The Nature of the Problem$\stackrel{1}{1}$$\stackrel{1}{1}$1^(1)\stackrel{1}{1}
问题的本质 $\stackrel{1}{1}$$\stackrel{1}{1}$1^(1)\stackrel{1}{1}

CHAPTER II第二章
Internal Expansion内部扩张

CHAPTER III第三章
Tife Raising of Prices 17
提夫提价 17

CHAPTER IV第四章
A Proposal for the World Economic Conference
世界经济会议提案

The International Note Issue and the Gold Standard 30
国际票据发行和黄金标准 30

CHAPTER VI第六章
Conclusion结论
35

THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM
问题的本质
If our poverty were due to famine or earthquake or war－if we lacked material things and the resources to produce them，we could not expect to find the Means to Prosperity except in hard work，abstinence，and in－ vention．In fact，our predicament is notoriously of another kind．It comes from some failure in the im－ material devices of the mind，in the working of the motives which should lead to the decisions and acts of will，necessary to put in movement the resources and technical means we already have．It is as though two motor－drivers，meeting in the middle of a highway， were unable to pass one another because neither knows the rule of the road．Their own muscles are no use；a motor engineer cannot help them；a better road would not serve．Nothing is required and nothing will avail， except a little，a very little，clear thinking．
如果我们的贫困是由于饥荒、地震或战争造成的——如果我们缺乏物质财富和生产它们的资源，那么除了努力工作、禁欲和发明之外，我们就不能指望找到繁荣的途径。众所周知，困境是另一种类型。它来自于精神上的非物质手段的失败，以及导致决策和意志行动的动机的运作上的失败，而这些失败是启动资源和技术手段所必需的。我们已经有了。就好像两个汽车司机在高速公路中间相遇，却无法超越对方，因为他们都不知道道路规则。他们自己的肌肉是没有用的；汽车工程师也无法帮助他们；一条更好的路是行不通的。除了一点点、一点点、清晰的思考之外，什么都不需要，什么也不会有用。
So，too，our problem is not a human problem of muscles and endurance．It is not an engineering prob－ lem or an agricultural problem．It is not even a busi－ ness problem，if we mean by business those calcula－ tions and dispositions and organising acts by which individual entrepreneurs can better themselves．Nor is it a banking problem，if we mean by banking those principles and methods of shrewd judgement by which lasting connections are fostered and unfortunate com－ mitments avoided．On the contrary，it is，in the strict－ est sense，an economic problem，or，to express it better，
因此，我们的问题也不是一个人类的肌肉和耐力问题。它不是一个工程问题或农业问题。它甚至不是一个商业问题，如果我们所说的商业是指那些计算和配置的话。如果我们的意思是储存那些能够培养持久联系并避免不幸的承诺的精明判断的原则和方法，那么这也不是一个银行问题。相反，从最严格的意义上来说，它是一个经济问题，或者，更好地表达它，
as suggesting a blend of economic theory with the art of statesmanship，a problem of Political Economy．
作为建议将经济理论与政治艺术相结合，这是政治经济学的一个问题。

I call attention to the nature of the problem，because it points us to the nature of the remedy．It is appropri－ ate to the case that the remedy should be found in something which can fairly be called a device．Yet there are many who are suspicious of devices，and instinct－ ively doubt their efficacy．There are still people who believe that the way out can only be found by hard work，endurance，frugality，improved business methods， more cautious banking，and，above all，the avoidance of devices．But the lorries of these people will never， I fear，get by．They may stay up all night，engage more sober chauffeurs，install new engines，and widen the road；yet they will never get by，unless they stop to think and work out with the driver opposite a small device by which each moves simultaneously a little to his left．
我提请注意问题的本质，因为它向我们指出了补救措施的本质。对于这种情况，补救措施应该在可以公平地称为设备的东西中找到。然而，有很多人对设备持怀疑态度，本能地怀疑它们的功效。仍然有人认为，只有努力工作、忍耐、节俭、改进经营方法、更加谨慎的银行业务，以及最重要的是回避，才能找到出路。的但我担心，这些人的卡车永远不会过去。他们可能会彻夜不眠，聘请更清醒的司机，安装新发动机，拓宽道路；但他们永远不会过去，除非他们停下来思考并与司机对面的一个小装置一起工作，通过该装置，每个人同时向左移动一点。

It is the existing situation which we should find para－ doxical．There is nothing paradoxical in the suggestion that some immaterial adjustment－some change，so to speak，＂on paper＂－should be capable of working wonders．The paradox is to be found in 250,000 build－ ing operatives out of work，when more houses are our greatest material need．It is the man who tells us that there is no means，consistent with sound finance and political wisdom，of getting the one to work at the other，whose judgement we should instinctively doubt． The calculations which we ought to suspect are those of the statesman，who，being already burdened with the support of the unemployed，tells us that it would involve him in heavy liabilities，present and to come， which the country cannot afford，if he were to set the men to build the houses；and the sanity to be ques－
我们应该发现矛盾的是现有的情况。一些非实质性的调整——一些改变，可以说，“纸上谈兵”——应该能够创造奇迹，这一建议并没有什么矛盾之处。悖论是可以发现的。 250,000 名建筑工人失业，更多的房子是我们最大的物质需求。正是这个人告诉我们，根据健全的财政和政治智慧，没有办法让工人工作。另一方面，我们应该本能地怀疑他们的判断。我们应该怀疑政治家的算计，他已经背负着失业者的支持，告诉我们，如果他让人们去建造房屋；并询问神智是否健全——
tioned is his，who thinks it more economical and better calculated to increase the national wealth to maintain unemployed shipbuilders，than to spend a fraction of what their maintenance is costing him，in setting them to build one of the greatest works of man．
他认为，增加国家财富来维持失业的造船厂，比花他们的维护成本的一小部分来让他们建造人类最伟大的作品之一，更经济、更明智。

When，on the contrary，I show，a little elaborately， as in the ensuing chapter，that to create wealth will increase the national income and that a large propor－ tion of any increase in the national income will accrue to an Exchequer，amongst whose largest outgoings is the payment of incomes to those who are unemployed and whose receipts are a proportion of the incomes of those who are occupied，I hope the reader will feel， whether or not he thinks himself competent to criticise the argument in detail，that the answer is just what he would expect，－that it agrees with the instinctive promptings of his commonsense．
相反，正如在接下来的章节中那样，我会稍微详细地表明，创造财富将增加国民收入，而国民收入的任何增加的很大一部分将归财政部所有，其中包括财政部门。最大的支出是向失业者支付收入，而他们的收入占有工作者收入的一部分，我希望读者，无论他是否认为自己有能力详细批评这个论点，都会感到，答案正是他所期望的——它符合他常识的本能提示。

Nor should the argument seem strange that taxation may be so high as to defeat its object，and that，given sufficient time to gather the fruits，a reduction of taxation will run a better chance，than an increase，of balancing the Budget．For to take the opposite view to－day is to resemble a manufacturer who，running at a loss，decides to raise his price，and when his declining sales increase the loss，wrapping himself in the recti－ tude of plain arithmetic，decides that prudence re－ quires him to raise the price still more ；－and who， when at last his account is balanced with nought on both sides，is still found righteously declaring that it would have been the act of a gambler to reduce the price when you were already making a loss．
这种论点似乎也不奇怪，即税收可能太高，以至于无法达到其目的，而且，如果有足够的时间来收集成果，减少税收将比增加税收更有机会平衡预算。今天持相反观点的人就像一个制造商，亏本经营，决定提高价格，而当销量下降增加损失时，他陷入简单算术的正确性中，决定谨慎行事要求他提高价格更是如此；——当他的账户最终双方都为零时，他仍然理直气壮地宣称，当你已经亏损时，降低价格将是赌徒的行为。

