By Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley
作者：Vishwanath Tirupattur，摩根士丹利全球量化研究主管

Investment flows, both from and into US assets, were a key theme in our client conversations in multiple meetings across the pond last week. While many questions concerned the tax provisions under Section 899 proposed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which have since been removed, the subtext was clear – are investors, particularly foreign investors, fleeing US assets? While investors may have many reasons for rethinking allocations to any market – valuations, the growth outlook for the economy, or company earnings, among others – the narrative behind these questions centered on uncertainty from the multiple pronouncements and reversals on trade and tariff policy.
上周我们在大西洋彼岸的多场客户会议中，投资流动——无论是流入还是流出美国资产——都是一个重要话题。虽然许多问题涉及《一大美好法案》中提议的第 899 条税收条款（该条款现已被删除），但潜台词很明确——投资者，尤其是外国投资者，是否正在逃离美国资产？投资者重新考虑任何市场配置可能有多种原因——估值、经济增长前景或公司盈利等——但这些问题背后的叙述集中在贸易和关税政策多次声明与反转所带来的不确定性。

In this week’s Start, we look at recent data to assess the direction of investment flows in the context of the investment recommendations in our mid-year outlook (available to professional subs).
在本周的《Start》中，我们通过近期数据评估投资流向的趋势，并结合我们年中展望中的投资建议（仅限专业订阅者）。

Of course, the devil is always in the detail, and different data sources and frequencies across different market segments don’t always lead to the same conclusion (see here for more details).
当然，细节决定成败，不同数据来源和不同市场细分的频率并不总是得出相同的结论（更多详情见此处）。

Weekly data across global equity ETFs and mutual funds from Lipper show that international investors have been net buyers through the weeks after Liberation Day and most of May... 
Lipper 提供的全球股票 ETF 和共同基金的每周数据显示，国际投资者在解放日及五月的大部分时间里一直是净买家...

... but the pace of buying has slowed year to date versus 2024, although it remains much higher than during the same period in 2021-23.
...但今年迄今为止的买入力度较 2024 年有所放缓，尽管仍远高于 2021-23 年同期水平。

As an aside, the data show that even as foreign investors were adding to US stocks, US investors have been net sellers, suggesting that they are reallocating away from US equities. Treasury TIC data (higher quality but lower frequency) point to something similar – a slowdown in foreign demand, but not significant net selling. Data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance show that Japan net bought more US equities in 2025 than the TIC data suggest.
顺便提一下，数据显示即使外国投资者在增持美国股票，美国投资者却一直是净卖出者，这表明他们正在重新配置资产，减少持有美国股票。财政部 TIC 数据（质量更高但频率较低）也显示了类似情况——外国需求放缓，但没有显著的净卖出。日本财务省的数据表明，2025 年日本净买入的美国股票比 TIC 数据所显示的更多。

Regional allocation of global equity funds offers another window into flows. In the aggregate, the weight of US equities in global equity funds' portfolios has dropped roughly in proportion to the increase in the weight of non-US equities. However, this does not equate to net outflows from US equities. It’s worth highlighting that the decline in portfolio weights for US equities has been in line with changes in equity benchmark weights, as the market correction shrank the market cap of US equities as a share of the global equity benchmark index. The lower allocation to US equities simply reflects the fact that the US now represents a slightly smaller portion of the benchmark. Overall, we don’t find much evidence to support the narrative that foreign investors have been reallocating away from US stocks.
全球股票基金的地区配置为资金流向提供了另一个视角。总体来看，全球股票基金组合中美国股票的权重大致与非美国股票权重的增加成比例下降。然而，这并不等同于美国股票的净流出。值得强调的是，美国股票组合权重的下降与股票基准权重的变化保持一致，因为市场调整导致美国股票市值在全球股票基准指数中的占比缩小。对美国股票的较低配置仅反映了美国在基准中的比例略有减少。总体而言，我们没有发现太多证据支持外国投资者正在重新配置资产，远离美国股票的说法。

