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消费市场简报 Consumer Market Briefing

10 + 0 + 0 +0+0

宏观经济 Macroeconomic

1 1 ^(1){ }^{1} 外需韧性  1 1 ^(1){ }^{1} Resilience of external demand

在新的宏观范式之下，海外发达国家劳动力缺口打开、绿色能源转型、全球供应链调整、地缘政治冲突交织下，导致供给侧约束长期存在。目前美国 14 个产业有 11 个相继进入主动补库周期，外部一经市场复苏，中国出口韧性彰显：1-4月进出口总值13.8万亿，创历史新高。
Under the new macro paradigm, the opening of labor gaps in overseas developed countries, the transition to green energy, the adjustment of global supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts have led to long-term supply-side constraints. At present United States 11 of the 14 industries have entered the active replenishment cycle, and once the external market recovers, China's export resilience is demonstrated: the total import and export value from January to April was 13.8 trillion yuan, a record high.

3刺激通胀 3. Stimulate inflation

在外部市场通胀高启的高利率当下，我国高铁、水、燃气、电等公共事业开始陆续开启涨价，加之猪肉库存的去库接近尾声，CPI在政策性的引导下开始进入抬升周期（如果海外市场不出现硬着陆），我们会看到海外再通胀和国内重回温和通胀，从而倒逼工资分配和利率上行。
At the moment of high interest rates with high inflation in the external market, China's high-speed rail, water, gas, electricity and other public utilities have begun to rise in price one after another, coupled with the destocking of pork inventory is nearing the end, CPI has begun to enter an upward cycle under the guidance of policy (if there is no hard landing in overseas markets), we will see overseas reflation and domestic return to moderate inflation, thereby forcing wage distribution and interest rates to rise.

2 呵护地产 2. Take care of the property

在原先的支柱产业房地产上，政策应出尽出：3000亿资金支持收购存量房，给社会基层兜底；放开限购，鼓励有钱人稳住1-2套的刚需配置；鼓励腰部企业造差异化的好房子，满足富裕阶层改善型需求。自然资源部发布的供地新规，明确未来土地供应将得到严格控制，库存去化成为调整供需关系的重要抓手。
In the original pillar industry of real estate, the policy should be exhausted: 300 billion funds to support the acquisition of stock housing to the grassroots of society; Loosen purchase restrictions and encourage wealthy people to stabilize the allocation of 1-2 sets of rigid needs; Encourage waist enterprises to build differentiated good houses to meet the needs of the wealthy class to improve. The new regulations on land supply issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources make it clear that the land supply will be strictly controlled in the future, and the destocking has become an important starting point for adjusting the relationship between supply and demand.

4 4 ^(4){ }^{4} 内需不足  4 4 ^(4){ }^{4} Domestic demand is insufficient

内需来看，压力存在于当下居民与政府的支出力度不足。4月国内居民部门消费弹性向上空间有限；国内政府融资及基建开工速度偏慢。 4月M1同比下降1.4%，社会各部门去杠杆明显。5月10日，财政部发文增发超长期特别国债，可以看到政府融资开始跟进刺激。
From the perspective of domestic demand, the pressure lies in the current lack of spending by residents and the government. In April, the upward space for the consumption elasticity of the domestic household sector was limited; Domestic government financing and infrastructure starts have been slow. M1 fell by 1.4% year-on-year in April, and all sectors of society deleveraged significantly. On May 10, the Ministry of Finance issued an additional issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which can be seen that government financing has begun to follow up the stimulus.