At any rate，the time seems ripe for reconsidering the possibilities of action．In this belief I here re－
无论如何，重新考虑行动可能性的时机似乎已经成熟。本着这一信念，我在这里重新考虑——
examine the advantages of an active policy，beginning with our own domestic affairs and proceeding to the opportunities of the World Conference．This Confer－ ence may be well－timed in spite of its delay．For it will come at a season when bitter experience makes the assembled nations readier to consider a plan．The world is less and less disposed＂to wait for the miracle＂－ to believe that things will right themselves without action on our part．
审视积极政策的优势，从我们自己的国内事务开始，然后转向世界会议的机会。尽管这次会议推迟了，但它的召开还是恰逢其时。因为它将在痛苦的经验使我们获得成功的时刻到来。各国已准备好考虑一项计划。世界越来越不愿意“等待奇迹”——相信无需我们采取行动，事情就会自行好转。

INTERNAL EXPANSION内部扩张
The reluctance to support schemes of capital develop－ ment at home as a means to restore prosperity is gener－ ally based on two grounds－the meagreness of the employment created by the expenditure of a given sum，and the strain on national and local budgets of the subsidies which such schemes usually require．These are quantitative questions not easily answered with precision．But I will endeavour to give reasons for the belief that the answers to both of them are much more favourable than is commonly supposed．
不愿支持国内资本开发计划作为恢复繁荣的手段，通常基于两个理由：一定数额的支出所创造的就业机会微乎其微，以及国家和地方预算的紧张。这些计划通常需要补贴。这些是定量问题，不容易精确回答。但我将尽力给出理由，相信这两个问题的答案都比通常认为的要有利得多。

It is often said that it costs $\pounds 500$$\pounds 500$£500£ 500 capital expenditure on public works to give one man employment for a year．This is based on the amount of labour directly employed on the spot．But it is easy to see that the materials used and the transport required also give employment．If we allow for this，as we should，the capital expenditure per man－year of additional em－ ployment is usually estimated，in the case of building for example，at $\pounds 200$$\pounds 200$£200£ 200 ．
人们常说，成本 $\pounds 500$$\pounds 500$£500£ 500 公共工程的资本支出可以提供一个人一年的就业机会。这是根据当地直接雇用的劳动力数量计算的。但是很容易看出所使用的材料和所需的运输也提供了就业机会。如果我们考虑到正如我们应该的那样，通常会估计每人年额外就业的资本支出，例如在建筑的情况下， $\pounds 200$$\pounds 200$£200£ 200 ．

But if the new expenditure is additional and not merely in substitution for other expenditure，the in－ crease of employment does not stop there．The addi－ tional wages and other incomes paid out are spent on additional purchases，which in turn lead to further em－ ployment．If the resources of the country were already fully employed，these additional purchases would be mainly reflected in higher prices and increased imports．
但如果新的支出是额外的，而不仅仅是替代其他支出，那么就业的增加就不止于此。额外支付的工资和其他收入被用于额外的购买，这反过来又导致就业的进一步增加。如果国家的资源已经得到充分利用，这些额外的购买将主要体现在价格上涨和进口增加上。

But in present circumstances this would be true of only a small proportion of the additional consumption，since the greater part of it could be provided without much change of price by home resources which are at present unemployed．Moreover，in so far as the increased de－ mand for food，resulting from the increased purchasing power of the working classes，served either to raise the prices or to increase the sales of the output of primary producers at home and abroad，we should to－day posi－ tively welcome it．It would be much better to raise the price of farm products by increasing the demand for them than by artificially restricting their supply．
但在目前情况下，这只适用于额外消费的一小部分，因为其中大部分可以通过目前闲置的国内资源来提供，而价格不会发生太大变化。此外，就增加的消费而言， － 由于工人阶级购买力的增加而产生的对粮食的需求，要么提高了价格，要么增加了国内外初级生产者产品的销售，我们今天应该积极欢迎它。会更好地提高通过增加对农产品的需求而不是人为地限制其供应来提高农产品价格。

Nor have we yet reached the end．The newly em－ ployed who supply the increased purchases of those employed on the new capital works will，in their turn， spend more，thus adding to the employment of others； and so on．Some enthusiasts，perceiving the fact of these repercussions，have greatly exaggerated the total result，and have even supposed that the amount of new employment thus created is only limited by the necessary intervals between the receipt of expenditure of income，in other words by the velocity of circula－ tion of money．Unfortunately it is not quite as good as that．For at each stage there is，so to speak，a certain proportion of leakage．At each stage a certain proportion of the increased income is not passed on in increased employment．Some part will be saved by the recipients； some part raises prices and so diminishes consumption elsewhere，except in so far as producers spend their in－ creased profits；some part will be spent on imports； some part is merely a substitution for expenditure previously made out of the dole or private charity or personal savings；and some part may reach the Ex－ chequer without relieving the taxpayer to an equal
我们还没有达到终点。新就业者为新基本工程就业者提供增加的采购，反过来，他们也会支出更多，从而增加其他人的就业；等等。一些热衷者，认识到这些影响的事实，大大夸大了总体结果，甚至假设由此创造的新就业数量仅受收入支出之间的必要间隔的限制，换句话说，受流通速度的限制。化的不幸的是，它并不那么好。可以说，因为在每个阶段都有一定比例的泄漏。在每个阶段，增加的收入的一定比例没有通过增加就业来传递。有些部分会一部分会被接受者储蓄；一部分会提高价格，从而减少其他地方的消费，除非生产者花费其增加的利润；一部分将用于进口；一部分只是替代以前从本国支出的支出。救济金或私人慈善机构或个人储蓄；并且某些部分可能会到达Ex－checker，而不会减轻纳税人的平等负担
extent．Thus in order to sum the net effect on employ－ ment of the series of repercussions，it is necessary to make reasonable assumptions as to the proportion lost in each of these ways．I would refer those who are interested in the technique of such summations to an article by Mr．R．F．Kahn published in The Economic Journal，June 1931.
因此，为了总结一系列影响对就业的净影响，有必要对每种方式的损失比例做出合理的假设。我建议那些对这种技术感兴趣的人对 R．F．Kahn 先生发表在《经济杂志》上的一篇文章的总结，1931 年 6 月。
It is obvious that the appropriate assumptions vary greatly according to circumstances．If there were little or no margin of unemployed resources，then，as I have said above，the increased expenditure would largely waste itself in higher prices and increased imports （which is，indeed，a regular feature of the later stages of a boom in new construction）．If the dole was as great as a man＇s earnings when in work and was paid for by borrowing，there would be scarcely any reper－ cussions at all．On the other hand，now that the dole is paid for by taxes and not by borrowing（so that a reduction in the dole may be expected to increase the spending power of the taxpayer），we no longer have to make so large a deduction on this head．
显然，适当的假设根据具体情况而有很大差异。如果闲置资源的边际很少或根本没有，那么，正如我上面所说，增加的支出将在很大程度上浪费在更高的价格和增加的进口上（事实上，如果救济金和一个人工作时的收入一样多，并且是通过借贷支付的，那么几乎不会有任何影响。另一个另一方面，既然救济金是通过税收而不是借贷支付的（因此救济金的减少可能会增加纳税人的消费能力），我们不再需要在这方面进行如此大的扣除。

