TMTB: NVDA Earnings Recap - TMT Breakout

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TMT Breakout

By TMT Breakout

TMT Breakout aims to pass along the most important and relevant technology, media, and telecom stock moving research, trade ideas, and news items along with our own insight and commentary every day. Yes, a TMT Specialist!

7:29 PM

TMTB: NVDA Earnings Recap

Sending this out early for you early-risers, will send the usual Morning Wrap out shortly…

paid∙TMT Breakout∙2 min read

4:47 AM

CRM HPQ CRWD NTAP Quick Takes

CRM +4%: Decent results as cRPO beat at 11% cc vs street/buyside around 10% / revs in line…Rev guide slightly below but cRPO guide in line…CFO is leaving

paid∙TMT Breakout∙3 min read

4:28 AM

NVDA Quick Take

NVDA -2%: Decent results with DC/Total revs in-line with bogeys and approves $50B; Q3 guide slightly below bogey

paid∙TMT Breakout∙1 min read

3:48 AM

TMTB EOD Wrap

A little early today as we have some big prints after the close.

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Aug 28

TMTB Morning Wrap

Happy NVDA EPS day.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙7 min read

Aug 27

TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning.

paid∙TMT Breakout∙9 min read

Aug 27

TMTB EOD Wrap

QQQs -90bps as IWM +30bps outperform. Treasuries have a modest bid, with yields flat-to-down 2bp across the curve with 10year yields making 52wk lows. Fed expectations are holding approximately steady, with the market pricing in a 33bp rate cut on 9/18 and ~103bp for the year (h/t VitalKnowledge).

paid∙TMT Breakout∙2 min read

Aug 26

TMTB: Earnings Cheat Sheet for this week

NVDA CHWY CRM CRWD DELL MRVL MDB ESTC

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Aug 26

TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning.

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Aug 25

TMTB Weekly

Happy Sunday.

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Aug 24

TMTB Mid-Day Wrap

Early one today as the weekend approaches…QQQs +55bps selling off a bit here…Big squeezy day as Powell made it official that the Fed will start cutting in Sept in a dovish speech where he sounded increasingly concerned about the outlook for labor and basically said the Fed doesn’t want to see the unemployment rate rise any further than it already has: “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.” Yields are falling with the 2 year dn 7bps and 10 year dn 4 bps…Non-profitable tech +5% as TMT momentum pair -1.7% and large cap lagged..Let’s get to the recap

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Aug 23

TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning.

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TMT Breakout

TMTB: NVDA Earnings Recap

Aug 29, 2024

∙ Paid

Sending this out early for you early-risers, will send the usual Morning Wrap out shortly…

NVDA: Solid results with Total revs/DC revs hitting bogeys / Q3 rev guide a bit light / GM guide the debate…

One-liner: Not much to change narrative/#s here, buyside #s staying at ~$4.75-$5 in FY26

Q2 DC revs $26.3B vs $26B+ bogeys $25B street
Total Revs $30B vs $28.8 street and $30B+ bogeys
Q3 Revs guided to $32.5B vs street at $31.9B and bogeys of $33B

Debate last night and this morning and why stock is down centers around GMs. NVDA reiterated that Oct Q gross margin drifts back to 75% with full year in the mid 70s (assuming that means 75% its shy of street’s 76% and implies Q4 at ~72% vs street’s 75% assuming same $2B beat cadence through year end) - while in line with what they said last call in terms of Blackwell initially being dilutive to GMs, it does imply a downtick of a few 100bps in Q4 (Jan) (note, nvda has also said eventually BW margins will be in ~80% range for BW similar to Hopper).

Other point of contention is China strength (up 50% q/q and grew more than $1B related to H2) but CFO basically said geography a bit misleading as some of the product is sent to assemblers abroad and come to end users in the states.

On the positive side, Arcuri at UBS points out that the most important metric they watch - NVDA’s purchase commitments and supply obligations - grew significant for the first time in several Qs at $10B a 40% q/q increase after having been flat in Q4 and up only 15% last Q. UBS says this foreshadows very strong rev growth over the next few Qs - starting in Jan Q as Blackwell will layer on top of Hopper.

In terms of Blackwell timeline, they said BW was “widely sampling” in Q2 and that they expect to ship several billion dollars of BW rev in Q4 of FY25 while production is also set to begin in Q4. In terms of improvements, they said just had to change BW mask production step.

CSPs in aggregate represented 45% of DC revs in line with last qs and down from Jan Q >50% while consumer internet was 50% of total revs.