The Deal Maker in Chief Is Back
首席交易撮合者回来了

The questions facing a new Trump era
新特朗普时代面临的问题

Good morning on this Inauguration Day. Welcome to Round 2 of President Donald Trump. No matter your politics, it is likely to be a historic ride.
在就职日早上好。欢迎来到唐纳德·特朗普总统的第二轮选举。无论你的政治立场如何，这都可能是一次历史性的旅程。

For business and policy leaders, the next administration is expected to be filled with deals of all sorts — from White House agreements brokered over secure phone lines with foreign powers to congressional backroom pacts to headline-making deals negotiated by Wall Street.
对于商业和政策领导人来说，下一届政府预计将充满各种各样的交易——从通过安全电话线与外国势力达成的白宫协议，到国会幕后协议，再到华尔街谈判达成的头条新闻协议。

This is a transactional president, perhaps the most transactional ever. He wants to engage with the business community, which is a big distinction from the Biden administration. He takes great pride in publicly name-dropping the C.E.O.s he’s talking with. “Today, I spoke with Tim Cook of Apple,” he told supporters last night. “He said they’re going to make a massive investment in the United States because of our big election win.”
这是一位交易型总统，也许是有史以来最具交易性的总统。他希望与商界接触，这是与拜登政府的一大区别。他对公开点名与他交谈的首席执行官感到非常自豪。 “今天，我与苹果公司的蒂姆·库克进行了交谈，”他昨晚告诉支持者。 “他说，由于我们在选举中取得重大胜利，他们将在美国进行大规模投资。”

Trump is rooting for big business, until he isn’t. He’s fickle. And uncertain.
特朗普一直在支持大企业，直到他不再支持为止。他善变。并且不确定。

That poses a big challenge for business leaders: How and when might Trump’s unpredictability emerge? Is there a red line? C.E.O. calculations have been that a second term means that uncertainty — something many dislike — is a certainty. But many think that they can manage it, or at least they tell themselves they can.
这给商界领袖带来了巨大的挑战：特朗普的不可预测性会如何以及何时出现？有红线吗？首席执行官的计算是，连任意味着不确定性——许多人不喜欢的东西——是确定的。但许多人认为他们可以做到，或者至少他们告诉自己可以。

After Trump’s 2016 win, he invited tech C.E.O.s to meet with him (that was, of course, a photo op). They showed up, though many came reluctantly. Others joined his administration’s various councils only to depart when he said things that appeared to cross a line.
特朗普 2016 年获胜后，他邀请科技公司首席执行官与他会面（当然，这是一次合影留念）。他们出现了，尽管许多人不情愿地来了。其他人加入了他的政府的各个委员会，但当他说了一些似乎越界的话时，他们就离开了。

This time, many are all-in — at least for now. Some genuinely support him, or at least think he was better than the alternative. Others have taken an “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” attitude. Or it may be that his threats, real and imagined, are working. He said as much in a candid moment about his threats to arrest Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s C.E.O., and the company’s decision to abandon fact-checking on the platform, saying Zuckerberg’s decision was “probably” the result of those threats. (Many of these same people rebuked him after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol in 2021).
这一次，许多人都全力以赴——至少目前是这样。有些人真诚地支持他，或者至少认为他比其他人更好。其他人则采取“如果你不能打败他们，就加入他们”的态度。或者他的威胁，无论是真实的还是想象的，都可能正在发挥作用。他在一个坦诚的时刻谈到了他威胁要逮捕 Meta 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格，以及该公司决定放弃在平台上进行事实核查的决定，并表示扎克伯格的决定“可能”是这些威胁的结果。 （2021 年 1 月 6 日国会大厦袭击事件后，这些人中的许多人都谴责了他）。

We will see how long the love affair with business lasts. It may be longer than some skeptics suggest. Now that he’s in power, the business community needs Trump to like them: It’ll need his support if deals and investments are to flourish; it needs him to push the corporate tax rate lower; and the crypto world needs him. (He also needs it given his and his family’s forays into the sector). All of this raises all sorts of questions, as we get into below.
我们将看看对商业的热爱能持续多久。它可能比一些怀疑论者认为的要长。现在他掌权了，商界需要特朗普喜欢他们：如果交易和投资要蓬勃发展，就需要他的支持；需要他降低企业税率；加密世界需要他。 （鉴于他和他的家人涉足该领域，他也需要它）。所有这些都引发了各种各样的问题，我们将在下面讨论。