My own estimate，taking very conservative figures in the light of present circumstances，makes the multi－ plier to be at least 2．It follows that the loan－expendi－ ture per man－year of employment is，not the figure of $\pounds 500$$\pounds 500$£500£ 500 with which we began，but $\pounds 100$$\pounds 100$£100£ 100 ．Since，however，I am anxious not to overstate what will be a sufficiently striking conclusion anyhow，let us take it at $1\frac{1}{2}$$1\frac{1}{2}$1(1)/(2)1 \frac{1}{2} ，i．e．that two men employed by loan－expenditure lead indirectly to the employment，not of two further men，which re－ presents my own belief，but of one further man．I do not think that anyone who goes through the detailed calculation can bring it out at less than this；which means that additional loan－expenditure of $\pounds 200$$\pounds 200$£200£ 200 on
我自己的估计，根据目前的情况采取非常保守的数字，使乘数至少为2。由此可见，每人就业年的贷款支出是，而不是这个数字。 $\pounds 500$$\pounds 500$£500£ 500 我们以此开始，但是 $\pounds 100$$\pounds 100$£100£ 100 ． 然而，既然我不想夸大一个足够引人注目的结论，那么让我们把它看成是 $1\frac{1}{2}$$1\frac{1}{2}$1(1)/(2)1 \frac{1}{2} ，即两个人通过贷款支出间接导致就业，不是另外两个人的就业，这代表了我自己的信念，而是另外一个人的就业。我不认为任何人经历过详细的计算可以得出小于这个；这意味着额外的贷款－支出 $\pounds 200$$\pounds 200$£200£ 200 在
materials，transport，and direct employment puts，not one man to work for a year，but－taking account of the whole series of repercussions－one and a half men． This gives us a figure of $\pounds 133$$\pounds 133$£133£ 133 as the amount of addi－ tional loan－expenditure required to－day to stimulate a man－year of employment．But let us，in order to give ourselves a further margin of safety，base our argu－ ment on the figure of $\pounds 150$$\pounds 150$£150£ 150 ．This answers，most con－ servatively，the first of our two questions．
材料、运输和直接就业使得不是一个人工作一年，而是——考虑到整个系列的影响——一个半人。这给了我们一个数字 $\pounds 133$$\pounds 133$£133£ 133 作为今天刺激一个人年就业所需的额外贷款支出的金额。但是，为了给自己提供进一步的安全边际，让我们将我们的论点建立在以下数字上： $\pounds 150$$\pounds 150$£150£ 150 ．这最保守地回答了我们两个问题中的第一个问题。

Next consider the magnitude of the relief to the Budget．For purposes of broad calculation，the average cost of a man on the dole is usually taken，I think，at $\pounds 50$$\pounds 50$£50£ 50 a year．Since，on the basis of the above calculation， a loan－expenditure of $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 will employ at least 20,000 men for a year directly or indirectly，it follows that it will save the dole $\pounds 1,000,000$$\pounds 1,000,000$£1,000,000£ 1,000,000 ．Here is one－third of the expenditure already accounted for．
接下来考虑预算减免的幅度。出于广泛计算的目的，我认为领取救济金的人的平均成本通常为 $\pounds 50$$\pounds 50$£50£ 50 一年以来，根据上述计算，贷款支出为 $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 每年将直接或间接雇用至少20,000名员工，因此将节省救济金 $\pounds 1,000,000$$\pounds 1,000,000$£1,000,000£ 1,000,000 ．这是已经计算在内的支出的三分之一。
But there is a further benefit to the Budget．The yield of the taxes rises and falls more or less in propor－ tion to the national income．Our budgetary difficulties to－day are mainly due to the decline in the national income．Now for the nation as a whole，leaving on one side transactions with foreigners，its income is exactly equal to its expenditure（including in expenditure both consumption－expenditure and new capital－expenditure， but excluding intermediate exchanges from one hand to another）；－the two being simply different names for the same thing，my expenditure being your income． Thus new capital－expenditure of $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 ，paid for by an additional loan and not by reducing consumption－ expenditure or existing capital－expenditure，increases the national income by more than $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 if we allow for repercussions．The calculation to obtain the appropriate multiplier is much the same as in the case
但预算还有一个进一步的好处。税收收益率或多或少与国民收入成正比。我们今天的预算困难主要是由于国民收入的下降。一个国家作为一个整体，一方面不考虑与外国人的交易，其收入正好等于其支出（支出中既包括消费－支出，也包括新的资本－支出，但不包括从一方面到另一方的中间交换）；－两者是只是相同的不同名称事情，我的支出就是你的收入。因此新的资本支出 $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 ，通过额外贷款而不是通过减少消费支出或现有资本支出来支付，使国民收入增加超过 $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 如果我们考虑到影响。获得适当乘数的计算与情况大致相同
of employment；except that it is somewhat greater， since to obtain the national money－income we do not have to make the same deduction for a rise in prices． However，to be on the safe side，let us，as before，take the multiplier as being $1\frac{1}{2}$$1\frac{1}{2}$1(1)/(2)1 \frac{1}{2} ．
就业；只不过它要大一些，因为要获得国民货币收入，我们不必对物价上涨进行同样的扣除。然而，为了安全起见，让我们像以前一样，将乘数视为 $1\frac{1}{2}$$1\frac{1}{2}$1(1)/(2)1 \frac{1}{2} ．
It follows that our capital expenditure of $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 will increase the national income，subject to taxation， by $\pounds 4,500,000$$\pounds 4,500,000$£4,500,000£ 4,500,000 ．Now on the average about 20 per cent of the national income is paid to the Exchequer in taxes．The exact proportion depends on how the new income is distributed between the higher ranges of income subject to direct taxation，and the lower ranges which are touched by indirect taxes；also the yield of some taxes is not closely correlated with changes in national income．To allow for these doubts，let us take the proportion of the new income accruing to the Ex－ chequer at 10 per cent，i．e．$\pounds 450,000$$\pounds 450,000$£450,000£ 450,000 ．There will，it is true，be some time－lag in the collection of this，but we need not trouble about that；though it is a powerful argument in favour of proposals for modifying the rigidity of our annual Budget and for making our esti－ mates，on this occasion，cover a longer period than one year．Owing to the time－lag in the effect of increased taxation in reducing the national income our existing budgetary procedure is open to the serious objection that the measures which will balance this Budget are calculated to unbalance the next one；and vice versa．
由此可见，我们的资本支出为 $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 将增加国民收入（需纳税） $\pounds 4,500,000$$\pounds 4,500,000$£4,500,000£ 4,500,000 现在，平均大约 20% 的国民收入以税收形式缴纳给财政部。确切的比例取决于新收入如何在直接征税的较高收入范围和所涉及的较低收入范围之间分配考虑到这些疑虑，让我们将新收入中应计给Ex－checker的比例定为10%，即。 $\pounds 450,000$$\pounds 450,000$£450,000£ 450,000 确实，在收集这些资料时会有一些时间滞后，但我们不必为此烦恼；尽管这是一个强有力的论据，支持修改我们年度预算的僵化性和制定我们的估计的建议。 － 伙伴们，这次的时间跨度超过一年。由于增税对减少国民收入的影响存在时间滞后，我们现有的预算程序会遭到严重反对，认为平衡本预算的措施计算出下一个不平衡一；反之亦然。

