Nvidia’s staggering gains leave investors wondering whether to cash in or buy more
英伟达惊人的收益让投资者犹豫是抛售还是继续买入

NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - The huge rally in Nvidia Corp's (NVDA.O), opens new tab shares has investors weighing whether to cash in, hold on for more gains or chase a stock that has tripled during the past year.
纽约，6 月 21 日(路透社) - 英伟达公司(NVDA.O)股票的大幅上涨让投资者在权衡是抛售、继续持有以获取更多收益，还是追逐这只在过去一年中翻了三倍的股票。

Nvidia this week briefly became the largest U.S. company by market value on the back of a more than 1,000% surge in share price since October 2022. It is up 206% in the last 12 months.
本周，英伟达股价自 2022 年 10 月以来暴涨超过 1000%，使其一度成为美国市值最大的公司。过去 12 个月上涨 206%。

Nvidia bulls say more gains are coming. The Santa Clara, California company stands at the forefront of a massive technological shift as the dominant provider of chips to support artificial intelligence applications. Revenues are expected to double this fiscal year to $120 billion and rise to $160 billion in the following year. Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab, by comparison, is expected to grow revenues by about 16% for its fiscal year.
Nvidia 的支持者表示，股价还将进一步上涨。这家位于加利福尼亚圣克拉拉的公司站在技术巨变的最前沿，是支持人工智能应用的芯片的主要提供商。预计本财年收入将翻倍至 1,200 亿美元，并在接下来的一年增至 1,600 亿美元。相比之下，微软（MSFT.O）预计其本财年收入增长约 16%。

The stock’s eye-popping performance is drawing in investors afraid of missing out on more gains. Yet it has also made Nvidia’s shares more richly valued: its forward price-to-earnings ratio, for example, has grown by 80% this year. That could make the company’s shares more vulnerable to sharp pullbacks when bad news hits.
股票的惊人表现吸引了那些害怕错过更多收益的投资者。然而，这也使得英伟达的股票更加高估：例如，其前瞻市盈率今年已增长了 80%。这可能会使公司股票在不利消息传出时更容易受到大幅回撤的影响。

"What it's done in the past ... shouldn't be driving the investment decision," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. "However, on a stock like Nvidia, it's awfully hard to have that not be a factor in the investment decision because you have this chasing feeling."
“过去的情况不应该主导投资决策，”Horizon Investment Services 首席执行官查克·卡尔森说道。“然而，在像英伟达这样的股票上，过去的情况很难不成为投资决策的因素，因为你会有这种追逐的感觉。”

So far, Nvidia’s share price trajectory has rewarded bullish investors and punished doubters. The stock is up 164% in 2024, as its market value has surged to over $3.2 trillion, briefly putting it ahead of Microsoft and Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab this week.
到目前为止，英伟达的股价轨迹奖励了看涨的投资者，惩罚了怀疑者。 该股票在 2024 年上涨了 164％，其市值激增至超过 3.2 万亿美元，暂时使其超过微软和苹果（AAPL.O）本周。

Optimistic investors point to Nvidia’s dominance of the AI-chip sector as a key reason for their bullishness.
乐观的投资者指出英伟达在人工智能芯片领域的主导地位是他们看涨的主要原因。

The high performance of Nvidia's chips makes them difficult to replace in AI data centers. Adding to this lead is its proprietary software framework that developers use to program AI processors.
Nvidia 芯片的高性能使其在人工智能数据中心中难以替代。此外，其专有软件框架也进一步加强了其领先地位，开发人员可用其来编程人工智能处理器。

Ivana Delevska, founder and chief investment officer of Spear Invest, remains bullish on the outlook for Nvidia shares, as she expects upside to earnings beyond what Wall Street analysts are forecasting.
Ivana Delevska，Spear Invest 的创始人兼首席投资官，对 Nvidia 股票的前景保持乐观，因为她预计收益将超出华尔街分析师的预测。

Nvidia is the top holding in the Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX.O), opens new tab, at nearly 14% of the fund.
Nvidia 是 Spear Alpha ETF（SPRX.O）中最大的持有股，占基金近 14%。

"If the (stock) price has gone up like it has but the earnings haven't really moved, yeah, we would be very worried," Delevska said. But, "where we are here it has pretty solid earnings support."
“如果股价像现在这样上涨，但收益并没有真正增长，是的，我们会非常担心，”Delevska 说。但是，“我们目前的情况是有相当坚实的收益支撑。”