宏观经济 Macroeconomic

宏观数据 Macro data 现值 Present value 前值 Previous value 高值 High value 低值 Low values 单位 unit 发布日 Release date
汇率 exchange rate 7.23 7.22 8.73 1.53 人民币/美元 CNY/USD 24-May
股指 Stock index 3154 3122 6124 95.79 点位 Points 24-May
GDP_年化同比 GDP_ annualized year-on-year comparison 5.3 5.2 18.7 − 6.9 − 6.9 -6.9-6.9 % 24-Mar
失业率 jobless rate 5 5.2 6.2 3.9 % 24-Apr
通胀率_同比 Inflation rate year-on-year 0.3 0.1 28.4 − 2.2 − 2.2 -2.2-2.2 % 24-Apr
通胀率_环比 Inflation rate_month-on-month 0.1 − 1 − 1 -1-1 2.6 − 1.8 − 1.8 -1.8-1.8 % 24-Apr
利率（1y LPR） Interest Rate (1y LPR) 3.45 3.45 5.77 3.45 % 24-Apr
存款准备金率 Reserve Requirement Ratio 10 10 21.5 6 % 24-Apr
贸易余额 Trade balance 72.35 58.55 125 − 61.99 − 61.99 -61.99-61.99 10亿美金 $1 billion 24-Apr
经常账户余额 Current account balance 392 562 1515 − 523 − 523 -523-523 亿美金 billion dollars 24-Mar
经常账户余额vsGDP占比 Current account balance vs. GDP ratio 1.5 2.2 10.1 − 3.7 − 3.7 -3.7-3.7 % 23-Dec
政府债务vSGDP占比 Percentage of government debt vSGDP 77.1 71.8 77.1 20.6 % 22-Dec
财政赤字vsGDP占比 Fiscal deficit vs. GDP ratio -7.4 -6.1 0.58 -8.6 % 22-Dec
制造业PMI_国家统计局 Manufacturing PMI_ National Bureau of Statistics 50.4 50.8 59.2 35.7 点位 Points 24-Apr
制造业PMI_财新 Manufacturing PMI_ Caixin 51.4 51.1 54.9 40.3 点位 Points 24-Apr
非制造业PMI_国家统计局 Non-manufacturing PMI_ National Bureau of Statistics 51.2 53 62.2 29.6 点位 Points 24-Apr
服务业PMI财新 Services PMI Caixin 52.5 52.7 58.4 26.5 点位 Points 24-Apr
消费者信心国家统计局 National Bureau of Statistics on Consumer Confidence 89.1 88.9 127 85.5 点位 Points 24-Feb
社零_月环比 Social zero_month-on-month 0.03 0.15 4.98 − 10.77 − 10.77 -10.77-10.77 % 24-Apr
宏观数据 现值 前值 高值 低值 单位 发布日 汇率 7.23 7.22 8.73 1.53 人民币/美元 24-May 股指 3154 3122 6124 95.79 点位 24-May GDP_年化同比 5.3 5.2 18.7 -6.9 % 24-Mar 失业率 5 5.2 6.2 3.9 % 24-Apr 通胀率_同比 0.3 0.1 28.4 -2.2 % 24-Apr 通胀率_环比 0.1 -1 2.6 -1.8 % 24-Apr 利率（1y LPR） 3.45 3.45 5.77 3.45 % 24-Apr 存款准备金率 10 10 21.5 6 % 24-Apr 贸易余额 72.35 58.55 125 -61.99 10亿美金 24-Apr 经常账户余额 392 562 1515 -523 亿美金 24-Mar 经常账户余额vsGDP占比 1.5 2.2 10.1 -3.7 % 23-Dec 政府债务vSGDP占比 77.1 71.8 77.1 20.6 % 22-Dec 财政赤字vsGDP占比 -7.4 -6.1 0.58 -8.6 % 22-Dec 制造业PMI_国家统计局 50.4 50.8 59.2 35.7 点位 24-Apr 制造业PMI_财新 51.4 51.1 54.9 40.3 点位 24-Apr 非制造业PMI_国家统计局 51.2 53 62.2 29.6 点位 24-Apr 服务业PMI财新 52.5 52.7 58.4 26.5 点位 24-Apr 消费者信心国家统计局 89.1 88.9 127 85.5 点位 24-Feb 社零_月环比 0.03 0.15 4.98 -10.77 % 24-Apr| 宏观数据 | 现值 | 前值 | 高值 | 低值 | 单位 | 发布日 | | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | 汇率 | 7.23 | 7.22 | 8.73 | 1.53 | 人民币/美元 | 24-May | | 股指 | 3154 | 3122 | 6124 | 95.79 | 点位 | 24-May | | GDP_年化同比 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 18.7 | $-6.9$ | % | 24-Mar | | 失业率 | 5 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.9 | % | 24-Apr | | 通胀率_同比 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 28.4 | $-2.2$ | % | 24-Apr | | 通胀率_环比 | 0.1 | $-1$ | 2.6 | $-1.8$ | % | 24-Apr | | 利率（1y LPR） | 3.45 | 3.45 | 5.77 | 3.45 | % | 24-Apr | | 存款准备金率 | 10 | 10 | 21.5 | 6 | % | 24-Apr | | 贸易余额 | 72.35 | 58.55 | 125 | $-61.99$ | 10亿美金 | 24-Apr | | 经常账户余额 | 392 | 562 | 1515 | $-523$ | 亿美金 | 24-Mar | | 经常账户余额vsGDP占比 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 10.1 | $-3.7$ | % | 23-Dec | | 政府债务vSGDP占比 | 77.1 | 71.8 | 77.1 | 20.6 | % | 22-Dec | | 财政赤字vsGDP占比 | -7.4 | -6.1 | 0.58 | -8.6 | % | 22-Dec | | 制造业PMI_国家统计局 | 50.4 | 50.8 | 59.2 | 35.7 | 点位 | 24-Apr | | 制造业PMI_财新 | 51.4 | 51.1 | 54.9 | 40.3 | 点位 | 24-Apr | | 非制造业PMI_国家统计局 | 51.2 | 53 | 62.2 | 29.6 | 点位 | 24-Apr | | 服务业PMI财新 | 52.5 | 52.7 | 58.4 | 26.5 | 点位 | 24-Apr | | 消费者信心国家统计局 | 89.1 | 88.9 | 127 | 85.5 | 点位 | 24-Feb | | 社零_月环比 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 4.98 | $-10.77$ | % | 24-Apr |