Thus the total benefit to the Exchequer of an additional loan－expenditure of $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 is at least $\pounds 1,000,000$$\pounds 1,000,000$£1,000,000£ 1,000,000 plus $\pounds 450,000$$\pounds 450,000$£450,000£ 450,000 ；or，in round figures， $\pounds 1,500,000$$\pounds 1,500,000$£1,500,000£ 1,500,000 ，i．e．a half of the loan－expenditure；or two－ thirds of it，if we were to take the multiplier as 2 ．We need see nothing paradoxical in this．We have reached
因此，额外贷款支出给财政带来的总收益为 $\pounds 3,000,000$$\pounds 3,000,000$£3,000,000£ 3,000,000 至少是 $\pounds 1,000,000$$\pounds 1,000,000$£1,000,000£ 1,000,000 加 $\pounds 450,000$$\pounds 450,000$£450,000£ 450,000 ；或者，以整数表示， $\pounds 1,500,000$$\pounds 1,500,000$£1,500,000£ 1,500,000 ，即贷款支出的一半；或者三分之二，如果我们将乘数取为 2 。我们不需要看到这有什么矛盾。我们已经达到了
a point where a considerable proportion of every further decline in the national income is visited on the Exchequer through the agency of the dole and the decline in the yield of the taxes．It is natural，there－ fore，that the benefit of measures to increase the national income should largely accrue to the Ex－ chequer．
到了这一点，国民收入每进一步下降，就有很大一部分会通过救济金的代理和税收收益的下降而落在财政上。因此，采取措施增加收入是很自然的。国民收入大部分应归财政部。

If we apply this reasoning to the projects for loan－ expenditure which are receiving support to－day in re－ sponsible quarters，we see that it is a complete mistake to believe that there is a dilemma between schemes for increasing employment and schemes for balancing the Budget，－that we must go slowly and cautiously with the former for fear of injuring the latter．Quite the contrary．There is no possibility of balancing the Budget except by increasing the national income，which is much the same thing as increasing employment．
如果我们把这个推理应用到目前在负责任地区得到支持的贷款支出项目上，我们就会发现，认为增加就业计划和平衡就业计划之间存在两难选择的想法是完全错误的。预算，－我们必须缓慢而谨慎地处理前者，以免损害后者。恰恰相反。除非增加国民收入，否则不可能平衡预算，这与增加就业是一样的。
Take，for example，the proposal to spend $\pounds 7,000,000$$\pounds 7,000,000$£7,000,000£ 7,000,000 on the new Cunarder．I say that this will benefit the Exchequer by at least a half of this sum，i．e．by $\pounds 3,500,000$$\pounds 3,500,000$£3,500,000£ 3,500,000 ，which vastly exceeds the maximum aid which is being asked from the Exchequer．
以支出提案为例 $\pounds 7,000,000$$\pounds 7,000,000$£7,000,000£ 7,000,000 我说这将使英国财政至少受益于这笔款项的一半，即 $\pounds 3,500,000$$\pounds 3,500,000$£3,500,000£ 3,500,000 ，这远远超过了财政部要求的最大援助。

Or take the expenditure of $\pounds 100,000,000$$\pounds 100,000,000$£100,000,000£ 100,000,000 on housing， whether for rebuilding slums or under the auspices of a National Housing Board，this would benefit the Budget by the vast total of some $\pounds 50,000,000$$\pounds 50,000,000$£50,000,000£ 50,000,000－a sum far exceeding any needful subsidy．If the mind of the reader boggles at this and he feels that it must be too good to be true，let him recur carefully to the argu－ ment which has led up to it．And if he distrusts his own judgement，let him wait and see if any competent person has been able to confound the bases of the argu－ ment，where I first offered it coram publico in the forum of The Times．
或者取支出 $\pounds 100,000,000$$\pounds 100,000,000$£100,000,000£ 100,000,000 在住房方面，无论是重建贫民窟还是在国家住房委员会的支持下，这都会使预算受益匪浅 $\pounds 50,000,000$$\pounds 50,000,000$£50,000,000£ 50,000,000 ——一笔远远超过任何必要补贴的金额。如果读者对此感到困惑，并且他觉得这一定好得令人难以置信，让他仔细地回顾一下导致这一点的论点。如果他如果他不相信自己的判断，让他等着看是否有任何有能力的人能够推翻这个论点的基础，我第一次在《泰晤士报》的论坛上提出这一论点。

Substantially the same argument also applies to a relief of taxation by suspending the Sinking Fund and by returning to the practice of financing by loans those services which can properly be so financed，such as the cost of new roads charged on the Road Fund and that part of the cost of the dole which can be averaged out against the better days for which we must hope． For the increased spending power of the taxpayer will have precisely the same favourable repercussions as in－ creased spending power due to loan－expenditure；and in some ways this method of increasing expenditure is healthier and better spread throughout the community． If the Chancellor of the Exchequer will reduce taxa－ tion by $\pounds 50,000,000$$\pounds 50,000,000$£50,000,000£ 50,000,000 through suspending the Sinking Fund and borrowing in those cases where formerly we thought it reasonable to borrow，the half of what he remits will in fact return to him from the saving on the dole and the higher yield of a given level of taxa－ tion；－though，as I have pointed out above，it will not necessarily return to him in the same Budget．I strongly support，therefore，the suggestion which has been made that the next Budget should be divided into two parts， one of which shall include those items of expenditure which it would be proper to treat as loan－expenditure in present circumstances．
实质上，同样的论点也适用于通过暂停偿债基金和恢复通过贷款融资的做法来减免税收，这些服务可以适当地通过这种方式融资，例如道路基金收取的新道路成本和该部分救济金的成本可以根据我们必须希望的更好的日子来平均。因为纳税人消费能力的增强与贷款支出增强消费能力会产生完全相同的有利影响；而且从某些方面来说，这种增加支出的方法更健康、更好地在整个社会传播。如果财政大臣将减税 $\pounds 50,000,000$$\pounds 50,000,000$£50,000,000£ 50,000,000 通过暂停偿债基金并在以前我们认为合理借钱的情况下借钱，他汇出的一半实际上将从救济金储蓄和给定税收水平的较高收益中返还给他； －不过，正如我在上面指出的，它不一定会在同一个预算案中返回给他。因此，我强烈支持所提出的建议，即下一个预算案应分为两部分，其中一部分应包括那些开支项目在目前情况下，将其视为贷款支出是合适的。

I should add that this particular argument does not apply to a relief of taxation balanced by an equal re－ duction of Government expenditure（by reducing school teachers＇salaries，for example）；for this represents a redistribution，not a net increase，of national spending power．It is applicable to all additional expenditure made，not in substitution for other expenditure，but out of savings or out of borrowed money，either by private persons or by public authorities，whether for
我应该补充一点，这个特定的论点并不适用于通过同等减少政府支出（例如通过减少学校教师的工资）来平衡税收减免；因为这代表着国民收入的重新分配，而不是净增加。它适用于所有额外支出，不是为了替代其他支出，而是出于储蓄或借钱，无论是由私人还是公共当局，无论是为了
capital purposes or for consumption made possible by a relief of taxation or in some other way．
资本目的或通过减税或其他方式实现的消费。

