Trump Said Trade Deals Would Come Easy. Japan Is Proving Him Wrong.
特朗普曾称贸易协议唾手可得 日本正在证明他错了

But the Japanese officials stood their ground. From the start, they had told the Americans they wouldn’t agree to any deal that preserves Trump’s 25% automotive tariff, according to people familiar with the conversations. That impasse continues. 
但日本官员坚持立场。据熟悉会谈情况的人士称，日方从一开始就告知美方，不会接受任何保留特朗普 25%汽车关税的协议。这一僵局持续至今。

On Monday, Trump appeared to cut off talks with Tokyo. Japan “won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” he posted on Truth Social, despite Japan importing hundreds of thousands of tons of U.S. rice annually under a WTO agreement. Trump added that “we’ll just be sending them a letter”—a reference to his repeated pledges to dictate to trading partners what they would have to pay the U.S.
周一，特朗普似乎切断了与东京的谈判。他在 Truth Social 发文称日本"不买我们的稻米，却面临严重大米短缺"，尽管根据世贸组织协议，日本每年从美国进口数十万吨大米。特朗普补充说"我们只需给他们发封信函"——这呼应了他多次宣称要单方面要求贸易伙伴向美国支付款项的立场。

In a Fox News interview the previous day, Trump had suggested what such a letter to Japan might say: “Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story. You’re going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars, you know? So we give Japan no cars. They won’t take our cars.”
在前一天接受福克斯新闻采访时，特朗普曾暗示这封致日本信函可能这样写道："尊敬的日本先生，情况是这样的。你们汽车要缴纳 25%关税明白吗？所以我们不向日本出口汽车。他们反正也不买我们的车。"

After slapping so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries on what Trump dubbed “Liberation Day”—then putting them on hold—the White House vowed to strike a spate of trade deals before July 9. The standoff with Japan shows how hard that is turning out to be. 
在特朗普所谓的"解放日"对数十个国家加征所谓对等关税（随后又暂缓实施）后，白宫誓言要在 7 月 9 日前达成一系列贸易协议。与日本的对峙局面显示出这项目标实施起来有多困难。

Administration officials attempting to negotiate multiple deals have at times contradicted one another about goals and timelines, and Trump has further muddied the picture with references to sending letters. Adding to the uncertainty is an appeals court hearing set for late July over the legality of the emergency authority Trump used to impose the so-called reciprocal tariffs.
试图协商多项协议的政府官员在目标和时间表上不时相互矛盾，而特朗普提及发送信函的做法更让局面混乱不清。加剧不确定性的是，上诉法院定于 7 月下旬就特朗普实施所谓对等关税所动用的紧急权力合法性举行听证会。

Even the tariff deadline is in question. On Friday, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated some countries could get an extension, Trump injected further uncertainty. “We can do whatever we want,” he said in a news conference. “We can extend it, we can make it shorter. I’d like to make it shorter.” On Tuesday, Trump said he’s “not thinking about” extending the deadline.
就连关税期限也存在变数。上周五，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特暗示某些国家可能获得延期后，特朗普又增添了更多不确定性。他在新闻发布会上表示："我们可以随心所欲，可以延长期限，也可以缩短期限。我更倾向于缩短。"周二特朗普又称自己"没考虑过"延长截止日期。

The chaotic situation has left Japan and other countries bewildered, unsure of what the White House wants or when they have to deliver a deal. Thus far, the administration has cut only a limited trade agreement with the U.K. and struck a tariff truce with China, and on Wednesday, Trump announced he had struck a deal with Vietnam. Hanging over the entire process is Trump’s earlier promise to restore the Liberation Day tariffs on countries that don’t do deals—potentially triggering another round of market chaos.
这种混乱局面令日本等国感到困惑，不确定白宫究竟想要什么，也不清楚何时必须达成协议。迄今为止，美国政府仅与英国签署了有限的贸易协定，与中国达成了关税休战协议。周三特朗普宣布已与越南达成协议。整个谈判过程中始终笼罩着特朗普先前的威胁——将对未达成协议的国家恢复"解放日关税"，这可能引发新一轮市场动荡。

