The spread of the Black Death across Eurasia in the years 1347-1352 was the most devastating disaster ever recorded for human populations. It remains a definitive turning point in world history, with special consequences for economic development afterwards. Responses to the sudden, sharp, and sustained reduction in population varied widely across the continent depending on the way previous generations had taken advantage of the Medieval Climatic Optimum. That climatic episode ended, it now appears, definitively in 1342, when the Nile floods recorded a minimum level, foretelling another harvest failure, but were followed by increased variability of flood levels-unusually high levels followed by dramatically lower levels-both of which reduced harvest yields. In the same year northern Italian cities as well as southern German towns experienced floods that set records that still stand today. The following years saw average temperatures falling, with winters becoming longer and wetter in northern Europe. Changes in the monsoon patterns in Southeast Asia wreaked havoc with the expanded cultivated areas, as the reduced labor force could not restore the irrigation works and canals damaged by the floods, which became more severe and frequent. The prolonged climate change of the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries made it all the more difficult for populations to recover after the Black Death.
1347 至 1352 年间黑死病在欧亚大陆的蔓延，是人类有记录以来最致命的人口灾难。这一事件始终是世界历史的决定性转折点，对后续经济发展产生了特殊影响。面对人口骤减、持续锐减的局面，欧亚大陆各地的应对措施差异显著，这种差异取决于前几代人如何利用中世纪气候适宜期的优势。如今看来，这一气候期在 1342 年确凿终结——当年尼罗河洪水水位创下最低记录，预示又一次歉收，随后却出现洪水水位的异常波动（极高水位与极低水位交替出现），两者都导致农作物减产。同年，意大利北部城市与德国南部城镇遭遇的洪水，其水位记录至今未被打破。随后数年欧洲北部平均气温持续下降，冬季变得更为漫长潮湿。 东南亚季风模式的改变给扩张的耕地带来了灾难性影响，由于劳动力减少，人们无法修复被洪水破坏的灌溉工程和运河，而洪水正变得愈发严重和频繁。十四、十五世纪持续的气候变化使得黑死病后的人口恢复变得更为困难。

In 1348 an epidemic of bubonic plague, the infamous Black Death, reached Europe from Asia. Spreading rapidly along the main commercial routes and taking its greatest toll in cities and towns, for two years it ravaged the whole of Europe, from Sicily and Portugal to Norway, from Muscovy to Iceland. In some cities more than half the population succumbed to the outbreak. For Europe as a whole the population was probably reduced by at least one-third. Moreover, the plague became endemic, with new outbursts every ten or fifteen years for the remainder of the century. Adding to the misery engendered by the plague, warfare, both civil and international, reached a new peak of intensity and violence in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. In the Hundred Years’ War (1338-1453) between England and France large areas of
1348 年，一场腺鼠疫大流行——恶名昭著的"黑死病"——从亚洲传入欧洲。这场瘟疫沿着主要商路迅速蔓延，在城镇地区造成最为惨重的伤亡，两年间肆虐整个欧洲大陆，从西西里岛、葡萄牙直至挪威，从莫斯科公国到冰岛。某些城市超过半数居民死于这场瘟疫。就整个欧洲而言，人口可能减少了至少三分之一。更可怕的是，鼠疫演变为地方性流行病，在十四世纪余下的岁月里，每隔十到十五年就会再度爆发。雪上加霜的是，十四至十五世纪期间，内战与国际冲突的残酷程度都达到了新高峰。英法百年战争（1338-1453 年）期间，大片
western France were devastated by a deliberate policy of pillage and destruction, while in the East the venerable Byzantine Empire finally succumbed to the onslaught of the Ottoman Turks.
法国西部因蓄意的掠夺与破坏政策而满目疮痍，与此同时，东方的拜占庭帝国最终在奥斯曼土耳其人的猛攻下走向覆灭。

The Black Death was the most dramatic episode in the crisis of the medieval economy, but it was by no means the origin or cause of that crisis. By the end of the thirteenth century the demographic increase of the two or three previous centuries had already begun to level off. In the first half of the fourteenth century crop failures and famine became increasingly frequent and severe. Because of these the population may have begun to decrease even before 1348, though this has not been proven. The Great Famine of 1315-1317 affected the whole of northern Europe, from the Pyrenees to Russia; in Flanders, the most densely populated area, the death rate jumped to ten times its normal figure. The increasing precariousness of the food supply, together with congestion and the inadequacy of sanitary facilities in this region’s towns and cities, rendered the population more susceptible to epidemics, of which the Black Death was the worst.
黑死病是中世纪经济危机中最具戏剧性的事件，但它绝非这场危机的起源或原因。早在 13 世纪末，此前两三个世纪的人口增长已开始趋于平缓。14 世纪上半叶，农作物歉收与饥荒愈发频繁且严重。这些因素可能导致人口在 1348 年前就已开始减少——尽管尚未得到确证。1315-1317 年的大饥荒席卷了整个北欧，从比利牛斯山脉直至俄罗斯；在人口最稠密的佛兰德斯地区，死亡率飙升至正常水平的十倍。粮食供应日益不稳定，加之该地区城镇卫生设施拥挤不堪且严重不足，使得民众更易遭受瘟疫侵袭，而黑死病正是其中最致命的一场。

Toward the end of the thirteenth century the extensive forest clearings of earlier centuries came to a halt. In some areas, such as Italy and Spain, there is evidence that deforestation contributed to soil erosion and declining fertility. Farther north, peasants needed the remaining forest for firewood and grazing, but landlords opposed clearings because of their hunting privileges. Numerous disputes occurred, with occasional outbreaks of violence, between lords and peasants over the use of the forests. With no new land available from clearings, pastures, heaths, and meadows were converted to arable land. This meant a decrease in livestock and thus fewer proteins in the diet and less manure for fertilizer. Scarcity of fertilizer had been a persistent problem in the manorial economy, and the diminution of livestock aggravated it; crop yields declined even as more land was brought into cultivation. Efforts to increase productivity, such as the introduction of four-course and other, more complicated, crop rotations and the use of green manures, had limited effects in some regions, but the efforts were not made fast enough, and their effects were not substantial enough to offset the diminishing returns of overcropped marginal lands.
十三世纪末，持续数世纪的大规模森林开垦活动逐渐停止。在意大利、西班牙等地区，有证据表明森林砍伐导致了土壤侵蚀和肥力下降。北方农民需要保留森林获取柴火和放牧，但领主们为维护狩猎特权而反对开垦。围绕森林使用权，领主与农民之间爆发了诸多冲突，甚至偶发暴力事件。由于无法通过开垦获取新土地，牧场、荒原和草甸被转为耕地。这导致牲畜数量减少，民众饮食中蛋白质摄入降低，肥料来源也随之缩减。肥料短缺始终是庄园经济的顽疾，而牲畜减少使情况雪上加霜——即便耕种面积扩大，作物产量仍持续下降。 为提高生产力所做的努力，例如引入四茬轮作等更复杂的作物轮作制度以及使用绿肥，在某些地区效果有限。这些措施实施得不够迅速，其效果也不足以抵消过度开垦边际土地带来的收益递减。

