这是用户在 2024-6-20 9:13 为 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/china-is-studying-implementation-of-pboc-bond-tra... 保存的双语快照页面,由 沉浸式翻译 提供双语支持。了解如何保存?

PBOC’s New Tools May Spur Big Shift in How It Manages Money

  • PBOC bond trading may open doors to biggest change in a decade
  • Governor Pan hints at changes to policy rate framework

China’s central bank chief hinted at a blueprint for a new toolkit that could open the door to its biggest policy overhaul in years, as officials try to bolster growth in the world’s No.2 economy.

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, gave the clearest signal yet that the authority may start trading government bonds in the secondary market, during a speech in Shanghai on Wednesday. That shift has the potential to rewire how the central bank injects money into the economy and regulate liquidity.

Pan also hinted at interest-rate reform, signaling the bank will consider moving to using a single short-term rate to guide markets. That could reduce the importance of the current one-year policy rate known as the medium-term lending facility, introduced a decade ago.

Pan Gongsheng on June 19.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
潘功胜于 6 月 19 日。摄影师:沈其来/彭博社

The PBOC is also considering narrowing the interest rate corridor within which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, to signal a clearer policy target, he added.

“This clearly indicates a reform in monetary policy objectives and instruments over the next few years,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. It would be the “biggest reform” since 2014, he added, referring to when the MLF was introduced to funnel money to commercial and policy banks.
澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团高级中国策略师邢兆鹏表示:“这清楚地表明了未来几年货币政策目标和工具的改革。”他补充说,这将是自 2014 年以来的“最大改革”,指的是引入中期借贷便利(MLF)以向商业和政策银行注入资金。

Any changes will take time and have gradual impact on the markets, Xing said in a report, noting the need for China’s interest-rate system to be more based on market forces rather than determined by authorities.

China's Short-Term Interest Rate Corridor

Market rates have fluctuated around PBOC short-term policy rate

Source: People's Bank of China

China’s 10-year government bond yield inched up slightly as Pan spoke, before heading back down to close 2 basis points lower at 2.24% in the afternoon. The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.28 per dollar.
中国 10 年期政府债券收益率在潘讲话时略微上涨,然后在下午回落,收盘时比前一日下降 2 个基点,为 2.24%。离岸人民币兑美元保持在 7.28 水平基本不变。

Bond trading would give the PBOC a new tool that’s seen as more effective in managing liquidity than current instruments, because it impacts a broader swathe of market participants. It would also bolster the bank’s ability to help the government raise money to fund investment and other spending to support the economy.

That’s needed now more than ever as local authorities’ finances become increasingly strained, crimping their ability to help an economy challenged by deflation and a property downturn.

Over the past decade, the PBOC has mainly injected money into the economy by lowering the amount of cash it requires banks to keep in reserve. With that ratio approaching the implied 5% minimum level, as policymakers try to maintain ample liquidity to encourage lending, the central bank has growing reason to find fresh tools.
在过去的十年里,中国人民银行主要通过降低银行必须保留的现金数量来向经济注入资金。随着这一比例接近暗示的 5%最低水平,决策者试图保持充足的流动性以鼓励放贷,央行有越来越多的理由寻找新的工具。

Read More About China’s Central Bank:

The PBOC last revamped its interest rate framework in 2019, introducing the de facto benchmark lending rate, or the loan prime rate, to make lending rates more market-driven.
中国人民银行上次在 2019 年改革了其利率框架,引入了事实上的基准贷款利率,即贷款市场报价利率,以使贷款利率更加市场驱动。

Pan didn’t clarify whether the PBOC would introduce a new short-term rate, but said a daily tool that allows banks to borrow against their bond holdings — known as the seven-day reverse repo — was already “basically shouldering this role.”

A shift to prioritizing that more agile rate over the MLF “would allow them to more directly influence short-term market rates,” according to Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.
根据国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩的说法,将更加灵活的利率置于 MLF 之上的转变“将使他们能够更直接地影响短期市场利率”。

“The PBOC seems focused on using a range of operational tools to fine-tune monetary conditions, while avoiding the perception of aggressive easing that could fuel inflation or financial stability risks,” Zhou said.

Bond Trading 债券交易

The PBOC chief also said the monetary authority, along with the finance ministry, was studying how to implement government bond trading, noting it would be a gradual process. He sought to dispel the idea the central bank was embarking on massive stimulus.

“Including government bond buying and selling into the monetary policy toolbox doesn’t mean we’ll do quantitative easing,” said Pan, referring to the once-unorthodox central bank policy of buying government bonds to stimulate the economy.

The remarks come as expectations are growing for the PBOC to start purchases and sales of government bonds, after comments by President Xi Jinping made public this year called for such a tool to regulate liquidity. However, there have been few details on how this may be done and when it may begin.

In addition, a months-long bull run in government bonds also dented any need for immediate central bank bond buying. The PBOC has issued repeated warnings against the bond rally over financial risk concerns, and a newspaper it manages said the monetary authority could step in to sell bonds if demand for the haven assets continues to rise.

In another sign of the PBOC’s unease with the bond bull run, Pan said the central bank is monitoring bond investments by non-bank financial institutions closely as those who hold large amounts of medium- to long-term bonds could face interest-rate risks. Central banks should learn a lesson from the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, and correct any pile-up of financial market risks in a timely fashion, he said.

Many economists argued China wouldn’t embark on QE in the short term, as interest rates are still well above zero and market demand for government bonds is strong.

Video Player is loading.
Current Time 0:00
Duration 2:10
Loaded: 0%
Progress: 0%
Stream Type LIVE
Remaining Time -2:10
China Studying Implementation of PBOC Bond Trading
China Studying Implementation of PBOC Bond Trading
WATCH: PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng says the central bank is studying how to implement government bond trading. Minmin Low reports.
观看:央行行长潘功胜表示,央行正在研究如何实施政府债券交易。Minmin Low 报道。

“It is encouraging for the PBOC to bring forth the discussion of sovereign bond trading. QE or not, the potential participation of PBOC is likely to improve market liquidity,” said Wee Khoon Chong, senior APAC strategist at BNY Mellon in Hong Kong.
中国银行的讨论主权债券交易是令人鼓舞的。不管是不是 QE,中国银行的潜在参与可能会改善市场流动性,”纽约梅隆银行香港高级亚太策略师 Wee Khoon Chong 表示。

Pan signaled there is more room to ease monetary policy as other economies are pivoting to cut rates this year. The appreciation momentum of the dollar is weakening, which will help keep the yuan stable and expand the room for China’s monetary policy, he said.

He also fueled speculations the LPR will be lowered in coming months by saying that some banks’ quotes of the rate significantly deviated from the actual best lending rate they offer to clients. The PBOC will work to improve the quality of such quotes to better reflect the lending market’s rate levels, he said.
他还通过表示,一些银行的利率报价与他们向客户提供的实际最佳贷款利率存在显著偏差,进一步加剧了未来几个月 LPR 将下调的猜测。他表示,央行将努力改善这类报价的质量,以更好地反映贷款市场的利率水平。

    — With assistance from John Liu, Yujing Liu, Zheng Li, Wenjin Lv, Fran Wang, Katia Dmitrieva, and Matthew Burgess
    在 John Liu、Yujing Liu、Zheng Li、Wenjin Lv、Fran Wang、Katia Dmitrieva 和 Matthew Burgess 的协助下

    (Updates throughout.) (更新中。)

    Up Next 接下来
    China Will Struggle to Undo US Dominance