White House spokesman Kush Desai said the administration “continues to work around the clock with our trading partners to renegotiate lopsided trade deals that have left American industries and workers behind,” and that the White House is on the brink of securing more deals.
白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，政府"正昼夜不停地与贸易伙伴重新谈判那些让美国产业和工人落后的不平衡贸易协议"，并称白宫即将达成更多协议。

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.), a close Trump ally who said he has discussed the negotiations with trade representative Greer, said in an interview that deals might take more time than the administration has let on.
特朗普的亲密盟友、北达科他州共和党参议员凯文·克莱默在接受采访时表示，协议可能需要比政府透露的更长时间。克莱默称自己曾与贸易代表格里尔讨论过相关谈判。

“It’s easy to get the framework together, and that’s where they are, but in terms of the actual details, it takes a long time,” Cramer said, adding that he has confidence in the negotiation process. “Maybe they set a little bit of an ambitious expectation.”
"敲定框架很容易，他们现在就在这个阶段，但涉及具体细节时就需要很长时间了，"克莱默说，并表示对谈判过程有信心。"或许他们设定的预期有点过于乐观。"

Early optimism  早期的乐观情绪

In April, Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior trade and manufacturing adviser, said the administration could land 90 deals in 90 days. After the U.S. struck the limited agreement with the U.K. in early May, Trump said he believed the deals would start flowing at a rapid pace. 
4 月，特朗普的高级贸易和制造业顾问彼得·纳瓦罗表示，政府能在 90 天内达成 90 项协议。5 月初美国与英国达成有限协议后，特朗普称他相信协议将开始快速涌现。

Administration officials looked to Japan to keep the momentum going. Tokyo had signed a trade deal with the U.S. during Trump’s first term. U.S. officials believed Japan had an incentive to reach an agreement: A favorable deal could bolster the minority government of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. 
政府官员寄望日本延续这一势头。东京曾在特朗普首个任期内与美国签署贸易协议。美方官员认为日本有达成协议的动机：一项有利的协议能巩固日本首相石破茂的少数派政府。

The U.S. complicated its negotiating position with Japan and other countries by increasing tariffs as talks progressed, such as in June when Trump doubled global steel tariffs with no warning for trading partners. Other so-called national-security tariffs on products such as lumber, semiconductors and critical minerals remain in the planning process, making some nations hesitant to strike deals before they are unveiled. The administration’s bellicose approach also became a political issue in some countries it was negotiating with, encouraging resistance to the U.S. rather than cooperation.
美国在谈判过程中不断提高关税，使与日本等国的谈判立场复杂化。例如 6 月份特朗普在毫无预警的情况下将全球钢铁关税提高一倍。其他针对木材、半导体和关键矿物等产品的所谓"国家安全关税"仍在筹划中，导致一些国家在政策明朗前不愿达成协议。美国政府这种咄咄逼人的谈判方式还在部分谈判对象国引发政治争议，反而激起这些国家抵制而非配合美国。

“We sometimes forget that other countries have politics, too, and trade has a way of spurring on domestic politics because of the direct and indirect effects it has on particular constituencies,” said Michael Froman, U.S. trade representative under former President Barack Obama and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations.
"我们有时会忘记其他国家也有自己的政治考量，而贸易往往会激化国内政治，因为它对特定群体产生直接和间接的影响，"前总统奥巴马任内的美国贸易代表、现任外交关系委员会主席迈克尔·弗罗曼表示。

Since Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on April 9, the leader of Japan’s negotiating team, Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, has visited Washington seven times. His team has been in near constant contact with staffers for Bessent and Greer, who are leading the U.S. talks together with Lutnick.
自特朗普 4 月 9 日暂停对等关税以来，日本谈判代表团团长、经济再生大臣赤泽亮生已七次访问华盛顿。其团队几乎与贝森特和格里尔的幕僚保持不间断联系，这两人正与鲁特尼克共同领导美方谈判。

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs for Japan had been set at 24% before the pause—far above the roughly 1.5% average tariffs that had been in place, according to the Richmond Fed. Besides seeking a reduction to those, Japanese officials have said repeatedly they cannot agree to any deal that doesn’t reduce industry-specific tariffs, particularly after the U.K. received some relief from steel and auto tariffs. In June, after another round of talks, Akazawa said all U.S. levies must be reduced in any deal.
根据里士满联储数据，特朗普此前对日本实施的对等关税税率定为 24%——远高于原先约 1.5%的平均关税水平。除要求降低这些关税外，日本官员多次强调不能接受任何不削减行业特定关税的协议，尤其是在英国获得钢铁和汽车关税减免之后。六月又一轮谈判后，赤泽亮生明确表示任何协议都必须包含全面降低美国关税的内容。