In the expansive period of the medieval economy, as we have seen, there was a tendency on the part of landlords to commute labor services into money rents and to lease their demesnes to prosperous peasants. As population and urban growth continued, the prices of most agricultural commodities rose while wages fell. Many landlords, either to bolster their own declining revenues or to take advantage of the favorable price-wage ratio, again resorted to demesne farming, sometimes enlarging their demesnes at the expense of pasture and even peasant strips, and attempted to reimpose old labor services. Although the latter efforts met with strong resistance and had only limited success in western Europe, landlords in eastern Europe proved to be stronger. In any case, with the steady fall in wages it was economical for western lords to cultivate their lands with hired labor. Even substantial peasants could do this, thus becoming wealthier, but the great masses of the peasant population found themselves in steadily worsening straits. Partly for this reason, and also because of the increased burden of taxation levied by kings and other territorial rulers, social tensions increased and occasionally burst out in violence and revolt, as in the rising
正如我们所见，在中世纪经济扩张时期，地主阶层普遍存在将劳役地租折算为货币地租、并将自营地出租给富裕农民的倾向。随着人口增长和城市发展持续，多数农产品价格攀升而实际工资下降。许多地主为遏制收入颓势或利用有利的价薪比，再度转向自营地经营模式——有时甚至通过侵占牧场和农民条田来扩大自营地规模，并试图恢复旧式劳役制度。尽管这些举措在西欧遭遇强烈抵制且收效有限，但东欧地主阶层却展现出更强的掌控力。无论如何，随着工资水平持续走低，西欧领主采用雇佣劳动力耕作变得更为经济。即便中等农户也能借此积累财富，但广大农民群体的生存境况却持续恶化。 部分由于这一原因，同时也因为国王及其他领地统治者施加的赋税负担日益加重，社会矛盾不断激化，偶尔会爆发暴力冲突与叛乱，例如 1315-1317 年大饥荒期间
of Flemish peasants and workers against their lords and masters during the Great Famine of 1315-1317.
佛兰德斯地区的农民和工人反抗领主与统治者的起义。

The Black Death greatly intensified social tensions and conflict. The price-wage scissors abruptly reversed themselves; with the sharp drop in urban population and demand, the price of grain and other foodstuffs dropped precipitately, while wages rose because of the shortage of laborers. The first reaction of the authorities was to impose wage controls, but these merely exacerbated the hostility of peasants and workers, who avoided them when possible and revolted when serious efforts were made to enforce them. In the second half of the fourteenth century revolts, revolutions, and civil wars occurred in every part of Europe. Not all were inspired by wage controls, but all were related in one way or another to the sudden change in economic conditions brought on by famine, plague, and war. In 1358 peasants throughout France rose spontaneously against their lords and the government. In England a series of local uprisings preceded a great peasant revolt in 1381 in which a mixture of religious and economic issues almost allowed the revolutionists to triumph. In Italy the violence was generally not greater than that which accompanied the struggles for autonomy by the communes in the eleventh and twelfth centuries, but in 1378 the workers in the woolen industry of Florence temporarily gained control of the city and drove out “the fat people,” their masters. Similar revolts of peasants or workers, or both, flared in Germany, Spain and Portugal, Poland, and Russia. Without exception, whatever the extent of their initial success, they were put down with great brutality by the feudal nobility, the governments of the cities, or the emerging national monarchies.
黑死病极大地加剧了社会紧张与冲突。价格-工资剪刀差突然逆转：随着城市人口和需求的急剧下降，谷物等食品价格暴跌，而劳动力短缺又导致工资上涨。当局的第一反应是实施工资管制，但这反而激化了农民和工人的敌意——他们能躲则躲，当政府强力推行管制时便揭竿而起。十四世纪下半叶，起义、革命与内战席卷了整个欧洲。虽然并非所有动乱都源于工资管制，但无不与饥荒、瘟疫和战争导致的经济状况剧变存在直接或间接关联。1358 年，法国各地农民自发反抗领主与政府；英格兰则在 1381 年爆发大规模农民起义前，已发生多起地方暴动，这场混合着宗教与经济诉求的革命几乎取得胜利。 在意大利，暴力程度通常并未超过 11、12 世纪城邦争取自治权时的斗争烈度。但 1378 年，佛罗伦萨毛纺业工人曾短暂控制城市，驱逐了他们的雇主"肥人"。类似的农民或工人起义（或两者联合）在德国、西班牙、葡萄牙、波兰和俄罗斯相继爆发。这些起义无论初期取得多大成功，最终都无一例外遭到封建贵族、城市政府或新兴民族君主政体的残酷镇压。

Although the revolts seldom achieved their aims, in western Europe the changed economic conditions brought peasants freedom from manorial bondage. Despite the greater political and military strength of the ruling classes, they were unable either to enforce claims to labor services or to control wages for very long, since landlords competed with one another to attract peasants to till their land either for wages or for rent. In England, after the turmoil of the late fourteenth century, this resulted in the fifteenth century in what one authority called “the golden age of the English agricultural laborer.” Real wages-that is, the ratio of money wages to the prices of consumables-were higher than at any time previously or subsequently until the nineteenth century. Elsewhere in western Europe as well, market forces resulted in the dissolution of the vestigial bonds of serfdom and the rise of wages and living standards for peasants. Low grain prices, resulting from slack urban demand, and the relative abundance of land encouraged stock raising and a shift from grain to root and forage crops. The Black Death and the associated evils of the fourteenth century, dreadful though they were, proved to be a strong cathartic that prepared the way for a period of renewed growth and development beginning in the fifteenth century.
尽管起义很少实现其目标，但在西欧，经济形势的变化使农民摆脱了庄园制的束缚。尽管统治阶级拥有更强的政治和军事力量，但他们既无法长期强制推行劳役要求，也无法长期控制工资水平，因为地主们相互竞争，以工资或租金吸引农民耕种土地。在英格兰，经过 14 世纪末的动荡后，15 世纪出现了一位权威人士所称的"英国农业劳动者的黄金时代"。实际工资——即货币工资与消费品价格的比率——比此前或此后直至 19 世纪的任何时期都要高。在西欧其他地区，市场力量也导致农奴制残余束缚的瓦解，农民工资和生活水平得以提高。由于城市需求疲软导致的低粮价，以及土地的相对充裕，促进了畜牧业的发展，并推动从谷物种植向块根作物和饲料作物的转变。 黑死病及 14 世纪相关的灾难虽然可怕，却成为一剂强力泻药，为 15 世纪开始的新一轮增长发展时期铺平了道路。

