这是用户在 2024-6-6 9:03 为 https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-eth-2030-price-target/?continueFlag=... 保存的双语快照页面,由 沉浸式翻译 提供双语支持。了解如何保存?
Skip directly to Accessibility Notice

ETH 2030 Price Target and Optimal Portfolio Allocations
ETH 2030 价格目标和最佳投资组合配置

June 05, 2024 2024 年 6 月 5 日

Read Time 10+ MIN 阅读时间 10 分钟以上

We estimate ETH's price to hit $22k by 2030 in our updated base case scenario and explore optimal BTC and ETH allocations in both traditional 60/40 and crypto-only portfolios.
在我们更新的基本情景中,我们估计 ETH 的价格到 2030 年将达到 2.2 万美元,并在传统的 60/40 和纯加密投资组合中探索最佳的 BTC 和 ETH 配置。

Please note that VanEck has positions in ether and bitcoin.
请注意,VanEck 持有以太币和比特币头寸。

The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on any digital assets in this blog are not intended as financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell these digital assets, or any call to action. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in these scenarios that may impede the performance these digital assets; their actual future performance is unknown, and may differ significantly from any valuation scenarios or projections/forecasts herein. Any projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements included herein are the results of a simulation based on our research, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
本博客中提供的任何数字资产的信息、估值方案和价格目标并不旨在作为财务建议、购买或出售这些数字资产的建议或任何行动号召。这些场景中可能存在未考虑到的风险或其他因素,可能会阻碍这些数字资产的性能;他们的实际未来表现是未知的,并且可能与本文中的任何估值情景或预测/预测有很大不同。本文中包含的任何预测、预测或前瞻性陈述都是基于我们研究的模拟结果,自本新闻稿发布之日起有效,如有更改,恕不另行通知,并且仅供说明之用。请进行您自己的研究并得出您自己的结论。

We anticipate that spot ether ETFs are nearing approval to trade on U.S. stock exchanges. This development would allow financial advisors and institutional investors to hold this unique asset with the security of qualified custodians, and benefit from the pricing and liquidity advantages characteristic of ETFs. In response, we've updated our financial model and reevaluated the fundamental investment case for ETH. We also performed a series of quantitative analyses on how ether (ETH) interacts with bitcoin (BTC) in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, focusing on the tradeoff between risk and return.
我们预计现货以太坊 ETF 即将获准在美国证券交易所交易。这一发展将使财务顾问和机构投资者能够在合格托管人的担保下持有这一独特的资产,并受益于 ETF 的定价和流动性优势特征。作为回应,我们更新了财务模型并重新评估了 ETH 的基本投资案例。我们还对传统 60/40 投资组合中以太坊 (ETH) 与比特币 (BTC) 如何相互作用进行了一系列定量分析,重点关注风险与回报之间的权衡。

The key takeaways of this piece are:
本文的要点是:

  1. Driven by a strong value proposition to entrepreneurs, the Ethereum network is likely to continue its rapid market share growth from traditional financial market participants and, increasingly, Big Tech. Should it do so while maintaining its dominant position among smart contract platforms, we see a credible path to $66B in free cash flow to token holders supporting a $2.2 trillion asset, or $22k per coin, by 2030.
    在对企业家的强大价值主张的推动下,以太坊网络可能会继续从传统金融市场参与者以及越来越多的大型科技公司那里获得快速增长的市场份额。如果它在这样做的同时保持其在智能合约平台中的主导地位,我们将看到一条可靠的途径,到 2030 年,代币持有者将获得 66B 美元的自由现金流,支持 2.2 万亿美元的资产,或每枚代币 2.2 万美元。
  2. Adding a modest allocation of cryptocurrencies (up to 6%) to a traditional 60/40 portfolio can substantially improve the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio with a relatively minor impact on drawdown. An allocation close to 70/30 between bitcoin and ether for a crypto-only portfolio provided the best risk-adjusted returns.
    在传统的 60/40 投资组合中添加适度的加密货币配置(最多 6%)可以显着提高投资组合的夏普比率,同时对回撤的影响相对较小。对于纯加密投资组合,比特币和以太币之间接近 70/30 的分配提供了最佳的风险调整回报。

Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, is a novel asset that exposes investors to a high-growth, internet-native commercial system called Ethereum that threatens to disrupt existing financial businesses and Big Tech platforms like Google and Apple. Ethereum is a successful digital economy that attracts -~20M monthly active users while settling $4T in settlement value and facilitating $5.5T in stablecoin transfers over the last twelve months. Ethereum secures over $91.2B in stablecoins, $6.7B in tokenized off-chain assets, and $308B in digital assets. The centerpiece asset of this financial system is the ETH token, and in our updated base case, we believe it to be worth $22k by 2030, representing a total return of 487% from today’s ETH price, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.8%.
以太坊(ETH)是以太坊的原生代币,是一种新颖的资产,它让投资者接触到名为以太坊的高增长、互联网原生商业系统,该系统有可能扰乱现有的金融业务以及谷歌和苹果等大型科技平台。以太坊是一个成功的数字经济体,每月吸引约 2000 万活跃用户,同时在过去 12 个月内结算了 4T 美元的结算价值并促进了 5.5T 美元的稳定币转账。以太坊拥有超过 91.2B 美元的稳定币、6.7B 美元的代币化链下资产以及 308B 美元的数字资产。这个金融系统的核心资产是 ETH 代币,在我们更新的基本情况中,我们认为到 2030 年它的价值将达到 2.2 万美元,相当于今天 ETH 价格的 487% 的总回报率,即复合年增长率 (CAGR) 37.8%。