五一消费出行 May Day consumption travel

2.95

亿人次 100 million people
较2019年同比 Compared to the same period in 2019
+ 28.2 % + 28.2 % +28.2%+28.2 \%
1669
亿人民币 100 million RMB
较2019年同比 Compared to the same period in 2019
+ 13.5 % + 13.5 % +13.5%+13.5 \%

566

元/程 RMB/Cheng
较2019年同比 Compared to the same period in 2019
− 11.4 % − 11.4 % -11.4%-11.4 \%
和疫情前相比：出行基数增长，更多的人在五一假期参与到出行旅行当中；但是海外出行游尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，从而长线高消费的占比下降，人均消费随着国内城际旅游的占比提升而下降。
Compared with before the epidemic, the travel base has increased, and more people participate in travel during the May Day holiday; However, overseas travel has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level, so the proportion of long-term high consumption has declined, and the per capita consumption has declined with the increase in the proportion of domestic intercity tourism.
信源：华泰宏观 Source: Huatai Macro

Go Faraway

出行意愿强、半径扩大，总收入上升下量升价跌。自驾出行继续结构性高增长——隽程数据亦显示今年五一假期国内租车自驾订单同比增长 40 % 40 % 40%40 \% 。
The willingness to travel is strong, the radius is expanding, and the total income is rising, and the volume is rising and the price is falling. Self-driving travel continues to grow structurally high – Juncheng data also shows a year-on-year increase in domestic car rental and self-driving bookings during this year's May Day holiday 40 % 40 % 40%40 \% .
Dopamine
体验式 "多巴胺"消费品类继疃胜出（如：演唱会、音乐节、餐饮、电影)，商品消费表现平平。
Experiential "dopamine" consumer goods (e.g., concerts, music festivals, restaurants, movies) followed the winners, and the performance of merchandise consumption was flat.
Rejuvenation
携程数据五一假期 “00后” 同比增长2成，占比达到 31 % 31 % 31%31 \% 。出行群体年轻化带动演唱令及音乐节搜索热度同比增长超 10 倍。
Ctrip's data during the May Day holiday "post-00s" increased by 2% year-on-year, accounting for 31 % 31 % 31%31 \% . The younger travel group has driven the search popularity of singing orders and music festivals to increase by more than 10 times year-on-year.