Privately, some Japanese officials worry that agreeing to a deal that doesn’t reduce or eliminate both the reciprocal tariffs and industry-specific duties might be received so poorly in Tokyo that it could topple the Ishiba government, which is facing a high-stakes election to the Japanese parliament’s upper house on July 20. Any deal that reduces Japanese protections for its prized domestic rice industry could also spell electoral trouble for the Ishiba government. 
一些日本官员私下担心，如果达成的协议既未降低也未取消互惠关税和行业特定关税，可能在东京引起强烈不满，甚至导致石破茂政府倒台。该政府正面临 7 月 20 日日本参议院选举这一重大考验。任何削弱日本对珍贵国内稻米产业保护力度的协议，都可能给石破茂政府带来选举危机。

In June, Prime Minister Ishiba flew to Canada for a leadership summit of the Group of Seven industrialized nations hoping to force a compromise, but a meeting between Trump and him yielded no breakthrough.
今年 6 月，首相石破茂飞赴加拿大参加七国集团领导人峰会，希望促成妥协方案，但他与特朗普的会晤并未取得突破性进展。

“There are still points where our views remain divided,” Ishiba told reporters. “Automobiles are a major national interest…and we will continue to do everything we can to protect such interests.”
"双方仍存在意见分歧之处，"石破茂向记者表示。"汽车产业关乎重大国家利益……我们将继续竭尽全力维护这些利益。"

A senior lawmaker in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party said that some of Ishiba’s associates are arguing that he should hold firm to his demand for tariff relief in the hope that Trump backs down, perhaps if financial markets grow unsettled as the end of the 90-day tariff pause nears.
日本执政党自民党的一位资深议员表示，石破茂的部分盟友主张他应坚持要求关税减免，寄望于特朗普可能让步——或许在 90 天暂停加征关税期限临近、金融市场动荡加剧时。

A senior Trump administration official said the president’s advisers have discussed the possibility of implementing further tariffs on Japan if a deal can’t be reached. The two sides appear to remain far apart on key issues like the auto tariffs, said people with knowledge of the talks. As of late June, they hadn’t even decided whether any deal would include those levies or focus only on the reciprocal tariffs. 
一位特朗普政府高级官员表示，如果无法达成协议，总统的顾问们已讨论过对日本实施进一步关税的可能性。知情人士透露，双方在汽车关税等关键议题上仍存在巨大分歧。截至六月底，两国甚至尚未确定协议内容是否包含这些关税，还是仅聚焦于互惠性关税。

An official from Greer’s office told The Wall Street Journal the administration is prioritizing negotiations with trading partners who have presented more serious offers than Japan has.
格里尔办公室的一位官员向《华尔街日报》表示，美国政府正优先考虑与那些提出比日本更实质性方案的贸易伙伴进行谈判。

Mounting difficulties  日益加剧的困境

Canada and the U.S. have yet to reach a deal after Trump doubled tariffs on the country’s steel industry without warning in June. A U.S. official familiar with a G-7 meeting between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said each team has more work to do to even come close to a deal, with differences ranging from Canada’s digital-services tax to its tariffs on dairy products. 
自特朗普六月份毫无预警地对加拿大钢铁行业加征双倍关税以来，两国至今未能达成协议。一位熟悉特朗普与加拿大总理马克·卡尼七国集团会谈的美方官员表示，从加拿大数字服务税到乳制品关税等分歧领域，双方团队仍需付出更多努力才能接近达成协议。

On Friday, Trump said he cut off negotiations with the Canadian government and that he would notify the nation within a week about the tariffs he would impose. After Canadian officials on Sunday scrapped a plan to implement the digital-services tax, the two countries announced they would restart negotiations.  
周五，特朗普表示已中止与加拿大政府的谈判，并将在本周内通知该国将加征的关税。在加拿大官员周日取消实施数字服务税的计划后，两国宣布将重启谈判。

