Xi Jinping may try to woo the victims of Donald Trump’s tariffs
习近平可能试图吸引特朗普关税的受害者群体

Cambodians awoke on April 3rd to learn that their exports to America would face tariffs of 49%. As they took in the news, experts warned that the country’s garment industry, which accounts for more than half of export revenues and sells most of its wares into America, would be devastated. While President Donald Trump delayed enforcement of the 49% rate on April 9th, it could yet come back.
柬埔寨人在 4 月 3 日得知，他们的出口将面临 49%的关税。当他们听到这个消息时，专家警告说，该国占出口收入一半以上的成衣业，大部分产品销往美国，可能会遭受重创。尽管总统唐纳德·特朗普于 4 月 9 日推迟了 49%税率的实施，但该税率仍有可能恢复。

So it came as some solace to Cambodians that China’s president, Xi Jinping, will arrive in Cambodia on April 17th. Though planned months in advance, the visit is shaping up as a much-needed boost to the developing country’s morale. “We are a small state, punished by the US,” says one Cambodian official. “And now Xi Jinping, as the leader of the second-largest economy, comes to us. So that helps to build our confidence. It is very emotional.”
因此，当中国国家主席习近平将于 4 月 17 日访问柬埔寨时，这对柬埔寨人来说是一个慰藉。尽管这次访问早在几个月前就已计划，但它对这个发展中国家的士气来说是一个急需的提振。“我们是一个小国，被美国惩罚了，”一位柬埔寨官员说。“而现在，作为第二大经济体的领导人，习近平主席来到我们这里。这有助于增强我们的信心。这非常令人感动。”

South-East Asia was among the hardest-hit regions on Mr Trump’s poster-board in the White House Rose Garden on April 2nd. In addition to Cambodia, Vietnam is looking at 46% tariffs, Thailand 36%, Indonesia 32% and the Philippines 17%. Malaysian goods would receive a 24% levy, but the country benefits from an exemption for semiconductors, its leading export to America. After Mr Trump’s walk-back, rates for the region (as for most of the world) will now be set at 10% for 90 days.
4 月 2 日，在白宫玫瑰园里，东南亚是特朗普总统海报板上受影响最严重的地区之一。除了柬埔寨，越南面临 46%的关税，泰国 36%，印度尼西亚 32%，菲律宾 17%。马来西亚的商品将被征收 24%的关税，但由于其主要出口产品半导体享有豁免，该国仍可享受这一优惠。在特朗普政策的调整后，该地区（以及世界大部分地区）的税率现在将设定为 90 天内的 10%。

Even Singapore received the baseline 10% tariff. This is despite the fact the city-state imposes no tariffs on America—indeed, it runs a trade deficit with America. Lawrence Wong, Singapore’s prime minister, delivered a statement to parliament on April 8th in which he declared the era of “rules-based globalisation and free trade” over, adding that America had “rejected the very system that it had created”.
甚至新加坡也收到了 10%的基本关税。尽管这座城市不对美国征收关税——实际上，它与美国存在贸易逆差。新加坡总理李显龙于 4 月 8 日在国会发表声明，宣布“基于规则的全球化和自由贸易”时代已经结束，并补充说美国“否定了它自己建立的系统”。

Mr Xi’s visit to the region, then, might seem to be well timed to make hay out of his adversary’s mistake. He will first land in Vietnam on April 14th, where he is expected to announce a series of investments in infrastructure and higher-end manufacturing. He will then travel to Malaysia, where more such announcements are planned. Cambodia will be his final stop.
于是，习近平先生的访问似乎正逢其时，可以利用对手的错误为自己谋取利益。他将于 4 月 14 日首先抵达越南，在那里他预计将宣布一系列在基础设施和高端制造业的投资。然后他将前往马来西亚，在那里还有更多的此类声明。柬埔寨将是他的最后一站。

Diplomatic dance  外交舞步

But no country in South-East Asia, least of all Mr Xi’s three hosts, has given up yet on its relationship with America. In fact, they reacted to Mr Trump’s announcement with a sangfroid lacking in other parts of the world, treating it as the beginning of a negotiation and forgoing retaliatory tariffs.
但是，东南亚各国，尤其是习近平主席的三位东道主，还没有放弃与美国的关系。事实上，他们对特朗普的声明反应冷静，将其视为谈判的开始，并未采取报复性关税措施。

Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, was among the first to call to Mr Trump after the tariffs were announced. He has offered to cut Vietnam’s tariffs on American goods to zero, and sent a negotiator to Washington. Cambodia’s prime minister has likewise offered to cut rates. Malaysia is sending a delegation to pitch a deal on supply chains and critical minerals. The region’s pragmatism now looks smart, with Mr Trump inviting negotiations and only punishing the countries that hit back.
越南的领导人陶立曼是在宣布关税后第一个联系特朗普的人。他提议将越南对美国商品的关税降至零，并派了一个谈判代表前往华盛顿。柬埔寨首相也提出了降低税率的提议。马来西亚则派出代表团，提议在供应链和关键矿产方面达成协议。该地区的务实态度现在看起来很明智，因为特朗普邀请了谈判，而只有那些回击的国家受到了惩罚。

