Enthusiasm about generative AI investment has helped to fuel a surge in equity prices in the United States, with an expectation that investment will grow rapidly in the coming few years and potentially have a favorable impact on productivity. Yet another aspect of generative AI has drawn less attention, namely its high power usage that potentially could cause a sizable increase in carbon emissions.
对生成式人工智能投资的热情推动了美国股票价格的飙升，预计未来几年投资将迅速增长，并可能对生产力产生有利影响。生成式人工智能的另一个方面却引起了较少的关注，即其高功耗可能导致碳排放量大幅增加。
Granted, generative AI has the potential to assist in minimizing carbon emissions, among other benefits. The technology can be used to detect pipeline leaks and contribute to the development of new materials and processes that are more energy efficient. Still, the use of billions of devices connected to the internet, and especially the use of data centers, with the air conditioning needed to cool servers, will likely lead to considerable consumption of electricity.
诚然，生成式人工智能有可能帮助最大限度地减少碳排放，以及其他好处。该技术可用于检测管道泄漏，并有助于开发更节能的新材料和工艺。尽管如此，使用数十亿台连接到互联网的设备，尤其是使用数据中心，以及冷却服务器所需的空调，可能会导致大量电力消耗。
It is reported1 that connected devices will account for 3.5% of global carbon emissions in 2025, and possibly 14% of global emissions in 2040. The future increase would likely be due to generative AI as well as increased usage of devices in emerging countries. In addition, a study2 by scientists at Cornell University found that training large language models, which must be done continually, consumes a large amount of electricity, thereby pumping more carbon into the atmosphere.
据悉 1 ，到2025年，联网设备将占全球碳排放量的3.5%，到2040年可能占全球排放量的14%。未来的增长可能是由于生成式人工智能以及新兴国家设备使用量的增加。此外，康奈尔大学科学家的一项研究 2 发现，训练大型语言模型（必须持续进行）会消耗大量电力，从而将更多的碳泵入大气中。
What can be done? First, the world will need to shift toward producing electricity using clean energy. This would include solar, wind, hydroelectric, nuclear, and hydrogen power. Second, producers of AI-related services will have to engage in more efficient usage of energy. A recent study3 offered suggestions on how to accomplish this. Yet unless governments compel companies to follow these suggestions, it will not be clear whether efficiencies are being adopted.
可以做些什么？首先，世界需要转向使用清洁能源发电。这将包括太阳能、风能、水力发电、核能和氢能。其次，人工智能相关服务的生产者将不得不更有效地利用能源。最近的一项研究 3 就如何实现这一目标提出了建议。然而，除非政府迫使公司遵循这些建议，否则是否正在采用效率尚不清楚。
As a resident of California, I recall that, about a decade ago, we faced a temporary yet serious shortage of electricity. In part it was due to a rapid increase in demand, almost entirely from the rapid rollout of new servers and data centers in the state’s large technology industry. This was, I think, a warning about what could happen globally in the years to come.
作为加利福尼亚州的居民，我记得大约十年前，我们面临着暂时而严重的电力短缺。部分原因是需求的快速增长，几乎完全来自该州大型科技行业新服务器和数据中心的快速推出。我认为，这是对未来几年全球可能发生的事情的警告。
Emerging Countries and the Carbon Calculus
新兴国家与碳计算
Meanwhile, despite all the efforts underway to reduce carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports 4 that global emissions hit a record level in 2023, up 1.1% from the previous year. Moreover, the increase was entirely due to emerging countries. Emissions in advanced economies fell 4.5% from 2022 to 2023, hitting a 50-year low. Emissions fell 9% in Europe and 4.1% percent in the United States. In advanced economies, renewables and nuclear accounted for 50% of electricity generation.
与此同时，尽管为减少碳排放做出了所有努力，但国际能源署 （IEA） 报告称 4 ，2023 年全球排放量创下历史新高，比上一年增长 1.1%。此外，这一增长完全是由于新兴国家。从2022年到2023年，发达经济体的排放量下降了4.5%，创下50年来的新低。欧洲的排放量下降了9%，美国的排放量下降了4.1%。在发达经济体，可再生能源和核能占发电量的50%。
Of greater concern is that emissions were up 5.2% in China and 7% in India. The IEA says that 40% of the increase in global emissions last year was due to burning fossil fuels as a replacement for hydropower. Climate-induced droughts led to a decline in the ability to produce hydropower. Going forward, this could be a serious issue.
更令人担忧的是，中国的排放量增长了5.2%，印度增长了7%。国际能源署表示，去年全球排放量增长的40%是由于燃烧化石燃料作为水电的替代品。气候引发的干旱导致水力发电能力下降。展望未来，这可能是一个严重的问题。
The good news is that, in the past 10 years, global emissions grew at an annual rate of just 0.5%, the lowest rate since the 1930s. However, that was due, in part, to the disruptive impact of the pandemic, which suppressed travel. Going forward, the IEA anticipates big increases in the use of clean energy to produce electricity, and in the use of electric vehicles.
好消息是，在过去10年中，全球排放量的年增长率仅为0.5%，是自1930年代以来的最低水平。然而，这在一定程度上是由于大流行的破坏性影响，它抑制了旅行。展望未来，国际能源署预计清洁能源发电和电动汽车的使用将大幅增加。
—by Ira Kalish, chief global economist, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
——作者：Ira Kalish，德勤关黄有限公司首席全球经济学家
- The Guardian: “‘Tsunami of data’ could consume one fifth of global electricity by 2025,” December 2017
《卫报》：“到 2025 年，'数据海啸'可能消耗全球五分之一的电力”，2017 年 12 月 - Cornell University: “Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training,” April 2021
康奈尔大学：“碳排放和大型神经网络训练”，2021 年 4 月 - Google Research: “Good News About the Carbon Footprint of Machine Learning Training,” December 2022
Google Research：“关于机器学习训练碳足迹的好消息”，2022 年 12 月 - The Wall Street Journal: “Global CO2 Emissions Hit Record High in 2023, IEA Says,” March 2024
《华尔街日报》：“国际能源署称，2023 年全球二氧化碳排放量创历史新高”，2024 年 3 月
Published on Mar 16, 2024 at 3:00 AM
发表于 2024年3月16日 上午3：00
发表于 2024年3月16日 上午3：00
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