It is often pointed out that，when loan－expenditure was on a larger scale as a result of official encourage－ ment，this did not prevent an increase of unemployment． But at that time it was offsetting incompletely an even more rapid deterioration in our foreign balance．The effects of an increase or decrease of $\pounds 100,000,000$$\pounds 100,000,000$£100,000,000£ 100,000,000 in our loan－expenditure are，broadly speaking，equal to the effects of an increase or decrease of $\pounds 100,000,000$$\pounds 100,000,000$£100,000,000£ 100,000,000 in our foreign balance．Formerly we had no visible benefit from our loan－expenditure，because it was being offset by a deterioration in our foreign balance．Re－ cently we have had no visible benefit from the im－ provement in our foreign balance，because it has been offset by the reduction in our loan－expenditure．To－ day for the first time it is open to us，if we choose，to have both factors favourable at once．
人们经常指出，当官方鼓励导致贷款支出规模扩大时，这并没有阻止失业率的上升。但当时它并没有完全抵消我们的外汇收支更加迅速恶化的影响。 $\pounds 100,000,000$$\pounds 100,000,000$£100,000,000£ 100,000,000 从广义上讲，我们的贷款支出等于增加或减少的影响 $\pounds 100,000,000$$\pounds 100,000,000$£100,000,000£ 100,000,000 以前我们没有从我们的贷款支出中得到明显的好处，因为它被我们的外汇平衡的恶化所抵消。最近我们没有从我们的外汇平衡的改善中得到明显的好处，因为它已被我们贷款支出的减少所抵消。今天，如果我们选择的话，我们第一次可以同时拥有这两个有利因素。

If these conclusions cannot be refuted，is it not advisable to act upon them？The contrary policy of endeavouring to balance the Budget by impositions， restrictions，and precautions will surely fail，because it must have the effect of diminishing the national spend－ ing power，and hence the national income．
如果这些结论无法反驳，难道不应该采取行动吗？通过强加、限制和预防来努力平衡预算的相反政策肯定会失败，因为它必然会产生削弱国民消费能力的效果。 ，从而得到国民收入。

It is the declared policy of the Government，and also of the representatives of the Empire assembled at Ottawa，to raise prices．How are we to do it？
提高物价是政府的政策，也是聚集在渥太华的帝国代表的政策。我们该怎么做呢？

To judge from some utterances of the Chancellor of the Exchequer，he has been attracted to the idea of raising the prices of commodities by restricting their supply．Now，it may well benefit the producers of a particular article to combine to restrict its output． Equally it may benefit a particular country，though at the expense of the rest of the world，to restrict the supply of a commodity which it is in a position to control．It may even，very occasionally，benefit the world as a whole to organise the restriction of output of a particular commodity，the supply of which is seriously out of balance with the supply of other things． But as an all－round remedy restriction is worse than useless．For the community as a whole it reduces de－ mand，by destroying the income of the retrenched pro－ ducers，just as much as it reduces supply．So far from being a means to diminish unemployment，it is，rather， a method of distributing more evenly what unemploy－ ment there is，at the cost of somewhat increasing it．
从财政大臣的一些言论来看，他已经被通过限制商品供应来提高商品价格的想法所吸引。现在，联合起来限制某种商品的产量可能会让特定商品的生产者受益。同样，限制其能够控制的商品的供应，也可能使某个特定国家受益，尽管这会损害世界其他国家的利益。某种商品的产量受到限制，而该商品的供给与其他商品的供给严重失衡。但作为一种全面的补救措施，限制比无用更糟糕。对于整个社会来说，它通过破坏被削减的生产者的收入来减少需求，就像它减少供应一样。它远不是一种手段。相反，为了减少失业，它是一种更均匀地分配现有失业的方法，但代价是稍微增加失业。

How，then，are we to raise prices？It may help us to think clearly，if I proceed by means of a series of very simple，but fundamental propositions．
那么，我们如何提高价格？如果我继续提出一系列非常简单但基本的命题，可能会帮助我们清晰地思考。
（1）For commodities as a whole there can be no possible means of raising their prices except by in－
（1）对于整个商品来说，除了通过以下方式提高价格之外，没有其他可能的方法：
creasing expenditure upon them more rapidly than their supply comes upon the market．
对它们的支出增加速度快于它们进入市场的供给速度。
（2）Expenditure can only be increased if the public spend a larger proportion of the incomes they already have，or if their aggregate spending power is increased in some other way．
（2）只有当公众支出其已有收入的更大比例，或者通过其他方式提高总消费能力时，支出才能增加。
（3）There are narrow limits to increasing expendi－ ture out of existing incomes，－whether by saving less or by increased personal expenditure of a capital nature．Incomes are so curtailed to－day and taxation so much increased，that many people are already，in the effort to maintain their standard of life，saving less than sound personal habits require．Anyone who can afford to spend more should be encouraged to do so， particularly if he has opportunities to spend on new capital or semi－capital objects．But it is an evasion of the magnitude of the problem to believe that we can solve it in this way．It follows，therefore，that we must aim at increasing aggregate spending power．If we can achieve this，it will partly serve to raise prices and partly to increase employment．
（3）现有收入中增加支出的限度很窄，无论是通过减少储蓄还是增加资本性质的个人支出。今天的收入如此减少，税收如此增加，以至于许多人已经，在努力维持生活水平的过程中，储蓄低于良好个人习惯的要求。应该鼓励任何有能力花更多钱的人这样做，特别是如果他有机会花在新的资本或半资本物品上。但是它是一个逃避问题的严重性，相信我们可以用这种方式解决它。因此，我们必须以提高总消费能力为目标。如果我们能做到这一点，那么它一部分会提高物价，一部分会提高消费能力。就业．
（4）Putting on one side the special case of people who can earn their incomes by actually producing gold，it is broadly true to say that aggregate spending power within a country can only be raised either（i．）by in－ creasing the loan－expenditure of the community；or （ii．）by improving the foreign balance so that a larger proportion of current expenditure again becomes in－ come in the hands of home producers．By means of public works the Labour Government－though rather half－heartedly and in adverse attendant circumstances －attempted the first．The National Government has successfully attempted the second．We have not yet tried both at once．
（4）把那些可以通过实际生产黄金来赚取收入的人这一特殊情况放在一边，一般来说，一个国家内的总消费能力只能通过增加贷款来提高（i．） －社会支出；或（ii．）通过改善外汇平衡，使经常支出的较大比例再次成为国内生产者手中的收入。通过公共工程，工党政府－尽管相当半心半意以及在不利的伴随情况下－尝试了第一个。国民政府已经成功地尝试了第二个。我们还没有同时尝试两者。
（5）But there is a great difference between the two methods，inasmuch as only the first is valid for the world as a whole．The second method merely means that one country is withdrawing employment and spending power from the rest of the world．For when one country improves its foreign balance，it follows that the foreign balance of some other country is diminished．Thus we cannot increase total output in this way or raise world prices，unless，as a by－product， it serves to increase loan－expenditure by strengthening confidence in a financial centre such as Great Britain and so making it a more ready lender both at home and abroad．
（5）但这两种方法有很大区别，因为只有第一种方法对整个世界有效。第二种方法仅仅意味着一个国家正在从世界其他国家撤回就业和消费能力。因此，我们不能以这种方式增加总产出或提高世界价格，除非作为副产品，它有助于增加贷款支出增强人们对金融中心的信心例如英国，因此使其成为国内外更愿意提供贷款的国家。

