ltd. (TREN.BO): 4QFY25 update: Weaker than expected sales growth, likely driven by LFL moderation
7 Apr 2025 | 8:45am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Saurabh Kundan and others

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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: Tariff impact across Asia markets, macro & sectors, TSMC, PDD, China Tech, Sea Ltd, HDFC Bank
7 Apr 2025 | 7:21am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
4 Apr 2025 | 8:50pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
WEEKLY ROUNDUPS
GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - April 4, 2025
5 Apr 2025 | 2:37am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
End of Week Market Intelligence: deglobalization
5 Apr 2025 | 1:29am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
3-30 Apr 2025 | Shenzhen, Virtual
Global Investment Research in partnership with Global Banking and Markets
webcast: Global
7 Apr 2025 | 8am NY | 1pm LN | 8pm HK
Richard Ramsden, Large Cap Banks
Ryan Nash, Regional Banks/Consumer Finance
Alex Blostein , Asset Managers & Capital Markets
James Yaro , Investment Banks, Brokers, Large-Cap Banks
Joseph Briggs , Senior Global Economist
Phillip Lee , Interest Rate Product Sales
Chris Hussey , Head of US Research Merchandising
Global Investment Research
webcast: Europe
7 Apr 2025 | 1pm LN | 8am NY | 8pm HK
Sebastian Frericks, CFA, Head of Group Finance & Investor Relations Carl Zeiss Meditec AG
Richard Felton, European Medtech, Global Investment Research
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
7 Apr 2025 | 10am NY | 3pm LN | 10pm HK
Alan Weckel, Founder & Technology Analyst, 650 Group
Michael Ng, US Hardware and CommTech Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs