Timeframe Selection
Monthly charts - Position Trading
The monthly charts are the basis if you will for our long-term position trading. This is for someone who doesn’t have time to do intraday trading. Monthly setups take a lot of time to form so you have also a lot of time to prepare. Even if you are intraday trader monthly charts should be used to frame the Long term price movements. If you trade on these longer-term charts, or at least trade off of the ideas that come from the monthly charts, it removes a lot of the price action shock that comes with intraday trading or short-term trading.
Weekly charts - Swing Trading
Swing trading is a little bit more frequent than the position trading. Typically provides 1-2 trades within 3 month period. This is also for people that don’t have much time to be minute by minute on the charts everyday. However it can still be used for ideas and bias that can frame intraday setups.
Daily charts - Short Term Trading
This is the best chart because it gives you the best of both worlds. It gives you a long-term perspective, providing all the near-term banking levels, the levels that the banks and large funds would be interested in. You can clearly see those on this daily chart. The daily chart also gives us the framework to do a lot of analysis for short-term trading. So, it has the benefits of a higher time frame but not to the degree of weekly and monthly, but it does give you a higher time frame perspective. If we can arrive at strong analysis reference points in terms of institutional order flow, if we can look at points at which there may be stops, there may be a liquidity void, there may be a fair value gap. This is where the majority of our analysis takes place.
4 Hour or Less - Day Trading
This will be studied more in depth further down the road.
Defining Setups for your Model
When we look at setups, we're specifically finding unique characteristics that repeat themselves over and over again in price action because there are generic characteristics and traits in price action that repeat over and over again. They're not limited to any one of these specific time frames. So when we look for specific setups, we're going to find a setup that we, individually as a trader, like the most—the one that we can see easily. And you're going to see that while some of them overlap, some of them won't overlap, but they still will give you an opportunity to be in the marketplace in the right direction.
Trend Trader: Trading only in the direction of the Monthly & Weekly Chart direction
Using this model we will only be trading in the direction of the Monthly & Weekly charts. If price is going down, we will only be looking for shorts. And if we have a bullish bias we will only be looking for longs.
Swing Trader: Trading the Daily Chart intermediate price action
There's a lot of setups that require you to sit on your hands and wait. But when they form, and you position yourself in them, they offer stellar rewards. They just go on and on, and the pay-outs are amazing. But again, it requires a great deal of patience.
Contrarian Trader: Trading reversal patterns at market extremes.
When the market has gone a great distance higher and has been moving higher for a long period of time, eventually, it's going to hit a significant level, usually on a HTF, creating reversal patterns. Now, it doesn't mean the market's going to reverse and create a top there; it can, and sometimes it will. But you can still trade reversal patterns at extreme moves or what would become referred to as capitulation, where the market just moves extremely, either that last burst higher if it's been bullish or that quick, sudden drop with a great deal of magnitude going lower. But it doesn't always have to require capitulation; it could be on a short-term basis. For example, if you watch the daily chart, we may go above a previous month's high, and that may be a really good selling scenario to sell short. Not forever, but it's still an opportunity to trade with.
Short Term Trader: Trading the weekly ranges
This is when you trade weekly range and your mostly holding the trade between 1-5 days.
Day Trader
This is trading the intraday volatility with exits by 2:00PM EST.
The Daily chart will give you everything you need in terms of Institutional Orderflow levels and Daily Bias.
Even if you don’t catch the actual inception of the Monthly chart setup, you can still trade in that direction and yield great results. The monthly setups take a great deal of time that you can use for bias.
In each trading month there is a plethora of setups.
There are 4 weekly candles
And around 20 trading daily candles
In each of those weekly candles there are lots of opportunity and inside those daily candles too! Think about the apple seed.
The really high probability setup exists on the Monthly chart. If the monthly chart is moving around, and the monthly chart is having sensitivity at specific levels, who would be moving price around on these levels? Obviously, the answer would be large banks and institutions. Knowing this we can appreciate more the Monthly chart.
The market's going to be driven by deep pockets if it's going to push price around on the monthly chart. There's a great deal of deep pockets—smart money, banks, institutions—they're all going to be in here pushing price around. So, it's in your best interest to understand that monthly chart's going to do.
The last up-close candle prior to the move down is a bearish Orderblock because Smart Money are selling in up moves.
Price needed 13 months to return to the -OB, but only 6 months to reach the sell stops. Once price hit the -OB, it stayed there 2 months and gave us a chance to get on board. Between the -OB and the Sell stops this is our range. So even before the range forms we have the potential range identified. So we already know where the monthly chart is heading. How can we use that information across all types of trading? This range is over 2.9k pips. Let’s view that range on the Weekly chart.
When you have 2 -Breakers always use the lower one.
Weekly Chart
Daily Chart
The daily chart is going to be a short-term action-based time frame where you can see all of the intermediate and short-term highs and lows in the marketplace. But more specifically, you can see how you can actually frame your short-term trades and your day trades. We already know that the range is defined by a known high (-OB) and known low (Sell stops). We can use those 2 price points and draw fib tool with the 0.25, 0.5 and 0.75 levels. This grading swings. At those levels is where we can see the market forming setups.
This was all outlined on a monthly chart, but the trading ideas are refined further by breaking down the monthly chart into a weekly chart, then breaking that down into a daily chart.
Once we have refined price action on the daily chart, how do we enter? There are several ways:
Optimal Trade Entry
Orderblock
Stop runs aka Turtle Soup
Liquidity voids
So to summarize everything:
Find the HTF Monthly narrative and bias.
Grade the price swing from Inception to Terminus.
Refine price action on the Daily chart
Pick your favourite entry model
Stop run
Breaker
Orderblock
OTE
Liquidity Voids
When we have a bearish bias derived from the monthly chart, we look for the daily chart to seek liquidity above old highs.
If you are looking to trade only stop runs, you first have to know why the stop run would be necessary or why it would be influential in terms of price action. And you get that from the higher time frame, like we showed with the monthly chart. You hold onto that bias until clearly, you're shown that you're wrong. In other words, this thing could easily turn around here and start trading all the way up and become violently bullish, and that would obviously make you change gears or at least put pause on the notion you expect to see the euro-dollar trade lower. But until it does that or it hits the terminus or wherever we ultimately think the price is going to go, we stay with that mindset.
If you can’t see the Turtle soup run on stops, you can trade breakers and orderbocks.