In eastern Europe a different evolutionary course prevailed. The population there had always been less dense than in western Europe, the towns fewer and less populous, and the market forces weaker. After the Black Death town life virtually withered away, markets declined, and the economy reverted to a subsistence basis. Under these conditions the peasants had no alternative to landlord rule except to flee to unoccupied and uncharted lands, a course that was fraught with perils of its own. As a result the landlords, unchecked by any higher authority, forced the peasantry into a position of servitude unknown in western Europe since at least the ninth century.
东欧则经历了不同的发展轨迹。该地区人口密度始终低于西欧，城镇数量更少且规模较小，市场力量也更为薄弱。黑死病后，城镇生活几乎凋零，市场萎缩，经济退回到自给自足状态。在此环境下，农民除了逃往无人居住的未知土地（这一选择本身充满风险）外别无选择，只能接受领主统治。结果，在缺乏更高权威制约的情况下，领主们将农民压迫至农奴境地——这种奴役制度在西欧至少自 9 世纪以来就已绝迹。

Towns in western Europe, although severely checked by the plague, survived and eventually recovered. The total volume of production and trade throughout Europe was probably lower at the beginning of the fifteenth century than at the beginning of the fourteenth, but, at various times in the fifteenth century, in different parts of Europe, a recovery of population, production, and trade began, and by the beginning of the sixteenth century the totals of all these aggregates were probably greater than at any previous time. Meanwhile a significant realignment of forces had taken place. Guild organizations, reacting to the sharp fall in demand, tightened their regulations so as to control the supply more effectively in cartel terms; they restricted output, enforced working rules, and restricted new members to the sons or relatives of deceased masters. Merchants, seeking to rationalize their operations, invented or adopted double-entry bookkeeping and other methods of control. Fifteenth-century business firms could not rival the Bardi or Peruzzi companies in terms of size, but the largest of them, the Medici bank of Florence, as well as numerous others, adopted a form of organization similar to the modern holding company that reduced the risks of bankruptcy in the event of failure of a branch. Industrialists, faced with the rising costs of labor, sought new labor-saving methods of production or migrated to the countryside to escape the restrictive rules of the guilds.
西欧的城镇虽遭瘟疫重创，却得以幸存并最终复苏。十五世纪初整个欧洲的生产与贸易总量可能低于十四世纪初的水平，但在十五世纪的不同时期，欧洲各地陆续出现了人口、生产和贸易的复苏。到十六世纪初，这些领域的总体规模很可能已超越以往任何时期。与此同时，力量格局发生了重大重组：面对需求锐减，行会组织通过强化规章以卡特尔方式更有效地控制供给——它们限制产量、强制执行工作条例，并规定只有已故师傅的子嗣或亲属才能成为新成员；而商人群体为优化经营，则发明或采用了复式簿记等管控方法。 15 世纪的企业在规模上无法与巴尔迪或佩鲁齐公司相匹敌，但其中最大的佛罗伦萨美第奇银行以及众多其他企业，都采用了一种类似于现代控股公司的组织形式，这种形式降低了分支机构倒闭时破产的风险。面对劳动力成本上升的问题，工业家们寻求新的节省劳动力的生产方法，或迁移到乡村以逃避行会的限制性规定。

Regional shifts in production and trade also occurred as a result of the intensified competition. Some cities, such as Florence and Venice, did not shrink from using military force to subdue their rivals and extend their dominion over their neighbors. More subtly, the fair of Geneva gradually replaced in importance those of Champagne in the fourteenth century, although it suffered from the competition posed by Lyons before the end of the fifteenth century. Farther north, Antwerp gradually replaced Bruges as the principal terminus of Italian trade. The German Hansa became a formal organization in 1367, partly as a response to shrinking demand and the attempts of rivals to deprive its merchants of their privileges; for almost a century it dominated the trade of the Baltic and North seas, but before the end of the fifteenth century it was strongly challenged by Dutch and English traders, shippers, and fishing fleets. The Italian cities together maintained their preeminence in trade but lost ground to northern Europe, a prefiguration of further drastic changes in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries.
激烈的竞争也导致了生产和贸易的区域性转移。一些城市如佛罗伦萨和威尼斯，不惜动用武力征服对手，将统治范围扩展到周边地区。更微妙的是，14 世纪日内瓦集市逐渐取代了香槟集市的重要地位，不过在 15 世纪末之前又遭遇了里昂集市的竞争压力。在更北方的地区，安特卫普逐步取代布鲁日成为意大利贸易的主要终点站。1367 年汉萨同盟正式成立，部分原因是为了应对需求萎缩和竞争对手剥夺其商人特权的企图；近一个世纪里它主导了波罗的海和北海贸易，但在 15 世纪末之前就遭到荷兰与英国商人、船主及捕鱼船队的强力挑战。意大利诸城邦虽共同保持了贸易优势，但已不敌北欧地区，这预示了十六、十七世纪更为剧烈的格局变迁。

Islam, the latest of the world’s great religions, originated in Arabia in the seventh century CE. Its founder, the prophet Mohammed, had been a merchant before he became a religious and political leader. By the time of his death in 632 he had united under his rule virtually all of the Arabian Peninsula. Soon after his death his followers exploded with the fury of a desert whirlwind and within a hundred years had conquered a large empire stretching from central Asia across the Middle East and North Africa to Spain. After a few centuries of relative quiescence and the break-up of the empire, known as the Caliphate, into a number of successor states, the Muslims (followers of Islam) expanded again in the twelfth and following centuries (Fig. 4-1), spreading their religion and their customs to central Asia, India, Ceylon, Indonesia,
伊斯兰教作为世界主要宗教中最晚兴起的一支，于公元 7 世纪发源于阿拉伯半岛。其创立者先知穆罕默德在成为宗教与政治领袖前曾是一名商人。至 632 年逝世时，他几乎统一了整个阿拉伯半岛。他去世后不久，其追随者便以沙漠旋风般的迅猛之势向外扩张，在百年内建立起横跨中亚、中东、北非直至西班牙的庞大帝国。经过数个世纪的相对沉寂，这个被称为"哈里发国"的帝国分裂为若干后继政权。12 世纪及其后数百年间（图 4-1），穆斯林（伊斯兰教信徒）再度扩张，将宗教与习俗传播至中亚、印度、锡兰、印度尼西亚、

Ficure 4-1. The Muslim world, about 1200
图 4-1. 约 1200 年的穆斯林世界版图

Anatolia, and sub-Saharan Africa. By this time the Arabs were a small minority among the millions of the faithful, but the Arabic language, in which the Muslim holy book, the Koran, was written, was the common language for Islamic civilization, although other languages, notably Persian and Turkish, were also used.
安纳托利亚以及撒哈拉以南非洲。此时阿拉伯人在数以百万计的信徒中已属少数，但作为伊斯兰圣典《古兰经》书写载体的阿拉伯语仍是伊斯兰文明的通用语言，不过波斯语、土耳其语等其他语言也被广泛使用。