Currency depreciation and tariffs were weapons which this country had in hand until recently as a means of self－protection．A moment came when we were compelled to use them，and they have served us well．But competitive currency depreciations and competitive tariffs，and more artificial means of improving an individual country＇s foreign balance such as exchange restrictions，import prohibitions，and quotas，help no one and injure each，if they are applied all round．
货币贬值和关税是这个国家直到最近才作为自我保护手段所拥有的武器。到了我们被迫使用它们的时刻，它们对我们很有帮助。但是竞争性货币贬值和竞争性关税等等改善个别国家的外汇平衡的人为手段，如外汇限制、进口禁令和配额，如果全面实施，对任何人都没有帮助，反而会损害双方。

We are left，therefore，with the broad conclusion that there is no effective means of raising world prices ex－ cept by increasing loan－expenditure throughout the world．It was，indeed，the collapse of expenditure financed out of loans advanced by the United States， for use both at home and abroad，which was the chief agency in starting the slump．
因此，我们得出一个广泛的结论：除了增加全世界的贷款支出之外，没有任何有效的手段来提高世界价格。事实上，美国预支贷款的支出大幅下降。 ，供国内外使用，这是引发经济衰退的主要机构。

A number of popular remedies are rightly popular because they tend to facilitate loan－expenditure．But there are several stages in the task of increasing loan－ expenditure；and，if there is a breakdown at any one日描全能王 创建
许多流行的补救措施很受欢迎，因为它们往往会促进贷款支出。但是增加贷款支出的任务有几个阶段；并且，如果任何一个出现故障，日描全能王创建
of them，we shall fail to attain our object．I must ask the reader，therefore，to be patient with a further attempt at orderly analysis．
因此，我必须要求读者耐心地进一步尝试进行有序分析。
（1）The first necessity is that bank－credit should be cheap and abundant．This is only possible if each Central Bank is freed from anxiety by feeling itself to possess adequate reserves of international money．The loss of confidence in bank balances held in leading financial centres as constituting international money for this purpose，has greatly aggravated the shortage of reserves．So has the accumulation of a large pro－ portion of the world＇s gold in a few Central Banks．On the other hand，we all welcome an increased output of the gold mines or a reduction in India＇s sterile hoards， because the quantity of reserve money is thus increased． The devaluation of national currencies in terms of gold is another remedy belonging to this category．Or，again， the abandonment of rigid gold parities may help the case，since a Central Bank which can，if necessary， relieve a strain by allowing the foreign exchanges to move against it，will be satisfied with a smaller reserve of international money．The abatement of the legal proportion of international money，which a bank must hold against its note issue，might also help on a minor scale． 重试    错误原因

But this is only the first stage．In the early phase of recovery there is not much loan－expenditure which can be safely financed by short－term bank－credit．The rôle of bank－credit is to finance the restoration of working capital after business recovery has definitely set in．In ordinary times we were able to rely on the first stage leading automatically to the subsequent stages．But not in the conditions of to－day．
但这只是第一阶段。在复苏初期，没有多少贷款支出可以安全地通过短期银行信贷融资。银行信贷的作用是为企业恢复运营后的营运资金提供资金。复苏肯定已经开始。平时我们能够依靠第一阶段自动进入后续阶段。但在今天的情况下不行。
（2）The second stage，therefore，must be reached，at扫描全能王 创建
（2）因此，必须达到第二阶段，即扫描全能王创造
which the long－term rate of interest is low for all reasonably sound borrowers．This requires a combina－ tion of manœuvres by the Government and the Central Bank in the shape of open－market operations by the Bank，of well－judged Conversion Schemes by the Treas－ ury，and of a restoration of financial confidence by a Budget policy approved by public opinion and in other ways．It is at this stage that a certain dilemma exists； since it may be true，for psychological reasons，that a temporary reduction of loan－expenditure plays a neces－ sary part in effecting the transition to a lower long－ term rate of interest．Since，however，the whole object of the policy is to promote loan－expenditure，we must obviously be careful not to continue its temporary curtailment a day longer than we need．
对于所有合理稳健的借款人来说，长期利率都处于较低水平。这需要政府和中央银行结合起来，采取公开市场操作的形式，通过银行制定经过深思熟虑的转换计划财政部，并通过公众舆论批准的预算政策和其他方式恢复金融信心。正是在这个阶段，存在一定的困境；因为出于心理原因，临时削减可能是真的。的贷款支出对于实现向较低长期利率的过渡起着必要的作用。然而，由于政策的全部目标是促进贷款支出，我们显然必须小心，不要继续其暂时的政策。削减的时间比我们需要的时间多了一天。

A few countries have reached the first stage．But we alone have reached the second stage．It is a great achievement of the Treasury and the Bank of England to have effected so successfully a transition which France and the United States，for whom the task was， until recently，much easier，have bungled so badly．
一些国家已经达到了第一阶段。但我们独自达到了第二阶段。财政部和英格兰银行如此成功地实现了法国和美国的过渡，这是一项伟大的成就，而法国和美国的任务是，直到最近，容易多了，却搞砸了。
（3）But there remains a third stage．For even when we have reached the second stage，it is unlikely that private enterprise will，on its own initiative，undertake new loan－expenditure on a sufficient scale．Business enterprise will not seek to expand until after profits have begun to recover．Increased working capital will not be required until after output is increasing．More－ over，in modern communities a very large proportion of our normal programmes of loan－expenditure are undertaken by public and semi－public bodies．The new loan－expenditure which trade and industry require in a year is comparatively small even in good times． Building，transport，and public utilities are responsible
（3）但还存在第三阶段。因为即使达到了第二阶段，私营企业也不太可能主动承担足够规模的新贷款支出。企业不会寻求扩张直到利润开始恢复之后。直到产出增加之后才需要增加营运资本。此外，在现代社会中，我们正常的贷款支出计划的很大一部分是由公共和半公共机构承担的。新的贷款——即使在景气时期，工商业一年所需的支出也相对较小。建筑、交通和公用事业负责

扫描全能王 创建扫描全能王创作
at all times for a very large proportion of current loan－ expenditure．
任何时候都占当前贷款支出的很大一部分。

Thus the first step has to be taken on the initiative of public authority；and it probably has to be on a large scale and organised with determination，if it is to be sufficient to break the vicious circle and to stem the progressive deterioration，as firm after firm throws up the sponge and ceases to produce at a loss in the seemingly vain hope that perseverance will be rewarded．
因此，第一步必须由公共当局主动采取；如果要足以打破恶性循环并阻止逐步恶化，它可能必须是大规模的、有决心的组织。当公司扔掉海绵并停止生产后，他们似乎徒劳地希望坚持不懈的努力会得到回报。