Indeed, Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 45 is only modestly higher than its five-year average P/E of 41, even after growing from 25 at the start of the year, according to LSEG Datastream. At the same time, that valuation is down from more than 84 about a year ago.
事实上，根据 LSEG Datastream 的数据，英伟达的预期市盈率约为 45，仅略高于其五年平均市盈率 41，即使在年初从 25 增长。与此同时，该估值比一年前的 84 多有所下降。

Tom Plumb, president of Plumb Funds, said he believes the opportunity for Nvidia's chips beyond AI is underappreciated. The firm has held Nvidia shares for more than seven years and it is the largest position in its two funds.
普兰姆基金总裁汤姆·普兰姈表示，他认为英伟达芯片在人工智能之外的机会被低估了。该公司持有英伟达股票已超过七年，是其两只基金中最大的持仓。

"What we really are talking about is data and access to data," Plumb said. "And they have the fastest, smartest chip that allows that."
"我们真正讨论的是数据和对数据的访问，" 普伦布说。"而他们拥有最快、最智能的芯片，可以实现这一点。"

Others have grown wary about Nvidia’s prospects of delivering stunning gains in the future.
其他人对英伟达未来实现惊人收益的前景变得谨慎起来。

Nvidia has a "truly revolutionary" product and has posted "unprecedented growth," said Gil Luria, an analyst with D.A. Davidson. However, he has a "neutral" rating on the stock and a $90 price target, compared with the stock's price of $130.78 on Thursday.
Nvidia 拥有一款“真正革命性”的产品，并取得了“空前的增长”，D.A. Davidson 的分析师吉尔·卢里亚表示。然而，他对该股票给予“中性”评级，目标价为 90 美元，而周四该股的价格为 130.78 美元。

Looking ahead several years, Luria said he doubts Nvidia's customers will spend enough to drive the Wall Street earnings estimates that support the company's valuation.
展望未来几年，卢里亚表示，他怀疑英伟达的客户是否会花足够的钱来推动支撑公司估值的华尔街盈利预期。

"The caution on Nvidia comes from the longer-term outlook," Luria said. "This type of performance is very hard to maintain."
“对英伟达的警告来自长期展望，”卢里亚说。“要维持这种表现非常困难。”

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said last month that he reduced his big bet in Nvidia in 2024, telling CNBC television, opens new tab that "AI might be a little overhyped now, but underhyped long term."
亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒上个月表示，他在 2024 年减少了对英伟达的大笔投注，并告诉 CNBC 电视台：“人工智能现在可能有点被夸大，但从长期来看被低估了。”

Carlson, of Horizon Investment Services, considers Nvidia a "buy," but because of the stock's relatively expensive valuation, it would not make the cut to be included in Horizon's roughly 30-stock portfolios.
卡尔森（Horizon Investment Services 的代表）认为英伟达是一个“买入”股票，但由于股票相对昂贵的估值，它不符合被纳入 Horizon 的大约 30 只股票组合的标准。

Other concerns include eventual competition that erodes Nvidia's market-leading position. Tech giants Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Google-owner Alphabet are competing to build their AI computing capabilities and add the technology to their products and services.
其他担忧包括最终会侵蚀英伟达在市场上的领先地位的竞争。科技巨头微软、Meta 平台和谷歌母公司 Alphabet 正在竞相构建他们的人工智能计算能力，并将这项技术应用到他们的产品和服务中。

Analysts at Morningstar, which has a $105 fair value on the stock, said leading vendors such as Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms will eventually seek to reduce their reliance on the company and diversify their supplier base.
晨星公司的分析师认为，该股票的公允价值为 105 美元，表示领先的供应商，如亚马逊、微软和 Meta 平台，最终将寻求减少对该公司的依赖，并多样化其供应商基础。

"Nvidia dominates AI today and the sky is the limit for the company’s profitability if it can maintain this lead over the next decade,” Morningstar's Brian Colello wrote this month. “However, any semblance of the successful development of alternatives could meaningfully limit Nvidia’s upside.”
“如能在未来十年保持领先地位，英伟达今日主导人工智能，公司的盈利潜力将无限制，”晨星公司的布莱恩·科莱洛本月写道。“然而，任何成功发展替代方案的迹象都可能显著限制英伟达的上行空间。”