The original Arabs were primarily nomadic, although some practiced oasis agriculture and a few urban centers, such as Mecca, existed. The lands they conquered were, on the whole, only slightly less arid than Arabia, but they did contain the two great cradles of civilization, the Tigris-Euphrates and the Nile valleys. There and elsewhere the Muslims practiced irrigation agriculture that, in some areas (e.g., southern Spain and Mesopotamia), reached high levels of sophistication and productivity. Their conquests also brought them great cities, including Alexandria, Cairo, and eventually Constantinople, which they renamed Istanbul. In the end Islam developed as a predominantly urban civilization, although many Muslims, Arabs and others, remained nomadic, tending their herds of sheep, goats, horses, or camelsrarely cattle, and no pigs at all, as Mohammed had forbidden the consumption of pork.
最初的阿拉伯人主要是游牧民族，尽管有些人从事绿洲农业，也存在少数城市中心，如麦加。他们征服的土地总体上只比阿拉伯半岛略为湿润，但这些土地却孕育着两大文明摇篮——底格里斯-幼发拉底河流域与尼罗河谷。在这些地区及其他地方，穆斯林发展起灌溉农业，在某些区域（如西班牙南部和美索不达米亚）达到了高度精细化和高产出的水平。他们的征服还带来了伟大城市，包括亚历山大、开罗，以及最终被更名为伊斯坦布尔的君士坦丁堡。最终伊斯兰发展成为一种以城市为主的文明，尽管许多穆斯林——阿拉伯人及其他民族——仍保持着游牧传统，放牧着绵羊、山羊、马匹或骆驼（极少饲养牛，完全不养猪，因穆罕默德禁止食用猪肉）。

Although the agricultural potential of their territory was limited, its location conferred great commercial possibilities. The heartland of Islamic civilization lay between the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea and opened onto the Indian Ocean. It also contained the great caravan routes between the Mediterranean and China. Because Mohammed himself had been a merchant, Islam did not regard mercantile pursuits as inferior activities; on the contrary, it regarded merchants as worthy of honor and esteem. Although usury was forbidden, Muslim merchants devised numerous intricate credit instruments, including letters of credit and bills of exchange, to facilitate their trade. For hundreds of years the Arabs and their fellowreligionists served as the principal intermediaries of the trade between Europe and Asia. In the process they greatly facilitated the diffusion of technology. Many elements of Chinese technology, including the magnetic compass and the art of making paper, reached Europe by means of the Arabs.
尽管其领土的农业潜力有限，但地理位置赋予了巨大的商业可能性。伊斯兰文明的核心地带位于波斯湾与地中海之间，面向印度洋敞开。这里还包含了地中海与中国之间的重要商队路线。由于穆罕默德本人曾是商人，伊斯兰教并不将商业追求视为低等活动；相反，它认为商人值得尊敬与推崇。虽然高利贷被禁止，穆斯林商人仍设计了众多复杂的信用工具，包括信用证和汇票，以促进贸易往来。数百年来，阿拉伯人及其同信仰者充当了欧亚贸易的主要中间人。在此过程中，他们极大地促进了技术传播。包括指南针和造纸术在内的许多中国技术元素，都是通过阿拉伯人传入欧洲的。

The Arabs also introduced new crops, such as rice, sugarcane, cotton, citrus fruit, watermelons, and other fruits and vegetables. In some cases they obtained these crops from India or elsewhere in Asia or Africa and subsequently diffused them to Europe. One authority has referred to the Arabs’ agricultural achievement as a “medieval green revolution.” It seems likely that between the eighth and tenth centuries the world of Islam experienced a surge of population and economic growth similar to the first logistic of medieval Europe.
阿拉伯人还引进了水稻、甘蔗、棉花、柑橘类水果、西瓜等新型农作物以及其他果蔬。这些作物部分源自印度或亚洲、非洲其他地区，随后被他们传播至欧洲。有学者将阿拉伯人的农业成就称为"中世纪绿色革命"。很可能在 8 至 10 世纪期间，伊斯兰世界经历了人口激增与经济增长，其态势与中世纪欧洲首次人口经济大发展颇为相似。

The Arabs traveled and traded by both land and sea. The Arabian Sea, the northern extension of the Indian Ocean between the Arabian Peninsula and the Indian subcontinent, is aptly named, for it was dominated by Arabian merchants and sailors like the legendary Sindbad. Some went as far as China, whose ports contained colonies of Muslim merchants. Muslims also used rivers for transport where possible and supplemented them, especially in Mesopotamia, with a dense network of canals. Overland, the camel, that “ship of the desert,” was favored for long-distance carriage travel, with horses, mules, and donkeys used for shorter trips. Wheeled transport disappeared from the Middle East, not to reappear until the nineteenth century. Huge caravans of hundreds, even thousands, of camels were not unusual.
阿拉伯人通过陆路和海路进行旅行与贸易。阿拉伯海作为印度洋向北延伸、介于阿拉伯半岛和印度次大陆之间的水域，其命名恰如其分——这片海域曾长期由阿拉伯商人与水手主宰，传奇航海家辛巴达便是其中代表。部分商人甚至远航至中国，当时中国港口已形成穆斯林商人聚居区。穆斯林还充分利用河流运输，并在两河流域等地修建了密集的运河网络作为补充。陆路运输中，被誉为"沙漠之舟"的骆驼是长途商旅的首选，短途则多用马匹、骡子和毛驴。有轮交通工具从中东地区消失，直到十九世纪才重新出现。由数百甚至数千头骆驼组成的庞大商队在当时并不罕见。

One of the principles of Islam was the jihad, or holy war against pagans. It accounted in part for the Muslims’ remarkable success in winning converts, since defeated enemies were given the choice of converting or being killed. Toward Jews and Christians, however, the Muslims had a different policy. Since they were also monotheistic, the Muslims tolerated-and taxed-them (perhaps another reason for their success in making converts in those communities). The Jews, in particular, enjoyed great freedom under Islam. Jewish merchants had family members or agents scattered throughout the Islamic world from Spain to Indonesia. Much of our knowledge of medieval Islam, in fact, comes from the Cairo Genizah, a great archive where any piece of paper on which the name of God (Allah or Jahweh) was written-and letters, even business letters between Jewish merchants, usually invoked the blessings of God-was deposited.
伊斯兰教的原则之一就是圣战，即对异教徒发动的神圣战争。这在一定程度上解释了穆斯林在争取皈依者方面取得的惊人成功，因为战败的敌人只有两个选择：要么改信伊斯兰教，要么被处死。然而，对于犹太教徒和基督徒，穆斯林则采取了不同的政策。由于他们同样信奉一神教，穆斯林选择宽容对待——并对其征税（这或许也是他们在这些群体中成功争取皈依者的另一个原因）。尤其是犹太人，在伊斯兰统治下享有极大的自由。犹太商人将家族成员或代理人分散安置在从西班牙到印度尼西亚的整个伊斯兰世界。事实上，我们对中世纪伊斯兰世界的许多了解都来自开罗的格尼扎档案库——这个庞大的档案库收藏了任何写有神名（安拉或耶和华）的纸张，而犹太商人之间的信件（甚至是商业信函）通常都会祈求神的祝福。

