Just days ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics opening ceremony on Friday, Nielsen’s Gracenote releases its final Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Games. Considering available results data from key global and continental competitions since the Tokyo 2020 Summer Games, Gracenote has projected gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad.
尼尔森（Nielsen）的GraceNote在2024年的2024年奥运会开幕典礼前几天，尼尔森（Nielsen）的GraceNote发布了2024年奥运会的最后一枚虚拟奖牌表（VMT）预测。考虑到自2020年夏季奥运会以来的主要全球和大陆比赛的可用结果数据，GraceNote预计参加了XXXIII Olympiad的比赛中，参加了参加参与国家的黄金，白银和铜牌计数。
Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, there is limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the National Olympic Committees’ potential Olympic performance based on the data that we have.
自2022年2月以来，几乎所有俄罗斯和白俄罗斯竞争对手都没有参加国际比赛。任何参加巴黎2024年没有结果的人都无法准确地预测。但是，这些运动员的参与有限，我们希望通过我们拥有的数据，虚拟奖牌表是国家奥运会委员会潜在的奥运会绩效的通常准确反映。
Snapshot 快照
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (112). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
GraceNote的VMT预测预测，美国将在巴黎2024年赢得最多的奖牌（112）。如果美国队达到了这一期望，它将标志着球队连续第八次在最后一场夏季比赛奖牌桌的位置。
China is projected to finish second on total medals but could challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 86 medals currently forecast for China would be three fewer than the country’s total of 89 in Tokyo three years ago. The 34 gold medals forecast would be four down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.
中国预计将在奖牌总数上排名第二，但可能会挑战美国在金牌榜上的第一名。目前预计中国将获得 86 块奖牌，比三年前东京奥运会上中国获得的 89 块奖牌总数少了三块。预计获得的 34 枚金牌将比三年前中国的 38 枚金牌减少四枚。
Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting one British medal fewer than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 17 golds in Paris.
预计英国队的表现也将与上届奥运会类似，Gracenote VMT 预测英国队将比东京奥运会的 64 枚奖牌少一枚。不过，由于英国队预计将在巴黎赢得 17 枚金牌，因此金牌数可能会大幅下降。
Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its final forecast total of 27 gold medals would be not far short of France’s total number of medals at the last Olympics, if it is achieved.
与东京奥运会上获得的 33 枚奖牌总数相比，东道国法国的奖牌总数应该会大幅增加。虚拟奖牌榜显示，法国在金牌榜上排名第三，仅次于美国和中国，如果实现的话，其最终预测的27枚金牌将与法国在上届奥运会上的奖牌总数相差不远。
Australia is expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 54 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 24 years, since winning a record 58 when hosting Sydney 2000.
澳大利亚预计将在奖牌榜上排名第五。 Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜预测，该国将获得 54 枚奖牌，这将是该国自 2000 年举办悉尼奥运会时获得创纪录的 58 枚奖牌以来 24 年来最多的奖牌数。
Russian and Belarussian athletes
俄罗斯和白俄罗斯运动员
With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for those participating as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris 2024 unless they have been competing more or less normally like, for example, the tennis players from the two countries. However, it appears that the number of competitors from these countries is severely limited in Paris and the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is therefore representing the current situation accurately given the data which we have.
自 2022 年 2 月以来，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的运动员被禁止参加几乎所有奥运会项目的国际比赛，因此不可能准确评估作为个人中立运动员参加 2024 年巴黎奥运会的潜在表现，除非他们或多或少正常参加比赛，例如，比如两国的网球运动员。然而，在巴黎，来自这些国家的参赛者数量似乎受到严格限制，因此根据我们掌握的数据，Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜准确地反映了当前情况。
The top-five medal winning countries
奖牌榜前五名国家
United States 美国
(Paris 2024 projection: 112 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
（2024 年巴黎奥运会预计： 1 枚12 枚奖牌，2020 年东京奥运会：113 枚）
The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 112 medals is similar to the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals projected in 28 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, one sport fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with just under half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.
