One Weapon China Is Reluctant to Deploy Against Tariffs: A Weaker Currency
中国不愿意对抗关税的武器之一：更弱的货币

In a Friday phone call with President-elect Donald Trump, Xi signaled his desire to engage in negotiations with the next White House, saying both sides should “find appropriate solutions to problems.”
在与当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的周五电话中，习近平表示希望与下届白宫进行谈判，并称双方应“找到适当的解决方案来解决问题。”

Dubbed the people’s currency within China, the yuan, or renminbi, is an important political symbol and crucial to how Chinese leaders project strength. Day to day, the People’s Bank of China manages its move in a tight trading band, but the broad decisions on its direction are political ones and come from above the bank.
被称为中国人民货币的人民币在政治上是一个重要的象征，并且对中国领导人展现力量至关重要。日常中，中国人民银行在一个狭窄的交易区间内管理其波动，但其方向上的重大决策是政治性的，来自于银行之上。

In the previous trade war with the U.S., which started in early 2018 during Trump’s first presidential term, China devalued the yuan by about 13% to hit back at Trump tariffs: A weaker yuan made China’s exports cheaper. The strategy at times further enraged Trump—whose administration in 2019 labeled China a currency manipulator—but it helped buttress the Chinese economy.
在与美国的前一场贸易战中，该贸易战始于 2018 年初特朗普的第一次总统任期，中国将人民币贬值约 13%以反击特朗普的关税：人民币贬值使中国的出口变得更便宜。这一策略在某些时候进一步激怒了特朗普——他的政府在 2019 年将中国列为货币操纵国——但这有助于支撑中国经济。

This time, it is more complicated. The yuan isn’t immune to market pressure and the central bank has already had to let it weaken, partly a result of economic malaise and partly because markets expect more U.S.-China friction. That has limited Beijing’s use of the yuan as a tool to fight tariffs.  
这次情况更复杂。人民币并未免受市场压力的影响，中央银行已经不得不让其贬值，部分原因是经济不景气，部分原因是市场预期中美之间会有更多摩擦。这限制了北京将人民币作为对抗关税的工具的使用。

In Beijing, according to people close to decision-making, an internal debate is now focused on how far to let the yuan weaken.
在北京，接近决策的人士表示，内部辩论目前集中在人民币贬值的幅度上。

One camp, primarily encompassing market-oriented officials and government economists, believes the PBOC should adopt a more hands-off approach, which would mean letting markets push the yuan lower. That way, they argue, the central bank can free itself from defending the yuan and focus on spurring growth via monetary policies such as interest-rate cuts.
一个阵营，主要由市场导向的官员和政府经济学家组成，认为中国人民银行应该采取更为放任的态度，这意味着让市场推动人民币贬值。他们认为，这样中央银行可以摆脱捍卫人民币的负担，专注于通过降息等货币政策来刺激经济增长。

“A more flexible exchange-rate policy will lead to a more flexible interest-rate policy,” a government adviser involved in the discussions said.
“更灵活的汇率政策将导致更灵活的利率政策，”一位参与讨论的政府顾问说。

The other camp, encompassing those tasked with maintaining financial stability, sees that approach as way too risky. They worry that currency depreciation, however gradual and orderly authorities intend it to be, would drive capital out of China when its banking system already is seeking greater liquidity support. 
另一个阵营，包括那些负责维护金融稳定的人，认为这种方法风险太大。他们担心，尽管当局打算让货币贬值过程尽可能渐进和有序，但这仍会导致资本流出中国，而此时其银行系统已经在寻求更大的流动性支持。

In their view, the yuan must be defended against markets they say will keep pummeling it on expectations it will depreciate. 
在他们看来，人民币必须抵御市场的冲击，他们认为市场将继续打压人民币，预计其会贬值。

“The signal now is stability,” said Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. But if President-elect Trump follows through on his tariff threats, Setser said, “controlled depreciation would be hard for China to avoid even though it’s not necessarily something they want.”
“现在的信号是稳定，”前美国财政部官员、现任外交关系委员会高级研究员布拉德·塞特塞尔说。但如果当选总统特朗普兑现他的关税威胁，塞特塞尔表示，“即使这并不是他们想要的，受控贬值对中国来说也将很难避免。”

