Equity Research
6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker and others
We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% because of tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9. If these tariffs take effect, we expect to change our forecast to a recession.
New | Old | |||
US Recession risk (%) | 12M | 45 | 35 | |
US Real GDP (%chg yoy) | 2025 2026 |
1.3 1.3 |
1.6 1.5 |
Research Unplugged: Macro Update: Countdown to Recession
With Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Kamakshya Trivedi, David Kostin, Lotfi Karoui and Allison Nathan
Measures of policy uncertainty have far surpassed levels reached during the first Trump administration and could rise further as new policies are announced and other countries respond to US tariffs. Much of the very recent rise in uncertainty was related to President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan, but even with the details of the policy now in hand, considerable uncertainty about how the policy might evolve, how other countries might react, and the potential for further tariff increases remains. We estimate the effects on business investment, hiring, and consumer spending.
6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
Oil Comment: Incorporating Further Growth Downgrades in Our Reduced Oil Price Forecast
We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy. We are reducing our Dec25 Brent and WTI forecasts by $4 to $62/58. Our annual average 2026 forecasts are now $58 for Brent, and $55 for WTI, $4-5/bbl below the forwards as of Friday's close.
6 April 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others
GOAL Kickstart: Risk Appetite collapse - dissecting the sell-off post the US tariff announcement
The market reaction to the US reciprocal tariff has been sharp. The S&P 500 has dropped 11% since Wednesday - the 5th largest 2-day drop in the S&P 500 since the Great Depression. Indeed, US equities saw the largest sell-off across assets in standard deviation terms. Non-US equities had a small reaction initially, but their fall accelerated on Friday.
7 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Andrea Ferrario and others
Global FX Trader: From Diminished to Finished
We are making a major shift in our Dollar view for the year ahead: we now see Dollar weakness of the first quarter persisting and deepening further.
4 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi and others
UPCOMING WEBCASTS:
US Strategy & Trading: Higher tariffs & weaker growth
8 Apr 2025 | 8:30am HK
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Have tariffs derailed the European banks trade?
08 Apr 2025 | 2:30PM LN
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Asia Strategy: Higher Tariffs, Lower Earnings, Allocation Changes
9 Apr 2025 | 4pm HK
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Asia Macro: Tariff implications for growth, rates & FX [Replay]
EQUITY IMPLICATIONS
Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) are a class of drugs that combines monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with Cytotoxic agents (payloads) via a chemical linker, representing a targeted therapy. ADCs have unique advantages: i) Deliver payloads directly to cancer cells, reducing the drug quantities needed and lowering side effects on healthy tissues, and ii) Higher clinical response rates than traditional therapies given the specificity of antibodies/potency of payloads. We have seen a combination of commercial success, expanding R&D pipeline and deal activity leading to ADC segment being in the spotlight in recent times.
Also see
Suven Pharma (SUVH.BO): Conjugating an era of complex capabilities; initiate at Buy
Piramal Pharma (PIRM.BO): Orchestrating a turn-around strategy for its global asset base; initiate at Buy
India Healthcare & Insurance | Mumbai
7 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and others
We believe our "muddle through" scenario for Indian Financials could be coming closer to an end, as we see early signs of improvement in asset quality and operating profitability (PPOP-ROAs), despite penciling in 100bps of rate cuts. However, in the near term the data points could remain soft, given sluggish credit growth ( see recent report), impact on NIMs due to lead/lag between loans vs. deposits and elevated credit costs, driving modest EPS cuts of 2% on average for our coverage for FY26E. We believe the sector could be closer to the bottom of the cycle, with cuts to consensus EPS forecasts for FY26-FY27E to end in 1HFY26.
Also see:
Axis Bank (AXBK.BO) Mean reversion story as profitability/growth start to improve; upgrade to Buy
PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (PNBH.BO) Improved confidence in earnings outlook; poised for re-rating; upgrade to Buy
Head, India Equity Research & Asia Financials Research | Mumbai
7 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Rahul Jain and others
- Company HighlightsMixue Group (2097.HK): Leading FMD player with solid track record and growth opportunities; Initiate at Buy8 Apr 2025 | 1:27am| 52pg| Research | Equity-Michelle Cheng and othersHSBC (HSBA.L/0005.HK): Potential for guidance downgrade, but priced in; TSR yield to offer support; Buy7 Apr 2025 | 6:50pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and othersTSMC (2330.TW): 1Q25 Earnings Preview: Navigating choppy waters; still a clear winner in the leading edge foundry space; reiterate Buy6 Apr 2025 | 6:10pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Bruce Lu and othersAmazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Framing Potential Tariff Headwinds for Amazon's 1P Business4 Apr 2025 | 12:03pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and othersTitan Co. (TITN.BO): 4QFY25 update: Strong jewellery growth but EBIT growth could moderate on low studded ratio; Buy8 Apr 2025 | 1:17am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Arnab Mitra and othersEDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR.LS): Deep dive into EBITDA cash conversion: lower PT but still oversold7 Apr 2025 | 12:00pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and others
- Industry HighlightsAustralia TMET: Framing the impacts from tariffs and current valuation support7 Apr 2025 | 8:57pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Kane Hannan, CFA and othersChina Transportation: Re-assessing US tariffs impact: Sell air freight, cautious on container shipping and ports7 Apr 2025 | 7:36pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Herbert Lu and othersNavigating China Internet: Assessing mega-caps' overseas exposures and valuation risk-reward following share price moves7 Apr 2025 | 7:58am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Ronald Keung, CFA and othersAmericas Capital Markets: Navigating Capital Markets stocks amid a sharp sell-off and potential recession; FAQs on Alt Managers / Brokers / Trust Banks7 Apr 2025 | 6:52pm| 22pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and othersGlobal IT Services Watch: Summarizing our views on industry trends ahead of 1Q earnings7 Apr 2025 | 6:19am| 10pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and othersAmericas Technology: IT Services: Earnings preview: Cutting estimates to reflect macro weakness and a pushout in demand recovery7 Apr 2025 | 6:19am| 16pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Weekly Kickstart: What to watch during the 1Q 2025 earnings season5 Apr 2025 | 5:59am| 27pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersChina Musings: The Tariff Pandora's Box has been opened6 Apr 2025 | 1:24pm| 13pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Kinger Lau, CFA and othersGlobal Weekly Kickstart: Global markets sell-off on US tariff announcements7 Apr 2025 | 10:01pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Guillaume Jaisson and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (07-Apr-25)8 Apr 2025 | 12:53am| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (6-Apr-2025)6 Apr 2025 | 9:22pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (5-Apr-2025)5 Apr 2025 | 9:44pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
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