The U.S. and South Korea are redoubling negotiating efforts after a new government took power in Seoul last month. South Korea wants relief from tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum. Its proposed regulations on U.S. e-commerce firms doing business in South Korea have drawn the ire of Greer and American firms such as Google and Coupang, further complicating negotiations. 
随着韩国新政府上月上台，美韩两国正加紧谈判进程。韩方希望获得汽车、钢铁和铝制品关税减免。而该国针对在韩运营的美国电商企业提出的监管方案，已引发美国贸易代表戴琪及谷歌、Coupang 等美企的不满，使谈判局势更趋复杂。

U.S. negotiators raised the digital trade issue with South Korea’s new trade negotiator, Yeo Han-koo, when he visited Washington in late June, said people with knowledge of the talks, but a deal isn’t imminent. 
知情人士透露，6 月下旬韩国新任贸易谈判代表吕翰九访美期间，美方谈判代表曾就数字贸易问题与其交涉，但短期内难以达成协议。

Elsewhere in Asia, the U.S. is demanding that nations take a hard line against China. The White House wants Southeast Asian nations in particular to prevent China from shipping goods to the U.S. through their countries, to stop Chinese companies from setting up manufacturing and export operations in their countries, and to set their own tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese goods, according to people with knowledge of the talks. 
在亚洲其他地区，美国正要求各国对华采取强硬立场。据知情人士称，白宫尤其希望东南亚国家能阻止中国通过其境内向美国转运货物，制止中企在当地设立制造及出口业务，并对中国商品自主设置关税和贸易限制。

In the newly announced Vietnam deal, Trump said, goods from other countries that pass through Vietnam on their way to the U.S. would pay 40% tariffs, while those from the country itself will face 20% tariffs.
在新宣布的越南协议中，特朗普表示，途经越南转运至美国的他国商品将面临 40%的关税，而越南本土商品则需缴纳 20%的关税。

Other Southeast Asian nations are balking at being forced to choose between the U.S. and China, making any deals on those issues unlikely in the short term. One Asian economic official said the U.S. demands would be difficult to meet, given that the export-led economies in the region are so entwined with both the U.S. and China.
其他东南亚国家不愿被迫在中美之间选边站，使得短期内就这些问题达成协议的可能性微乎其微。一位亚洲经济官员表示，考虑到该地区出口导向型经济体与中美两国深度交织，美方要求将难以满足。

The administration has appeared to make progress with the European Union, but domestic political considerations on the continent threaten to hamper Trump’s goals. After the Journal reported on a draft “agreement on reciprocal trade” setting out possible EU concessions on a range of policy issues, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pushed back, saying certain topics legislated by the EU are “absolutely untouchable.”
特朗普政府似乎在与欧盟的谈判中取得进展，但欧洲大陆的国内政治因素可能阻碍其目标实现。在《华尔街日报》报道了一份涉及欧盟可能在一系列政策问题上作出让步的"互惠贸易协定"草案后，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩予以回击，称欧盟立法涉及的某些议题"绝对不容触碰"。

She said the two sides discussed tariff lines, nontariff barriers such as standards and norms, and purchases the EU might make. “But where it is the sovereign decision-making process in the European Union and its member states that is affected, this is too far,” she said.
她表示双方讨论了关税细目、标准规范等非关税壁垒以及欧盟可能进行的采购。"但当涉及欧盟及其成员国主权决策程序时，这就越界了，"冯德莱恩强调道。

Even some Republicans are growing frustrated with the White House’s negotiating strategy. During a recent Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.) asked, “Are you or are you not pursuing reciprocity?” when Lutnick said he wouldn’t agree to a hypothetical deal with Vietnam that would cancel out all tariffs and trade barriers in both countries. 
就连部分共和党人也对白宫的谈判策略日渐不满。在近期参议院拨款委员会听证会上，路易斯安那州共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪质问："你们到底追不追求互惠？"当时拉特尼克表示，他不会同意与越南达成一项假设性协议，取消两国间所有关税和贸易壁垒。

Kennedy later said: “I was confused more after the hearing than before about their negotiating strategy here.”
肯尼迪后来表示："听证会后我对他们的谈判策略反而更加困惑了。"

Write to Gavin Bade at gavin.bade@wsj.com and Brian Schwartz at brian.schwartz@wsj.com
致信加文·巴德（邮箱：gavin.bade@wsj.com）和布莱恩·施瓦茨（邮箱：brian.schwartz@wsj.com）