Some cynics，who have followed the argument thus far，conclude that nothing except a war can bring a major slump to its conclusion．For hitherto war has been the only object of governmental loan－expenditure on a large scale which governments have considered respectable．In all the issues of peace they are timid， over－cautious，half－hearted，without perseverance or determination，thinking of a loan as a liability and not as a link in the transformation of the community＇s surplus resources，which will otherwise be wasted，into useful capital assets．
迄今为止，一些愤世嫉俗的人得出的结论是，除了战争之外，没有什么能带来经济的严重衰退。因为迄今为止，战争一直是政府认为值得尊敬的大规模政府贷款支出的唯一目的。在一切和平问题上，他们都胆怯、过分谨慎、三心二意，没有毅力或决心，把贷款视为一种负债，而不是转化社会盈余的一个环节资源，否则将被浪费，转化为有用的资本资产。
I hope that our Government will show that this country can be energetic even in the tasks of peace．It should not be difficult to perceive that $\mathbf{1}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{,}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}$$\mathbf{1}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{,}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}$100,000\mathbf{1 0 0 , 0 0 0} houses are a national asset and $1,000,000$$1,000,000$1,000,0001,000,000 unemployed men a national liability．
我希望我们的政府能够表明，这个国家即使在和平任务中也能充满活力。不难看出， $\mathbf{1}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{,}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}$$\mathbf{1}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{,}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}\mathbf{0}$100,000\mathbf{1 0 0 , 0 0 0} 房屋是国家资产 $1,000,000$$1,000,000$1,000,0001,000,000 失业者是国家的责任。
（4）Yet if we are to raise world prices，which is our theme，there is yet a fourth stage．Loan－expenditure must spread its beneficent influence round the world． How to assist that will be the subject of the next chapter．
（4）然而，如果我们要提高世界价格，这是我们的主题，那么还有第四个阶段。贷款支出必须在全世界范围内传播其有益的影响。如何提供帮助将是下一章的主题。

A proposal for the world economic conference
世界经济会议提案
We have reached the conclusion that there is no means of raising world prices except by an increase of loan－ expenditure throughout the world．How to achieve this should，I suggest，be the central theme of the World Economic Conference．There are，I think，three，and only three，possible lines along which we can lend assistance．
我们得出的结论是，除了增加全世界的贷款支出之外，没有其他办法可以提高世界价格。我认为，如何实现这一目标应该成为世界经济会议的中心主题。我认为，有以下几个方面： ，三个，也只有三个，我们可以提供援助的可能途径。
（1）The first，and perhaps the most obvious，means is that of direct foreign loans，in the style to which we have been accustomed in the past，from the strong financial countries，which have a favourable foreign balance or excessive reserves of gold，to the weaker， debtor countries．
（1）第一种，也许也是最明显的一种手段，是直接外国贷款，以我们过去习惯的方式，来自拥有有利外汇平衡或过多黄金储备的金融强国。 ，对较弱的债务国。
The time may be coming for a return to this tradi－ tional policy，as opportunity offers．But it would be chimerical to suppose that such foreign loans can play a large part to－day in bringing about recovery．Those countries which are best able to make them are least likely to do so．Nor is it reasonable to expect private investors to assume new risks of this kind，when those which they have already assumed are turning out so badly．
随着机会的出现，回归这一传统政策的时机可能即将到来。但是，如果认为此类外国贷款能够在当今的经济复苏中发挥重要作用，那就太不切实际了。那些最有能力的国家使他们最不可能这样做。当私人投资者已经承担的风险结果如此糟糕时，期望私人投资者承担此类新风险也是不合理的。
（2）The second，and more promising，means is for the stronger financial countries to increase loan－ex－ penditure at home，on the lines recommended in Chapter II above．For such expenditure will be twice blessed．In so far as it sets up a stream of expenditure on
（2）第二个也是更有希望的手段是金融实力较强的国家按照上面第二章建议的方针增加国内的贷款支出。因为这样的支出将得到双倍的祝福。就其规定而言增加支出
home－produced goods，the favourable repercussions of the initialloan－expenditure on employment will be multi－ plied．In so far as it leads to expenditure on imported goods，it will set up similar favourable repercussions abroad，and will strengthen the position of the coun－ tries from which we buy，both to make reciprocal pur－ chases and also to augment their own loan－expenditure． It will have set the ball rolling．
国内生产的商品，初始贷款支出对就业的有利影响将成倍增加。只要它导致进口商品的支出，它将在国外产生类似的有利影响，并将加强国家的地位－ 试图从我们那里购买，既是为了互惠购买，也是为了增加他们自己的贷款支出。它将让事情顺利进行。

It may be better，therefore，to use our available re－ sources to finance the additional imports，to which a bold policy of loan－expenditure at home is likely to lead， than to make foreign loans．This will be just as beneficial to the outside world，and decidedly more healthy than further additions to international indebtedness．
因此，利用我们现有的资源为额外的进口提供资金可能比发放外国贷款更好，而国内大胆的贷款支出政策很可能会导致这种情况。这同样有利于美国的发展。外部世界，而且显然比进一步增加国际债务更为健康。
（3）Yet，once again，it seems obvious that we are dis－ cussing，so far，remedies of which the quantitative effect is hopelessly disproportionate to the problem of raising world prices．I see no reliable prospect of a sufficient rise in world prices within a reasonable time， except as the result of a substantial，and more or less simultaneous，relief of taxation and increase of loan－ expenditure in many different countries．We should attach great importance to the simultaneity of the movement towards increased expenditure．For the pressure on its foreign balance，which each country fears as the result of increasing its own loan－expendi－ ture，will cancel out if other countries are pursuing the same policy at the same time．Isolated action may be imprudent．General action has no dangers whatever．
（3）然而，到目前为止，显然我们正在讨论的补救措施的数量效果与提高世界价格的问题完全不成比例。我看不到世界价格充分上涨的可靠前景在合理的时间内，除了由于许多不同国家大幅度的、或多或少同时的税收减免和贷款支出的增加之外。因为每个国家都担心自身贷款支出增加所带来的对外收支压力，如果其他国家同时推行同样的政策，这种压力将会被抵消。孤立的行动可能是不谨慎的。行动没有任何危险。

We are now advanced a stage further in our argu－ ment．We have reached the point where combined international action is of the essence of policy．We have reached，that is to say，the field and scope of the World Economic Conference．The task of this Conference，as I
现在我们的论点又前进了一个阶段。我们已经达到了联合国际行动是政策本质的地步。也就是说，我们已经达到了世界经济会议的领域和范围。任务本次会议，正如我

PROPOSAL FOR WORLD ECONOMIC CONFERENCE 25
世界经济会议提案 25
see it，is to devise some sort of joint action of a kind to allay the anxieties of Central Banks and to relieve the tension on their reserves，or the fear and expecta－ tion of tension．This would enable many more coun－ tries to reach the first of the stages which I distin－ guished in Chapter III－the stage at which bank－ credit is cheap and abundant．We cannot，by inter－ national action，make the horses drink．That is their domestic affair．But we can provide them with water． To revive the parched world by releasing a million rivu－ lets of spending power is the primary task of the World Conference． 重试    错误原因
For the Conference to occupy itself with pious re－ solutions concerning the abatement of tariffs，quotas， and exchange restrictions will be a waste of time．In so far as these things are not the expression of de－ liberate national or imperial policies，they have been adopted reluctantly as a means of self－protection，and are symptoms，not causes，of the tension on the foreign exchanges．It is dear to the heart of Conferences to pass pious resolutions deploring symptoms，whilst leav－ ing the disease untouched．It should be the rôle of the British Government to make a reality of this forth－ coming Conference by concrete proposals which would go to the root of the disease．
对于会议来说，热心于关于削减关税、配额和外汇限制的虔诚决议将是浪费时间。只要这些事情不是故意的国家或帝国政策的表达，它们就会议的核心是通过虔诚的决议谴责症状，同时留下疾病，这是会议的核心。英国政府的作用应该是通过具体的提案使即将召开的会议成为现实，这些提案将触及疾病的根源。

