Xi Jinping has much to worry about in 2025
习近平在 2025 年有很多事情要担心

SOON AFTER he took power in 2012, Xi Jinping urged caution about China’s prospects. “The further our cause advances,” he told fellow leaders, “the more new situations and problems will arise, the more risks and challenges we will face and the more unforeseen events we will encounter.” As China’s economy flounders and social tensions increase—and with Donald Trump about to enter the White House—the coming year will be full of the kind of difficulties Mr Xi feared.
2012 年上台后，习近平敦促对中国的前景持谨慎态度。他对其他领导人说：“我们的事业进展得越深入，出现的新情况和问题就越多，我们面临的风险和挑战就越多，遇到的不可预见的事件就越多。随着中国经济陷入困境，社会紧张局势加剧，以及唐纳德·特朗普即将入主白宫，来年将充满习所担心的那种困难。

The possibility of Trump-induced tumult in the relationship between the world’s two strongest powers is a big and immediate worry. Decisions made by America’s next president and his mostly China-hawkish team will affect matters that Mr Xi regards as critically linked to the Communist Party’s grip on power. First is the economy. Mr Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China, on top of a rise of 10% if China fails to curb exports of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans a year. Some analysts say these increases could knock more than two percentage points off China’s economic growth.
特朗普可能引发世界两个最强国之间关系的动荡，这是一个巨大而直接的担忧。美国下一任总统及其主要支持中国鹰派的团队做出的决定将影响习认为与共产党掌权密切相关的事务。首先是经济。特朗普威胁要对从中国进口的商品征收60%的关税，如果中国不能遏制芬太尼的出口，将加征10%的关税，芬太尼是一种合成阿片类药物，每年导致数以万计的美国人死亡。一些分析人士表示，这些增长可能会使中国的经济增长减少两个百分点以上。

There is much uncertainty about how fast the tariffs will be raised and whether Mr Trump is really determined to push them so high. But if imposed as advertised, they could deal a hefty blow to China at a time when the country is struggling to revive the badly battered confidence of households and businesses amid a property-market slump and a scarcity of jobs.
关于关税的提高速度，以及特朗普是否真的决心将关税提高到如此高，存在很多不确定性。但是，如果像宣传的那样实施，它们可能会对中国造成沉重打击，而此时中国正在房地产市场低迷和就业机会稀缺的情况下努力恢复家庭和企业受到严重打击的信心。

Mr Xi would have no easy remedies. He may respond by beefing up the stimulus measures that he began unveiling in September, but the caution that has settled in among consumers and investors suggests that he may struggle to achieve the desired effect. He could allow the yuan to devalue in order to keep Chinese exports competitive despite extra tariffs. But that could further sap the confidence of investors and prompt capital flight. It may also exacerbate tensions with major trade partners, many of whom already think China is flooding their markets with cheap goods.
习先生不会有简单的补救措施。他可能会通过加强他于 9 月开始公布的刺激措施来做出回应，但消费者和投资者的谨慎态度表明，他可能难以达到预期的效果。他可以允许人民币贬值，以便在额外关税的情况下保持中国出口的竞争力。但这可能会进一步削弱投资者的信心并促使资本外逃。它还可能加剧与主要贸易伙伴的紧张关系，其中许多人已经认为中国正在用廉价商品充斥他们的市场。

Another year in the economic doldrums would turn citizens gloomier. In 2024 their stress became more evident. One sign was a rise in random acts of violence against members of the public, dubbed by China’s state media “revenge on society” attacks. These have often involved knifings and the driving of cars into crowds. Such incidents are hardly unique to China, but the party is clearly worried. Officials have called for such cases to be dealt with “severely, strictly and swiftly”: a phrase that often heralds brutal justice with hasty, pro-forma trials that result in long jail terms or executions.
经济低迷的一年将使公民更加悲观。2024 年，他们的压力变得更加明显。一个迹象是针对公众的随机暴力行为有所增加，中国官方媒体将其称为“报复社会”攻击。这些通常涉及持刀和驾驶汽车撞向人群。此类事件并非中国所独有，但中共显然对此感到担忧。官员们呼吁“严厉、严格和迅速”地处理此类案件：这句话往往预示着残酷的正义，匆忙、形式化的审判会导致长期监禁或处决。