As a result of their conquests in the Greek-speaking Byzantine (Eastern Roman) Empire, the Arabs took over much of the learning of classical Greece. During the European Middle Ages they became, along with the Chinese, the world’s leaders in scientific and philosophic thought. Many ancient Greek authors are known to us today only through Arabic translations. Modern mathematics is based on the Arabic system of notation, and algebra was an Arab invention. During the intellectual revival of western Europe in the eleventh and twelfth centuries many Christian scholars went to Cordoba and other Muslim intellectual centers to study classical philosophy and science. At the same time, Christian merchants learned Muslim commercial practices and techniques. Although the pope officially forbade trade with Muslims, Christian merchants-the Venetians in particular-paid little attention.
由于阿拉伯人在讲希腊语的拜占庭（东罗马）帝国的征服，他们接管了古典希腊的大部分学术成果。在欧洲中世纪时期，阿拉伯人与中国人一起成为世界科学和哲学思想的领导者。许多古希腊作家的作品今天只有通过阿拉伯语译本才为我们所知。现代数学建立在阿拉伯数字系统之上，而代数是阿拉伯人的发明。在 11 世纪和 12 世纪西欧的学术复兴期间，许多基督教学者前往科尔多瓦和其他穆斯林学术中心学习古典哲学和科学。与此同时，基督教商人学习了穆斯林的商业实践和技术。尽管教皇正式禁止与穆斯林进行贸易，但基督教商人——尤其是威尼斯人——对此置若罔闻。

Among the peoples who accepted Islam as their religion were a number of nomadic Turkish tribes of central Asia. Lured south and west by the wealth of the Arab Caliphate, they came first as raiders and looters but eventually settled down as conquerors. One of them, Tamerlane (Timur the Lame), known for his ruthless ferocity, conquered Persia (modern Iran) at the end of the fourteenth century. Tamerlane’s empire was short-lived, but another conqueror, Ismael, at the beginning of the sixteenth century founded the Safavid dynasty, which ruled Persia until the eighteenth century.
在皈依伊斯兰教的民族中，包括中亚一些游牧的突厥部落。他们被阿拉伯哈里发国的财富所吸引，向南和向西迁徙，起初以劫掠者身份出现，最终以征服者姿态定居下来。其中一位以残暴著称的跛子帖木儿（Tamerlane），在十四世纪末征服了波斯（今伊朗）。帖木儿的帝国昙花一现，但另一位征服者伊斯梅尔于十六世纪初建立了萨法维王朝，该王朝统治波斯直至十八世纪。

The most successful of the Turkish conquerors were the Ottomans, who traced their origins to the Sultan Osman (1259-1326). Osman had wrested a small territory in northwestern Anatolia (Asia Minor) from the decrepit Byzantine Empire, which had never really recovered from its conquest by Western crusaders and the brief tenure of the so-called Latin Empire (1204-1261). The Ottomans gradually extended their hold over all of Anatolia and in 1354 obtained a toehold in Europe west of Constantinople, which they finally conquered in 1453 (Fig. 4-2). They continued to expand in the sixteenth century, taking over the lands in the Near and Middle East that the Arabs had taken earlier from the Byzantine Empire, as well as North Africa; in Europe they conquered Greece and the Balkans, and in 1683 they reached the gates of Vienna before they were driven back into Hungary.
土耳其征服者中最成功的是奥斯曼人，其起源可追溯至苏丹奥斯曼（1259-1326 年）。奥斯曼从衰败的拜占庭帝国手中夺取了安纳托利亚（小亚细亚）西北部的一小块领土——这个帝国自西方十字军征服及短暂的"拉丁帝国"统治时期（1204-1261 年）后始终未能真正恢复元气。奥斯曼人逐步将势力扩展至整个安纳托利亚，并于 1354 年在君士坦丁堡以西的欧洲获得立足点，最终在 1453 年攻陷该城（图 4-2）。十六世纪他们继续扩张，接管了阿拉伯人早先从拜占庭帝国夺取的近东和中东土地，以及北非地区；在欧洲他们征服了希腊和巴尔干半岛，1683 年兵临维也纳城下后才被击退回匈牙利。

Figure 4-2. Growth of the Ottoman Empire, 1307-1683.
图 4-2. 奥斯曼帝国版图扩张（1307-1683 年）

The vast empire controlled by the Turks did not constitute a unified economy or common market. Although its many provinces had varied climates and resources, the high cost of transport prevented true economic integration. Each region within the empire continued the economic activities it had practiced before conquest, with little regional specialization. Agriculture was the principal occupation of the great majority of the sultan’s subjects. The empire endured, unlike most of its predecessors, because the Turks established a regular, relatively equitable system of taxation that provided ample revenue to support the central government’s bureaucracy and army. Control and order were maintained by Turkish officials who were stationed in the provinces and given rents from specified parcels of land, a system similar in some respects to medieval European feudalism.
土耳其人统治的庞大帝国并未形成统一的经济体或共同市场。尽管其众多行省拥有多样化的气候与资源，但高昂的运输成本阻碍了真正的经济一体化。帝国内每个地区延续着被征服前的经济活动模式，区域专业化程度极低。农业构成了苏丹绝大多数臣民的主要生计。与大多数前朝不同，这个帝国得以延续，是因为土耳其人建立了一套规范且相对公平的税收制度，为中央政府官僚体系与军队提供了充足财源。控制与秩序由派驻各省的土耳其官员维持，他们从特定地块获取租金——这套制度在某些方面类似于中世纪欧洲的封建体系。

