China is on the edge of recession — excluding Covid, for the first time since 2008 — as new data showed all-important manufacturing contracted for the fourth month in a row with particular weakness in new orders.
中國正處於衰退邊緣--不包括新冠肺炎疫情，這是自2008年以來的首次--新數據顯示，至關重要的製造業連續第四個月收縮，新訂單尤其疲弱。
In other words, what they’ve got is a backlog, then it’s a cliff.
換句話說，他們有一個積壓，然後它是一個懸崖。
Manufacturing makes up a third of China’s economy — much more than the US. The collapse of China’s property — another third of China’s economy — is adding further fuel to the fire.
製造業占中國經濟的三分之一，遠遠超過美國。占中國經濟三分之一的中國房地產市場的崩潰更是火上澆油。
Offices Emptier than Covid
辦公室比新冠肺炎更空
London’s Financial Times reports that office buildings in China are emptier than they were during the Covid lockdowns. FT notes that work-at-home hasn’t taken off in China, implying the main driver of empty offices is layoffs.
倫敦的《金融時報》報導稱，中國的寫字樓比新冠疫情封鎖期間更空。英國《金融時報》指出，在家工作在中國還沒有興起，這意味著辦公室空置的主要原因是裁員。
In Shanghai, office vacancies are at 21%. In Shenzhen, China’s central export hub, vacancies are at 27%. These are both much worse than vacancies during Covid lockdowns.
在上海，辦公室空置率為21%。在中國出口中心深圳，空缺率為27%。這些都比新型冠狀病毒封城期間的空缺要糟糕得多。
To give a flavor, Shenzhen rents have collapsed 15% percent year on year. Retry Reason
Of course, China’s official GDP numbers are immune from the storms, but then nobody believes them — not even in China. Retry Reason
Interestingly, not all the layoffs are domestic companies: Foreign investment in China has plunged by a third in the past year as President Xi’s authoritarianism is driving out foreign firms. Retry Reason
They’re vacating their Chinese offices and setting up shop in safer places like Vietnam or Mexico, with the factories to follow. Retry Reason
China’s Youth Crisis Retry Reason
The contraction is hitting young Chinese hardest, with youth unemployment jumping to nearly one in four young Chinese without a job. Retry Reason
With a record 12 million Chinese college students about to graduate and hit the job market, they won’t like what they find. Retry Reason
This is all, of course, social tinder. Public protests are now rising in China, with banners on overpasses demanding free elections and ex-soldiers accusing the government of “strangling” service members. Retry Reason
Labor strikes have jumped, including 1,000 workers in a Nike factory who, ironically, rose up after production was moved to Indonesia. Along with hundreds of strikes by unpaid construction workers as property developers collapse. Retry Reason
The background here is hundreds of millions of Chinese work informally — you need a kind of domestic passport to move to a big city where wages are decent, and most rural Chinese don’t have one. Retry Reason
But you also need fifteen years of formal work to get government pensions. That means for older workers, especially those without kids, thanks to government birth control, layoffs could mean literally starving in old age. They’re desperate. Retry Reason
What Went Wrong With the Chinese Miracle? Retry Reason
Growth under President Xi has collapsed to half its old rate — China now grows like a normal middle-income country. Retry Reason
This is because the Mao-worshipping Xi cracked down on business — even “disappearing” prominent businessmen like Ali Baba’s Jack Ma when they opposed Xi. Retry Reason
Meanwhile, Xi plowed trillions into government-favored industries — above all, green energy and housing. These have both now collapsed with over-capacity and under-demand.
與此同時，Xi將數萬億美金投入政府青睞的行業--最重要的是綠色能源和住房。現在，這兩家公司都因產能過剩和需求不足而崩潰。
To illustrate, at one point, China had nearly 1,500 electric car makers. Almost all have either gone bust or are in the process.
舉例來說，中國一度有近1,500家電動汽車製造商。幾乎所有這些公司要麼已經破產，要么正在破產過程中。
Meanwhile, housing has at least five and a half trillion dollars in bad loans, with millions of Chinese losing the half-built apartments they’d parked their life savings into as developers go under.
與此同時，房地產行業至少有5.5萬億美金的不良貸款，隨著開發商破產，數百萬中國人失去了他們畢生積蓄的在建公寓。
Between the housing collapse and stocks that have been flat since 2008, the Chinese don’t have the money to keep spending, pulling down the economy even further.
在房地產市場崩潰和2008年以來一直持平的股市之間，中國人沒有錢繼續消費，這進一步拉低了經濟。
What’s Next 下一步是什麼
The last time China hit a recession, in 2008, Beijing dumped massive stimulus into the economy. This time, China’s debt — over $50 trillion — has grown to the point it can’t afford it.
上一次中國陷入衰退是在2008年，北京方面向經濟注入了大規模刺激措施。這一次，中國的債務--超過50萬億美金--已經增長到它無法承受的地步。
And if China fails? The social contract in China is based on obedience for growth. If the government can’t hold up growth, historically, the Chinese have gotten very kinetic. There’s a reason Xi’s been installing a police state, but of course, if opposition is widespread enough, even the police flip sides. Retry Reason
China could be in for a bumpy ride. And if it gets desperate and needs a nationalist distraction, it could pull Taiwan — and America — into the storm. Retry Reason
The original version of this article was published at ProfStOnge.com. Retry Reason
