Equity Research

US: Countdown to Recession 

6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker and others

We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% because of tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9.  If these tariffs take effect, we expect to change our forecast to a recession.

  Research Unplugged: Macro Update: Countdown to Recession

With Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Kamakshya Trivedi, David Kostin, Lotfi Karoui and Allison Nathan

US Economics Analyst: The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment, Hiring, and Consumer Spending (Rindels / Abecasis / Mericle)

Measures of policy uncertainty have far surpassed levels reached during the first Trump administration and could rise further as new policies are announced and other countries respond to US tariffs. Much of the very recent rise in uncertainty was related to President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan, but even with the details of the policy now in hand, considerable uncertainty about how the policy might evolve, how other countries might react, and the potential for further tariff increases remains. We estimate the effects on business investment, hiring, and consumer spending.

6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others

Oil Comment: Incorporating Further Growth Downgrades in Our Reduced Oil Price Forecast

We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy. We are reducing our Dec25 Brent and WTI forecasts by $4 to $62/58. Our annual average 2026 forecasts are now $58 for Brent, and $55 for WTI, $4-5/bbl below the forwards as of Friday's close.

  Oil forecast changes

We Now Forecast Annual Averages in 2025/2026 of $66/58 for Brent and $63/55 for WTI, Below the Forwards in 2026 as of Friday's (Apr 4) Close

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

6 April 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others

GOAL Kickstart: Risk Appetite collapse - dissecting the sell-off post the US tariff announcement

The market reaction to the US reciprocal tariff has been sharp. The S&P 500 has dropped 11% since Wednesday - the 5th largest 2-day drop in the S&P 500 since the Great Depression. Indeed, US equities saw the largest sell-off across assets in standard deviation terms. Non-US equities had a small reaction initially, but their fall accelerated on Friday.

7 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Andrea Ferrario and others

Global FX Trader: From Diminished to Finished

We are making a major shift in our Dollar view for the year ahead: we now see Dollar weakness of the first quarter persisting and deepening further.

  G10 FX forecast changes

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

4 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi and others
 

UPCOMING WEBCASTS:

US Strategy & Trading: Higher tariffs & weaker growth
8 Apr 2025 | 8:30am HK
REGISTER

Have tariffs derailed the European banks trade?
08 Apr 2025 | 2:30PM LN
REGISTER

Asia Strategy: Higher Tariffs, Lower Earnings, Allocation Changes
9 Apr 2025 | 4pm HK
REGISTER

Asia Macro: Tariff implications for growth, rates & FX [Replay]

0:00 / 30:44

• Speed
  Normal

Visit the Trade policy page for more >