Central level: The National Housing and Urban Development work meeting underscored major tasks for 2025 and listed promoting housing market stabilization as a top priority. To achieve the goal, policymakers laid out key measures, incl. i) policy execution to drive both rigid/upgrade housing demand and effectively draw support from housing provident funds; ii) intensified URVP (monetized resettlement to scale-up from prior 1mn units quota according to authorities) and dilapidated houses renovation execution; iii) strictly controlling new project supply and optimizing existing inventory, and enhancement of housing supply quality; iv) expanded supply of affordable housing for sale based on local demand to help settle large numbers of new city residents, young people, and migrant workers, etc. Aside from the stabilization tasks, policymakers also vowed to promote the new property industry development model, intensify urban renewal implementation works, foster upgrades within domestic construction industries, as well as to build housing that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart.
中央层面：国家住房和城乡建设工作会议强调了 2025 年的主要任务，并将促进房地产市场稳定列为首要任务。为了实现这一目标，政策制定者提出了关键措施，包括：i) 执行政策以推动刚性/升级住房需求，并有效吸引住房公积金的支持；ii) 加强城市更新与保障性住房计划（根据当局的要求，将货币化安置规模从之前的 100 万套配额扩大）和危旧房改造的执行；iii) 严格控制新项目供应，优化现有库存，提高住房供应质量；iv) 根据当地需求扩大可负担住房的供应，以帮助安置大量新城市居民、年轻人和农民工等。除了稳定任务，政策制定者还承诺推动新的房地产行业发展模式，加强城市更新实施工作，促进国内建筑行业的升级，以及建设安全、舒适、绿色和智能的住房。
Our refined easing impact tracker (Exhibit 1 to Exhibit 5, more details on methodology and past easing impact) indicates that in the 13th week of this easing cycle: 1) aggregated primary/secondary volumes recorded +17%/+3% wow and were 139%/65% higher than pre-easing levels (vs. average 76%/54% improvement for prior weeks since the current easing cycle started), sending primary/secondary to 2%/15% above prior easing peaks; 2) CSI and CAI were -1pp/+2pp wow and were +5pp/+8pp vs. pre-easing levels (vs. average +10pp/+9pp for prior weeks); 3) the latest new home searching heat index was -2% wow, and was 8% below pre-easing levels (vs. average inline with pre-easing level for prior weeks).
我们精细化的宽松影响追踪器（展览 1 至展览 5，关于方法论和过去宽松影响的更多细节）显示，在本次宽松周期的第 13 周：1）综合的一级/二级成交量环比增长了+17%/+3%，比宽松前水平高出 139%/65%（与当前宽松周期开始以来的前几周平均增长 76%/54%相比），使一级/二级成交量分别比之前的宽松峰值高出 2%/15%；2）CSI 和 CAI 环比变化为-1 个百分点/+2 个百分点，较宽松前水平分别高出+5 个百分点/+8 个百分点（与前几周的平均值+10 个百分点/+9 个百分点相比）；3）最新的新房搜索热度指数环比下降了-2%，比宽松前水平低 8%（与前几周的宽松前水平平均持平）。
New homes sales volume on average was +18% wow, and flattish yoy with tier-2 and YRD outperforming.
新房销售量平均环比增长 18%，同比持平，二线城市和长三角地区表现优于其他地区。
Secondary transactions on average were +2% wow, and +56% yoy with stronger price appreciation expectations from homeowners but not agents.
二级交易平均环比增长 2%，同比增长 56%，业主对价格上涨的预期更强，但代理人则不然。
December: Primary GFA sold on median was +7% mom and was +11% yoy, where tier-1/2/3 was +5%/flat/+9% mom and +33%/-1%/+16% yoy, respectively. Secondary GFA sold on median was +21% mom and +65% yoy, where tier-1/2/3 was +14%/+38%/+22% mom and +130%/+66%/+28% yoy, respectively.
十二月：初级 GFA 的中位数销售环比增长了 7%，同比增长了 11%，其中一线/二线/三线分别为环比增长 5%/持平/+9%和同比增长 33%/-1%/+16%。二级 GFA 的中位数销售环比增长了 21%，同比增长了 65%，其中一线/二线/三线分别为环比增长 14%/+38%/+22%和同比增长 130%/+66%/+28%。
FY24: Primary GFA sold on average was down 21% yoy and was -12%/-45% vs. the 2022/2021 level; secondary GFA sold on average was +6% yoy and was +38%/+25% vs. the 2022/2021 level.
