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TMT Breakout

TMT Breakout aims to be your TMT specialist and pass along the most important and relevant technology, media, and telecom stock moving research, trade ideas, and news items along with our own commentary every day, twice a day.

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TMT Breakout

By TMT Breakout

TMT Breakout aims to pass along the most important and relevant technology, media, and telecom stock moving research, trade ideas, and news items along with our own insight and commentary every day. Yes, a TMT Specialist!

4:47 AM

CRM HPQ CRWD NTAP Quick Takes

CRM +4%: Decent results as cRPO beat at 11% cc vs street/buyside around 10% / revs in line…Rev guide slightly below but cRPO guide in line…CFO is leaving

paid∙TMT Breakout∙3 min read

4:28 AM

NVDA Quick Take

NVDA -2%: Decent results with DC/Total revs in-line with bogeys and approves $50B; Q3 guide slightly below bogey

paid∙TMT Breakout∙1 min read

3:48 AM

TMTB EOD Wrap

A little early today as we have some big prints after the close.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙2 min read

Aug 28

TMTB Morning Wrap

Happy NVDA EPS day.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙7 min read

Aug 27

TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙9 min read

Aug 27

TMTB EOD Wrap

QQQs -90bps as IWM +30bps outperform. Treasuries have a modest bid, with yields flat-to-down 2bp across the curve with 10year yields making 52wk lows. Fed expectations are holding approximately steady, with the market pricing in a 33bp rate cut on 9/18 and ~103bp for the year (h/t VitalKnowledge).

paid∙TMT Breakout∙2 min read

Aug 26

TMTB: Earnings Cheat Sheet for this week

NVDA CHWY CRM CRWD DELL MRVL MDB ESTC

paid∙TMT Breakout∙1 min read

Aug 26

TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙6 min read

Aug 25

TMTB Weekly

Happy Sunday.

founding∙TMT Breakout∙12 min read

Aug 24

TMTB Mid-Day Wrap

Early one today as the weekend approaches…QQQs +55bps selling off a bit here…Big squeezy day as Powell made it official that the Fed will start cutting in Sept in a dovish speech where he sounded increasingly concerned about the outlook for labor and basically said the Fed doesn’t want to see the unemployment rate rise any further than it already has: “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.” Yields are falling with the 2 year dn 7bps and 10 year dn 4 bps…Non-profitable tech +5% as TMT momentum pair -1.7% and large cap lagged..Let’s get to the recap

paid∙TMT Breakout∙2 min read

Aug 23

TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙9 min read

Aug 23

TMTB: INTU WDAY First takes; EOD Wrap

Good afternoon.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙3 min read

TMT Breakout

Aug 28, 2024

∙ Paid

A little early today as we have some big prints after the close. QQQs - 1% as Semis -1.3% underperformed led by SMCI’s -20% after delaying 10-k filling. In terms of factors, unprofitable tech underperformed while large cap and TMT mo outperformed. We’ll have some quick earnings takes after the close…see you then…

Semis

SMCI -20% following through on yesterday’s Hindenburg report after they delayed their 10-k filing. Stock now at $450 after being above $1,200 at one point earlier this year. WFS lowered target to $375 from $650 citing increase uncertainty and concern over rev recognition. ISI out saying SMCI concerns may help DELL -50bps and HPE gain AI server share
Other AI semis generally weak ahead of NVDA -1.5%: ARM - 4%; MU - 3%; AMD - 2.5%; AVGO - 2%. TSM -50bps fared the best
AMBA +11% after their beat and raise citing growth stemming from multiple waves of new CV product ramps (CV5, CV7, and CV3 families) for both IoT and Automotive, with all new products coming with higher ASPs
INTC - 2% after more neg press of board member leaving
Analog mixed: TXN - 1%; MCHP - 1.5%; ON -1.5%; NXPI - 2%

Internet

CHWY +10% after solid results with EBITDA posting nice upside and sequential improvement in active customers.
AMZN -1.5%: slight downtick in 3p retail NA sales this week, tracking 1ppts below street
PDD - 7% continues to hit new lows; Other China names weak: BIDU -3%; BAB - 2%; JD - 2%
Housing names weak: OPEN - 11%; RDFN -7%; Z -1.3%
META - 20bps fared the best out of large cap with GOOGL - 1% and NFLX - 1.8%
W - 3% despite Mizuho talking up their in-store openings

Software

CRM -2% after more mixed sell-side checks ahead of the print
Large cap mixed: ORCL - 50bps; NOW - 2%; MSFT - 80bps
Cloud names weak: SNOW - 3.5% closing at new lows; DDOG - 2%; CFLT - 2.5%; MDB - 2%

Elsewhere

OpenAI in talks for funding round valuing it above $1B - WSJ
Fintech weak as BTC - 4%: COIN - 3%; HOOD - 5%; UPST - 5%; AFRm - 4%; PYPl - 1.7%; SQ - 3%
AAPL -20bps fared better
PARA +2%
TSLA - 2% despite some decent weekly yipit data