We’ll be here, every morning, reporting on all of it, as well as raising and asking tough questions. I imagine there will be a lot of them. — Andrew Ross Sorkin
每天早上我们都会在这里报告所有情况，并提出和询问棘手的问题。我想会有很多人。 — 安德鲁·罗斯·索金

TikTok’s fuzzy future  TikTok 的模糊未来

TikTok users in the United States breathed sighs of relief on Sunday after the video platform began to resume service, thanks to Donald Trump’s pledge to suspend a ban of the app.
由于唐纳德·特朗普承诺暂停对该应用程序的禁令，该视频平台开始恢复服务后，美国的 TikTok 用户周日松了一口气。

But while the president-elect took credit for saving the hugely popular app — “So I like TikTok! I had a slightly good experience, wouldn’t you say?” he said at a rally on Sunday — his thinly sketched proposal leaves some big questions unanswered.
不过，尽管当选总统因拯救这款广受欢迎的应用程序而受到赞誉——“所以我喜欢 TikTok！我的经历有点不错，你说呢？”他在周日的一次集会上说——他的粗略提议留下了一些没有答案的重大问题。

What Trump said: His “initial thought,” he wrote on Truth Social, was a 50-50 joint venture between ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese owner, and an unspecified American entity. It represented Trump’s favorite thing — a deal — and on the surface had some appeal.
特朗普所说的：他在 Truth Social 上写道，他的“最初想法”是 TikTok 的中国所有者字节跳动与一家未具体说明的美国实体以 50:50 的比例成立合资企业。它代表了特朗普最喜欢的事情——达成协议——并且从表面上看具有一定的吸引力。

Trump added that he envisioned ByteDance handing over half of the company to the U.S. and that the U.S. wouldn’t pay a dime. “Whether you like TikTok or not, we’re going to make a lot of money,” he said.
特朗普补充说，他预计字节跳动将公司一半的股份移交给美国，而美国不会支付一毛钱。 “无论你是否喜欢 TikTok，我们都会赚很多钱，”他说。

But hold on a second. Trump hasn’t addressed the thorny national security concerns that persuaded a bipartisan group of lawmakers and President Biden to back the TikTok ban, not to mention who controls the ByteDance algorithm that is the key to the app’s success.
但等一下。特朗普没有解决棘手的国家安全问题，正是这些问题说服了两党议员和拜登总统支持 TikTok 禁令，更不用说谁控制着字节跳动的算法了，而字节跳动算法是该应用程序成功的关键。

Moreover, it’s not clear how Trump can legally get around the ban. While he has promised to issue an executive order saving the app, the law is still on the books — though Trump can choose how aggressively to enforce parts of it, legal experts say.
此外，目前尚不清楚特朗普如何合法地绕过该禁令。法律专家表示，虽然他承诺发布一项行政命令来拯救该应用程序，但该法律仍然存在——尽管特朗普可以选择如何积极地执行其中的部分内容。

Republicans and their allies criticized Trump’s efforts to circumvent the law:
共和党人和他们的盟友批评特朗普规避法律的行为：

• Senator Tom Cotton, the Arkansas senator who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned on X that any company that aids “communist-controlled TikTok could face hundreds of billions of dollars of ruinous liability under the law.”
  参议院情报委员会主席、阿肯色州参议员汤姆·科顿 (Tom Cotton)在 X 上警告说，任何帮助“共产党控制的 TikTok 的公司都可能根据法律面临数千亿美元的毁灭性责任”。

• Speaker Mike Johnson added that he expected the law to be enforced: “The law is very precise, and the only way to extend that is if there is an actual deal in the works,” he said on “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
  议长迈克·约翰逊补充说，他预计该法律将得到执行：“该法律非常精确，延长法律范围的唯一方法是是否达成实际协议，”他在周日的“会见媒体”节目中表示。