There are certain preliminaries which must be ac－ complished before positive remedies will have a fair chance．We all agree that the settlement of War Debts and of Reparations are，first of all，indispensable．For these are of primary importance in creating fear of acute tension on the foreign exchanges．But have we a positive scheme of action wherewith to seize the op－ portunity which the settlement of these issues would create？ 重试    错误原因

No remedies can be quickly efficacious which do not allay the anxieties of Treasuries and Central Banks throughout the world by supplying them with more adequate reserves of international money．There is a considerable variety of schemes which can be devised with this end in view，having a close family resemblance to one another．After much private discussion and borrowing the ideas of others，I am convinced that the following scheme is the best one．If other variants command more support，that would be a reason for preferring them． 重试    错误原因
There are certain conditions which any scheme for increasing the reserves of international money should satisfy．In the first place，the additional reserves should be based on gold．For whilst gold is rapidly ceasing to be national money，it is becoming，even more exclu－ sively than before，the international money most com－ monly held in reserve and used to meet a foreign drain． In the second place，it should not be of an eleemosynary character，but should be available，not only to the ex－ ceptionally needy，but to all participating countries in accordance with a general formula．Indeed there are few，if any，countries left to－day which are so entirely without anxiety that they would not welcome some strengthening of their position．In the third place，there should be an elasticity in the quantity of the addi－ tional reserves outstanding，so that they would operate， not as a net permanent addition to the world＇s mone－ tary supply，but as a balancing factor to be released when prices are abnormally low as at present，and to be withdrawn again if prices were to be rising too much． These conditions can be satisfied as follows：
任何增加国际货币储备的计划都应该满足一定的条件。首先，额外的储备应该以黄金为基础。因为虽然黄金正在迅速不再是国家货币，但它正在变得更加排他性。与以前相比，国际货币最常作为储备持有并用于应对外国资金流失。其次，它不应该是一种慈善性质的，而应该不仅向特别需要帮助的国家提供，而且按照一个通用公式向所有参与国提供。事实上，剩下的国家（如果有的话）也很少了。第三，额外未偿还储备金的数量应该有弹性，以便它们能够运作，而不是作为净永久添加世界货币供应量，但作为平衡因素，当物价像目前这样异常低时，将被释放；如果物价上涨太多，则将再次撤回。这些条件可以满足如下：
（i）There should be set up an international authority for the issue of gold－notes，of which the face value
（i）应设立一个国际机构来发行金币，金币的面值
would be expressed in terms of the gold content of the U．S．dollar．
将用美元的黄金含量来表示。
（ii）These notes would be issuable up to a maximum of $\mathrm{\$}5,000,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}5,000,000,000$$5,000,000,000\$ 5,000,000,000 ，and would be obtainable by the participating countries against an equal face value of the gold－bonds of their governments，up to a maximum quota for each country． 重试    错误原因
（iii）The proportionate quota of each country would be based on some such formula as the amount of gold which it held in reserve at some recent normal date， e．g．，at the end of 1928，provided that no individual quota should exceed $\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$450,000,000\$ 450,000,000 ，and with power to the governing board to modify the rigidity of this formula where special reasons could be given for not adhering to it strictly．（Some provision，for example， would be required for silver－using countries．）The effect of this formula would be that the quota of each country would add to its reserves an amount approximately equal to the gold which it held in 1928，subject to the above maximum proviso．The detailed allocation for each country is given in an Appendix to this chapter．
（iii）每个国家的比例配额将基于一些公式，例如最近某个正常日期（例如 1928 年底）所持有的黄金储备量，前提是单个配额不得超过 $\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$450,000,000\$ 450,000,000 ，并且如果可以给出不严格遵守的特殊原因，理事会有权修改该公式的刚性。（例如，白银使用国家将需要一些规定。）该公式的效果将会是每个国家的配额将在其储备中增加约等于其 1928 年持有的黄金的数量，但须遵守上述最大限制条件。每个国家的详细分配在本章的附录中给出。
（iv）Each participating government would under－ take to pass legislation providing that these gold－notes would be acceptable as the equivalent of gold，except that they should not enter into the active circulation but would be held only by Treasuries，Central Banks， or in the reserves against domestic note－issues．
（iv）各参与国政府将承诺通过立法，规定这些金币可以作为黄金的等价物被接受，但它们不应进入活跃流通，而只能由财政部、中央银行或国内票据发行准备金。
（v）The governing board of the institution would be elected by the participating governments，who would be free to delegate their powers to their Central Banks， each having a voting power in proportion to its quota．
（v）该机构的理事会将由参与国政府选举产生，政府可以自由地将权力委托给各自的中央银行，每个政府都按照其配额比例拥有投票权。
（vi）The gold－bonds would carry a rate of interest， nominal or very low in the first instance，which could be changed from time to time by the governing board 重试    错误原因
subject to（viii）below．They would be repayable at any time by the government responsible for them，or on notice given by the governing board subject to（viii） below．
它们将由对其负责的政府随时偿还，或根据管理委员会发出的通知，根据下文第（viii）项的规定进行偿还。
（vii）The interest，after meeting expenses，would be retained in gold as a guarantee fund．In addition，each participating government would guarantee any ulti－ mate loss，arising through a default，in proportion to the amount of its maximum quota．
（vii）支付费用后的利息将保留在黄金中作为担保基金。此外，各参与国政府将按照其最高配额的比例对因违约而产生的任何最终损失提供担保。
（viii）The governing board would be directed to use their discretion to modify the volume of the note－ issue or the rate of interest on the bonds，solely with a view to avoiding，so far as possible，a rise in the gold price－level of primary products entering into inter－ national trade above some agreed norm between the present level and that of 1928－perhaps the level of 1930.
（viii）董事会将有权酌情修改票据发行量或债券利率，其唯一目的是尽可能避免金价上涨。进入国际贸易的初级产品水平高于当前水平与 1928 年水平（也许是 1930 年水平）之间的某个商定标准。

Under the formula on p． 27 above for distributing the $\mathrm{\$}5,000,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}5,000,000,000$$5,000,000,000\$ 5,000,000,000 gold－notes in proportion to the gold held in reserve by each country at the end of 1928 subject to a maximum of $\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$450,000,000\$ 450,000,000 to any one country，the allocation would work out as follows：
根据p．的公式． 27 上面用于分发 $\mathrm{\$}5,000,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}5,000,000,000$$5,000,000,000\$ 5,000,000,000 黄金——按1928年底各国储备黄金的比例发行的纸币，最高限额为 $\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$\mathrm{\$}450,000,000$$450,000,000\$ 450,000,000 对于任何一个国家，分配方式如下：

No country would have injustice done to it by this particular choice of date except Chile，whose case might deserve special con－ sideration，and，to a lesser extent，Greece and Canada．If we were to take the highest figure held at the end of any year from 1925 to 1928，the following would be the only changes in the above total：
除了智利（其情况可能值得特别考虑）以及希腊和加拿大（在较小程度上）之外，没有哪个国家会因为这一特定日期的选择而对它造成不公正。如果我们要采用年底的最高数字从 1925 年到 1928 年的任何一年，上述总数中唯一的变化如下：

扫描全能王 创建扫描全能王创作