预计美国队将再次在巴黎夏季奥运会虚拟奖牌榜上名列前茅。目前 Gracenote 预计将获得 112 枚奖牌，与美国队在 2021 年获得的奖牌总数相似。美国队在虚拟奖牌榜上预计在 28 个不同项目中获得奖牌，比该国自己创下的 29 枚奥运会纪录少了一项在东京。田径和游泳仍然是成功的关键，尽管美国近一半的奖牌预计将在这两项运动中获得。
China 中国
(Paris 2024: 86, Tokyo 2020: 89)
（巴黎 2024 年：86、东京 2020 年：89）
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Final Gracenote projections for Paris 2024 suggest that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 20 different sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 34 means that it may be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.
在东京奥运会上，中国队从里约奥运会上获得的 70 枚奖牌总数中恢复过来，这是自 2004 年以来的最低水平。Gracenote 对 2024 年巴黎奥运会的最终预测表明，中国将取得与三年前相似的表现。跳水、射击、游泳、乒乓球、艺术体操和羽毛球是中国获得奖牌的主要项目，但根据VMT的数据，有20个不同的项目都有一名中国选手排名前三。中国预计将获得34枚金牌，这意味着它可能会对美国作为巴黎奥运会金牌得主最多的地位构成威胁。
Great Britain 英国
(Paris 2024: 63, Tokyo 2020: 64)
（巴黎 2024 年：63，东京 2020：64）
The final Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Summer Olympics has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports. Gracenote’s final VMT forecast has British medal winners in 21 different sports, suggesting that this trend is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain had not won medals in at least 20 sports for over 100 years, since hosting in 1908.
2024 年巴黎奥运会最终的 Gracenote 虚拟奖牌榜显示，英国可以连续第四次在夏季奥运会上保持 60 枚或更多奖牌的获胜表现。英国在过去三届夏季奥运会上的成功是建立在至少 20 个项目的奖牌获得者之上的。 Gracenote 的最终 VMT 预测显示英国将在 21 项不同的运动项目中获得奖牌，这表明这一趋势将持续下去。在 2012 年奥运会之前，英国自 1908 年主办奥运会以来已有 100 多年没有在至少 20 个项目上获得过奖牌。
France 法国
(Paris 2024: 60, Tokyo 2020: 33)
（巴黎2024：60，东京2020：33）
Gracenote’s final forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly, nearly tripling its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are projected in 28 different sports in Paris. This would be a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France is expected to have its best Olympic Games for 124 years, since winning 115 medals when hosting in 1900.
Gracenote 的最终预测预计，主办国法国的奖牌总数将大幅增加，其金牌数量几乎是东京奥运会的三倍。法国在本世纪每届奥运会上都在 15 至 19 个不同的项目中取得了成功，但巴黎预计在 28 个不同的项目中获得奖牌。这将是法国的一项新纪录。在 2024 年巴黎奥运会上，法国有望迎来自 1900 年主办奥运会以来 124 年来最好的一届奥运会，该国赢得了 115 枚奖牌。
Australia 澳大利亚
(Paris 2024: 54 medals, Tokyo 2020: 46)
（2024年巴黎奥运会：54枚奖牌；2020年东京奥运会：46枚奖牌）
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve in Paris. Gracenote expects Australia to win over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics and more than 50 for the first time for 24 years. If Australia wins 54 medals as forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since hosting Sydney 2000. Achieving this will depend to a great extent on the success of the swimming team.
在2012年和2016年令人失望的奥运会之后，澳大利亚将在巴黎再次改善。 GraceNote预计澳大利亚在过去八个奥运会上的第六次获得40枚奖牌，而24年来首次获得超过50枚。如果澳大利亚赢得54枚奖牌作为预测，那么自举办悉尼2000年以来，这将是该国最好的奥运会表现。实现这一目标将在很大程度上取决于游泳队的成功。
Virtual Medal Table 1-10 虚拟奖牌表1-10
| NOC | Country 国家 | Gold 金子 | Silver 银 | Bronze 青铜 | Total 全部的 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States 美国 |  | 39 | 32 | 41 | 112 |
| China 中国 |  | 34 | 27 | 25 | 86 |
| Great Britain 英国 |  | 17 | 20 | 26 | 63 |
| France 法国 |  | 27 | 21 | 12 | 60 |
| Australia 澳大利亚 |  | 15 | 23 | 16 | 54 |
| Japan 日本 |  | 13 | 13 | 21 | 47 |
| Italy 意大利 |  | 11 | 19 | 16 | 46 |
| Germany 德国 |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| Netherlands 荷兰 |  | 16 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| Republic of Korea 大韩民国 |  | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
Countries Ranked 6 to 10 on the Virtual Medal Table
虚拟奖牌榜上排名 6 至 10 的国家
Japan 日本
(Paris 2024: 47, Tokyo 2020: 58)
（巴黎 2024 年：47，东京 2020：58）
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning 11 fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 13. Medals are forecast in 17 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020. However, 47 medals would represent Japan’s second best Summer Games performance, after Tokyo 2020.