In 2025 expect the term “social work” to feature prominently in party rhetoric. This is not so much about providing services for people in need, but about ensuring order by strengthening the party’s grassroots control. Mr Xi set the tone in November at the first meeting of the Central Social Work Department. He said its functions were “vital to the party’s long-term governance” and to “social harmony and stability”. The department’s work could entail reinforcing efforts to ensure that party committees use their voices in the management of private firms, and that they keep the authorities informed of anything that could trigger unrest. With many firms cutting wages or laying people off, the party wants eyes and ears in every workplace.
预计到 2025 年，“社会工作”一词将在党的言论中占据突出地位。这与其说是为有需要的人提供服务，不如说是通过加强党的基层控制来确保秩序。习先生于11月在中央社会工作部第一次会议上定下了基调。他说，该组织的职能“对党的长期治理至关重要”和“社会和谐与稳定”。该部门的工作可能需要加强努力，确保党委在私营企业管理中发出自己的声音，并确保他们随时向当局通报任何可能引乱的事情。随着许多公司削减工资或裁员，该党希望在每个工作场所都有耳目。

State media occasionally admit that troubles are brewing. In December Xinhua, the official news service, referred to a “complicated and challenging environment of increasing external pressure and growing internal difficulties”. But at the annual session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), beginning on March 5th, delegates will be under pressure to sound upbeat. They will probably repeat the phrase used by Mr Xi in his New Year address on December 31st: “China’s economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory.”
官方媒体偶尔承认麻烦正在酝酿中。去年12月，官方新闻机构新华社（Xinhua）提到，“外部压力不断增加，内部困难日益加剧，环境复杂而充满挑战”。但是，在3月5日开始的中国橡皮图章式人大（全国人大）年度会议上，代表们将面临压力，要求他们发出乐观的声音。他们可能会重复习在12月31日的新年致辞中用的那句话：“中国经济已经反弹，并处于上升轨道上。

Much attention will be focused on the target for economic growth in 2025, which will be announced at the meeting. To bolster confidence, the government may repeat the goal for 2024 of “around 5%”. Officials’ recent calls for “extraordinary” efforts to buoy the economy suggest they are preparing to aim high. One such measure could be an increase in the headline budget deficit from about 3% of GDP to 4%, according to Reuters, a news agency. This would mean extra government spending of about 1.3trn yuan ($179.4bn), it reckons.
2025 年的经济增长目标将在会议上公布。为了提振信心，政府可能会重复 2024 年“5% 左右”的目标。官员们最近呼吁采取“非同寻常的”措施来提振经济，这表明他们正准备志存高远。据路透社报道，其中一项措施可能是将总体预算赤字从占 GDP 的 3% 左右增加到 4%。据估计，这将意味着政府的额外支出约为 13 万亿元人民币（1794 亿美元）。

The NPC is likely to gloss over politics. Yet turmoil at the top of the armed forces will be on the minds of many of the nearly 3,000 delegates, about 280 of whom are military personnel. In November Admiral Miao Hua, who ranked fifth in the high command, was placed under investigation for “serious violations of discipline”—often a euphemism for corruption. Admiral Miao was thought to be close to Mr Xi. By targeting him, Mr Xi may be trying to show that no one enjoys protection from his war on graft. But it also raises questions about his control over the People’s Liberation Army.
全国人大可能会掩盖政治。然而，在近 3,000 名代表中，许多人将考虑武装部队高层的动荡，其中约 280 名是军人。11月，在最高指挥部中排名第五的苗华海军上将因“严重违纪”而受到调查——这通常是腐败的委婉说法。人们认为苗海军上将与习关系密切。通过针对他，习可能试图表明，没有人享有他的反贪战争的保护。但这也引发了人们对他对中国人民解放军控制权的质疑。

Admiral Miao is the highest-ranking of more than a dozen senior officers who have been toppled in the past year and a half. Among them are a former deputy commander of the ground forces and a former naval chief of the military region that includes the South China Sea. The two men’s removal from the NPC was announced on December 25th. The purges may continue. The fate of the defence minister, Admiral Dong Jun, will be closely watched. China has dismissed reports that he is in trouble, but he is believed to be a protégé of Admiral Miao. Admiral Dong’s two predecessors were expelled from the party in June for alleged corruption.

With so much bothering him at home, Mr Xi may be disinclined to take big risks abroad. He would probably prefer to stand back while Mr Trump tries to secure peace in Ukraine. The war complicates China’s relations with Europe (which resents China’s supply of tech to Russia’s arms factories), but it helps China by sapping Western resources. The question of how to handle Ukraine could cause tensions between European countries and a more isolationist America, the kind of feud that China likes. Mr Xi will keep trying to browbeat Taiwan as well as rival claimants to territory in the South China Sea, though he will probably seek to avoid a big conflict. Mr Trump boasts of being war-averse, but Mr Xi may not fully trust him to steer clear.

As Mr Xi sees it, risks at home and abroad can become entwined in dangerous ways. “If we do not take preventive measures or address them properly,” he told officials in 2016, “they will add up, escalate and evolve, from minor ones to major ones, from regional ones to systemic ones, and from international ones to domestic ones…eventually threatening the party’s governance and state security.” China’s biggest festival, the lunar new year, starts on January 29th. It will be the year of the snake. Mr Xi may want to tread warily. ■

Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.