In Europe the Turks suffered from a somewhat exaggerated reputation for rapacity and violence. In fact, they behaved rather benignly toward their subjects as long as the tax revenues rolled in and no threats of revolt or rebellion existed. They made few efforts to convert their Christian subjects in Europe to Islam, except in the special case of the janissaries, elite soldiers who were recruited from Christian households as children and given intensive training under strict military discipline. Jews were also tolerated; when Ferdinand and Isabella expelled the Jews from Spain in 1492 (see pp. 143-144) many of this group’s educated professionals and skilled artisans were happy to accept service with the sultan. By the end of the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent in 1566, all the lands of the eastern Mediterranean were under Ottoman rule, which focused on maintaining the splendor of Istanbul and the sultan’s residences through regular tributes remitted from the outlying provinces. Other cities that had seen periods of prosperity during the Medieval Climatic Optimum declined in population and wealth relative to Cairo and Istanbul, becoming mere tributary outposts for the expanding territory of the Ottoman Empire, which reached its maximum extent early in the seventeenth century.
在欧洲，土耳其人因贪婪与暴力而背负着些许夸大的恶名。实际上，只要税收源源不断且没有叛乱威胁，他们对臣民的态度相当宽厚。除耶尼切里军团这一特例外——这些精锐士兵自幼从基督教家庭征召，在严格军纪下接受强化训练——奥斯曼帝国鲜少强迫欧洲的基督教臣民改信伊斯兰教。犹太人也得到宽容对待；当 1492 年费迪南与伊莎贝拉将犹太人逐出西班牙时（参见 143-144 页），该群体中许多受过教育的专业人士和熟练工匠欣然投奔苏丹麾下。至 1566 年"壮丽者"苏莱曼大帝统治末期，东地中海所有土地均纳入奥斯曼版图，其统治核心在于通过边远行省定期进贡来维持伊斯坦布尔与苏丹宫殿的辉煌。 在中世纪气候适宜期曾经历繁荣的其他城市，其人口与财富规模相较于开罗和伊斯坦布尔逐渐衰退，最终沦为奥斯曼帝国扩张领土的附属前哨站——该帝国版图于十七世纪初达到极盛。

The civilization of China, dating from near the beginning of the second millennium BCE, exhibits one of the most self-contained developments of any civilization. Only rarely did foreign-“barbarian”-influences intrude, and when they did they were usually quickly absorbed by and integrated with Chinese traditions. Dynasties rose and fell, sometimes separated by periods of anarchy and “warring states,” but the distinctive Chinese civilization, while continuing to develop, did so along lines that seem almost preordained. Confucianism (which was a philosophy, not a religion) had been fully elaborated as early as the fifth century 8CE. Although other philosophies and religions, such as Taoism and Buddhism, also flourished, they did not displace Confucianism as the philosophical basis of Chinese civilization. The bureaucratic tradition of government, carried on by mandarins, or senior civil servants selected by competitive examinations and steeped in the Confucian philosophy, was also established at an early date. In theory, the emperor was all-powerful, and some emperors used their power to the fullest extent, but mostly their wishes were carried out, and frequently shaped, by the mandarins.
中华文明始于公元前两千年左右，展现出所有文明中最具独立性的发展历程。外来的"蛮夷"影响鲜少渗入，即便偶有传入，也往往迅速被中华传统所吸收融合。王朝兴衰更迭，时而陷入"战国"纷争的无政府状态，但独特的中华文明始终沿着近乎命定的轨迹持续发展。早在公元前五世纪，儒家思想（作为一种哲学而非宗教）就已形成完整体系。尽管道教、佛教等其他思想流派也曾兴盛一时，却始终未能取代儒家作为中华文明哲学根基的地位。由科举选拔、深谙儒家经典的文官所传承的官僚治理传统，亦在文明早期便已确立。 理论上，皇帝拥有至高无上的权力，某些帝王也确实将这种权力发挥到极致，但多数情况下，他们的意志是通过官僚体系来执行，甚至常常被这个体系所塑造。

From the Han dynasty right on through the final Ching dynasty that finally established itself in the last half of the seventeenth century, entry to the mandarin class was open to whoever could pass the competitive examinations held every three years. The incentive to enter the governing elite through excelling in learning the classic Confucian precepts for maintaining good government and general prosperity meant that literacy was widespread, at least among men. Even if very few applicants could eventually reach the top ranks of the sele imperial bureaucracy, their claim to authority was generally acknowledged and provided legitimacy for the continuation of a given dynasty-as long as times were good and competition was open. Widespread literacy even among the failed candidates, moreover, helped foster the diffusion of innovations in agriculture, trade, and artisanal crafts throughout China.
自汉朝以降，直至十七世纪后半叶最终确立统治的清朝，任何能通过三年一度科举考试者皆可跻身士大夫阶层。通过精研儒家经典治国安邦之道来进入统治精英阶层的激励机制，使得识字率（至少男性群体中）得到广泛普及。即便最终能晋升帝国官僚体系顶层者凤毛麟角，但只要时局稳定且选拔机制公开，他们的权威主张通常会被普遍认可，并为王朝延续提供合法性。此外，即便落第者中也普遍具备的文化素养，更有助于农业革新、商业发展和手工业技艺在整个中国的传播。

The original cradle of Chinese civilization was the middle stretch of the Yellow River Valley, where the fertile loess soil deposited by the winds from central Asia permitted easy cultivation. Its first material basis was millet, a grain native to the region; this was later supplemented by wheat and barley from the Middle East and still later by rice from Southeast Asia. Chinese agriculture has always been extremely labor intensive, almost “garden-style,” making extensive use of irrigation. Draft animals were not introduced until very late. About 1000 CE, however, a superior variety of rice was introduced that permitted double-cropping, which greatly increased productivity. In some favored areas of southern China, the Medieval Climatic Optimum made possible even triple-cropping, in which two successions of rice followed by one crop of wheat were cultivated on a given paddy.
中华文明最初的摇篮是黄河流域中游地区，那里由中亚风沙堆积而成的肥沃黄土易于耕作。其最初的物质基础是原产于该地区的小米，后来补充了来自中东的小麦和大麦，再后来又引入了东南亚的水稻。中国农业始终保持着极高的劳动密集度，近乎"园艺式"耕作，并广泛采用灌溉技术。直到很晚才引入役畜。然而约公元 1000 年左右，优质水稻品种的引入使得一年两熟成为可能，极大提高了生产力。在中国南方部分适宜地区，中世纪温暖期甚至实现了一年三熟——在同一块水田里先连续种植两季水稻，再种一季小麦。

