A big week so far — with significant changes developing:
到目前为止，这是重要的一周——正在发生重大变化：
📌 Key Charts are triggering actionable signals — watching closely.
📌 关键图表正在触发可操作的信号——请密切关注。
📌 An important update to the main signals we’ve been tracking.
📌 我们一直在跟踪的主要信号的重要更新。
📌 Highlight on opportunities and areas of concern.
📌 突出机会和关注领域。
Let’s get started: 让我们开始吧：
PRECIOUS METALS 贵金属
Gold continues to lead the way higher.
黄金继续领涨。
Gold doesn’t have to run straight up from here, but the Trend configuration is very constructive — Buy the dips.
黄金不必从这里直线上涨，但趋势配置非常有建设性——逢低买入。
GDX remains a high priority setup as discussed in recent reports:
正如最近报告中所讨论的，GDX 仍然是一个高优先级设置：
Nice initial breakout, ideally can start the process of turning the 50dma UP as well — big intermediate Trend potential building here.
良好的初步突破，理想情况下也可以启动 50 日均线向上的过程——这里有巨大的中间趋势潜力。
Silver also remains a high priority setup — and the breakouts in Gold / GDX increase the chance that Silver is locked & loaded / ready to go.
白银仍然是一个高优先级的设置——黄金/GDX 的突破增加了白银被锁定和加载/准备就绪的机会。
The next few days could be critical to confirm this:
接下来的几天对于确认这一点可能至关重要：
Look at the power potentially building here — if confirmed, this could unleash a historic rally in the entire group:
看看这里潜在的力量——如果得到证实，这可能会引发整个集团的历史性反弹：
BONDS 债券
Bonds continue to build strength:
债券继续增强实力：
TLT broke through the APR 2024 lows:
TLT 突破 2024 年 4 月低点：
- This opens the NOV 2024 lows + 50dma as potential Short-Term targets — both in the $89.50-$90.00 range.
- 这将 2024 年 11 月低点 + 50 日移动平均线作为潜在的短期目标 - 均在 89.50 美元至 90.00 美元范围内。
- Ideally this range gets tested in the next few weeks, then a consolidation builds the energy to finish the bigger structure.
- 理想情况下，这个范围在接下来的几周内得到测试，然后整合积聚能量来完成更大的结构。
10YR Yields have similar Short-Term targets in the low ~4.40% range.
10 年期收益率也有类似的短期目标，处于 4.40% 左右的低区间。
30YR Yields have similar Short-Term targets in the low ~4.60% range.
30 年期收益率也有类似的短期目标，处于低至 4.60% 的范围内。
*As before, we maintain focused exposure to the Long end here.
*与之前一样，我们继续重点关注长端。
CURRENCIES 货币
Similar constructive price action developing:
类似的建设性价格行为正在发展：
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN 两个值得关注的领域
📌 Risks remain elevated in these, in our view.
📌 我们认为，这些领域的风险仍然很高。
📌 As before, continue to monitor for a better opportunity — ideally later in Q1-Q2, perhaps with a big capitulation.
📌 和以前一样，继续关注更好的机会——最好是在第一季度到第二季度晚些时候，也许会有很大的让步。
CHINA 中国
OIL & ENERGY 石油与能源
From the Global Markets Weekly Review:
来自全球市场每周评论：
“Buyer beware. Potential for a Top in play — watching next week closely for confirmation / reversal.”
“买家要小心。顶部的潜力正在发挥——下周密切关注确认/逆转。 ”
For now, looks like an immediate reversal “when and where it should” — reiterate caution here:
目前看来，“应该在何时何地”立即出现逆转——在此重申谨慎：
NOTES & OBSERVATIONS / FINAL THOUGHTS
笔记和观察/最终想法
Constructing scenarios from the developing signals, this could become an important framework:
从发展中的信号构建场景，这可能成为一个重要的框架：
The Bear Flag in Crude has a height of $12-13 — so a breakdown if/when confirmed could target sub-$60 WTI at some point later this year.
原油的熊旗高度为 12-13 美元，因此，如果/一旦确认细分，WTI 的目标可能会在今年晚些时候的某个时候跌至 60 美元以下。
Whatever the cause of such a move, it would likely be in synch with significantly lower Bond Yields — recall the Weekly chart of the 2YR suggests a potential target range in the low 3% *IF* Momentum confirms a turn signal (pending).
无论这种举动的原因是什么，它都可能与债券收益率的显着下降同步——回想一下 2 年期周线图表明，潜在目标范围处于 3% 的低位 *IF* 动量确认了转向信号（待定）。
Similarly, a large decline in Bond Yields would likely be associated with a broader downtrend in the U.S. Dollar — and with it, Weekly Buy signals triggering in Precious Metals as highlighted earlier.
All of which suggests — this is a powder keg ready to blow — IF Momentum can just push “a bit more” in the right direction, it could quickly build a lot of energy.
Important to emphasize that conditions are still in flux — but the opportunity set is potentially massive, therefore we continue to monitor these setups closely.
One day at a time, as always. The year is just getting started and showing great promise. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading.
Onwards and upwards🚀 -MC