• Joe Lonsdale, the venture capitalist who’s close to Trump allies like Peter Thiel, wrote on X, “Tomorrow he becomes POTUS, NOT King. Congress and SCOTUS were clear. He can give TikTok 90 days, then if it’s not sold, any company facilitating it is breaking the law.”
  与彼得·泰尔等特朗普盟友关系密切的风险投资家乔·朗斯代尔 (Joe Lonsdale)在 X 上写道：“明天他将成为美国总统，而不是国王。国会和最高法院的立场很明确。他可以给 TikTok 90 天的期限，如果不出售，任何为其提供便利的公司都违反了法律。”

• And Elon Musk reiterated that while he didn’t believe in banning TikTok, he found it “unbalanced” that TikTok be allowed to operate in the U.S. but X remains blocked in China. (That said, China’s vice president, Han Zheng, met with Musk and other business leaders to say his country was open to American business.)
  埃隆·马斯克重申，虽然他不认为应该禁止 TikTok，但他发现允许 TikTok 在美国运营但 X 在中国仍被屏蔽是“不平衡的”。 （也就是说，中国国家副主席韩正会见了马斯克和其他商界领袖，表示中国对美国企业开放。）

What next? Trump will need to flesh out his proposal in the coming days to persuade lawmakers and others that it’s legally sound. Meanwhile, other bidders for TikTok are circling, including the billionaire Frank McCourt, who has assembled a group that wants to buy the app without its key algorithm, and reportedly Perplexity, an artificial intelligence start-up.
接下来怎么办？特朗普需要在未来几天充实他的提议，以说服立法者和其他人相信该提议在法律上是合理的。与此同时，TikTok 的其他竞标者也在围观，其中包括亿万富翁弗兰克·麦考特 (Frank McCourt) ，他组建了一个团队，希望在没有关键算法的情况下购买该应用程序，据报道还有人工智能初创公司Perplexity 。

For ByteDance’s U.S. investors, which include General Atlantic, Susquehanna and Sequoia, a preferred course — second only to keeping the whole thing intact — may well be to spin the company to themselves. But if China won’t let them keep the algorithm, what would they be left with?
对于字节跳动的美国投资者（包括 General Atlantic、Susquehanna 和红杉资本）来说，除了保持整体完整之外，首选的做法很可能是将公司剥离出去。但如果中国不让他们保留算法，他们还剩下什么？

Executive orders galore  行政命令层出不穷

In between the dining, dancing and speechifying, President-elect Donald Trump is expected to unveil a flurry of executive orders on Monday.
在用餐、跳舞和演讲之间，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普预计将在周一公布一系列行政命令。

First up, according to Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, are major policy shake-ups for energy, immigration and border security, work protections for federal employees, as well as halting or scaling back key planks of the Biden administration’s climate agenda.
特朗普的副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒表示，首先是能源、移民和边境安全、联邦雇员工作保护等方面的重大政策调整，以及暂停或缩减拜登政府气候议程的关键内容。

D.E.I. is also in the cross hairs. President Biden’s diversity, equity and inclusion measures for federal agencies are expected to be rolled back, just as big companies, such as Meta and Amazon, plan to eliminate or revamp some of these policies.
DEI 也处于十字准线之中。拜登总统针对联邦机构的多元化、公平和包容性措施预计将被取消，正如 Meta 和亚马逊等大公司计划取消或修改其中一些政策一样。

Electric vehicle credits are on the chopping block. Trump has long promised to undo the Inflation Reduction Act, a law that has supporters among some oil executives. It also extends credits to electric vehicle customers. Withdrawing those could dent sales of E.V.s.
电动汽车积分即将被取消。特朗普长期以来一直承诺废除《通货膨胀削减法案》，这项法律得到了一些石油高管的支持。它还向电动汽车客户提供信贷。撤销这些可能会削弱电动汽车的销量

That said, Elon Musk, Tesla’s C.E.O. and a key Trump ally, has suggested his company could weather a pullback.
尽管如此，特斯拉首席执行官、特朗普的重要盟友埃隆·马斯克表示，他的公司可能会经受住回调。