We project ETH’s 2030 valuation based upon a forecast of $66B in free cashflows generated by Ethereum and accruing to the ETH token. We estimate 33x valuation multiple on those cashflows. As Ethereum is a platform for applications, we begin our valuation by estimating the market size of business sectors that blockchain applications will disrupt. We estimate the total addressable market (TAM) to be $15T based on annual revenues in these industry verticals:
我们根据以太坊产生并累积到 ETH 代币的自由现金流 66B 美元的预测来预测 ETH 2030 年的估值。我们估计这些现金流的估值倍数为 33 倍。由于以太坊是一个应用程序平台,因此我们通过估计区块链应用程序将扰乱的业务领域的市场规模来开始估值。根据这些垂直行业的年收入,我们估计总潜在市场 (TAM) 为 15T 美元:

  • Finance, Banking, and Payments (FBP) - $10.9T
    金融、银行和支付 (FBP) - $10.9T
  • Marketing, Advertising, Social and Gaming (MASG) - $1.1T
    营销、广告、社交和游戏 (MASG) - $1.1T
  • Infrastructure (I) - $1.8T
    基础设施 (I) - $1.8T
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) - $1.4T
    人工智能 (AI) - $1.4T

From our TAM figures, we apply market capture estimates of these revenues utilizing blockchains such as Ethereum. These penetration rates are 7.5%, 20%, 10%, and 5% for FBP, MASG, I, and AI, respectively (Fig 6). After that, we predict the share of crypto applications built on Ethereum rather than other blockchains, and our base case is 70%. We then estimate the fees that Ethereum will charge app users, which is effectively a “take rate” on these applications’ revenues, and we calculate this will be 5-10%. We recently updated our ETH model from Spring 2023 to add the AI end-market to reflect Ethereum’s great potential in that sector. The other impactful adjustments to our previous model are increased burn of ETH supply, greater end market capture, and a higher take rate on underlying economic activity. We believe these changes are justified by fundamentals, recent innovations that make Ethereum more accessible, and changing politics in the U.S.
根据我们的 TAM 数据,我们利用以太坊等区块链对这些收入进行市场占领估计。 FBP、MASG、I 和 AI 的渗透率分别为 7.5%、20%、10% 和 5%(图 6)。之后,我们预测基于以太坊而不是其他区块链构建的加密应用程序的份额,我们的基本情况是 70%。然后,我们估计以太坊将向应用程序用户收取的费用,这实际上是这些应用程序收入的“收取率”,我们计算出该费用将为 5-10%。我们最近从 2023 年春季开始更新了 ETH 模型,添加了人工智能终端市场,以反映以太坊在该领域的巨大潜力。对我们之前模型的其他有影响力的调整是增加 ETH 供应的消耗、更大的终端市场占领以及对基础经济活动的更高的采用率。我们相信这些变化是合理的,因为基本面、最近的创新使以太坊更容易使用,以及美国政治的变化。

Fig 1. 图。1。

ETH’s Trailing Twelve-Months (TTM) Metrics
ETH 过去十二个月 (TTM) 指标
Ethereum Smart Contract Market Share
以太坊智能合约市场份额
58%
Revenue (Millions) 收入(百万) $3,461
Validator Cut 验证者削减 5.00%
Value to Tokenholders (Millions)
对代币持有者的价值(百万)
$3,288
Current FCF Multiple 当前自由现金流倍数 137.84x
ETH FDV (Millions) ETH FDV(百万) $453,282
ETH Supply (Millions) ETH 供应量(百万) 120.13
ETH Price 以太坊价格 $3,773

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 5/28/2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Trailing Twelve-Months (TTM) refers to the past 12 consecutive months of data up to the current date, used for financial analysis to provide a recent historical perspective. Free Cash Flow (FCF) is the net amount of ether available from the network's operations after considering all network costs, like gas fees used for transactions and smart contracts. Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), represents the total market value of all ether (ETH) tokens, based on the current price, if the entire projected supply were already in circulation. This includes both the existing supply and any future ether that will be minted.
来源:Artemis XYZ 截至 2024 年 5 月 28 日。不建议购买或出售本文提及的任何名称。过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。追踪十二个月(TTM)是指截至当前日期的过去连续 12 个月的数据,用于财务分析以提供近期历史视角。