On the basis of this productive agriculture some urban growth occurred and a variety of skilled crafts emerged. For example, bronze working was developed to a very high level. The manufacture of silk cloth originated in China at a very early date and was passed to the ancient Romans over the caravan route through central Asia, the Great Silk Road; China was consequently known to the Romans as Sina or Serica (the land of silk). Porcelain (“chinaware”) is also a Chinese invention, as are paper and printing. (The Chinese, in fact, were already using paper money when Charlemagne minted the first silver pennies. The result, predictable for an economist, was overissue and inflation. By the time the West discovered paper money, the Chinese had experienced several cycles of inflation and monetary collapse.) The magnetic compass, discovered by the Chinese, probably reached the West by way of the Arabs. In general, the Chinese reached a fairly high level of scientific and technical development well in advance of the West. In spite of its technological and scientific precocity, however, China did not experience a technological breakthrough into an industrial era. Craft products were destined for the use of the government, the imperial court, and the thin stratum of landowning aristocrats. The peasant masses were much too poor to provide a market for such exotic wares. Even iron, in whose production the Chinese also excelled, was used only for weapons and decorative art, not for tools. Moreover, merchants and commerce had very low status in the Confucian philosophy. Those few merchants who did accumulate some wealth used it to buy land and join the ranks of the aristocracy.
在这种高产农业的基础上，城市开始兴起，各类手工技艺蓬勃发展。例如青铜器制作工艺达到了极高水准。丝绸织造技术早在远古时期便起源于中国，后经中亚商队路线——伟大的丝绸之路——传至古罗马，因此罗马人称中国为"Sina"或"Serica"（丝绸之国）。瓷器（"chinaware"）与造纸术、印刷术同样是中国人的发明。（事实上，当查理曼大帝铸造首批银便士时，中国人早已使用纸币。经济学家可以预见的结果是：货币超发引发通货膨胀。当西方世界发现纸币时，中国已历经数次通胀与货币体系崩溃的循环。）中国人发明的指南针很可能是通过阿拉伯人传入西方。总体而言，中国科学技术的发展水平曾长期领先西方世界。然而尽管具备这种科技先发优势，中国却未能实现向工业时代的技术突破。 手工制品专供政府、朝廷及少数地主贵族阶层使用。广大农民贫困至极，根本无力消费这些珍奇物品。即便是中国同样擅长的冶铁技术，其产品也仅用于武器和装饰艺术，而非农具生产。此外，儒家思想中商贾与商业的地位极其低下，少数积攒财富的商人最终都会购置田产，跻身贵族行列。

Meanwhile, because of China’s fertile population as well as its fertile land, the population grew and spread. From an estimated 50 million around the year 600 CE , the population roughly doubled in the next 600 years. It spread down the Yellow
与此同时，得益于肥沃的土地与旺盛的人口繁衍，中国人口持续增长并向外扩张。自公元 600 年约五千万的人口基数起，其后六百年间人口规模近乎翻倍。移民潮沿着黄河流域不断向南推进

River to the sea and southward to the Yangtse Valley and beyond. Whereas in the seventh century about three-quarters of the population lived in northern China, by the beginning of the thirteenth century more than 60 percent lived in central and southern China. To connect these centers the government built an elaborate network of roads and especially canals. The Grand Canal, connecting the Yellow and Yangtse rivers, was a stupendous engineering feat. The main purpose of this transportation network was to enable the government to maintain order and collect taxes and tribute, but the canal also facilitated interregional trade and led to an elementary geographical specialization of labor. By 1500, when China’s population had recovered from the devastating effects of the combination of plague, famines, floods, and the Mongol invasions, Beijing, the northern capital of the Ming dynasty, was by far the largest city in the world, with an estimated population of 672,000 . With the addition of the southern capital of Nanjing and the major cities of Hangzhou at the southern terminus of the Grand Canal and Guangzhou at the mouth of the Pearl River, China was home to four of the largest ten cities in the world.
河流向南延伸至长江流域及更远地区。7 世纪时约四分之三人口居住在中国北方，而到 13 世纪初，超过 60%的人口已迁居中南部。为联通这些区域，政府修建了复杂的道路网络，尤其是运河体系。连接黄河与长江的大运河堪称工程奇迹。该交通网络的首要目的是维持统治秩序、征收赋税，同时也促进了跨区域贸易，形成了初步的地域分工。至 1500 年，当中国人口从瘟疫、饥荒、洪灾和蒙古入侵的多重打击中恢复时，明朝北方都城北京已成为当时世界最大都市，估计人口达 67.2 万。 随着南方都城南京、大运河南端终点杭州以及珠江入海口的广州等大城市的加入，中国拥有当时全球十大城市中的四座。

In the thirteenth century a series of events occurred that profoundly affected not only China but virtually the entire Eurasian landmass, including western Europe. This was the eruption of the Mongols under Genghis Khan from their homeland of Mongolia, north of China (Fig. 4-3). In little more than half a century Genghis and his successors created the largest continuous land empire the world has ever seen, stretching from the Pacific Ocean in the east to Poland and Hungary in the west. In the process they established their countrymen as rulers in central Asia, China, Russia, and the Middle East, overturning the Arab Caliphate in 1258 and leaving Baghdad in ruins. Although their name is almost synonymous with rapine and violence, the Mongols generally did what barbarian conquerors usually do: they settled down and adopted the civilization of their conquered hosts. In central Asia and the Middle East they converted to Islam and melded with their Turkic allies and the local indigenous populations. In Russia, however, they did not adopt Orthodox Christianity but maintained their own distinctive lifestyle until 1480, when the Grand Duke of Moscow, Ivan III, revolted and threw off the “Mongol yoke.” In China they followed a middle course: they set themselves up as the Yuan dynasty (1260-1368) in the Chinese fashion and adopted Chinese ways but attempted to maintain their ethnic distinctiveness, which led to their overthrow after little more than a century.
十三世纪发生的一系列事件不仅深刻影响了中国，也几乎波及整个欧亚大陆，包括西欧。这便是成吉思汗率领蒙古人从其位于中国以北的蒙古故土（图 4-3）发起的扩张。在短短半个多世纪里，成吉思汗及其继承者建立了史上最庞大的连续陆上帝国，疆域东起太平洋，西至波兰与匈牙利。在此过程中，他们让同族成为中亚、中国、俄罗斯和中东的统治者，于 1258 年推翻阿拉伯哈里发政权，使巴格达沦为废墟。尽管蒙古人几乎成为掠夺与暴力的代名词，但他们总体上遵循了蛮族征服者的常规做法：定居下来并接受被征服者的文明。在中亚与中东地区，他们皈依伊斯兰教，并与突厥盟友及当地原住民逐渐融合。 然而在俄罗斯，他们并未皈依东正教，而是保持着自己独特的生活方式，直到 1480 年莫斯科大公伊凡三世起义推翻"蒙古桎梏"。在中国他们选择了折中路线：以中原王朝模式建立元朝（1260-1368 年），采用汉制却试图保持民族特性，这导致其统治仅维持一个多世纪就被推翻。

It was Kublai Khan, Genghis’s grandson and fifth successor, whom Marco Polo encountered on his epic journey. By that time the Mongols had given up their warlike ways and maintained peace and order throughout their domain. Trade between the Mediterranean and China flourished even more than in the days of the Roman Empire-more than at any other time, in fact, until the nineteenth century. Another Italian trader, a contemporary of Polo, described the Great Silk Road as “perfectly safe by day and night.” This road, however, was also the route by which the flea carrying the bacillus Yersinia pestis made its way from feasting on the marmots and great gerbils in the highlands of western China to the shores of the Black Sea in 1347 to launch the Black Death.
马可·波罗在传奇旅程中遇见的正是成吉思汗之孙、第五代继承者忽必烈汗。此时的蒙古人已摒弃尚武传统，在整个帝国疆域内维持着和平秩序。地中海与中国之间的贸易繁荣程度甚至超越了罗马帝国时期——事实上，这种盛况直到十九世纪才被再度超越。另一位与波罗同时代的意大利商人曾如此描述丝绸之路："无论昼夜都绝对安全"。然而正是这条通路，在 1347 年成为携带鼠疫杆菌的跳蚤的传播路径——它们从中国西部高原以旱獭和大沙鼠为食，最终蔓延至黑海沿岸，由此引发了黑死病大流行。