在东京奥运会上打破纪录后，日本预计将达不到巴黎奥运会的表现。 Gracenote 的最终虚拟奖牌榜显示，日本队比三年前少赢得了 11 枚奖牌。日本可能获得的金牌数量预计将减少一半以上，从 27 枚减少到 13 枚。预计将在 17 个不同的项目中获得奖牌，远低于日本在 2020 年东京奥运会上创下的 21 枚奖牌的记录。然而，47 枚奖牌将代表日本的金牌数。夏季奥运会表现第二好，仅次于 2020 年东京奥运会。
Italy 意大利
(Paris 2024 projection: 46, Tokyo 2020: 40)
（巴黎 2024 年预测：46，东京 2020：40）
Italy had its best ever Olympics in Tokyo but Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table projects an even better performance at Paris 2024. Buoyed by a potential best ever performance in the pool, Italy is forecast to win a record 46 medals across an all-time best 21 different sports, beating its record of 40 medals across 19 sports in Tokyo.
意大利在东京奥运会上取得了有史以来最好的成绩，但 Gracenote 的最终虚拟奖牌榜预计 2024 年巴黎奥运会将有更好的表现。在泳池中潜在的最佳表现的鼓舞下，意大利预计将在有史以来最好的 21 枚奖牌中赢得创纪录的 46 枚奖牌打破了东京奥运会在 19 个项目上获得 40 块奖牌的记录。
Germany 德国
(Paris 2024: 35, Tokyo 2020: 37)
（巴黎 2024 年：35，东京 2020：37）
Germany’s medal total has declined at six of the seven Summer Olympics since reunification, with only London 2012 providing respite. Paris 2024 may continue that trend with Gracenote’s final Virtual Medal Table projecting 35 medals for Germany, two fewer than in Tokyo. The German team is forecast to win medals in 18 different sports, the joint second lowest since reunification, after London 2012. Germany no longer dominates any particular sport and no more than three medals for the German team are forecast by the VMT in any single sport.
自统一以来，德国在七届夏季奥运会中有六届的奖牌总数有所下降，只有 2012 年伦敦奥运会提供了喘息的机会。 2024 年巴黎奥运会可能会延续这一趋势，Gracenote 最终的虚拟奖牌榜预计德国将获得 35 枚奖牌，比东京奥运会少两枚。德国队预计将在 18 项不同的运动项目中赢得奖牌，这是继 2012 年伦敦奥运会之后德国统一以来的第二低奖牌数。德国不再在任何一项特定运动项目中占据主导地位，VMT 预测德国队在任何一项运动项目中的奖牌数不会超过三枚。
Netherlands 荷兰
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
（巴黎 2024 年：34，东京 2020：36）
Three years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris. Gracenote’s final forecast has the Dutch team breaking the country’s gold medal record of 12, set at the Sydney 2000 Olympics but just falling short of the total medal record of 36 from the same Games. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports. The 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story with Gracenote forecasting medals in 12 different sports. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports – rowing, cycling – track and athletics – which, between them, are expected to deliver half of the medals for the Netherlands.
