We hosted an NDR for FTA on Aug 23. Despite slower order volume growth due to macro pressure, FTA is still confident of delivering resilient transaction services revenue growth and margins in 2H24.

Keboda's 2Q24 earnings grew 6% YoY but fell 30% MoM to Rmb153mn, in line with preliminary results. 2Q revenue grew 26% YoY but fell 6% QoQ to Rmb1.3bn, underperforming its key customer VW's 3% QoQ global production growth. Keboda's power inverter (includes chassis & body DCU) remains a bright spot, growing 12% QoQ to Rmb169mn in 2Q, likely driven by solid growth from Li Auto and BYD. Gross marg...

Risk Reward for National Storage REIT (NSR.AX) has been updated

Risk Reward for NetEase, Inc (NTES.O) has been updated.

Please use the links in the email below to access each data report. US Liquid Rates TrackerThe US Liquid Rates Tracker provides detail on the US Treasury Nominal curve, STRIPS, and TIPS.Treasury & TIPS Summary (Excel version)The excel version of US Liquid Rates Tracker provides a downloadable spreadsheet for US Treasury Nominal curve and TIPS bonds.Treasury Relative Value ReportThe Treasury...

The US Liquid Rates Tracker provides detail on the US Treasury Nominal curve, STRIPS, and TIPS.

Futures Pricing: We determine a model value for the two front 2y note, 3y note, 5y note, 10y note and 30y bond futures contracts. We use this to indicate how rich or cheap the contract is trading. Additionally, we determine the DV01 of the contract.Deliverable Basket: We display market information for each of the bonds in the basket. Included in these are bond yields, repo rates, and gross and ...

The Treasury Relative Value Report provides detail beyond the Liquid Rates Tracker on the nominal Treasury curve, comparing bonds across several relative value metrics.

The excel version of US Liquid Rates Tracker provides a downloadable spreadsheet for US Treasury Nominal curve and TIPS bonds.

Following the 1HCY24 result we remain EW, with our price target A$6.6/sh.

Risk Reward for Shenzhen New Industries (300832.SZ) has been updated

We provide holistic daily data set and charts for Japan interest rates. This includes important data such as JGB, OIS, ASW, JGB Futures and JGBi.

Risk Reward for Regis Resources (RRL.AX) has been updated

This monthly report presents market outstanding JGBs, the Bank of Japan's purchases, and the Ministry of Finance's buyback amount.

Risk Reward for Sangfor Technologies Inc (300454.SZ) has been updated

Risk Reward for Glodon Co. Ltd. (002410.SZ) has been updated

Risk Reward for PSC Insurance Group Ltd (PSI.AX) has been updated.

The UK Rates Monitor provides relative value signals across the gilt curve based on relative curvature.

Risk Reward for Northern Star Resources (NST.AX) has been updated.

We highlight key changes to the clinical trials of companies under coverage occurring from 8/14-8/21. See inside for a full list of all changes.

Core cost estimate business continues to grow amid a very tough environment. The big drop in the engineering business raises the possibility for a further round of streamlining, in our view.

WuXi XDC achieved an encouraging 1H24 with outstanding margin profiles and ended the half with a robust backlog. Overall demand for ADC CDMO services is still very strong as ADCs can be applied in broader areas. First commercial project is likely in 2025 with more to come in outer years.

Post 2Q results we raise EBITDA ests ~1% on better forward trends with better cost control. Our price target moves to $37 (from $35) on an increased multiple (12x F-24m EV/EBITDA and 16.5x F-24m P/E vs. peers trading at ~9/11x). With ~11% upside to our PT, we stay EW w/ balanced risk-reward.

Ron Kamdem initiates coverage on LINE at OW with a $100 PT. Chris Quintero comes away incrementally more positive on VERX following investor meetings with management. Bob Huang gives an update on the state of the insurance industry post earnings.

Risk Reward for Equinix Inc. (EQIX.O) has been updated

Against an unchanging demand environment, mgmt revised down its growth outlook to 'mid teens', while raising the FY27 op margin target to 30%, a trade-off likely seen as positive. While lower growth warrants a lower multiple, with shares at 23x CY26 EPS for a 27% EPS CAGR, we still see upside.

A 2nd consecutive quarter showing stabilization in key metrics suggests BILL has regained its footing. A stable macro and improving momentum from new initiatives drive management's expectation for 20%+ growth in FY26, but may take some time for investors to buy into that acceleration, leaving us EW.

AAP: WORLDPAC sale a step in the right direction. Still, a high degree of difficulty with this turnaround. Lower PT to $50. BJ: Investments a surprise but prudent approach. $90 PT. WSM: Waiting on macro & nearing peak margins. $145 PT.

Better-than-feared 2Q beat & FY raise sent ROST stock +6% AMC against concerns around CA & low-income exposure. We remain Overweight rated on ROST’s ongoing margin recapture opportunity, potential for positive NTM EPS revisions, & value positioning heading into a challenging 2H Retail set-up. Raise PT to $178.

What’s new: Alibaba that its voluntary conversion of secondary listing to primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will become effective on August 28, 2024. Upon the Primary Conversion, BABA will be dual primary listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the NYSE. Our Take: We see the Primary Conversion with potential Southbound inclusion to be the imminent share price catalyst for BABA....