The Ming dynasty (1368-1644) reestablished traditional Chinese customs, especially Confucianism and the mandarin system, after the fall of the Mongols. The first
明朝（1368-1644 年）在蒙古政权覆灭后重建了中华传统礼制，尤其复兴了儒家思想与科举官僚体系。开国皇帝

Figure 4-3. The Mongol Empire and its neighbors, about 1300.
图 4-3. 约公元 1300 年的蒙古帝国及其周边政权
half of the Ming era also witnessed considerable economic and demographic growth. During the last years of Mongol rule, and during the revolt against them, roads and canals had fallen into disrepair and the population had declined as a result of floods, drought, and warfare. The government moved energetically to restore the broken transportation links, and with relative peace the population began to grow again, surpassing 100 million by about 1450 . In 1421 the Mings moved their capital from Nanking to Peking (Beijing) in the far north, thus stimulating north-south trade. The cultivation of cotton and manufacture of cotton cloth were introduced. Regional specialization became more pronounced. Most remarkable of all, the Chinese began to trade overseas. Previously the Chinese had left foreign trade in the hands of foreign merchants, but in the early years of the Ming era Chinese ships and merchants traded with Japan, the Philippines (as they later became known), Southeast Asia, the Malay Peninsula, and Indonesia. In the first quarter of the fifteenth century a Chinese admiral, Cheng-ho, led large naval expeditions into the Indian Ocean. The expeditions left colonies of Chinese settlers at ports in Ceylon, India, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the east coast of Africa. Then suddenly, in 1433, the emperor forbade further voyages, decreed the destruction of oceangoing ships, and prohibited his subjects from traveling abroad. The colonies were left to wither away. One wonders how the course of world history might have differed had the Chinese still been in the Indian Ocean when the Portuguese arrived at the end of the century.
明朝前半期也经历了显著的经济与人口增长。在蒙古统治末期及反抗暴政期间，道路运河年久失修，水患、旱灾与战乱导致人口锐减。明政府大力修复损毁的交通网络，随着社会趋于安定，人口在 1450 年前后重新突破一亿大关。1421 年朝廷将都城从南京迁至北方边陲的北京，此举极大促进了南北贸易往来。棉花种植与棉纺织技术得到推广，区域专业化程度日益加深。最令人瞩目的是，中国人开始涉足海外贸易——此前外贸长期由外商主导，但明初中国商船已与日本、菲律宾（后称）、东南亚、马来半岛及印尼开展贸易。十五世纪前二十五年间，郑和将军更率领庞大舰队七下西洋，远航至印度洋海域。 这些远航船队在锡兰、印度、波斯湾、红海和非洲东海岸的港口留下了中国移民的聚居地。然而 1433 年，皇帝突然下令禁止继续出海，诏令销毁远洋船只，并禁止臣民出国。这些海外聚居地逐渐凋零。不禁令人遐想：若葡萄牙人在世纪末抵达印度洋时，中国人仍活跃于此，世界历史的进程将会如何改写。

Korea and Japan each developed in the wake of Chinese civilization, but Korea’s development was earlier than Japan’s and much more advanced before the Mongol invasions of the thirteenth century. During the preceding favorable Medieval Climatic Optimum, the Korean Peninsula was unified under rulers who claimed imperial authority much like the Chinese emperor’s “mandate of heaven” while also paying tribute to keep Chinese armies at bay. Korea’s rulers encouraged similar advances to those made by the Song dynasty in agriculture, metallurgy, and trade. The first known use of movable metal type occurred in 1234 ce during the Goryeo dynasty ( $918-1392\mathrm{CE}$$918-1392\mathrm{CE}$918-1392CE918-1392 \mathrm{CE} ), which also established flourishing ceramics and paper industries.
朝鲜和日本都曾在中国文明的影响下发展，但朝鲜的发展早于日本，且在 13 世纪蒙古入侵前远比日本先进。在此前有利的中世纪气候适宜期，朝鲜半岛在统治者领导下实现统一，这些统治者效仿中国皇帝的"天命"宣称帝权，同时通过朝贡使中国军队保持距离。朝鲜统治者鼓励农业、冶金和贸易方面的进步，与宋朝的成就相似。已知最早的金属活字使用发生在 1234 年高丽王朝时期，该王朝还建立了繁荣的陶瓷和造纸产业。

Japan remained a fragmented collection of islands during most of this period, missing out on the agricultural advances taking place in China and Korea until the beginning of the fourteenth century. In Japan’s latitudes favored by the Medieval Climatic Optimum, there also occurred no fewer than twelve eruptions of Mt. Fuji in the period between 800 and 1083. Only during the following centuries of volcanic quiescence could Japan’s population continue to grow, which it did from a very low base of around 5.75 million to 17 million by 1500 . Kublai Khan attempted invasions of Japan from Korea in 1274 and 1281, but after the Mongols were driven back to their boats in August 1281, a typhoon came up that destroyed the remains of the Mongol fleet. The Japanese called it kamikaze (“divine winds”) and came to believe their islands were divinely protected. In the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries Japanese pirates ravaged the coasts of China and Korea. Early in the seventeenth century, however, after the Tokugawa shogunate had consolidated its rule and unified Japan, the shogun, in imitation of the Ming emperor, prohibited Japanese from traveling abroad (on penalty of death if they returned) and forbade the construction of oceangoing ships.
在这一时期的大部分时间里，日本仍是一个分散的列岛集合体，直到十四世纪初才赶上中国和朝鲜半岛的农业进步。处于中世纪气候适宜期有利纬度的日本，在 800 至 1083 年间还经历了至少十二次富士山喷发。直到随后几个世纪的火山休眠期，日本人口才得以持续增长——从约 575 万的极低基数增至 1500 年的 1700 万。忽必烈曾于 1274 年和 1281 年试图从朝鲜半岛入侵日本，但当 1281 年 8 月蒙古军队被击退回船舰后，一场台风摧毁了蒙古舰队的残余力量。日本人称之为"神风"，并逐渐相信他们的列岛受到神明庇佑。十五至十六世纪期间，日本海盗肆虐中国和朝鲜半岛沿海地区。 然而，17 世纪初，德川幕府巩固统治并统一日本后，幕府将军效仿明朝皇帝，禁止日本人出国（违者回国将处死刑），同时禁止建造远洋船只。