The truth is that South-East Asia has little choice. No country in the region has the leverage of China or the European Union, which would give it a chance of a meaningful retaliation against America. Malaysia, the chair of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), has tried to cobble together a regional response. But few analysts give ASEAN much hope. Its members’ economies are very different, and it will be tricky to reconcile their interests in negotiations.
实际上，东南亚国家几乎没有选择。该地区没有像中国或欧盟那样的影响力，能够使其有机会对美国进行有效的反制。东盟轮值主席国马来西亚曾试图拼凑出一个区域回应方案，但很少有分析师对东盟抱有希望。成员国的经济差异很大，谈判中协调各方利益将非常困难。

Though some fear that the threat of tariffs will drive South-East Asia closer to China, as yet there are few signs of such a shift. Those ASEAN countries with the closest security relationships with America (such as the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore) have not sought to link them to trade—if they were to try, it might well might backfire, given Mr Trump’s tendency towards isolationism. And though ties between China’s armed forces and those of Vietnam and Cambodia are close, Mr Xi is not expected to sign any new security deals on his tour of the region.
尽管有人担心关税威胁将使东南亚更接近中国，但目前还没有迹象表明这种转变已经发生。与美国有最紧密安全关系的东盟国家（如菲律宾、泰国和新加坡）尚未将这些关系与贸易挂钩——如果他们尝试这样做，可能会适得其反，因为特朗普倾向于孤立主义。尽管中国军队与越南和柬埔寨军队的关系密切，但习近平在此次地区访问中预计不会签署任何新的安全协议。

Hedging against a hegemon
抵御一个霸权者

Moreover, American tariffs complicate China’s relationship with South-East Asia. Officials fear that Chinese goods otherwise bound for America will now be dumped into their own markets. The region was already suffering from a glut of Chinese goods, which is now expected to increase. These will undermine demand for South-East Asian products, and, along with the accompanying blow to global demand, could lead to deflation. One Malaysian official calls this the “second-level trade war”—not between America and Asia, but among the Asian victims of Mr Trump’s tariffs. If ASEAN, which has a free-trade agreement with China, puts up barriers to Chinese exports in response, it will strain the region’s ties with the Asian giant.
此外，美国的关税使中国与东南亚的关系变得复杂。官员们担心，原本要销往美国的中国商品现在将被倾销到他们的市场中。该地区本已因中国商品过剩而遭受打击，现在预计情况会进一步恶化。这将削弱对东南亚产品的需求，而伴随全球需求的下降，可能会导致通缩。一位马来西亚官员称，这是一场“二级贸易战”——不是美国与亚洲之间的贸易战，而是亚洲关税政策受害者之间的贸易战。如果东盟（与中国有自由贸易协定）对中国的出口采取壁垒措施，这将拉紧该地区与亚洲巨人的关系。

Indeed, Mr Xi’s trip may be poorly timed. His hosts are wary of seeming too close to China just as they open negotiations with Mr Trump, and anxious about a flood of Chinese goods diverting domestic demand away from their own manufactures. Long-planned deals will go ahead, but diplomats do not expect any breakthroughs. That is not to suggest that America is in a position to reap geopolitical benefits from Mr Trump’s tariffs. Even if South-East Asian governments can secure one-off deals with the American president, the hit to global demand will shake economies around the region. Uncertainty over whether Mr Trump will put tariffs back in place or capriciously adjust their levels will leave investors reluctant to back new business in the region.
的确，习近平主席的访问可能不太合适。东道国在与特朗普进行谈判之际，对显得过于亲近中国感到警惕，同时又担心大量中国商品会分流国内对本国制造商品的需求。尽管有长期计划的协议将继续进行，但外交官们并不期望取得任何突破。这并不意味着美国可以从特朗普的关税中获得地缘政治上的好处。即使东南亚政府能够与美国总统达成一次性协议，全球需求的下降也将影响该地区的经济。由于特朗普是否会重新实施关税或随意调整关税水平存在不确定性，投资者将不愿意在该地区进行新的投资。

It is a stark contrast with Mr Xi’s visit. Unlike America, where policy swings wildly from day to day, rattling markets, Mr Xi is executing a decades-long strategy to slowly bind South-East Asia’s economy more tightly to China’s. It is a plan that carries risks for South-East Asia. But at least it is one the region can count on. ■
这与习近平的访问形成了鲜明对比。与美国相比，美国的政策每天都在剧烈波动，令市场感到不安，而习近平则正在执行一项长达数十年的策略，逐步将东南亚的经济与中国的经济更加紧密地联系在一起。这是一项对东南亚存在风险的计划，但至少这是该地区可以依赖的计划。■