Hong Kong Has All But Abandoned the Dollar Peg
香港几乎放弃了与美元挂钩的政策

Interest rates in Hong Kong have been eerily low, raising the question of whether the city’s dollar peg is now in name only.
香港的利率一直异常低迷，引发了一个问题：香港的联系汇率制度是否已经名存实亡。

Hong Kong surrendered its monetary autonomy decades ago, thanks to a unique mechanism that restricts its currency fluctuation to a narrow band of 7.75 and 7.85 per dollar. That means the city’s borrowing costs move in lockstep with those in the US, which are dictated by the Federal Reserve’s rate policies.
香港早在几十年前就放弃了货币自主权，这要归功于一种独特的机制，该机制将香港的货币波动限制在 7.75 至 7.85 港元兑 1 美元的狭窄区间内。这意味着香港的借贷成本与美国的借贷成本同步变动，而美国的借贷成本由美联储的利率政策决定。

Lately, though, currency traders have been staring at an anomaly. The one-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate, or Hibor, has collapsed since early May. The gap with the US secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is at an unprecedented level of more than three percentage points. Investors are now asking what caused this divergence and whether Hibor will stay lower for longer.
不过，近来货币交易员们一直在关注一个异常现象。自 5 月初以来，香港银行同业拆息（Hibor）一个月期利率大幅下跌。香港银行同业拆息与美国担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）之间的差距达到了前所未有的水平，超过三个百分点。投资者现在想知道是什么导致了这种差异，以及香港银行同业拆息是否会在更长时间内保持在较低水平。

The first part of the story is well understood. Last month, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased the greenback amid a global dollar rout to prevent its currency from strengthening beyond 7.75. HKMA’s balance sheet ballooned while a flood of new local money pushed down Hibor.
这部分故事的前情大家已经很清楚了。上个月，在全球美元暴跌之际，香港金融管理局购入了美元，以防止港元汇率升破 7.75。香港金管局的资产负债表随之膨胀，大量新增本地资金也压低了香港银行同业拆息（Hibor）。

But such glaring bifurcation from SOFR should only be temporary. When local funding costs are significantly lower, traders can borrow Hong Kong dollars and sell them against the higher-yielding US counterpart. This, in turn, will lift the city’s currency and rates over time.
但这种与 SOFR 的明显分歧应该只是暂时的。当本地融资成本显著降低时，交易员可以借入港元并卖出，买入收益率更高的美元。反过来，这将随着时间的推移提振香港的货币和利率。

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The fact that this rate gap has not narrowed shows there’s little appetite to earn dollar carry trades. Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further. In addition, there’s talk of an Asian Financial Crisis in reverse, marked by a violent rally in local currencies such as the one Taiwan witnessed in early May. What if HKMA all of a sudden decides to move the currency peg to a stronger range? Gains from the carry trade would be instantly wiped out.
利率差未见收窄表明，赚取美元套利交易的意愿不高。华尔街银行纷纷重申其美元将进一步走软的观点。此外，还有人谈论亚洲金融危机的逆转，其特征是当地货币的猛烈反弹，例如台湾在 5 月初经历的那种。如果香港金融管理局突然决定将货币挂钩调整到更强的范围会怎样？套利交易的收益将立即化为乌有。

Investors are right not to lose sight of the big picture. After all, Taiwan dollar’s 8% melt-up last month proved painful for under-hedged insurers and exporters.
投资者没有忽视大局，这是正确的。 毕竟，上个月新台币 8%的升值对对冲不足的保险公司和出口商来说是痛苦的。

On an economic level, this trend can be a huge boon for a financial hub that is trying to regain its footing. In recent years, businesses have complained about the dollar peg, saying that Fed rate hikes unnecessarily tightened the city’s financial conditions and hamstrung its economic recovery.
从经济层面来看，这一趋势可能对一个正试图重新站稳脚跟的金融中心来说是一个巨大的福音。近年来，企业一直抱怨港元与美元挂钩的制度，称美联储的加息不必要地收紧了香港的金融状况，并阻碍了香港的经济复苏。

Hong Kong’s anemic residential real estate, for one, could see a rebound if the current trend continues. The prevailing new mortgage rate would be only 2.1%, versus 3.5% in early May. For a 30-year loan with a 70% loan-to-value ratio, monthly payments could be cut by about 15%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The value of underwater mortgages would fall as well.
如果当前趋势持续，香港疲软的住宅房地产可能会出现反弹。目前的新抵押贷款利率仅为 2.1%，而 5 月初为 3.5%。彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）表示，对于一笔 30 年期、贷款价值比为 70%的贷款，每月还款额可能会减少约 15%。资不抵债的抵押贷款价值也会下降。

A persistent rate gap reveals two things: First, the “Sell America” trade is real. Second, the city has practically moved on from a waning reserve currency, tearing itself from an interest rate trajectory mapped out by central bankers thousands of miles away. This peg is too archaic.
持续存在的利率差距揭示了两件事：首先，“抛售美国”的交易是真实存在的。其次，这座城市实际上已经摆脱了日渐衰落的储备货币，将自己从数千英里之外的央行行长们规划的利率轨迹中挣脱出来。这种挂钩方式太陈旧了。

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