For now, the political decree from the Xi leadership is to prevent the currency from weakening too much.
目前，习领导层的政治法令是防止货币过度贬值。

In a statement to The Wall Street Journal, the PBOC listed factors supporting the yuan’s value, such as the country’s trade surplus and foreign-exchange reserves. It said regulators are “confident, well-positioned and capable of maintaining the basic stability of renminbi’s exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level.” 
在《华尔街日报》的声明中，中国人民银行列出了支持人民币价值的因素，如国家的贸易顺差和外汇储备。它表示监管机构“有信心、处于良好位置，并能够保持人民币汇率在合理和均衡水平的基本稳定。”

The order to keep the yuan stable complicates the central bank’s other decisions. If it lowers interest rates, for example, that means more money sloshing around in the system, which inevitably pushes the yuan lower.   
保持人民币稳定的命令使中央银行的其他决策变得复杂。例如，如果它降低利率，这意味着系统中流动的资金会增加，这不可避免地会导致人民币贬值。

But Xi has made it clear that sometimes the yuan needs to take precedence.
但习明确表示，有时人民币需要优先考虑。

His priority was on display on his visit to the central bank in October 2023, when he skipped what many would argue is the PBOC’s most important component, the monetary-policy department that is in charge of interest rates. He instead focused on the agency overseeing the country’s foreign-exchange reserves, a $3 trillion-or-so reservoir that can be deployed to defend the yuan.
他在 2023 年 10 月访问中央银行时，优先考虑的事项显而易见，他跳过了许多人认为是中国人民银行最重要的部门——负责利率的货币政策部门。他转而关注负责国家外汇储备的机构，这是一笔约 3 万亿美元的储备，可以用来捍卫人民币。

Even more unusual for a Chinese leader, the people said: Xi followed the stop at the central bank with a visit to the state-owned China Banknote Printing and Minting Corp., which physically produces the yuan coins and banknotes for the PBOC.
更不寻常的是，中国领导人们表示：习近平在中央银行停留后，访问了国有的中国印钞造币总公司，该公司负责为中国人民银行实际生产人民币硬币和纸币。

His visit came as the yuan was trading at around 16-year lows against the dollar, a reflection of China’s faltering economic recovery after the pandemic as well as U.S. economic strength.
他的访问是在人民币对美元交易接近 16 年低点之际进行的，这反映了中国在疫情后经济复苏乏力以及美国经济强劲的情况。

Immediately after Xi’s visit, China’s state banks stepped up efforts to support the yuan by selling their dollar holdings. 
在习近平访问后，中国的国有银行加大了通过出售美元持有量来支持人民币的力度。

In the past year, the leader has called for a powerful currency as a way to build China into a financial superpower. A high-level meeting in December, which mapped out the leadership’s economic agenda for 2025, repeated the official mantra of keeping the exchange rate relatively stable while also pledging greater policy support for the economy.
在过去一年中，领导人呼吁建立一种强势货币，以将中国建设成为金融超级大国。12 月的一次高层会议制定了领导层 2025 年的经济议程，重申了保持汇率相对稳定的官方口号，同时承诺为经济提供更大的政策支持。

More recently, as Trump’s inauguration approaches, currency traders have kept pushing the yuan to the weakest possible daily levels tolerated by the central bank, in anticipation that Beijing eventually will have to let the currency fall further to bolster the economy in another trade war with Washington.
最近，随着特朗普就职典礼的临近，货币交易员不断将人民币推向中央银行所能容忍的最弱日水平，预计北京最终将不得不让货币进一步贬值，以在与华盛顿的另一场贸易战中提振经济。

Trump has pledged to place tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China immediately after taking office. On the campaign trail, he vowed to impose tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China. 
特朗普承诺在上任后立即对来自墨西哥、加拿大和中国的进口商品征收关税。在竞选期间，他发誓对来自中国的进口商品征收高达 60%的关税。

