China’s Stock Rally Faces Risk as Retail Enthusiasm Seen Cooling
中国股市反弹面临风险，零售热情似乎正在降温

Retail investors are cashing out from China’s exchange-traded funds, risking further market volatility if Beijing fails to boost sentiment, according to analysts.
分析师表示，零售投资者正在从中国的交易所交易基金中撤资，如果北京未能提振市场情绪，可能会导致进一步的市场波动。

ETFs have seen net outflows since late October, according to an analysis by Haitong Securities. ETFs have been a popular choice for local retail investors to invest in stocks, as it is a hassle-free and less expensive tool that allows them to pursue themes such as dividend stocks that dovetail with Beijing’s priorities.
根据海通证券的分析，自十月底以来，ETF 出现了净流出。ETF 一直是当地散户投资者投资股票的热门选择，因为它是一种无忧且成本较低的工具，使他们能够追求与北京优先事项相契合的主题，如股息股票。

The largest onshore exchange-traded funds tracking the CSI 300 Index, the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index saw a combined net outflow of about 40 billion yuan ($5.5 billion) so far till Nov. 25, on track for the biggest monthly sales on record.
截至 11 月 25 日，跟踪 CSI 300 指数、创业板指数和 STAR 50 指数的最大在岸交易所交易基金的净流出总额约为 400 亿元人民币（55 亿美元），有望创下有记录以来的最大月销售额。

The outflows signal investor doubts that Beijing’s stimulus will prove to be effective in lifting consumer spending. Higher US tariffs threatened by President-elect Donald Trump have also weighed on sentiment. The MSCI China Index has dropped about 18% from a peak in early October as investors reevaluate risks for the world’s second-largest equity market.
资金外流表明投资者对北京刺激措施能否有效提升消费支出表示怀疑。特朗普当选总统后威胁提高的美国关税也对市场情绪造成了压力。MSCI 中国指数自 10 月初的高点以来已下跌约 18%，投资者正在重新评估全球第二大股市的风险。

“The retreat of retail investors may be due to changes in market sentiment, the pursuit of short-term gains, and concerns about market risks,” said Yang Ruyi, fund manager at Shanghai Prospect Investment Management Co. “In the short term, the outflow of funds may lead to a lack of growth momentum in the market and intensify volatility.”
“散户投资者的撤退可能是由于市场情绪变化、对短期收益的追求以及对市场风险的担忧，”上海前景投资管理有限公司的基金经理杨如意表示。“在短期内，资金流出可能导致市场缺乏增长动能，并加剧波动。”

The outflows marked a sharp reversal from the trend seen a month earlier when retail investors rushed to ride a stimulus-driven equity rebound. Back then, a Chinese exchange-traded fund tracking the tech-heavy ChiNext Index attracted 35 billion yuan of net inflows in just one week, the most among ETFs worldwide.
资金流出标志着与一个月前的趋势出现了明显逆转，当时散户投资者纷纷涌入，借助刺激措施推动的股市反弹。那时，一只跟踪以科技为主的创业板指数的中国交易所交易基金在短短一周内吸引了 350 亿元的净流入，成为全球 ETF 中流入最多的基金。

In signs of reduced risk appetite, the outstanding balance of margin purchase and debt repayment has started dipping from a nine-year high reached on Nov. 13. Daily trading turnover has also more than halved from the record 3.5 trillion yuan seen last month. Those indicators suggest the market may enter a period of fluctuations, Haitong Securities analysts including Wu Xinkun wrote in a note.
在风险偏好降低的迹象下，保证金购买和债务偿还的未偿余额已开始从 11 月 13 日达到的九年高点回落。每日交易额也已从上个月创下的 3.5 万亿元人民币的纪录减半以上。这些指标表明市场可能进入波动期，海通证券分析师吴新坤在一份报告中写道。

To rekindle retail-investor enthusiasm, Beijing may need to offer more clarity on how it plans to support the economy and counter any shocks brought by potential tariffs by Trump.
为了重新激发零售投资者的热情，北京可能需要提供更多关于如何支持经济以及应对特朗普可能带来的关税冲击的清晰信息。

“The Central Economic Work Conference in December and next year’s two sessions may cause changes in market sentiment and attract additional funds into the market,” said Yang.
“杨表示：‘12 月的中央经济工作会议和明年的两会可能会导致市场情绪的变化，并吸引更多资金流入市场。’”