Management guided down global TOPCon demand in 2024, but remains positive on overseas growth and SC's leadership in TOPCon equipment. Despite 2024 financial growth remaining solid, the fast decline in new orders will result in negative growth in 2025-26 revenue and profit, in our view.

PTON appears to have reached sustainable profitability with guidance for >$200M in FY25 EBITDA. However, that is driven by a reduced investment in growth initiatives as CF subs are expected to be down (8)%-(10)% y/y. We are encouraged by the stable footing, but growth remains elusive. EW; $3.50 PT.

Baidu's core ads growth could further decelerate to -3% YoY in 3Q, while cloud growth accelerates. Core margins largely stable on disciplined cost control. Trim Baidu PT to US$105, EW. IQ sees pressure in topline and earnings growth into 3Q. Trim PT to US$2.6, EW.

Despite strong performance of San Mou and peak season for games ads, we think the 3Q24 outlook missed high consensus expectations, leaving limited room for upward EPS revisions for 2025 to support its premium valuation. We trim our estimates and stay EW at >20x 25E P/E.

USTs bear-flatten ahead of Chair Powell's speech; Bunds sell off amid mixed data in the euro area; UK is an outlier with strength in manufacturing PMI; Fedspeak pushes back against a 50bp September cut; BoK on hold; NOK weakens after miss in 2QGDP; DXY at 101.52 (0.5%); US 10y at 3.852% (+5.1bp).

Despite the 2Q24 beat, we see limited potential for meaningful improvement from JDL's estimated net margin of 7-8% in its core supply chain business in 2Q24. Dividend payout visibility is unclear. Remain EW.

Please click on the link for the credit index options file, which includes data on historical volatility and skew levels.

Please click on the link for the credit index tranche file, which includes data on pricing, correlation, and risk allocation.

With upbeat 1H24 results and further recovery in 2H24, we reiterate our OW rating on AAC.

2Q24 in-line – Net revenue of US$438mn (-1% YoY in Rmb) was driven by ad revenue of US$375mn (-1% YoY in Rmb), and VAS of US$63mn (+15% YoY). Non-GAAP operating profit was US$158mn (+4% YoY in Rmb) with OPM of 36% (+1.1ppt YoY). Non-GAAP net profit was US$126mn (flat YoY) with NPM of 29% (flat YoY). Ad growth in 2Q was driven by FMCG, 3C, e-commerce and auto– Key ad vertical mix in 2Q was FMCG...

Stella remains one of our preferred footwear OEMs as it benefits from resilient luxury and fashion footwear demand as well as improving sports footwear growth. The new cash return plan may also lift sentiment.

Huali continues to outshine peers on both revenue growth and margin profiles, thanks to ongoing share gains from both new and existing customers and solid execution. OW.

Strong YoY growth from orders in China probably reflects the lower base in 2H23, FX tailwinds, and some share gains among Japanese players, while the top-down and bottom-up data points remain relatively lukewarm.

Risk Reward for Wuxi Autowell Technology Co Ltd (688516.SS) has been updated

The Morgan Stanley Supply Chain Index (MSSCI) has risen 40bp over June (+34bp) and July (+6bp) to reach a 12-month high. MSSCISD has risen by 30bp over this period, driven by containership rates that have risen by almost 50% on average, while global demand PMIs fell.

Management remains constructive on reaching 30% revenue CAGR, underpinned by a diversifying customer mix, rising smart cockpit penetration and value content upside. That said, GPM for precision casting could remain under pressure in 2H24 before utilization picks up.

2Q24 missed Street expectations on lower GM and higher opex: AMECannounced 2Q24 revenue of Rmb1,843mn, up 15% Q/Q and 41% Y/Y. GM declined 7ppts Q/Q to 38.2%, as 1) the company recognized higher warranty fees in COGS (was listed in opex in the past), which negatively affected GM by 2-3ppts (excluding this impact, GM qould be 40%+, which is in its normal range); and 2) product mix and client mix...

AI model investment continues to drag earnings despite recovery seen in legacy business. We lower our earnings estimates and price target to reflect continuous input. Stay EW.

Joyson’s safety GPM recovered across regions in 1H24, per management, where it grew 1) +2ppt YoY to 16% in Asia, 2) +5ppt YoY to 14.3% in Europe, 3) +3ppt YoY to 12.4% in North America, and 4) +3.5ppt YoY to 14.5% in Japan. Management attributed the margin recovery to scale benefits and operational efficiency improvement upon resolving supply chain challenges. Joyson has developed multiple smar...

No dividend was announced with 1H24 results, as usual and as expected. Financial reporting of Brilliance for 1H24 came in largely in-line with our and market expectation, this is reflected in both its net profit of Rmb1.47bn (-60.7% YoY) on the back of a preliminary results warning of ~60% YoY decline, as well as a calculated adjusted cash position of ~HK$2.3/share. Our cash calculation takes i...

Brian talks AMZN’s discretionary growth in his model as we head into a short holiday season and consumer behavior during presidential elections.