Bond funds data tell a similar story. Net fund inflows to US bond funds have been positive, albeit slower than the run rate a year ago. This should not be surprising. After all, policy rates were much higher last year before the Fed embarked on rate cuts. It’s also worth noting that net flows into non-US bond funds have been sliding, suggesting that lower policy rates are behind the slower pace of flows into bond mutual funds. Weekly data on mutual funds also show that flows to both US and non-US bonds troughed around the end of April, and both have since bounced back. The Treasury TIC data, which cover a broader swath of investors beyond mutual funds, show that foreign investors in aggregate have remained net buyers of US bonds. While debate rages on whether US government bonds remain safe havens, we do not find evidence pointing to significant flows out of US bonds.
债券基金数据也反映了类似的情况。流入美国债券基金的净资金虽然仍为正，但增速较一年前有所放缓。这并不令人意外。毕竟，去年政策利率远高于现在，随后美联储开始降息。同样值得注意的是，流入非美国债券基金的净资金一直在下降，这表明较低的政策利率是债券共同基金资金流入放缓的原因。每周的共同基金数据也显示，美国和非美国债券的资金流入在四月底左右触底，随后均有所回升。涵盖范围更广的国债 TIC 数据表明，外国投资者总体上仍是美国债券的净买家。尽管关于美国国债是否仍为避险资产的争论不断，但我们未发现有明显资金大量流出美国债券的证据。

Overall, these flows are largely consistent with the key recommendations in our outlook – US risky and risk-free assets remain attractive versus the rest of the world. While we recommend an equal-weight position in global equities, we suggest overweighting US equities. As Mike Wilson, our chief US equity strategist, notes, earnings revisions breadth is much better in the US than other regions, one of the main reasons why we prefer US equities.
总体而言，这些资金流动在很大程度上与我们展望中的关键建议保持一致——美国的风险资产和无风险资产相较于全球其他地区仍具吸引力。虽然我们建议全球股票持仓均衡配置，但我们建议超配美国股票。正如我们的首席美国股票策略师 Mike Wilson 所指出的，美国的盈利修正广度远优于其他地区，这也是我们偏好美国股票的主要原因之一。

Persistent US dollar weakness over the next 12 months was and remains a central theme in our outlook for markets. We expected USD to continue to weaken thanks to a convergence in both US rates and growth to peers. Elevated policy uncertainty strengthens our conviction. We had expected to see an increase in FX-hedging flows – hedging of USD exposures by foreign investors. While comprehensive data on currency hedging are hard to come by, the focus on hedging and hedge ratios in our client conversations convinces us that this remains top of mind for investors. Data from the Danish Central Bank suggest that the hedge ratio of US assets held by Danish insurers and pension funds increased by 5pp in April, an important signal of hedging intent by European asset managers. We anxiously await the release of the May data on July 4 to see if the thesis continues to hold.
未来 12 个月美元持续走弱一直且仍然是我们市场展望的核心主题。我们预计美元将继续走弱，原因是美国利率和经济增长与其他国家趋同。政策不确定性高企进一步增强了我们的信心。我们曾预计外汇对冲资金流会增加——即外国投资者对美元敞口的对冲。虽然全面的货币对冲数据难以获得，但我们与客户的对话中对对冲及对冲比率的关注使我们确信这仍是投资者关注的重点。丹麦中央银行的数据表明，丹麦保险公司和养老基金持有的美国资产的对冲比率在 4 月份上升了 5 个百分点，这是欧洲资产管理者对冲意图的重要信号。我们焦急地等待 7 月 4 日发布的 5 月份数据，以验证这一论点是否继续成立。

For more please see the MS Sunday Start note (available here) and Where Are Equity Flows Going? (available here) to pro subs.
更多内容请参见 MS Sunday Start 报告（可点击此处获取）和《Where Are Equity Flows Going?》（可点击此处获取），仅限专业订阅用户。