在东京夏季奥运会上取得最佳成绩三年后，预计荷兰队将在巴黎取得类似的表现。 Gracenote 的最终预测是，荷兰队将打破 2000 年悉尼奥运会上创下的 12 枚金牌的国家纪录，但距离该届奥运会的 36 枚奖牌总数纪录仅差一点。在过去六届奥运会中，荷兰队在四届奥运会上赢得了 11 至 13 个项目的奖牌。 2024 年夏季奥运会看起来也很相似，Gracenote 预测了 12 项不同运动项目的奖牌。然而，今年的成功将主要取决于三项运动——赛艇、自行车、田径和田径——预计这三项运动将为荷兰带来一半的奖牌。
Republic of Korea 大韩民国
(Paris 2024: 26, Tokyo 2020: 20)
（巴黎 2024 年：26、东京 2020 年：20）
Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 26 medals, including nine golds, across 11 different sports. This would be Korea’s best Olympic medal winning performance since 2012 and it would put Korea back into the top-10 medal winning nations.
对于韩国来说，2020 年东京奥运会是一届令人失望的奥运会。包括 6 枚金牌在内的 20 枚奖牌都是该国自 1984 年洛杉矶奥运会上分别赢得 19 枚和 6 枚以来的最低总数。2024 年巴黎奥运会的前景看起来更好，韩国选手预计将赢得 26 枚奖牌，其中包括 9 枚金牌11 种不同的运动。这将是韩国自2012年以来在奥运会上获得的最佳奖牌表现，也将使韩国重新跻身奖牌获得国前十名之列。
Virtual Medal Table 11-20
虚拟奖牌桌11-20
| NOC | Country 国家 | Gold 金子 | Silver 银 | Bronze 青铜 | Total 全部的 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada 加拿大 |  | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| Hungary 匈牙利 |  | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| Brazil 巴西 |  | 8 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| Spain 西班牙 |  | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| Poland 波兰 |  | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| Denmark 丹麦 |  | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| Turkiye |  | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| New Zealand 新西兰 |  | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Ukraine 乌克兰 |  | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚 |  | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
Virtual Medal Table 21-30
虚拟奖牌桌 21-30
| NOC | Country 国家 | Gold 金子 | Silver 银 | Bronze 青铜 | Total 全部的 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya 肯尼亚 |  | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Sweden 瑞典 |  | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Belgium 比利时 |  | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| Georgia 乔治亚州 |  | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Uzbekistan 乌兹别克斯坦 |  | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| Switzerland 瑞士 |  | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Iran 伊朗 |  | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| Ireland 爱尔兰 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Kazakhstan 哈萨克斯坦 |  | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Jamaica 牙买加 |  | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
About Gracenote Virtual Medal Table
关于GraceNote虚拟奖牌表
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand projections and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/
GraceNote虚拟奖牌表是一个基于个人和团队的统计模型，并在以前的奥运会，世界冠军和世界杯中导致了最有可能按国家 /地区获得金，银和铜牌获得者。这些信息以易于理解的预测和无缝数据提要提供，使广播公司，媒体出版商和付费电视运营商能够在网络，移动和广播属性上提供独特的以奥林匹克为中心的故事。 https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/
About Gracenote 关于Gracenote
Gracenote is the content solutions business unit of Nielsen providing entertainment metadata, content IDs and related offerings to the world’s leading creators, distributors and platforms. Gracenote technology enables advanced content navigation and discovery capabilities ensuring consumers can easily connect to the music, TV shows, movies and sports they love while delivering powerful content analytics making complex business decisions simpler.
GraceNote是Nielsen的内容解决方案业务部门，为世界领先的创作者，分销商和平台提供娱乐元数据，内容ID和相关产品。 GraceNote技术可以实现高级内容导航和发现功能，以确保消费者可以轻松地连接到他们喜欢的音乐，电视节目，电影和体育运动，同时提供强大的内容分析，从而使复杂的业务决策变得更加简单。
About Nielsen 关于尼尔森
Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiences—now and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).
尼尔森塑造了世界媒体和内容，成为受众测量、数据和分析领域的全球领导者。通过我们对所有渠道和平台上的人员及其行为的了解，我们为客户提供独立且可操作的情报，以便他们能够与现在和未来的受众建立联系并互动。尼尔森在全球超过 55 个国家开展业务。请访问 www.nielsen.com 了解更多信息，并通过社交媒体（Twitter、LinkedIn、Facebook 和 Instagram）与我们联系。