越远方 け多巴腚 † 年轻化 The farther away the more you dopa, the † younger

车市动态 Auto market dynamics

新能源渗透率即将看向 5 成 The penetration rate of new energy is about to look at 5%.

2新能源的高增速由增程车接棒 2. The high growth rate of new energy is taken over by extended-range vehicles

2024年5月1日-5月12日中国市场豪华品牌销量
Sales of luxury brands in the Chinese market from May 1 to May 12, 2024
潮 號 阆
01 (2) 卒弛 Stroke 204万 2.04 million
02 (3) 主马 The main horse 1.77 万 17,700
03 am 㭧迪 㭧 Di 1.77 万 17,700
04 r r r\boldsymbol{r} 得断拉 Gotta break pull 1.69万 16,900
05 4 理想 ideal 1.08 万 10,800
06 0 0 00 问界 Ask the boundary 081万 0.81 million
07 ■ 极良 Excellent 0.56万 05,600
08 ค 蘢来 Come on 0.56万 05,600
09 (c) 雷克萨斯 Lexus 0.42万 04,200
10 O 沃尔㖘 Wall 038万 0.38 million
潮 號 阆 01 (2) 卒弛 204万 02 (3) 主马 1.77 万 03 am 㭧迪 1.77 万 04 r 得断拉 1.69万 05 4 理想 1.08 万 06 0 问界 081万 07 ■ 极良 0.56万 08 ค 蘢来 0.56万 09 (c) 雷克萨斯 0.42万 10 O 沃尔㖘 038万| 潮 | 號 | | 阆 | | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | 01 | (2) | 卒弛 | 204万 | | 02 | (3) | 主马 | 1.77 万 | | 03 | am | 㭧迪 | 1.77 万 | | 04 | $\boldsymbol{r}$ | 得断拉 | 1.69万 | | 05 | 4 | 理想 | 1.08 万 | | 06 | $0$ | 问界 | 081万 | | 07 | ■ | 极良 | 0.56万 | | 08 | ค | 蘢来 | 0.56万 | | 09 | (c) | 雷克萨斯 | 0.42万 | | 10 | O | 沃尔㖘 | 038万 |
中国国高端车市被德系油车、中国新能源品牌（问界&理想增程）以及特斯拉电车所瓜分。
China's high-end auto market is divided between German gasoline cars, Chinese new energy brands (Wenjie & Ideal Range Extension) and Tesla Tram.
在海外，纯电车遭遇政府税收压力挤压（电力交通税收大幅低于油车税收，美国和欧州在财政赤字不断扩大的税收压力之下，趋向于补贴退坡和税收增加。在欧美市场，电车的增速衰减明显。
Overseas, EVs are under pressure from government tax revenues (taxes on electric transportation are significantly lower than taxes on gasoline vehicles, and the United States and Europe tend to decline subsidies and increase tax revenues under the tax pressure of widening fiscal deficits). In the European and American markets, the growth rate of trams has declined significantly.
中国新能源车的高增速由增程车接棒，例如：均价 60 万＋的问界M9，周销量2911辆，其中增程 2600辆，纯电仅为 300 辆。在50万以上的豪华车中，燃油和增程是主要的动力模式。
The high growth rate of China's new energy vehicles is taken over by extended-range vehicles, such as the Wenjie M9 with an average price of 600,000+, with weekly sales of 2,911 units, of which 2,600 are extended-range vehicles and only 300 pure electric vehicles. In luxury cars over 500,000, fuel and range extension are the main power modes.
日系在15万以下低端车市场，遭遇比亚迪和众多新势力的挤压式出清。很多经销商倒闭离场。
In the low-end car market below 150,000 yuan, Japanese companies have been squeezed out by BYD and many new forces. Many dealers went out of business.