FY24：初级 GFA 的平均销售同比下降 21%，与 2022/2021 年水平相比分别下降 12%和 45%；二级 GFA 的平均销售同比增长 6%，与 2022/2021 年水平相比分别增长 38%和 25%。
Inventory balance was -0.2% wow and was down 6.5% from end-23, with inventory months at 25.6 (vs. average 26.4 in Nov-24).
库存余额为-0.2%，较上周下降 6.5%，库存月份为 25.6（与 2024 年 11 月的平均值 26.4 相比）。
Property sales in c.75 cities suggest top-100 developers' presales likely up 16% yoy in Dec, vs. -3% in Nov.
在大约 75 个城市的房地产销售表明，前 100 名开发商的预售在 12 月份可能同比增长 16%，而 11 月份为-3%。
Completions: GSPC tracker indicates c.30% yoy decline in Dec (vs. -39%/-18% yoy in Nov by NBS/GSe) and -13% yoy in FY24E in the GS base case.
完工：GSPC 跟踪器显示 12 月同比下降约 30%（与 NBS/GSe 11 月的 -39%/-18% 同比相比）以及在 GS 基本情况下 FY24E 同比下降 13%。
New starts: We expect new starts to record a c.25% yoy decline in Dec (vs. -27%/-20% yoy in Nov by NBS/GSe), based on land sales trends in 300 cities and nationwide cement shipment ratio (-1pp wow to 43%).
新开工：我们预计 12 月新开工将同比下降约 25%（相比于 11 月国家统计局/高盛的-27%/-20%），基于 300 个城市的土地销售趋势和全国水泥出货比例（环比下降 1 个百分点至 43%）。
Home appliance sales overall are likely to show yoy improvement in Dec, based on secondary sales trends in c.20 cities.
根据约 20 个城市的二级销售趋势，家电销售整体在 12 月可能会同比改善。
GTV for BEKE (new and existing) is likely up 36% yoy (-2%/+55% for new/existing) in 4Q24.
GTV for BEKE（新客户和现有客户）在 2024 年第四季度可能同比增长 36%（新客户-2%/+55%）。
Comparison of easing impact in c.75 primary markets vs. past easing cycles
Source: CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Comparison of easing impact on agent sentiment vs. past easing cycles
Source: Centaline, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Comparison of easing impact on new home search activities vs. past easing cycles
Latest new home search demand heat index as of week 50.
Source: Anjuke, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Summary of weekly transaction volume change in tier-1 cities
Source: CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Summary of weekly transaction volume change in tier-3 cities
Source: CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS Property Completion (GSPC) tracker indicates c.30% yoy decline in Dec-24 (vs. -39%/-18% yoy in Nov-24 by NBS/GSe) and -13% yoy for FY24E in GS base case, based on downstream supply/demand implied from our China float glass industry outlook and proprietary weekly float glass demand model.
GS 房地产完成（GSPC）跟踪器显示 2024 年 12 月同比下降约 30%（相比之下，2024 年 11 月 NBS/GSe 的同比下降为-39%/-18%），根据我们的中国浮法玻璃行业展望和专有的每周浮法玻璃需求模型，GS 基本情况下 2024 财年的同比下降为-13%。
Our offshore coverage now trades at an average 41% discount to end-2025E NAV and 0.4X 2025E P/B vs. 2H2008, 2H2011 and 1H2014 troughs of 39%, 0.7X; 73%, 0.9X; 58%, 0.9X.
我们的离岸覆盖目前以 2025 年末净资产价值（NAV）平均 41%的折扣和 2025 年预期市净率（P/B）0.4 倍交易，相比于 2008 年下半年、2011 年下半年和 2014 年上半年的低点，分别为 39%、0.7 倍；73%、0.9 倍；58%、0.9 倍。
Our onshore coverage trades at an average 24% discount to end-2025E NAV and 0.5X 2025E P/B vs. 2H2008, 2H2011 and 1H2014 troughs of 67%, 1.6X; 64%, 1.5X; 61%, 1.2X.
我们的在岸覆盖交易以平均 24%的折扣交易于 2025 年末的净资产价值（NAV），以及 0.5 倍的 2025 年预期市净率（P/B），相比于 2008 年下半年、2011 年下半年和 2014 年上半年的低点分别为 67%、1.6 倍；64%、1.5 倍；61%、1.2 倍。
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Goldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universe
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