Equity Research
US: Countdown to Recession (Hatzius / Mericle / Phillips / Walker)
We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9.
New | Old | |||
US Recession risk (%) | 12M | 45 | 35 | |
US Real GDP (%chg yoy) | 2025 2026 |
1.3 1.3 |
1.6 1.5 |
6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
Oil Comment: Incorporating Further Growth Downgrades in Our Reduced Oil Price Forecast
We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy. We are reducing our Dec25 Brent and WTI forecasts by $4 to $62/58. Our annual average 2026 forecasts are now $58 for Brent, and $55 for WTI, $4-5/bbl below the forwards as of Friday's close.
6 April 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others
Asian Equity Perspectives: Higher tariffs, lower earnings, partly priced
Higher tariffs and a weaker macro backdrop lead us to cut MXAPJ earnings growth by 4pp over this year and next (6pp below consensus). We reduced Taiwan and Japan’s earnings forecasts the most (-10%) on tariffs, US growth slowdown and a stronger USDJPY FX (for Japan). We expect the MXAPJ index to decline 5% over the coming quarter and to deliver 5%/8% USD price/total returns over 12 months. We downgrade Taiwan to UW in our Asian market allocations due to its high exposure to US exports, the Asian supply chain, and US market sensitivity.
5 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Timothy Moe, CFA and others
China Musings: The Tariff Pandora's Box has been opened
We trim our 2025 EPSg from 9% to 7%, and lower our target PE for MSCI China to 11.5x from 12x. Our refreshed targets imply 10%/17% 12m upside for MSCI China/CSI300, with a 50% effective US tariff rate (up from 30%), 4.5% GDP growth (unchanged), and close to Rmb2tn of additional fiscal stimulus (vs. our economists' previous base case) embedded in our equity assumptions.
6 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Kinger Lau, CFA and others
Asia Pacific: Asia bears the brunt of new US tariffs
Given the larger-than-expected tariff hit to Asia both in an absolute sense and relative to other regions, we are cutting growth forecasts for most regional economies by up to 1.2pp.
3 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton and others
WEBCAST TODAY: Asia Macro: Tariff implications for growth, rates & FX
7 Apr 2025 | 4pm HK
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Also read:
China: China mirrors US tariff hike in broad retaliation
China: Higher-than-expected US tariffs likely to prompt further domestic policy easing
Japan: Further Revision to Our Japan Economic Outlook Following April 2 Tariff Announcement
India: US "reciprocal" tariffs impact: Shaving growth; Adding 50bp further easing
ANZ: Q&A on Tariffs: Higher Tariffs on Asia to Weigh on Domestic Growth and Inflation
EM Asia FX/Rates Views: Tariff Implications - Lower front-end rates; Asian FX anchored by USD/CNY
Webcast Replay: Asia Macro: Tariffs First Take
Global FX Trader: From Diminished to Finished
We are making a major shift in our Dollar view for the year ahead: we now see Dollar weakness of the first quarter persisting and deepening further.
4 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi and others
UPCOMING WEBCAST: US Strategy & Trading: Higher tariffs & weaker growth
8 Apr 2025 | 8:30am HK
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MORE MACRO IMPLICATIONS
EQUITY IMPLICATIONS
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Marcio Farid
- Company HighlightsJapan airlines/logistics: Views on tariff impacts: Risk of volume decline as prices rise7 Apr 2025 | 7:18am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Norihiro Miyazaki and othersPDD Holdings (PDD): Re-assessing impact from de-minimis removal and additional tariffs; Temu US sensitivity analysis; Buy7 Apr 2025 | 1:06am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Ronald Keung, CFA and othersTrent Ltd. (TREN.BO): 4QFY25 update: Weaker than expected sales growth, likely driven by LFL moderation7 Apr 2025 | 8:45am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Saurabh Kundan and othersBeijing Roborock Technology (688169.SS): 2024 Earnings Review: Strong revenue momentum yet margin uncertainty increases with looming tariffs; Neutral7 Apr 2025 | 8:28am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Nicolas Yi and othersBochu (688188.SS): 4Q24 in-line, 1Q25 on track for 20%+ growth; maintain Neutral7 Apr 2025 | 8:23am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Jacqueline Du and othersJubilant Foodworks (JUBI.BO): 4QFY25 update: Beats LFL growth estimates7 Apr 2025 | 8:11am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Arnab Mitra and others
- Industry HighlightsMetals & Mining: Global Copper: Implied Copper Prices and Equity Downside Risks Following Recent Sell-Off7 Apr 2025 | 9:44am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Marcio Farid and othersChina Industrials: Refreshing our scenario/sensitivity analysis following the announcement of US reciprocal tariffs7 Apr 2025 | 8:30am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Nick Zheng, CFA and othersChina Healthcare: 1Q25 Preview: Eyebright to deliver robust growth, US tariff analysis on Mindray7 Apr 2025 | 7:21am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Tianyi Yan and othersGlobal IT Services Watch: Summarizing our views on industry trends ahead of 1Q earnings7 Apr 2025 | 6:19am| 10pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and othersIndia Life Insurance: Q4 - ULIP stress to weigh on growth, focus on FY26 guidance7 Apr 2025 | 10:47am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and othersBrazil Building - Homebuilders: Revisiting Theses - Cyrela Strength to Continue; MRV PT Lower7 Apr 2025 | 7:41am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYAsia-Pacific Strategy: Earnings Revisions Leading Indicator (ERLI): Apr '25 pulse check: ERLI forecasts earnings downgrades to continue amid tariff pressures6 Apr 2025 | 4:34pm| 13pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and othersJapan Market Monitor: 'Liberation Day' triple impact reflected in lowered EPS estimates, plus a more defensive TPX17 sector selection6 Apr 2025 | 1:58pm| 20pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Bruce Kirk, CFA and othersAsia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart: Asian equities declined 3% (Japan down 10%) in the week of US reciprocal tariff announcement; China announced retaliatory tariffs6 Apr 2025 | 5:58pm| 32pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and others
- OPTIONSWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (6-Apr-2025)6 Apr 2025 | 9:22pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (5-Apr-2025)5 Apr 2025 | 9:44pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallCross-asset Dislocations (4-Apr-2025)4 Apr 2025 | 7:13pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
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