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Equity Research

TARIFFS IN FOCUS

US: Countdown to Recession 

6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker and others

We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% because of tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty. This baseline forecast still rests on our standing assumption that the effective US tariff rate will rise by 15pp in total, which would now require a large reduction in the tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 9.  If these tariffs take effect, we expect to change our forecast to a recession.

      New Old
US Recession risk (%)
 
12M 45 35
US Real GDP (%chg yoy)
 
2025
2026
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.5

  Research Unplugged: Macro Update: Countdown to Recession

With Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Kamakshya Trivedi, David Kostin, Lotfi Karoui and Allison Nathan

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US Economics Analyst: The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment, Hiring, and Consumer Spending (Rindels / Abecasis / Mericle)

Measures of policy uncertainty have far surpassed levels reached during the first Trump administration and could rise further as new policies are announced and other countries respond to US tariffs. Much of the very recent rise in uncertainty was related to President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan, but even with the details of the policy now in hand, considerable uncertainty about how the policy might evolve, how other countries might react, and the potential for further tariff increases remains. We estimate the effects on business investment, hiring, and consumer spending.

6 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others

Oil Comment: Incorporating Further Growth Downgrades in Our Reduced Oil Price Forecast

We reduce our oil price forecast further as we incorporate our economists' GDP downgrades from the last few days, including the forecast of a stagnating US economy. We are reducing our Dec25 Brent and WTI forecasts by $4 to $62/58. Our annual average 2026 forecasts are now $58 for Brent, and $55 for WTI, $4-5/bbl below the forwards as of Friday's close.


6 April 2025 | Research | Commodities - Daan Struyven and others

GOAL Kickstart: Risk Appetite collapse - dissecting the sell-off post the US tariff announcement

The market reaction to the US reciprocal tariff has been sharp. The S&P 500 has dropped 11% since Wednesday - the 5th largest 2-day drop in the S&P 500 since the Great Depression. Indeed, US equities saw the largest sell-off across assets in standard deviation terms. Non-US equities had a small reaction initially, but their fall accelerated on Friday.

7 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Andrea Ferrario and others

Global FX Trader: From Diminished to Finished

We are making a major shift in our Dollar view for the year ahead: we now see Dollar weakness of the first quarter persisting and deepening further.


4 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Kamakshya Trivedi and others
 


Asia Macro: Tariff implications for growth, rates & FX [Replay]

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Visit the Trade policy page for more >

EQUITY IMPLICATIONS

China Commodities: Tariffs - China steel and metals, and ag commodities
7 Apr 2025 | 9:24pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Trina Chen and others
China Banks: Implications of Tariffs
7 Apr 2025 | 5:55pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Shuo Yang, Ph.D. and others
APAC Energy & Chemicals Strategy: Assessing impact from reciprocal tariffs
8 Apr 2025 | 12:13am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Nikhil Bhandari and others
Japan Games: Estimating potential earnings impact of reciprocal tariffs
8 Apr 2025 | 9:24am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Minami Munakata and others
China Industrial Tech: Re-assessing earnings sensitivity on escalated tariffs
7 Apr 2025 | 11:52am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Jacqueline Du and others
China Automobiles: Assessing potential impact from latest round of tariffs on NEV OEMs
7 Apr 2025 | 6:29pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Tina Hou and others
Optical Transceiver: Tariff impact and Scenario Analysis; Lower estimates/TPs
7 Apr 2025 | 4:47pm| 16pg| Research | Equity-Jin Guo and others
Asia faces a wide-ranging and sharp boost in US tariffs on its exports: the newly imposed effective reciprocal tariff rate ranges from roughly 20-40pp. Higher tariffs and a weaker macro backdrop lead us to cut MXAPJ earn...
5 Apr 2025 | 11:32pm| 12pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and others
Following the announcement of reciprocal tariff policies on April 2nd, 2025, we lower estimates and/or target prices for AAPL, HPQ, DELL, SMCI, and HPE due to supply chain exposure in affected regions. We reduce estimate...
8 Apr 2025 | 4:08am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

India Healthcare: Custom Research and Manufacturing Services (CRO/CDMO): Latching onto the ADC wave; Initiate on SUVH/PIRM at Buy

Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) are a class of drugs that combines monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with Cytotoxic agents (payloads) via a chemical linker, representing a targeted therapy. ADCs have unique advantages: i) Deliver payloads directly to cancer cells, reducing the drug quantities needed and lowering side effects on healthy tissues, and ii) Higher clinical response rates than traditional therapies given the specificity of antibodies/potency of payloads. We have seen a combination of commercial success, expanding R&D pipeline and deal activity leading to ADC segment being in the spotlight in recent times.

Also see
Suven Pharma (SUVH.BO): Conjugating an era of complex capabilities; initiate at Buy
Piramal Pharma (PIRM.BO): Orchestrating a turn-around strategy for its global asset base; initiate at Buy

Shyam Srinivasan, CFA
India Healthcare & Insurance | Mumbai


7 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and others

India Banks: From "muddle through" scenario to light at end of the tunnel; Upgrade Axis/PNBH to Buy and SBI to Neutral

We believe our "muddle through" scenario for Indian Financials could be coming closer to an end, as we see early signs of improvement in asset quality and operating profitability (PPOP-ROAs), despite penciling in 100bps of rate cuts. However, in the near term the data points could remain soft, given sluggish credit growth ( see recent report), impact on NIMs due to lead/lag between loans vs. deposits and elevated credit costs, driving modest EPS cuts of 2% on average for our coverage for FY26E. We believe the sector could be closer to the bottom of the cycle, with cuts to consensus EPS forecasts for FY26-FY27E to end in 1HFY26.


Also see:
Axis Bank (AXBK.BO) Mean reversion story as profitability/growth start to improve; upgrade to Buy
PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (PNBH.BO) Improved confidence in earnings outlook; poised for re-rating; upgrade to Buy

Rahul Jain
Head, India Equity Research & Asia Financials Research | Mumbai

7 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Rahul Jain and others  

RATING AND LIST CHANGES
Piramal Pharma (PIRM.BO): Orchestrating a turn-around strategy for its global asset base; initiate at Buy
7 Apr 2025 | 11:56pm| 37pg| Research | Equity-Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and others
I
Suven Pharma (SUVH.BO): Conjugating an era of complex capabilities; initiate at Buy
7 Apr 2025 | 11:55pm| 39pg| Research | Equity-Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and others
I
Latest research
Asia Pacific Insurance: Tariffs and macro uncertainty to drive greater focus on B/S strength
8 Apr 2025 | 10:43am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Thomas Wang and others
GS SUSTAIN: Sustainable Quality universe update & entry points
8 Apr 2025 | 10:28am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Derek R. Bingham and others
Minerva (BEEF3.SA): Announces a capital increase
8 Apr 2025 | 9:52am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Thiago Bortoluci and others
Europe Multi-Industry: Barometers - 1Q25 preview
8 Apr 2025 | 9:43am| 33pg| Research | Equity-Daniela Costa and others
Peruvian Lending in Pictures: February 2025: Profitability falls on lower spreads
8 Apr 2025 | 9:25am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others
Japan Games: Estimating potential earnings impact of reciprocal tariffs
8 Apr 2025 | 9:24am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Minami Munakata and others
Chilean Lending in Pictures: February 2025: Slower loan growth, but better asset quality
8 Apr 2025 | 9:14am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others

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DAILY ROUNDUPS
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8 Apr 2025 | 2:07am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
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UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
3-30 Apr 2025 | Shenzhen, Virtual
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8 Apr 2025 | 2:30pm LN | 9:30am NY | 9:30pm HK
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