Crypto bulls rejoice   加密货币多头欢欣鼓舞

Stock and bond markets are closed in the United States for Martin Luther King’s Birthday. But crypto trading is available — and it has helped mint Donald Trump as the latest crypto billionaire.
美国股票和债券市场因马丁·路德·金诞辰休市。但加密货币交易是可行的——它帮助唐纳德·特朗普成为最新的加密货币亿万富翁。

This weekend saw a frenzied rally for Donald Trump and Melania Trump meme coins, prompted by Trump himself. “GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW,” the president-elect told his followers on Truth Social this weekend.
本周末，在特朗普本人的推动下，唐纳德·特朗普和梅拉尼娅·特朗普表情包出现了疯狂的集会。 “现在就拿走你的特朗普吧，”当选总统本周末在真相社交节目上对他的追随者说道。

It rallied further when Robinhood, the trading platform that made a big donation to Trump’s inauguration fund, began letting its customers trade the $TRUMP coin.
当向特朗普就职基金提供大笔捐款的交易平台 Robinhood 开始允许其客户交易特朗普币时，该货币进一步上涨。

Bitcoin, which hit a record on Monday, and other digital tokens have soared since Election Day on the hope that the incoming administration will loosen regulation around the sector. That said, the rally in $Trump and $Melania tokens has astounded longtime market watchers.
周一创下纪录的比特币和其他数字代币自选举日以来一直飙升，希望即将上任的政府放松对该行业的监管。也就是说，$Trump 和 $Melania 代币的上涨令长期市场观察人士感到震惊。

Ethics watchdogs see the coin as a “profound conflict of interest” for Trump. Though organizers of the Trump coin say that buying it is neither a political donation nor an investment contract, skeptics say it raises questions about the president-elect benefiting from an industry he is supposed to be regulating.
道德监管机构认为该代币对特朗普来说存在“深刻的利益冲突”。尽管特朗普硬币的组织者表示，购买它既不是政治捐赠，也不是投资合同，但怀疑论者表示，这引发了人们对当选总统从他本应监管的行业中受益的质疑。

There’s also the question of whether foreign governments could buy into the coin, potentially violating the foreign emoluments clause of the Constitution.
还有一个问题是外国政府是否可以购买这种硬币，这可能会违反宪法的外国薪酬条款。

“This may represent the single worst conflict of interest in the modern history of the presidency,” Norm Eisen, a White House ethics adviser during the Obama administration, told The Washington Post.
“这可能是现代总统历史上最严重的利益冲突，”奥巴马政府期间的白宫道德顾问诺姆·艾森告诉《华盛顿邮报》。

The big money behind the inauguration
就职典礼背后的巨额资金

As Donald Trump prepares to take office, one thing is becoming especially clear: Washington is increasingly becoming a city where it pays to pay up.
在唐纳德·特朗普准备就职之际，有一件事变得尤为明显：华盛顿正日益成为一座付费的城市。

The inaugural committee has already raised more than $170 million, shattering a record set by the first Trump committee.
首届委员会已筹集超过1.7亿美元，打破了特朗普首届委员会创下的纪录。

Corporations as well as donors have opened their wallets. Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft all gave millions to Trump this time, taking advantage of the more-permissive rules around donations for post-election activities such as the inauguration.
企业和捐助者都打开了钱包。苹果、谷歌、Meta 和微软这次都向特朗普捐赠了数百万美元，利用了针对就职典礼等选举后活动的更宽松的捐赠规则。

“Corporate America has embraced President Trump,” Brian Ballard, a powerful lobbyist and Trump fund-raiser, told The Washington Post. “Every corporate client I have wants to be a part of it.”
“美国企业界已经接受了特朗普总统，”强大的游说者和特朗普筹款人布莱恩·巴拉德告诉《华盛顿邮报》 。 “我拥有的每个企业客户都希望成为其中的一部分。”

Critics of such donations point to a pay-to-play culture. An analysis by OpenSecrets of giving to the first Trump inauguration found that more than half of the 63 federal contractors who gave won multimillion-dollar bids in 2017.
对此类捐赠的批评者将矛头指向了付费游戏文化。 OpenSecrets 对特朗普首届就职典礼捐款的分析发现，2017 年捐款的 63 家联邦承包商中有一半以上赢得了数百万美元的投标。