Another reason Beijing wants to avoid a big fall in the yuan’s value is the desire to avoid antagonizing Trump and keep open channels of negotiations with his team, according to the people close to decision-making.
另一个北京希望避免人民币大幅贬值的原因是希望避免激怒特朗普，并与他的团队保持开放的谈判渠道，接近决策的人士表示。

Memories are still fresh in Beijing’s power corridors of the events following its decision to allow the yuan to slip past the level of 7 to the dollar on Aug. 4, 2019, for the first time in more than a decade. Then-president Trump immediately raised tariffs in response.
记忆仍然鲜活在北京权力走廊中，回忆起 2019 年 8 月 4 日其决定让人民币首次在十多年内跌破 7 对美元的水平后的事件。时任总统特朗普立即提高了关税作为回应。

For weeks, the central bank has been trying to keep the yuan stable at the current level of about 7.33 per dollar, a roughly 11% decline against the greenback since early 2018. 
数周以来，中央银行一直试图将人民币稳定在当前约 7.33 美元的水平，自 2018 年初以来，相对于美元大约下降了 11%。

To that end, the PBOC has largely kept its daily guidepost for the yuan, known as the “fix,” in a narrow range around 7.2 to the dollar, despite a surging greenback. Authorities have also made it harder for traders to bet against the yuan, in some cases calling in for questioning those seen as “maliciously shorting” the currency.
为此，中国人民银行在美元大幅上涨的情况下，基本上将人民币的每日指导价（称为“中间价”）维持在 7.2 左右的狭窄区间内。有关部门还加大了对交易员做空人民币的打击力度，在某些情况下，召集被视为“恶意做空”该货币的交易员进行问询。

Setser at the CFR and other analysts believe that China has a war chest of dollar reserves it can tap into if it wants to defend the yuan at a certain level. The central bank spent about $1 trillion propping up the currency a decade ago, when a move to loosen currency controls led to persistent selloffs. Authorities can also make it harder for both businesses and individuals to move money out of China.
CFR 的 Setser 和其他分析师认为，中国拥有一笔美元储备，可以在想要将人民币维持在某一水平时动用。十年前，中央银行花费了约 1 万亿美元来支撑货币，当时放松货币管制导致持续的抛售。有关当局还可以使企业和个人更难将资金转出中国。

But one disadvantage Beijing has today is the widening gap between China’s plunging sovereignty yields and the soaring yields in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. That has led Chinese exporters to hoard cash overseas instead of repatriating the funds back to China, a trend that has contributed to a weaker yuan.
但今天北京面临的一个缺点是中国主权收益率的急剧下降与美国及世界其他地方收益率的飙升之间的差距在扩大。这导致中国出口商在海外囤积现金，而不是将资金汇回中国，这一趋势导致了人民币的贬值。

A yuan free of government intervention would be trading around 8 per dollar these days, some analysts say, acknowledging the difficulty in estimating its market value as the yuan has never been driven by market forces. Goldman Sachs expects the yuan to depreciate to 7.5 against the dollar by the middle of this year, the weakest in nearly two decades.
一些分析师表示，若没有政府干预，人民币如今的交易价格大约在每美元 8 元左右，并承认由于人民币从未受到市场力量的驱动，估算其市场价值的难度。高盛预计，到今年年中，人民币对美元将贬值至 7.5，创下近二十年来的最低水平。

“The market is uniformly bearish on yuan but not much can be done at the moment,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The PBOC is still supporting it, but eventually they’ll have to let it go, particularly once the U.S. raises tariffs on China imports.” 
“市场对人民币的看法普遍看跌，但目前也无能为力，”RBC 资本市场亚洲外汇策略负责人阿尔文·谭表示。“中国人民银行仍在支持人民币，但最终他们将不得不放手，特别是在美国提高对中国进口的关税之后。”

Write to Lingling Wei at Lingling.Wei@wsj.com and Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com
请联系 Lingling Wei，邮箱是 Lingling.Wei@wsj.com，以及 Rebecca Feng，邮箱是 rebecca.feng@wsj.com。