产业动态 Industry dynamics

3 超充联盟成型，东西方交通用能分野 3 The supercharging alliance has been formed, and the energy consumption of the East and the West is divided

华为数字能源携手车企、充电运营商及产业伙伴成立 “超充联盟”，当前超充联盟已有 11 家首批车企加入，分别是阿维塔、北汽、比亚迪、长城、广汽、合众、江淮、理想、奇瑞、赛力斯。
Huawei Digital Power has joined hands with car companies, charging operators, and industry partners to establish the "Supercharging Alliance", which has been joined by 11 of the first batch of car companies, namely AVATAR, BAIC, BYD, Great Wall, GAC, Hezhong, JAC, Li Motor, Chery, and Cialis.
伴随电动车进一步深入发展, 需要高压电网的基建配套, 以及储能解决方案和电网的智能化改造。中国政府致力新能源车上路的充电网络建设、智能驾驶的车联网、万物互联的智慧城市的进一步资源倾斜和政策扶持。西方社会在电网基建上出现掣时，可重点关注TSL的美国充电团队的组织架构调整。
With the further development of electric vehicles, the infrastructure of high-voltage power grids, as well as energy storage solutions and intelligent transformation of power grids are required. The Chinese government is committed to further resource tilting and policy support for the construction of charging networks for new energy vehicles on the road, the Internet of Vehicles for intelligent driving, and the smart cities for the Internet of Everything. When Western society is struggling with grid infrastructure, we can focus on the organizational structure of TSL's United States charging team.

4 下沉咖啡市场，本土品牌崛起 4 Sinking the coffee market and the rise of local brands

Fig. 5: China’s coffee market competition landscape Gross merchandise value from online order (%)
瑞幸的增长主要是由它向二三线城市的扩张推动的，而星巴克在过去两年中在这一领域的增长有限。国产咖啡厂商的优势主要来自低价战略，此外迅速适应当地消费者的偏好和快速推出产品也是实现增长的关键因素，例如：瑞幸的旗舰饮料"生椰子拿铁"和"茅台拿铁"。
Luckin's growth has been largely driven by its expansion into second- and third-tier cities, while Starbucks has had limited growth in this area over the past two years. The advantage of domestic coffee producers is mainly due to the low price strategy, but the rapid adaptation to the preferences of local consumers and the rapid launch of products are also key factors in achieving growth, such as Luckin's flagship drinks "Raw Coconut Latte" and "Moutai Latte".
2024年第一季度，星巴克在中国的收入同比下降 7.6 % 7.6 % 7.6%7.6 \% (24财年第二季度)与 2023年17.7%的增长相比大幅下降。与此同时，瑞幸咖啡在2023年的年销售额超过了星巴克，成为亚洲最大的咖啡连锁店，第一季度的收入同比增长率为 41.5 % 41.5 % 41.5%41.5 \% ，低于 23 年的 87.3 % 87.3 % 87.3%87.3 \% 。
In the first quarter of 2024, Starbucks' revenue in China decreased year-over-year 7.6 % 7.6 % 7.6%7.6 \% (Q2 FY24) significantly compared to the 17.7% growth in 2023. Luckin Coffee, meanwhile, surpassed Starbucks in annual sales in 2023 to become the largest coffee chain in Asia, with a year-over-year revenue growth rate 41.5 % 41.5 % 41.5%41.5 \% of , lower than in '23 87.3 % 87.3 % 87.3%87.3 \% .
Fig. 3: Luckin’s rapid footprint expansion Number of store in operation
信源_BigOne Lab, Nomura Global Economics
Source_BigOne Lab, Nomura Global Economics