Among them:  他们之中：

• Lockheed Martin got a 14 percent increase in contracts in 2017 from 2016.
  洛克希德·马丁公司 2017 年的合同量比 2016 年增加了 14%。

• Boeing won the bidding process for the $600 million contract to build replacements for Air Force One.
  波音公司赢得了价值 6 亿美元的合同，为空军一号建造替代飞机。

• For-profit prison operators, including CoreCivic and Geo Group, saw huge increases in contract awards.
  CoreCivic 和 Geo Group 等营利性监狱运营商的合同授予量大幅增加。

David Rubenstein, the billionaire co-founder of the Carlyle Group, put it bluntly to The Times:
凯雷投资集团联合创始人、亿万富翁戴维·鲁宾斯坦 (David Rubenstein)对《泰晤士报》直言不讳地说：

Big donors, he said, “would like to get the policies they believe in from the federal government — more oil drilling, easier antitrust policy, more favorable crypto policy, less bank oversight. They also want more support for helping American companies invest overseas, and have ready access to government officials.”
他说，大捐助者“希望从联邦政府得到他们所相信的政策——更多的石油钻探、更宽松的反垄断政策、更有利的加密货币政策、更少的银行监管。他们还希望获得更多支持来帮助美国公司在海外投资，并能随时接触政府官员。”

How Trump’s inauguration stacks up
特朗普的就职典礼如何进行

The inauguration of Donald Trump as president will be a pricey and star-studded affair.
唐纳德·特朗普的总统就职典礼将是一场耗资巨大、众星云集的盛事。

Carrie Underwood, Rascal Flatts and the Village People are set to perform. And Snoop Dogg headlined Friday’s black-tie “Crypto Ball,” a $2,500-a-ticket gala that hailed Trump as “the first crypto president.”
Carrie Underwood、Rascal Flatts 和 Village People将进行表演。史努比狗狗 (Snoop Dogg) 成为了周五正装“加密舞会”的主角，这是一场票价 2,500 美元的盛会，称赞特朗普是“第一位加密货币总统”。

Inauguration celebrations have changed significantly over the course of American history: The more lavish the festivities, the greater the statement. On the unpretentious side were those for Thomas Jefferson and Jimmy Carter. The co-chairman of Carter’s inaugural committee told The Times that the goal was “an inauguration which is traditional but modest in one, not extravagant.”
在美国历史的进程中，就职庆典发生了重大变化：庆祝活动越奢华，声明就越重要。朴实无华的一面是托马斯·杰斐逊和吉米·卡特的作品。卡特就职委员会的联合主席告诉《泰晤士报》 ，目标是“一场传统但适度的就职典礼，而不是奢侈的就职典礼”。

Barack Obama declined corporate donations for his first inauguration (though he still managed 10 official balls and a performance by Jay-Z) before accepting them for his second inauguration. President Biden’s pandemic-marred inauguration ended with fireworks, but there were no galas.
巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 在他的第二次就职典礼上接受了企业捐款（尽管他仍然管理了10 个官方舞会和 Jay-Z 的表演），但他在第二次就职典礼上接受了这些捐款。拜登总统受疫情影响的就职典礼以烟花结束，但没有举行庆祝活动。

Trump’s festivities may draw comparisons to those of Ronald Reagan, whose 1981 inauguration fund set a record by raising $8 million (about $29 million in today’s money). As The Times described the day:
特朗普的庆祝活动可能会与罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 的庆祝活动相比较，后者 1981 年的就职基金筹集了 800 万美元（相当于今天的 2900 万美元），创下了纪录。正如《泰晤士报》描述的那样：

In white and black tie, in sequins and sables and clouds of perfume, Republican revelers stepped out tonight to the most lavish series of inaugural balls ever held in the nation’s capital.
今晚，共和党狂欢者们穿着白色和黑色领带，戴着亮片、黑貂皮和香水，参加了在该国首都举行的有史以来最奢华的一系列就职舞会。

It was an evening of shiny black limousines and nostalgic swing bands, of glittery Hollywood celebrities and wealthy Western oil men. The aura of big money was everywhere.
这是一个闪亮的黑色豪华轿车和怀旧摇摆乐队、闪闪发光的好莱坞名人和富有的西方石油人的夜晚。到处都是大钱的光环。

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